强震对大地震发生率的影响研究及在鲜水河断裂带的应用
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摘要
根据弹性回跳理论,有些断层上的大地震复发具有准周期性.强震的发生会对断层上大地震的复发周期产生影响.利用布朗过程时间(BPT)模型能够定量计算出一次强震对同一断层上大地震复发的延后时间.本文对断层上的强震对大地震发生率的改变量进行了研究,并以鲜水河断裂的几次地震为例,将由BPT模型计算的强震对大地震发生率的改变量与由库仑破裂应力计算的结果进行了比较.本文的研究表明,对于强震对大地震发生时间的延后幅度,使用BPT模型和库仑破裂模型计算的结果差别不大.周边强震对断层状态的加载使大地震复发时间的提前幅度可由BPT模型和库仑破裂模型计算,模型计算结果与现实震例相符.2014年11月22日康定M6.3级和M5.8级地震使鲜水河断裂带乾宁—康定段的大地震复发期望时间延后了36年,使磨西断裂的大地震复发期望时间提前了9年,从公元2086年提前至公元2077年.
The recurrence of major earthquakes on some faults is quasi-periodic according to elastic rebound theory.The delay amount of the major earthquake recurrence time due to a strong earthquake can be quantitatively calculated by Brownian Passage-Time(BPT)model.In this paper,we research the change amount of major earthquake due to strong earthquake,and compare the results calculated by BPT model and Coulomb model with several earthquake on Xianshuihe Fault.This paper show that strong earthquake can delay the recurrence of major earthquake on the same fault.The delay amounts calculated by BPT model and Coulomb model respectively are similar.Strong earthquakes may advance the state of nearby faults and advance the recurrence of major earthquakes there.The advance amount can be calculated by BPT model and Coulomb model.The advance amount calculated by BPT model conforms actual earthquake cases.The M6.3and M5.8earthquakes on November 22 nd,2014,result in a delay of 36 years ofmajor earthquake recurrence on Qianning-Kangding Fault,and an advance of 9years on Moxi Fault,from 2086 AD to 2077 AD.
The recurrence of major earthquakes on some faults is quasi-periodic according to elastic rebound theory.The delay amount of the major earthquake recurrence time due to a strong earthquake can be quantitatively calculated by Brownian Passage-Time(BPT)model.In this paper,we research the change amount of major earthquake due to strong earthquake,and compare the results calculated by BPT model and Coulomb model with several earthquake on Xianshuihe Fault.This paper show that strong earthquake can delay the recurrence of major earthquake on the same fault.The delay amounts calculated by BPT model and Coulomb model respectively are similar.Strong earthquakes may advance the state of nearby faults and advance the recurrence of major earthquakes there.The advance amount can be calculated by BPT model and Coulomb model.The advance amount calculated by BPT model conforms actual earthquake cases.The M6.3and M5.8earthquakes on November 22 nd,2014,result in a delay of 36 years ofmajor earthquake recurrence on Qianning-Kangding Fault,and an advance of 9years on Moxi Fault,from 2086 AD to 2077 AD.
引文
Dieterich J.1994.A constitutive law for rate of earthquake production and its application to earthquake clustering.Journal of Geology Research,99(B2):2601-2618.
Fang Y,Zhang J,Jiang Z S,et al.2015.Movement characteristics of the northwest segment of the Xianshuihe fault zone derived from cross-fault deformation data.Chinese J.Geophys.(in Chinese),58(5):1645-1653,doi:10.6038/cjg20150516.
Guo X.2014.Stochastic Characteristic-slip model and its application method[Ph.D.thesis](in Chinese).Beijing:Institute of Geophysics,China Earthquake Administration.
Hanks T C,Kanamori H.1979.A moment-magnitude scale.Journal of Geophysical Research,84(B5):2348-2350.
Jaeger J C,Cook N G W.1969.Fundamentals of Rock Mechanics.London:Methuen.
Li L J,Yao X,Zhang Y S,et al.2015.The extraction of the nearfield deformation features along the faulted zone based on PS-In SAR survey.Geological Bulletin of China(in Chinese),34(1):217-228.
Liu B Y,Shi B P,Lei J S.2013.Effect of Wenchuan earthquake on probabilities of earthquake occurrence of Lushan and surrounding faults.Acta Seismologica Sinica(in Chinese),35(5):642-651.
Ma K F,Chan C H,Stein R S.2005.Response of seismicity to Coulomb stress triggers and shadows of the 1999 Mw=7.6ChiChi Taiwan,earthquake.Journal of Geophysical Research,110:B05S19.
