基于当量积温对寒地水稻生长季低温冷害年的判定
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摘要
基于水稻生物学性质,根据气温昼夜节律和水稻温强系数研究成果,从热量影响水稻发育的多种角度出发,设计当量积温、负当量积温、热量匹配累积指数三种水稻生长季热量表征指标,研究寒地水稻低温冷害的判识方法。采用21a滑动平均法,获得黑龙江省1971-2016年水稻生长季各热量指标的距平百分率,分析其对低温冷害的判识能力。结果表明:各热量指标距平百分率取值越低,对冷害的指示能力越高;利用加权隶属度模型构建三者综合距平百分率冷害判定模型,距平百分率>-5%为无冷害,-10%<距平百分率≤-5%为轻度冷害,-15%<距平百分率≤-10%为中度冷害,距平百分率≤-15%为重度冷害;综合距平百分率能够判识水稻生长季的低温冷害,且能反映冷害程度,对典型冷害年的判识准确率达100%;黑龙江省冷害群发性特征非常明显,如1971、1972、1976、1981、1983、1992、2002和2009年典型冷害年,不仅冷害发生区域广,且冷害程度较重;1986、1987、1989、1993、1995和2003年为轻度或局地冷害年。
Based on rice biological characteristics, circadian temperature rhythm and temperature coefficient, taking accumulated equivalent temperature, negative accumulated equivalent temperature and heat matching index as index,the identification method for cold damage year was studied. By using moving average method on 21 years, departure percent was obtained for three factors in Heilongjiang province from 1971 to 2016, and the identifiable ability was analyzed. The results showed that identification ability was stronger, when the departure percent of every factor decreased more. This identification model for cold damage based on integrative departure percent was established by using weighted membership model. When departure percent was above-5%, named as zero cold damage year, when departure percent was above-10% and below-5%, named as slight cold damage year, when departure percent was above-15% and below-10%, named as moderate cold damage year, and when departure percent was below-15%,named as severe cold damage year. Integrative departure percent could indicate cold damage during rice growing season, and could reflect different degrees of cold damage, and totally indicated typical cold damage years. Cold damage performed a feature of outbreak in Heilongjiang province, for example in 1971, 1972, 1976, 1981, 1983,1992 and 2009. In these years, cold damage extended over extensive regions, and the damage degree was more severe, the other damage year was slight degree or regional damage, including 1986, 1987, 1989, 1993, 1995 and2003.
Based on rice biological characteristics, circadian temperature rhythm and temperature coefficient, taking accumulated equivalent temperature, negative accumulated equivalent temperature and heat matching index as index,the identification method for cold damage year was studied. By using moving average method on 21 years, departure percent was obtained for three factors in Heilongjiang province from 1971 to 2016, and the identifiable ability was analyzed. The results showed that identification ability was stronger, when the departure percent of every factor decreased more. This identification model for cold damage based on integrative departure percent was established by using weighted membership model. When departure percent was above-5%, named as zero cold damage year, when departure percent was above-10% and below-5%, named as slight cold damage year, when departure percent was above-15% and below-10%, named as moderate cold damage year, and when departure percent was below-15%,named as severe cold damage year. Integrative departure percent could indicate cold damage during rice growing season, and could reflect different degrees of cold damage, and totally indicated typical cold damage years. Cold damage performed a feature of outbreak in Heilongjiang province, for example in 1971, 1972, 1976, 1981, 1983,1992 and 2009. In these years, cold damage extended over extensive regions, and the damage degree was more severe, the other damage year was slight degree or regional damage, including 1986, 1987, 1989, 1993, 1995 and2003.
