公共基础设施投资能够促进就业增长吗?——基于面板双重门限模型的实证分析
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摘要
利用2003~2015年中国30个省份的面板数据,通过固定效应的面板门限模型研究公共基础设施投资对就业增长的影响,实证结果显示:在全国层面,中国公共基础设施投资对就业增长存在显著的双重门限效应,当人均公共基础设施存量未达到第一门限值0.813万元/人时,公共基础设施投资对就业增长为显著的负向效应;当人均公共基础设施存量跨过第一门限值0.813万元/人时,公共基础设施投资对就业增长产生显著的正向效应;当积累至第二门限值3.965万元/人时,公共基础设施投资对就业增长的正向促进作用下降,呈现明显的收敛效应。在区域层面,东、中、西部地区也均存在双重门限效应,其中东、中部地区的公共基础设施投资对就业增长也均呈现出负向、正向与收敛效应;西部地区在跨越第二门限值后才产生显著的正向效应,尚未表现出收敛效应。最后根据二者间的非线性双重结构变化关系,提出政策建议。
By using the panel data of China's 30 provinces and regions from 2003 to 2015,the paper studies the impact of public infrastructure investment on employment growth through panel threshold model with fixed effect. Empirical results show that in the national level,public infrastructure investment has significant double threshold effect on employment growth. When the stock of per capital public infrastructure does not reach the first threshold value of RMB 8130 Yuan per person,public infrastructure investment has a significant negative effect on employment growth;When the stock of per capital public infrastructure reaches the first threshold value of RMB 8130 Yuan per person,public infrastructure investment has a significant positive effect on employment growth; and when the stock accumulates to the second threshold value of RMB 39650 Yuan per person,the promotion function begins to decrease,which results in an obvious convergence effect.In the regional level,the double threshold effect exists both in the eastern,central and western parts of China,in which the public infrastructure investment level in the eastern and central areas has similar negative,positive and the convergence effects on employment growth. The impact in the western region does not show a significant positive effect until exceeding the second threshold value,and there is no convergence effect. Finally,the paper puts forward policies and suggestions based on the nonlinear double structural change relationship of the two.
By using the panel data of China's 30 provinces and regions from 2003 to 2015,the paper studies the impact of public infrastructure investment on employment growth through panel threshold model with fixed effect. Empirical results show that in the national level,public infrastructure investment has significant double threshold effect on employment growth. When the stock of per capital public infrastructure does not reach the first threshold value of RMB 8130 Yuan per person,public infrastructure investment has a significant negative effect on employment growth;When the stock of per capital public infrastructure reaches the first threshold value of RMB 8130 Yuan per person,public infrastructure investment has a significant positive effect on employment growth; and when the stock accumulates to the second threshold value of RMB 39650 Yuan per person,the promotion function begins to decrease,which results in an obvious convergence effect.In the regional level,the double threshold effect exists both in the eastern,central and western parts of China,in which the public infrastructure investment level in the eastern and central areas has similar negative,positive and the convergence effects on employment growth. The impact in the western region does not show a significant positive effect until exceeding the second threshold value,and there is no convergence effect. Finally,the paper puts forward policies and suggestions based on the nonlinear double structural change relationship of the two.
引文
[1]Aschauer D A.Output and Employment Effects of Public Capital[J].Public Finance&Management,1997,04(1):190-192.
[2]Demetriades P O,Mamuneas T P.Intertemporal Output and Employment Effects of Public Infrastructure Capital:Evidence from 12 OECD Economies[J].Economic Journal,2010,110(465):687-712.
[3]Daveri F,Maffezzoli M.A Numerical Approach to Fiscal Policy,Unemployment,and Growth in Europe[J].Ssrn Electronic Journal,2008,391(4):1361-1370.
[4]徐旭川,杨丽琳.公共投资就业效应的一个解释——基于CES生产函数的分析及其检验[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2006,(11):94-103.
[5]苑德宇.公共投资与区域就业变动——基于动态面板数据模型的经验分析[J].上海财经大学学报,2010,12(6):54-62.
[6]赵连阁,钟搏,王学渊.工业污染治理投资的地区就业效应研究[J].中国工业经济,2014,(5):70-82.
[7]刘超.我国基础设施投资对就业影响的理论与实证分析[D].湖南师范大学,2016.
[8]Raurich X,Amat V S.Employment and Wage Formation in A Growth Model with Pubic Capital[J].General Information,2002,19(2):34-39.
[9]Pereira,A.,Roca-Sagales.Spillover Effects of Public Capital Formation:Evidence From the Spanish Regions[J].Journal of Urban Economics,2003,54(1):238-256.
[10]Kamps C.The Dynamic Effects of Public Capital:VAR Evidence for 22 OECD Countries[J].International Tax&Public Finance,2005,12(4):533-558.
[11]刘文,陈秋璇,尹宗成.中国固定资产投资就业效应的实证分析——基于东、中、西部1993—2012年省际面板数据[J].重庆工商大学学报:自然科学版,2014,31(12):27-33.
[12]Hansen,B.E.Inference When A Nuisance Parameter is Not Identified under the Null Hypothesis[J].Journal of Econometrics,1996,64(2):413–430.