Matthews M V,Ellsworth W L,Reasenberg P A.2002.A Brownian model for recurrent earthquakes.Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America,92(6):2233-2250.
Papadimitriou E,Wen X Z,Karakostas V,et al.2004.Earthquake triggering along the Xianshuihe fault zone of western Sichuan,China.Pure and Applied Geophysics,161(8):1683-1707.
Parsons T,Ji C,Kirby E.2008.Stress changes from the 2008Wenchuan earthquake and increased hazard in the Sichuan basin.Nature,454(7203):509-510.
Reid H E.1910.The mechanics of the earthquake.The California Earthquake of April 18,1906:Report of the State Earthquake Investigation Commission.Carnegie Institution of Washington Publication.
Schwartz D P,Coppersmith K J.1984.Fault behavior and characteristic earthquakes:Examples from the Wasatch and San Andreas Fault Zones.Journal of Geophysical Research Solid Earth,89(B7):5681-5698.
Shimazaki K,Nakata T.1980.Time-predictable recurrence model for large earthquakes.Geophysical Research Letters,7(4):279-282.
Stein R S,King G C P,Lin J.1994.Stress triggering of the 1994M=6.7Northridge,California,earthquake by its predecessors.Science,265(5177):1432-1435.
Stein R S,Barka A A,Dieterich J H.1997.Progressive failure on the North Anatolian fault since 1939 by earthquake stress triggering.Geophysical Journal International,128(3):594-604.
Stein R S.1999.The role of stress transfer in earthquake occurrence.Nature,402(6762):605-609.
Su Q,Yang Y L,Wang L,et al.2012.Study on the strong earthquake predictive indexes from the fault-crossing observation data of mobile crustal deformation measurement along the Xianshuihe faults.Earthquake Research in Sichuan(in Chinese),(4):10-17.
Toda S,Stein R S,Reasenberg P A,et al.1998.Stress transferred by the 1995 Mw=6.9Kobe,Japan,shock:Effect on aftershocks and future earthquake probabilities.Journal of Geophysical Research,103(10):24543-24565.
Toda S,Stein R S.2002.Response of the San Andreas fault to the1983Coalinga-Nuez earthquakes:An application of interactionbased probabilities for Parkfield.Journal of Geophysical Research,107(B6):ESE 6-1-ESE 6-16.
Toda S,Stein R S.2003.Toggling of seismicity by the 1997Kagoshima earthquake couplet:A demonstration of timedependent stress transfer.Journal of Geophysical Research,108(B12):2567.
Toda S,Stein R S,Richards-Dinger K,et al.2005.Forecasting the evolution of seismicity in southern California:Animations built on earthquake stress transfer.Journal of Geophysical Research,110:B05S16.
Toda S,Lin J,Meghraoui M,et al.2008.12 May 2008 M=7.9Wenchuan,China,earthquake calculated to increase failure stress and seismicity rate on three major fault systems.Geophysical Research Letters,35:L17305.
Toda S,Stein R S,Sevilgen V,et al.2011.Coulomb 3.3Graphicrich deformation and stress-change software for earthquake,tectonic,and volcano research and teaching-user guide.U.S.Geological Survey Open-File Report 2011-1060,63p.,available at http:∥pubs.usgs.gov/of/2011/1060/.
Wang H,Wright T J,Biggs J.2009.Interseismic slip rate of the northwestern Xianshuihe fault from InSAR data.Geophysical Research Letters,36(3):L03302.
Wells D L,Coppersmith K J.1994.New empirical relationships among magnitude,rupture length,rupture width,rupture area,and surface displacement.Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America,84(4):974-1002.
Wen X Z.2000.Character of rupture segmentation of the XianshuiheAnninghe-Zemuhe fault zone,Western Sichuan.Seismology and Geology(in Chinese),22(3):239-249.
Wensnousky S G.1986.Earthquakes,quaternary faults,and seismic hazard in California.Journal of Geophysical Research,91(B12):12587-12631.
Wu P P,Li Z,Li D H,et al.2014.Numerical simulation of stress evolution on Xianshuihe Fault based on contact element model.Progress in Geophysics(in Chinese),29(5):2084-2091,doi:10.6038/pg20140514.
Xu J.2013.Tectonic loading and the interaction among the large earthquakes on Xianshuihe fault[Master′s degree](in Chinese).Beijing:Institute of Seismic Science,China Earthquake Administration.
