遗传层次分析法在区域水资源承载力评价指标体系筛选中的应用
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摘要
区域水资源承载力评价是区域水安全战略中的基础性研究课题,其中水资源承载力评价指标体系是评价研究过程中重要的研究基础,其建立过程综合反映了水资源系统与所在地区的经济社会系统、生态环境系统之间的复杂交互作用关系。从水资源数量、质量、空间、流场等水资源系统功能方面的水资源承载过程角度,构建了由水量、水质、水域、水流4个子系统及其二级评价指标组成的区域水资源承载力评价初步指标体系;集成咨询专家信息的形式,得到判断各指标重要性的层次分析法判断矩阵,采用层次分析法与加速遗传算法相结合的遗传层次分析法筛选该初步指标体系并确定其对应的权重关系,最终建立了区域水资源承载力评价指标体系。所建指标体系适用于重点关注区域的水资源承载状态的综合评价研究,为区域水资源承载力监测预警系统提供重要的技术基础。
The evaluation of regional water resources carrying capacity is a basic research topic in the strategy of regional water security, in which the evaluation index system of water resources carrying capacity is an important research foundation. The establishment process of the index system reflects the complex interaction between water resources system, socio-economic system and ecological environment system in the region. From the perspective of carrying process of water resources in terms of water resources system functions such as quantity, quality, space and flow field, a preliminary index system consisting of four subsystems of water quantity, water quality, water area and water flow and their secondary evaluation indexes were formed. The analytic hierarchy process matrix for judging the importance of each index was obtained by integrating the form of consulting expert information. The preliminary index system was screened by the genetic analytic hierarchy process which was combined by the AHP and accelerated genetic algorithm, and the corresponding weight relation was determined. Finally, the evaluation index system of regional water resources carrying capacity was established. The index system is suitable for the comprehensive evaluation of the carrying state of water resources in key areas, and provides an important technical basis for the monitoring and early warning system of the regional water resources carrying capacity.
The evaluation of regional water resources carrying capacity is a basic research topic in the strategy of regional water security, in which the evaluation index system of water resources carrying capacity is an important research foundation. The establishment process of the index system reflects the complex interaction between water resources system, socio-economic system and ecological environment system in the region. From the perspective of carrying process of water resources in terms of water resources system functions such as quantity, quality, space and flow field, a preliminary index system consisting of four subsystems of water quantity, water quality, water area and water flow and their secondary evaluation indexes were formed. The analytic hierarchy process matrix for judging the importance of each index was obtained by integrating the form of consulting expert information. The preliminary index system was screened by the genetic analytic hierarchy process which was combined by the AHP and accelerated genetic algorithm, and the corresponding weight relation was determined. Finally, the evaluation index system of regional water resources carrying capacity was established. The index system is suitable for the comprehensive evaluation of the carrying state of water resources in key areas, and provides an important technical basis for the monitoring and early warning system of the regional water resources carrying capacity.
引文
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[21] 李辉,卞锦宇,周婷,等.基于联系数的区域水资源承载力诊断指标组合预测研究[J].华北水利水电大学学报(自然科学版),2018,39(3):18-23.
[22] 金菊良,沈时兴,郦建强,等.基于联系数的区域水资源承载力评价与诊断分析方法[J].华北水利水电大学学报(自然科学版),2018,39(1):1-9.
[23] 李道西,王一博.基于改进层次分析法的节水灌溉模式优选[J].华北水利水电大学学报(自然科学版),2016,37(3):23-26.
[24] 金菊良,魏一鸣,潘金锋.修正AHP中判断矩阵一致性的加速遗传算法[J].系统工程理论与实践,2004,24(1):63-69.
[25] 金菊良,魏一鸣,丁晶.基于改进层次分析法的模糊综合评价模型[J].水利学报,2004,35(3):65-70.
[26] 金菊良,杨晓华,丁晶.标准遗传算法的改进方案:加速遗传算法[J].系统工程理论与实践,2001,21(4):8-13.
[2] 闫露霞,孙美平,姚晓军,等.青藏高原湖泊水质变化及现状评价[J].环境科学学报,2018,38(3):900-910.
