赣南主汛期降水趋势与预测
|
摘要
以赣南主汛期(4-6月)降水为研究对象,采用1951-2017年气候因子指数与降水数据,运用线性趋势法、Mann-Kendall检验法分析了赣南主汛期降水的趋势特征,认为赣南主汛期降水存在减小的趋势,倾向率约为-17mm/10a,赣南主汛期降水在20世纪80年代末至今下降趋势显著;在赣南主汛期降水与前期气候因子指数、前期降水相关普查的基础上,利用多元逐步回归方法建立了赣南主汛期降水长期趋势预测模型,经检验该模型具有一定的可靠性,提升了防洪减灾工作的主动性.
According to 1951～2017 year climate factor indexes and precipitation data,this paper takes precipitation of the major flood season(April to June)as research subject,use linear trend method and Mann-Kendall test method to analyze precipitation trend in the major flood season of south Jiangxi,we conclude that precipitation in the major flood season of south Jiangxi is decreasing with a tendency rate of 17 mm/10 a in the long run,an evident downtrend has been happening since the end of 1980 s. A census on the relationship between precipitation in the major flood season of south Jiangxi and pre climate factor indexes or pre precipitation has been conducted,then we established a long term trend prediction model for precipitation in the major flood season of south Jiangxi. We have verified that the model is reliable.This model can help us make a good preparation for flood control and disaster alleviation.
According to 1951～2017 year climate factor indexes and precipitation data,this paper takes precipitation of the major flood season(April to June)as research subject,use linear trend method and Mann-Kendall test method to analyze precipitation trend in the major flood season of south Jiangxi,we conclude that precipitation in the major flood season of south Jiangxi is decreasing with a tendency rate of 17 mm/10 a in the long run,an evident downtrend has been happening since the end of 1980 s. A census on the relationship between precipitation in the major flood season of south Jiangxi and pre climate factor indexes or pre precipitation has been conducted,then we established a long term trend prediction model for precipitation in the major flood season of south Jiangxi. We have verified that the model is reliable.This model can help us make a good preparation for flood control and disaster alleviation.
引文
[1]陈永林,谢炳庚,曹思沁.近61年来赣州降水量变化特征及趋势[J].南水北调与水利科技,2014(5):104~108.
[2]陈龙,罗蔚.赣南地区径流特征及变化趋势分析[J].人民珠江,2017,38(9):29~33.
[3]吴丹瑞,吴安琪,何新玥,等.赣南地区近58年来极端气候变化趋势分析[J].长江科学院院报,2017,34(1):24~29.
[4]郭慧,张存杰,董安祥,等.用多元回归和EOF方法预报西北地区东部9~10月降水趋势[J].甘肃气象,1998(03):15~18.
[5]孙海滨,高涛.大气环流指数和海温对呼伦贝尔地区年降水预测的指示意义[J].内蒙古气象,2012(02):5~10.
[6]赵中军,刘善亮,游大鸣,等.偏最小二乘回归模型在辽宁汛期降水预测中的应用[J].干旱气象,2015,33(06):1038~1044.
[7]张学仁,栾敏霞.逐步回归方法在汛期降水预报中的应用[J].山东气象,1992(02):30~32.
[8]陈创买,周文.广东灾害性气候的分析和预测研究[M].广州:中山大学出版社,1999,1~30.
[9]彭端,黄天文,郭媚媚,等.用逐步回归模型预测肇庆市汛期降水[J].广东气象,2005(02):16~17+20.
[10]陈德花,陈创买,周学鸣,等.福建汛期降水主分量逐步回归预测模型研究[J].气象,2013,39(09):1190~1196.
[11]孙素琴,胡菊芳,姚俊萌.江西省天气、气候特点及其影响(2016年4-6月)[J].气象与减灾研究,2016,39(3):240-240.
[12]魏凤英.现代气候统计诊断与预测技术(第2版)[M].北京:气象出版社,2007.
[2]陈龙,罗蔚.赣南地区径流特征及变化趋势分析[J].人民珠江,2017,38(9):29~33.
[3]吴丹瑞,吴安琪,何新玥,等.赣南地区近58年来极端气候变化趋势分析[J].长江科学院院报,2017,34(1):24~29.
[4]郭慧,张存杰,董安祥,等.用多元回归和EOF方法预报西北地区东部9~10月降水趋势[J].甘肃气象,1998(03):15~18.
[5]孙海滨,高涛.大气环流指数和海温对呼伦贝尔地区年降水预测的指示意义[J].内蒙古气象,2012(02):5~10.
[6]赵中军,刘善亮,游大鸣,等.偏最小二乘回归模型在辽宁汛期降水预测中的应用[J].干旱气象,2015,33(06):1038~1044.
[7]张学仁,栾敏霞.逐步回归方法在汛期降水预报中的应用[J].山东气象,1992(02):30~32.
[8]陈创买,周文.广东灾害性气候的分析和预测研究[M].广州:中山大学出版社,1999,1~30.
[9]彭端,黄天文,郭媚媚,等.用逐步回归模型预测肇庆市汛期降水[J].广东气象,2005(02):16~17+20.
[10]陈德花,陈创买,周学鸣,等.福建汛期降水主分量逐步回归预测模型研究[J].气象,2013,39(09):1190~1196.
[11]孙素琴,胡菊芳,姚俊萌.江西省天气、气候特点及其影响(2016年4-6月)[J].气象与减灾研究,2016,39(3):240-240.
[12]魏凤英.现代气候统计诊断与预测技术(第2版)[M].北京:气象出版社,2007.