Xu J,Shao Z G,Ma H S,et al.2013.Evolution of Coulomb stress and stress interaction among strong earthquakes along the Xianshuihe fault zone.Chinese J.Geophys.(in Chinese),56(4):1146-1158,doi:10.6038/cjg20130410.
Yi G X,Long F,Wen X Z,et al.2015.Seismogenic structure of the M6.3 Kangding earthquake sequence on 22Nov.2014,Southwestern China.Chinese J.Geophys.(in Chinese),58(4):1205-1219,doi:10.6038/cjg20150410.
Zhang Q W,Zhang P Z,Wang C,et al.2003.Earthquake triggering and delaying caused by fault interaction on Xianshuihe fault belt,southwestern China.Acta Seismologica Sinica(in Chinese),25(2):143-153.
Zhang X,Tang H T,Li R S,et al.2012.Research on activity features of Xianshuihe fault and its relationship with great earthquakes based upon grey relation degree method.Journal of Seismological Research(in Chinese),35(4):500-505.
Zhou H L,Allen C R,Kanamori H.1983a.Rupture complexity of the 1970Tonghai and 1973Luhuo earthquakes,China,from P-Wave inversion,and relationship to surface faulting.Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America,73(6A):1585-1597.
Zhou H L,Liu H L,Kanamori H.1983b.Source processes of large earthquakes along the Xianshuihe fault in southwestern China.Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America,73(2):537-551.
Zhou R J,He Y L,Huang Z Z,et al.2001.The slip rate and strong earthquake recurrence interval on the Qianning-Kangding segment of the Xianshuihe fault zone.Acta Seismologica Sinica(in Chinese),23(3):250-261.
方颖,张晶,江在森等.2015.用跨断层形变资料分析鲜水河断裂西北段的运动特征.地球物理学报,58(5):1645-1653,doi:10.6038/cjg20150516.
郭星.2014.强震复发的随机特征滑动模型及其应用方法研究[博士论文].北京:中国地震局地球物理研究所.
李凌婧,姚鑫,张永双等.2015.基于PS-InSAR技术的断裂带近场变形特征提取.地质通报,34(1):217-228.
刘博研,史保平,雷建设.2013.汶川地震对芦山地震及周边断层发震概率的影响.地震学报,35(5):642-651.
苏琴,杨永林,王兰等.2012.鲜水河断裂带跨断层形变中短期强震预测指标研究.四川地震,(4):10-17.
王辉,刘杰,石耀霖等.2008.鲜水河断裂带强震相互作用的动力学模拟研究.中国科学D辑:地球科学,38(7):808-818.
闻学泽.2000.四川西部鲜水河-安宁河-则木河断裂带的地震破裂分段特征.地震地质,22(3):239-249.
吴萍萍,李振,李大虎等.2014.基于ANSYS接触单元模型的鲜水河断裂带库仑应力演化数值模拟.地球物理学进展,29(5):2084-2091,doi:10.6038/pg20140514.
徐晶.2013.鲜水河断裂带的构造应力加载与强震间相互影响研究[硕士论文].北京:中国地震局地震预测研究所.
徐晶,邵志刚,马宏生等.2013.鲜水河断裂带库仑应力演化与强震间关系.地球物理学报,56(4):1146-1158,doi:10.6038/cjg20130410.
易桂喜,龙锋,闻学泽等.2015.2014年11月22日康定M6.3级地震序列发震构造分析.地球物理学报,58(4):1204-1219,doi:10.6038/cjg20150410.
张秋文,张培震,王乘等.2003.鲜水河断裂带断层间相互作用的触震与缓震效应.地震学报,25(2):143-153.
张希,唐红涛,李瑞莎等.2012.基于灰色关联度的鲜水河断裂活动特性与大震关系研究.地震研究,35(4):500-505.
周荣军,何玉林,黄祖智等.2001.鲜水河断裂带乾宁-康定段的滑动速率与强震复发间隔.地震学报,23(3):250-261.
Fang Y,Zhang J,Jiang Z S,et al.2015.Movement characteristics of the northwest segment of the Xianshuihe fault zone derived from cross-fault deformation data.Chinese J.Geophys.(in Chinese),58(5):1645-1653,doi:10.6038/cjg20150516.
Guo X.2014.Stochastic Characteristic-slip model and its application method[Ph.D.thesis](in Chinese).Beijing:Institute of Geophysics,China Earthquake Administration.
Hanks T C,Kanamori H.1979.A moment-magnitude scale.Journal of Geophysical Research,84(B5):2348-2350.
Jaeger J C,Cook N G W.1969.Fundamentals of Rock Mechanics.London:Methuen.