[13]Hansen,B.E.Threshold Effects in Non-Dynamic Panels:Estimation,Testing,and Inference[J].Journal of Econometrics,1999,93(2):345–368.
[14]王小鲁,樊纲,等,中国经济增长的可持续性——跨世纪的回顾与展望[M].北京:经济科学出版社,2000.
[15]张军,吴桂英,张吉鹏.中国省际物质资本存量估算:1952—2000[J].经济研究,2004,(10):35-44.
[16]金戈.中国基础设施资本存量估算[J].经济研究,2012,47(4):4-14+100.
[17]蔡昉,都阳,高文书.就业弹性、自然失业和宏观经济政策——为什么经济增长没有带来显性就业?[J].经济研究,2004,(9):18-25+47.
[18]丁从明,陈仲常.经济增长为什么没有带来就业增加?[J].南方经济,2010,(1):47-58.
[19]陆铭,欧海军.高增长与低就业:政府干预与就业弹性的经验研究[J].世界经济,2011,(12):3-31.
(1)中国地图包括中国所属的海域及所有岛礁,即:东沙群岛、西沙群岛、南沙群岛、中沙群岛的岛礁及其周边海域,以及钓鱼岛及其附属岛屿。
(1)按照国家统计局的划分标准:东部地区包括北京、天津、河北、辽宁、上海、江苏、浙江、福建、山东、广东、海南11 个省份,中部地区包括山西、内蒙古、吉林、黑龙江、安徽、江西、河南、湖北、湖南9个省份,西部地区包括重庆、四川、贵州、云南、广西、西藏、陕西、甘肃、青海、宁夏、新疆11个省份。
[2]Demetriades P O,Mamuneas T P.Intertemporal Output and Employment Effects of Public Infrastructure Capital:Evidence from 12 OECD Economies[J].Economic Journal,2010,110(465):687-712.
[3]Daveri F,Maffezzoli M.A Numerical Approach to Fiscal Policy,Unemployment,and Growth in Europe[J].Ssrn Electronic Journal,2008,391(4):1361-1370.
[4]徐旭川,杨丽琳.公共投资就业效应的一个解释——基于CES生产函数的分析及其检验[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2006,(11):94-103.
[5]苑德宇.公共投资与区域就业变动——基于动态面板数据模型的经验分析[J].上海财经大学学报,2010,12(6):54-62.
[6]赵连阁,钟搏,王学渊.工业污染治理投资的地区就业效应研究[J].中国工业经济,2014,(5):70-82.
[7]刘超.我国基础设施投资对就业影响的理论与实证分析[D].湖南师范大学,2016.
[8]Raurich X,Amat V S.Employment and Wage Formation in A Growth Model with Pubic Capital[J].General Information,2002,19(2):34-39.
[9]Pereira,A.,Roca-Sagales.Spillover Effects of Public Capital Formation:Evidence From the Spanish Regions[J].Journal of Urban Economics,2003,54(1):238-256.
[10]Kamps C.The Dynamic Effects of Public Capital:VAR Evidence for 22 OECD Countries[J].International Tax&Public Finance,2005,12(4):533-558.
[11]刘文,陈秋璇,尹宗成.中国固定资产投资就业效应的实证分析——基于东、中、西部1993—2012年省际面板数据[J].重庆工商大学学报:自然科学版,2014,31(12):27-33.
[12]Hansen,B.E.Inference When A Nuisance Parameter is Not Identified under the Null Hypothesis[J].Journal of Econometrics,1996,64(2):413–430.
[13]Hansen,B.E.Threshold Effects in Non-Dynamic Panels:Estimation,Testing,and Inference[J].Journal of Econometrics,1999,93(2):345–368.
[14]王小鲁,樊纲,等,中国经济增长的可持续性——跨世纪的回顾与展望[M].北京:经济科学出版社,2000.
[15]张军,吴桂英,张吉鹏.中国省际物质资本存量估算:1952—2000[J].经济研究,2004,(10):35-44.
[16]金戈.中国基础设施资本存量估算[J].经济研究,2012,47(4):4-14+100.
[17]蔡昉,都阳,高文书.就业弹性、自然失业和宏观经济政策——为什么经济增长没有带来显性就业?[J].经济研究,2004,(9):18-25+47.
[18]丁从明,陈仲常.经济增长为什么没有带来就业增加?[J].南方经济,2010,(1):47-58.
[19]陆铭,欧海军.高增长与低就业:政府干预与就业弹性的经验研究[J].世界经济,2011,(12):3-31.
(1)中国地图包括中国所属的海域及所有岛礁,即:东沙群岛、西沙群岛、南沙群岛、中沙群岛的岛礁及其周边海域,以及钓鱼岛及其附属岛屿。
(1)按照国家统计局的划分标准:东部地区包括北京、天津、河北、辽宁、上海、江苏、浙江、福建、山东、广东、海南11 个省份,中部地区包括山西、内蒙古、吉林、黑龙江、安徽、江西、河南、湖北、湖南9个省份,西部地区包括重庆、四川、贵州、云南、广西、西藏、陕西、甘肃、青海、宁夏、新疆11个省份。