引文
[1]赵黎明,李明,郑殿峰,等.灌溉方式与种植密度对寒地水稻产量及光合物质生产特性的影响[J].农业工程学报,2015,31(6):159-169.Zhao L M,Li M,Zheng D F,et al.Effects of irrigation methods and rice planting densities on yield and photosynthetic characteristics of matter production in cold area[J].Transactions of the CSAE,2015,31(6):159-169.(in Chinese)
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[7]张梦婷,刘志娟,杨晓光,等.气候变化背景下中国主要作物农业气象灾害时空分布特征Ⅰ:东北春玉米延迟型冷害[J].中国农业气象,2016,37(5):599-610.Zhang M T,Liu Z J,Yang X G,et al.Temporal and spatial variations of agro-meteorological disasters of major cropsin China under the background of climate change I:delayed chilling damage of spring maize in Northeast China[J].Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology,2016,37(5):599-610.(in Chinese)
[8]程勇翔,王秀珍,郭建平,等.农作物低温冷害监测评估及预报方法评述[J].中国农业气象,2012,33(2):297-303.Cheng Y X,Wang X Z,Guo J P,et al.Methods review of monitoring,evaluation and forecasting of crop cold damage[J].Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology,2012,33(2):297-303.(in Chinese)
[9]胡春丽,李辑,林蓉,等.东北水稻障碍型低温冷害变化特征及其与关键生育期温度的关系[J].中国农业气象,2014,35(3):323-329.Hu C L,Li J,Lin R,et al.Characters of sterile-type chilling damage in rice and its relationship with temperature at key growth stage in Northeast China[J].Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology,2014,35(3):323-329.(in Chinese)
[10]陈玥熤,郭建平.新疆棉花低温冷害逐步回归预测模型[J].中国农业气象,2008,29(4):485-490.Chen Y Y,Guo J P.Stepwise regression prediction model for cotton cold damage in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region[J].Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology,2008,29(4):485-490.(in Chinese)
[11]纪仰慧,王晾晾,姜丽霞,等.黑龙江省2009年水稻障碍型冷害评估[J].气象科技,2011,39(3):374-378.Ji Y H,Wang L L,Jiang L X,et al.Evaluation of sterile-type rice cold injury in Heilongjiang Province in 2009[J].Meteorological Science and Technology,2011,39(3):374-378.(in Chinese)
[12]王秋菊,张玉龙,刘峰,等.黑龙江省水稻品种跨积温区种植的产量和品质变化[J].应用生态学报,2013,24(5):1381-1386.Wang Q J,Zhang Y L,Liu F,et al.Changes of rice yield and quality in different accumulated temperature zones in Heilongjiang province of Northeast China[J].Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology,2013,24(5):1381-1386.(in Chinese)
[13]檀艳静,张佳华,姚凤梅,等.中国作物低温冷害监测与模拟预报研究进展[J].生态学杂志,2013,32(7):1920-1927.Tan Y J,Zhang J H,Yao F M,et al.Monitoring and simulation forecasting on crop chilling damage in China:research progress[J].Chinese Journal of Ecology,2013,32(7):1920-1927.(in Chinese)
[14]Toriyama K,Inoue K.The effect of micrometeorological elements on sterility due to cool injury in rice plants:an application of simulation model for the prediction of canopy climate[J].Japanese Journal of Crop Science(Japan),1984,53(4):387-395.