[3] 张亚丽,高楹,吴锋,等.我国东部浅水湖泊水生态效应特征[J].环境科学研究,2018,31(5):878-885.
[4] 尚松浩.基于水旱灾害的中国农业水安全情势评价[J].华北水利水电大学学报(自然科学版),2018,39(1):10-14.
[5] 王建华,翟正丽,桑学锋,等.水资源承载力指标体系及评判准则研究[J].水利学报,2017,48(9):1023-1029.
[6] WU Lei,SU Xiaoling,MA Xiaoyi,et al.Integrated modeling framework for evaluating and predicting the water resources carrying capacity in a continental river basin of Northwest China[J].Journal of cleaner production,2018,204(2):366-379.
[7] 王浩,秦大庸,王建华,等.西北内陆干旱区水资源承载能力研究[J].自然资源学报,2004,19(2):151-159.
[8] 段春青,刘昌明,陈晓楠,等.区域水资源承载力概念及研究方法的探讨[J].地理学报,2010,65(1):82-90.
[9] DONG Xuyan,LU Ying,ZHOU Zixuan,et al.Comprehensive assessment of water environment carrying capacity of Yunnan Province[J].Journal of landscape research,2017(3):80-85.
[10] 赵建世,王忠静,秦韬,等.海河流域水资源承载能力演变分析[J].水利学报,2008,39(6):647-651.
[11] YANG Junfeng,LEI Kun,KHU Soonthiam,et al.Assessment of water resources carrying capacity for sustainable development based on a system dynamics model:a case study of Tieling City,China[J].Water resources management,2015,29(3):885-899.
[12] LI Yi,YANG Yanzhao,YAN Huimin,et al.Research methods of water resources carrying capacity:progress and prospects[J].Journal of resources and ecology,2018,9(5):455-460.
[13] 金菊良,陈梦璐,郦建强,等.水资源承载力预警研究进展[J].水科学进展,2018,29(4):583-596.
[14] ZOU Lele,WEI Yiming.Impact assessment using DEA of coastal hazards on social-economy in Southeast Asia[J].Natural hazards,2009,48(2):167-189.
[15] 封志明,刘登伟.京津冀地区水资源供需平衡及其水资源承载力[J].自然资源学报,2006,21(5):689-699.
[16] 王友贞,施国庆,王德胜.区域水资源承载力评价指标体系的研究[J].自然资源学报,2005,20(4):597-604.
[17] 金菊良,王文圣,洪天求,等.流域水安全智能评价方法的理论基础探讨[J].水利学报,2006,37(8):918-925.
[18] 郦建强,李爱花,唱彤,等.水流功能分析及其在水利总体规划中的应用[J].水利规划与设计,2017(11):1-5.
[19] 邹乐乐,金菊良,周玉良.基于遗传模糊层次分析法的水库诱发地震综合风险评价指标体系筛选模型[J].地震地质,2010,32(4):628-637.
[20] 金菊良,董涛,郦建强,等.区域水资源承载力评价的风险矩阵方法[J].华北水利水电大学学报(自然科学版),2018,39(2):46-50.
[21] 李辉,卞锦宇,周婷,等.基于联系数的区域水资源承载力诊断指标组合预测研究[J].华北水利水电大学学报(自然科学版),2018,39(3):18-23.
[22] 金菊良,沈时兴,郦建强,等.基于联系数的区域水资源承载力评价与诊断分析方法[J].华北水利水电大学学报(自然科学版),2018,39(1):1-9.
[23] 李道西,王一博.基于改进层次分析法的节水灌溉模式优选[J].华北水利水电大学学报(自然科学版),2016,37(3):23-26.
[24] 金菊良,魏一鸣,潘金锋.修正AHP中判断矩阵一致性的加速遗传算法[J].系统工程理论与实践,2004,24(1):63-69.
[25] 金菊良,魏一鸣,丁晶.基于改进层次分析法的模糊综合评价模型[J].水利学报,2004,35(3):65-70.
[26] 金菊良,杨晓华,丁晶.标准遗传算法的改进方案:加速遗传算法[J].系统工程理论与实践,2001,21(4):8-13.