Li L J,Yao X,Zhang Y S,et al.2015.The extraction of the nearfield deformation features along the faulted zone based on PS-In SAR survey.Geological Bulletin of China(in Chinese),34(1):217-228.
Liu B Y,Shi B P,Lei J S.2013.Effect of Wenchuan earthquake on probabilities of earthquake occurrence of Lushan and surrounding faults.Acta Seismologica Sinica(in Chinese),35(5):642-651.
Ma K F,Chan C H,Stein R S.2005.Response of seismicity to Coulomb stress triggers and shadows of the 1999 Mw=7.6ChiChi Taiwan,earthquake.Journal of Geophysical Research,110:B05S19.
Matthews M V,Ellsworth W L,Reasenberg P A.2002.A Brownian model for recurrent earthquakes.Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America,92(6):2233-2250.
Papadimitriou E,Wen X Z,Karakostas V,et al.2004.Earthquake triggering along the Xianshuihe fault zone of western Sichuan,China.Pure and Applied Geophysics,161(8):1683-1707.
Parsons T,Ji C,Kirby E.2008.Stress changes from the 2008Wenchuan earthquake and increased hazard in the Sichuan basin.Nature,454(7203):509-510.
Reid H E.1910.The mechanics of the earthquake.The California Earthquake of April 18,1906:Report of the State Earthquake Investigation Commission.Carnegie Institution of Washington Publication.
Schwartz D P,Coppersmith K J.1984.Fault behavior and characteristic earthquakes:Examples from the Wasatch and San Andreas Fault Zones.Journal of Geophysical Research Solid Earth,89(B7):5681-5698.
Shimazaki K,Nakata T.1980.Time-predictable recurrence model for large earthquakes.Geophysical Research Letters,7(4):279-282.
Stein R S,King G C P,Lin J.1994.Stress triggering of the 1994M=6.7Northridge,California,earthquake by its predecessors.Science,265(5177):1432-1435.
Stein R S,Barka A A,Dieterich J H.1997.Progressive failure on the North Anatolian fault since 1939 by earthquake stress triggering.Geophysical Journal International,128(3):594-604.
Stein R S.1999.The role of stress transfer in earthquake occurrence.Nature,402(6762):605-609.
Su Q,Yang Y L,Wang L,et al.2012.Study on the strong earthquake predictive indexes from the fault-crossing observation data of mobile crustal deformation measurement along the Xianshuihe faults.Earthquake Research in Sichuan(in Chinese),(4):10-17.
Toda S,Stein R S,Reasenberg P A,et al.1998.Stress transferred by the 1995 Mw=6.9Kobe,Japan,shock:Effect on aftershocks and future earthquake probabilities.Journal of Geophysical Research,103(10):24543-24565.
Toda S,Stein R S.2002.Response of the San Andreas fault to the1983Coalinga-Nuez earthquakes:An application of interactionbased probabilities for Parkfield.Journal of Geophysical Research,107(B6):ESE 6-1-ESE 6-16.
Toda S,Stein R S.2003.Toggling of seismicity by the 1997Kagoshima earthquake couplet:A demonstration of timedependent stress transfer.Journal of Geophysical Research,108(B12):2567.
Toda S,Stein R S,Richards-Dinger K,et al.2005.Forecasting the evolution of seismicity in southern California:Animations built on earthquake stress transfer.Journal of Geophysical Research,110:B05S16.
Toda S,Lin J,Meghraoui M,et al.2008.12 May 2008 M=7.9Wenchuan,China,earthquake calculated to increase failure stress and seismicity rate on three major fault systems.Geophysical Research Letters,35:L17305.
Toda S,Stein R S,Sevilgen V,et al.2011.Coulomb 3.3Graphicrich deformation and stress-change software for earthquake,tectonic,and volcano research and teaching-user guide.U.S.Geological Survey Open-File Report 2011-1060,63p.,available at http:∥pubs.usgs.gov/of/2011/1060/.
Wang H,Wright T J,Biggs J.2009.Interseismic slip rate of the northwestern Xianshuihe fault from InSAR data.Geophysical Research Letters,36(3):L03302.
Wells D L,Coppersmith K J.1994.New empirical relationships among magnitude,rupture length,rupture width,rupture area,and surface displacement.Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America,84(4):974-1002.
Wen X Z.2000.Character of rupture segmentation of the XianshuiheAnninghe-Zemuhe fault zone,Western Sichuan.Seismology and Geology(in Chinese),22(3):239-249.