[15]马树庆,袭祝香,马力文,等.北方水稻低温冷害指标持续适用性检验与比较[J].气象,2015,41(6):778-785.Ma S Q,Xi Z X,Ma L W,et al.Test and comparison of sustainable suitability of meteorological indicators for rice cold damages in the north of China[J].Meteorological Monthly,2015,41(6):778-785.(in Chinese)
[16]帅细强,王石立,马玉平,等.基于ORYZA2000模型的湘赣双季稻气候生产潜力[J].中国农业气象,2009,30(4):575-581.Shuai X Q,Wang S L,Ma Y P,et al.Studies on potential climate productivity of double rice in Hunan and Jiangxi provinces based on ORYZA 2000 model[J].Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology,2009,30(4):575-581.(in Chinese)
[17]张皓,申双和,史艳姝,等.上海单季晚粳稻主要生育性状的动态模拟[J].中国农业气象,2018,39(8):518-530.Zhang H,Shen S H,Shi Y Z,et al.Dynamic simulation on main growth traits of single-cropping late Japonica rice in Shanghai[J].Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology,2018,39(8):518-530.(in Chinese)
[18]帅细强,王石立,马玉平,等.基于水稻生长模型的气象影响评价和产量动态预测[J].应用气象学报,2008,19(1):71-81.Shuai X Q,Wang S L,Ma Y P,et al.Assessment of meteorologic condition effects and dynamic yield forecasting based on rice growth model[J].Quarterly Journal of Applied Meteorology,2008,19(1):71-81.(in Chinese)
[19]林恭.用"有效气温当量"估算水稻抽穗期[J].宁夏农业科技,1982,25(3):56.Lin G.Evaluation on heading period of rice with equivalent temperature[J].Ningxia Journal of Agriculture and Forestry Science and Technology,1982,25(3):56.(in Chinese)
[20]沈国权.当量积温及其应用[J].气象,1981,32(7):23-25.Shen G Q.Accumulated equivalent temperature and application[J].Meteorological Monthly,1981,32(7):23-25.(in Chinese)
[21]沈国权.影响作物发育速度的非线性温度模式[J].气象,1980,31(6):9-11.Shen G Q.Model of nonlinearity temperature on developing rate of crops[J].Meteorological Monthly,1980,31(6):9-11.(in Chinese)
[22]朱海霞,李秀芬,王萍,等.黑龙江省水稻生长季积温计算方法[J].应用气象学报,2017,28(2):247-256.Zhu H X,Li X F,Wang P,et al.Methods of accumulated temperature during rice growing stage in Heilongjiang province[J].Quarterly Journal of Applied Meteorology,2017,28(2):247-256.(in Chinese)
[23]霍治国,刘荣花,姜燕,等.QX/T81-2007小麦干旱灾害等级[S].北京:气象出版社,2007.Huo Z G,Liu R H,Jiang Y,et al.QX/T81-2007 The grade of drought disaster for wheat[S].Beijing:China Meteorological Press,2007.(in Chinese)
[24]朱海霞,陈莉,王秋京,等.1980-2009年期间黑龙江省玉米低温冷害年判定[J].灾害学,2012,27(1):44-47.Zhu H X,Chen L,Wang Q J,et al.Judgment of corn chilling damage year from 1980 to 2009 in Heilongjiang province[J].Journal of Catastrophology,2012,27(1):44-47.(in Chinese)
[25]温克刚,孙永罡.中国气象灾害大典(黑龙江卷)[M].北京:气象出版社,2007:18-28.Wen K G,Sun Y G.Records of China meteorological disaster[M].Beijing:China Meteorological Press,2007:18-28.(in Chinese)
[26]胡秀芳.2009年低温冷害对水稻影响研究分析[J].北方水稻,2010,26(3):38-40.Hu X F.Effect of cold injury in 2009 on rice and analysis[J].Reclaiming and Rice Cultivation,2010,26(3):38-40.(in Chinese)
[27]马文东.2009年低温冷害对黑龙江省垦区水稻的影响[J].种子,2012,31(10):80-81.Ma W D.The effect of chilling damage on rice in reclamation area of Heilongjiang province in 2009[J].Seed,2012,31(10):80-81.(in Chinese)
[2]彭显龙,刘洋,于彩莲,等.寒地稻田土壤氮素矿化特征的研究[J].中国农业科学,2014,47(4):702-709.Peng X L,Liu Y,Yu C L,et al.Study on the nitrogen mineralization characters of paddy soil in cold area[J].Scientia Agricultura Sinica,2014,47(4):702-709.(in Chinese)
[3]朱海霞,李秀芬,陈健,等.基于作物种植角度的黑龙江省热量资源时空格局[J].中国农学通报,2018,34(12):107-113.Zhu H X,Li X F,Chen J,et al.Spatial and temporal pattern of heat resources:based on crop planting perspective in Heilongjiang[J].Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin,2018,34(12):107-113.(in Chinese)
[4]Hiroyuki S.Earlier rice phenology as a result of climate change can increase the risk of cold damage during reproductive growth in northern Japan[J].Agriculture,Ecosystems&Environment,2011,144(1):201-207.
[5]Pearce R S.Molecular analysis of acclimation to cold[J].Plant Growth Regulation,1999,29(1-2):47-76.
[6]朱海霞,王秋京,闫平,等.孕穗抽穗期低温处理对黑龙江省主栽水稻品种结实率的影响[J].中国农业气象,2012,33(2):304-309.Zhu H X,Wang Q J,Yan P,et al.Effect of low temperature at heading stage on seed setting rate of major rice varieties in Heilongjiang province[J].Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology,2012,33(2):304-309.(in Chinese)
[7]张梦婷,刘志娟,杨晓光,等.气候变化背景下中国主要作物农业气象灾害时空分布特征Ⅰ:东北春玉米延迟型冷害[J].中国农业气象,2016,37(5):599-610.Zhang M T,Liu Z J,Yang X G,et al.Temporal and spatial variations of agro-meteorological disasters of major cropsin China under the background of climate change I:delayed chilling damage of spring maize in Northeast China[J].Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology,2016,37(5):599-610.(in Chinese)
[8]程勇翔,王秀珍,郭建平,等.农作物低温冷害监测评估及预报方法评述[J].中国农业气象,2012,33(2):297-303.Cheng Y X,Wang X Z,Guo J P,et al.Methods review of monitoring,evaluation and forecasting of crop cold damage[J].Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology,2012,33(2):297-303.(in Chinese)
[9]胡春丽,李辑,林蓉,等.东北水稻障碍型低温冷害变化特征及其与关键生育期温度的关系[J].中国农业气象,2014,35(3):323-329.Hu C L,Li J,Lin R,et al.Characters of sterile-type chilling damage in rice and its relationship with temperature at key growth stage in Northeast China[J].Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology,2014,35(3):323-329.(in Chinese)
[10]陈玥熤,郭建平.新疆棉花低温冷害逐步回归预测模型[J].中国农业气象,2008,29(4):485-490.Chen Y Y,Guo J P.Stepwise regression prediction model for cotton cold damage in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region[J].Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology,2008,29(4):485-490.(in Chinese)
[11]纪仰慧,王晾晾,姜丽霞,等.黑龙江省2009年水稻障碍型冷害评估[J].气象科技,2011,39(3):374-378.Ji Y H,Wang L L,Jiang L X,et al.Evaluation of sterile-type rice cold injury in Heilongjiang Province in 2009[J].Meteorological Science and Technology,2011,39(3):374-378.(in Chinese)
[12]王秋菊,张玉龙,刘峰,等.黑龙江省水稻品种跨积温区种植的产量和品质变化[J].应用生态学报,2013,24(5):1381-1386.Wang Q J,Zhang Y L,Liu F,et al.Changes of rice yield and quality in different accumulated temperature zones in Heilongjiang province of Northeast China[J].Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology,2013,24(5):1381-1386.(in Chinese)
[13]檀艳静,张佳华,姚凤梅,等.中国作物低温冷害监测与模拟预报研究进展[J].生态学杂志,2013,32(7):1920-1927.Tan Y J,Zhang J H,Yao F M,et al.Monitoring and simulation forecasting on crop chilling damage in China:research progress[J].Chinese Journal of Ecology,2013,32(7):1920-1927.(in Chinese)
[14]Toriyama K,Inoue K.The effect of micrometeorological elements on sterility due to cool injury in rice plants:an application of simulation model for the prediction of canopy climate[J].Japanese Journal of Crop Science(Japan),1984,53(4):387-395.