Wensnousky S G.1986.Earthquakes,quaternary faults,and seismic hazard in California.Journal of Geophysical Research,91(B12):12587-12631.
Wu P P,Li Z,Li D H,et al.2014.Numerical simulation of stress evolution on Xianshuihe Fault based on contact element model.Progress in Geophysics(in Chinese),29(5):2084-2091,doi:10.6038/pg20140514.
Xu J.2013.Tectonic loading and the interaction among the large earthquakes on Xianshuihe fault[Master′s degree](in Chinese).Beijing:Institute of Seismic Science,China Earthquake Administration.
Xu J,Shao Z G,Ma H S,et al.2013.Evolution of Coulomb stress and stress interaction among strong earthquakes along the Xianshuihe fault zone.Chinese J.Geophys.(in Chinese),56(4):1146-1158,doi:10.6038/cjg20130410.
Yi G X,Long F,Wen X Z,et al.2015.Seismogenic structure of the M6.3 Kangding earthquake sequence on 22Nov.2014,Southwestern China.Chinese J.Geophys.(in Chinese),58(4):1205-1219,doi:10.6038/cjg20150410.
Zhang Q W,Zhang P Z,Wang C,et al.2003.Earthquake triggering and delaying caused by fault interaction on Xianshuihe fault belt,southwestern China.Acta Seismologica Sinica(in Chinese),25(2):143-153.
Zhang X,Tang H T,Li R S,et al.2012.Research on activity features of Xianshuihe fault and its relationship with great earthquakes based upon grey relation degree method.Journal of Seismological Research(in Chinese),35(4):500-505.
Zhou H L,Allen C R,Kanamori H.1983a.Rupture complexity of the 1970Tonghai and 1973Luhuo earthquakes,China,from P-Wave inversion,and relationship to surface faulting.Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America,73(6A):1585-1597.
Zhou H L,Liu H L,Kanamori H.1983b.Source processes of large earthquakes along the Xianshuihe fault in southwestern China.Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America,73(2):537-551.
Zhou R J,He Y L,Huang Z Z,et al.2001.The slip rate and strong earthquake recurrence interval on the Qianning-Kangding segment of the Xianshuihe fault zone.Acta Seismologica Sinica(in Chinese),23(3):250-261.
方颖,张晶,江在森等.2015.用跨断层形变资料分析鲜水河断裂西北段的运动特征.地球物理学报,58(5):1645-1653,doi:10.6038/cjg20150516.
郭星.2014.强震复发的随机特征滑动模型及其应用方法研究[博士论文].北京:中国地震局地球物理研究所.
李凌婧,姚鑫,张永双等.2015.基于PS-InSAR技术的断裂带近场变形特征提取.地质通报,34(1):217-228.
刘博研,史保平,雷建设.2013.汶川地震对芦山地震及周边断层发震概率的影响.地震学报,35(5):642-651.
苏琴,杨永林,王兰等.2012.鲜水河断裂带跨断层形变中短期强震预测指标研究.四川地震,(4):10-17.
王辉,刘杰,石耀霖等.2008.鲜水河断裂带强震相互作用的动力学模拟研究.中国科学D辑:地球科学,38(7):808-818.
闻学泽.2000.四川西部鲜水河-安宁河-则木河断裂带的地震破裂分段特征.地震地质,22(3):239-249.
吴萍萍,李振,李大虎等.2014.基于ANSYS接触单元模型的鲜水河断裂带库仑应力演化数值模拟.地球物理学进展,29(5):2084-2091,doi:10.6038/pg20140514.
徐晶.2013.鲜水河断裂带的构造应力加载与强震间相互影响研究[硕士论文].北京:中国地震局地震预测研究所.
徐晶,邵志刚,马宏生等.2013.鲜水河断裂带库仑应力演化与强震间关系.地球物理学报,56(4):1146-1158,doi:10.6038/cjg20130410.
易桂喜,龙锋,闻学泽等.2015.2014年11月22日康定M6.3级地震序列发震构造分析.地球物理学报,58(4):1204-1219,doi:10.6038/cjg20150410.
张秋文,张培震,王乘等.2003.鲜水河断裂带断层间相互作用的触震与缓震效应.地震学报,25(2):143-153.
张希,唐红涛,李瑞莎等.2012.基于灰色关联度的鲜水河断裂活动特性与大震关系研究.地震研究,35(4):500-505.
周荣军,何玉林,黄祖智等.2001.鲜水河断裂带乾宁-康定段的滑动速率与强震复发间隔.地震学报,23(3):250-261.