[15]马树庆,袭祝香,马力文,等.北方水稻低温冷害指标持续适用性检验与比较[J].气象,2015,41(6):778-785.Ma S Q,Xi Z X,Ma L W,et al.Test and comparison of sustainable suitability of meteorological indicators for rice cold damages in the north of China[J].Meteorological Monthly,2015,41(6):778-785.(in Chinese)
[16]帅细强,王石立,马玉平,等.基于ORYZA2000模型的湘赣双季稻气候生产潜力[J].中国农业气象,2009,30(4):575-581.Shuai X Q,Wang S L,Ma Y P,et al.Studies on potential climate productivity of double rice in Hunan and Jiangxi provinces based on ORYZA 2000 model[J].Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology,2009,30(4):575-581.(in Chinese)
[17]张皓,申双和,史艳姝,等.上海单季晚粳稻主要生育性状的动态模拟[J].中国农业气象,2018,39(8):518-530.Zhang H,Shen S H,Shi Y Z,et al.Dynamic simulation on main growth traits of single-cropping late Japonica rice in Shanghai[J].Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology,2018,39(8):518-530.(in Chinese)
[18]帅细强,王石立,马玉平,等.基于水稻生长模型的气象影响评价和产量动态预测[J].应用气象学报,2008,19(1):71-81.Shuai X Q,Wang S L,Ma Y P,et al.Assessment of meteorologic condition effects and dynamic yield forecasting based on rice growth model[J].Quarterly Journal of Applied Meteorology,2008,19(1):71-81.(in Chinese)
[19]林恭.用"有效气温当量"估算水稻抽穗期[J].宁夏农业科技,1982,25(3):56.Lin G.Evaluation on heading period of rice with equivalent temperature[J].Ningxia Journal of Agriculture and Forestry Science and Technology,1982,25(3):56.(in Chinese)
[20]沈国权.当量积温及其应用[J].气象,1981,32(7):23-25.Shen G Q.Accumulated equivalent temperature and application[J].Meteorological Monthly,1981,32(7):23-25.(in Chinese)
[21]沈国权.影响作物发育速度的非线性温度模式[J].气象,1980,31(6):9-11.Shen G Q.Model of nonlinearity temperature on developing rate of crops[J].Meteorological Monthly,1980,31(6):9-11.(in Chinese)
[22]朱海霞,李秀芬,王萍,等.黑龙江省水稻生长季积温计算方法[J].应用气象学报,2017,28(2):247-256.Zhu H X,Li X F,Wang P,et al.Methods of accumulated temperature during rice growing stage in Heilongjiang province[J].Quarterly Journal of Applied Meteorology,2017,28(2):247-256.(in Chinese)
[23]霍治国,刘荣花,姜燕,等.QX/T81-2007小麦干旱灾害等级[S].北京:气象出版社,2007.Huo Z G,Liu R H,Jiang Y,et al.QX/T81-2007 The grade of drought disaster for wheat[S].Beijing:China Meteorological Press,2007.(in Chinese)
[24]朱海霞,陈莉,王秋京,等.1980-2009年期间黑龙江省玉米低温冷害年判定[J].灾害学,2012,27(1):44-47.Zhu H X,Chen L,Wang Q J,et al.Judgment of corn chilling damage year from 1980 to 2009 in Heilongjiang province[J].Journal of Catastrophology,2012,27(1):44-47.(in Chinese)
[25]温克刚,孙永罡.中国气象灾害大典(黑龙江卷)[M].北京:气象出版社,2007:18-28.Wen K G,Sun Y G.Records of China meteorological disaster[M].Beijing:China Meteorological Press,2007:18-28.(in Chinese)
[26]胡秀芳.2009年低温冷害对水稻影响研究分析[J].北方水稻,2010,26(3):38-40.Hu X F.Effect of cold injury in 2009 on rice and analysis[J].Reclaiming and Rice Cultivation,2010,26(3):38-40.(in Chinese)
[27]马文东.2009年低温冷害对黑龙江省垦区水稻的影响[J].种子,2012,31(10):80-81.Ma W D.The effect of chilling damage on rice in reclamation area of Heilongjiang province in 2009[J].Seed,2012,31(10):80-81.(in Chinese)