基于三维图像模式识别的西藏东南部地震灾害损失风险评估
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摘要
本文在对西藏东南部各县的建筑类型、数量、易损性调查的基础上,对不同类型的建筑建立了模式类向量,使用三维图像模式识别技术估计了各类型建筑在西藏东南部各县市的数量分布,建立了不同建筑物的结构易损性和人口易损性模型,并且估算了西藏东南部各县在遭遇一次设定地震时的损失分布和基于危险性的未来50年可能的损失分布情况.本文研究表明,若曲松—桑日发生7.5级地震,可能造成拉萨、山南两市较重的人员伤亡,其中曲松县和乃东区伤亡最重.西藏东南部未来50年建筑地震风险最高的地区是拉萨市区、林芝市区和错那县,其中拉萨市区的建筑财产损失风险最高.
This paper investigated the numbers,types,and vulnerability of the buildings in Southeastern Tibet and built pattern classes for difference types of buildings.Then we assessed the distribution of each type of buildings in every town based on 3D image pattern recognition,and made an event-based and a 50-year hazard-based seismic risk assessment for the towns in Southeastern Tibet.Our study indicated that if an M7.5 earthquake happened in Qusong-Sangri,it may cause serious casualties in Lhasa and Shannan area.The town of Qusong and Naidong may have the most casualties.Areas with the highest seismic risk are urban areas of Lhasa and Nyingchi and Cuona Town,and urban Lhasa has the highest seismic risk of building structural economic losses.
This paper investigated the numbers,types,and vulnerability of the buildings in Southeastern Tibet and built pattern classes for difference types of buildings.Then we assessed the distribution of each type of buildings in every town based on 3D image pattern recognition,and made an event-based and a 50-year hazard-based seismic risk assessment for the towns in Southeastern Tibet.Our study indicated that if an M7.5 earthquake happened in Qusong-Sangri,it may cause serious casualties in Lhasa and Shannan area.The town of Qusong and Naidong may have the most casualties.Areas with the highest seismic risk are urban areas of Lhasa and Nyingchi and Cuona Town,and urban Lhasa has the highest seismic risk of building structural economic losses.
引文
Bai G L,Xue F,Xu Y Z.2011.Seismic damage analysis and reduction measures of buildings in village and town in the Yushu Earthquake.Journal of Xi'an University of Architecture&Technology(Natural Science Edition)(in Chinese),43(3):309-315.
Bartoli G,Betti M,Vignoli A.2016.A numerical study on seismic risk assessment of historic masonry towers:a case study in San Gimignano.Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering,14(6):1475-1518.
Chaulagain H,Rodrigues H,Silva V,et al.2015.Seismic risk assessment and hazard mapping in Nepal.Natural Hazards,78(1):583-602.
China General Administration of Quality Supervision,Inspection and Quarantine(CGAQSIQ),China National Standardization Administration(CNSA).2015.GB 18306-2015Seismic Ground Motion Parameters Zonation Map of China.Beijing:China Standard Press.
Despotaki V,Burton H V,Schneider J,et al.2017.“Back to Normal”:Earthquake Recovery Modelling.California Seismic Safety Commission,CSSC Publication No.2017-06.
Ebel J E,Kafka A L.1999.A Monte Carlo approach to seismic hazard analysis.Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America,89(4):854-866
Gao J R,Nima,Wen S L,et al.2015.Characteristics of seismic damage by the Nepal M8.1earthquake in the Tibet area of China.Technology for Earthquake Disaster Prevention(in Chinese),10(4):961-968.
Hou S W,Sun W F,Zheng X S.2014.Overview of cloud detection methods in remote sensing images.Space Electronic Technology(in Chinese),11(3):68-76,86.
Huang S N,Yuan Y F,Meng Q L,et al.2011.Study on seismic resistance of rural houses based on earthquake damage to buildings in Yushu earthquake.World Earthquake Engineering(in Chinese),27(2):77-82.
Li X T.2004.Application Research on remote sensing image classification based on geostatistics and ANN[Master′s thesis](in Chinese).Ji′nan:Shandong University of Science and Technology.
Li Y,Chen Y,Dong X L,et al.2012.Remote sensing image recognition algorithm based on neural network.Geomatics&SpatialInformation Technology(in Chinese),35(2):156-158.
Liu J F,Chen Y,Shi P J,et al.2008.On seismic risk assessment in Mainland China.Journal of Beijing Normal University(Natural Science)(in Chinese),44(5):520-523.
Lv D G,Yu X H.2013.Application study of probabilistic seismic risk assessment based on analytical functions of seismic fragility.Journal of Building Structures(in Chinese),34(10):49-56.
Meng Q X,Dang X H.2018.Research on Current Crustal Deformation in the Jiuzhaigou Area under the Constraints of GPSResults by Discontinuous Contact Model.Journal of Seismological Research(in Chinese),41(3):390-397.
Pan Y,Wang Z K,Shi S J,et al.2017.Investigation and analysis on seismic damage of residential buildings along the highway from Kathmandu to Zhangmu in MS8.1 Gorkha Earthquake.Journal of Hunan University(Natural Sciences)(in Chinese),44(3):35-44.
Qin S T,Li Z M,Tan M,et al.2010.Analysis of damage characteristics of the M7.1Yushu earthquake of Qinghai and the enlightenments.Journal of Catastrophology(in Chinese),25(3):65-70
Qu Z,Yang Y Q.2015.Seismic damages to owner-built dwellings in the 2015 earthquake sequence in Nepal.Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Dynamics(in Chinese),35(4):51-59.
Salgado-Gálvez M A,Romero D Z,Velásquez C A,et al.2016.Urban seismic risk index for Medellín,Colombia,based on probabilistic loss and casualties estimations.Natural Hazards,80(3):1995-2021,doi:10.1007/s11069-015-2056-4.
Silva V,Crowley H,Pagani M,et al.2014.Development of the OpenQuake engine,the Global Earthquake Model′s open-source software for seismic risk assessment.Natural Hazards,72(3):1409-1427,doi:10.1007/s11069-013-0618-x.
State Council Census Committee(SCCC),National Bureau of Statistics Population and Employment Statistics Division(NBSPESD).2010.Tabulation on the 2010Population Census of the People′s Republic of China(in Chinese).Beijing:China Statistics Press.
Tan M,Li Y,Hu W H,et al.2010.Investigation and analysis on seismic hazards on building construction of Yushu 7.1Earthquake in Qinghai.Inland Earthquake(in Chinese),24(2):173-179.
Wang Z T,Su J Y,Ma D H,et al.2008.Research on risk zoning of urban seismic disasters.China Safety Science Journal(in Chinese),18(9):5-10.
Wang X Q,Huang S S,Ding X,et al.2015.Extraction and analysis of building damage caused by Nepal MS8.1earthquake from remote sensing images.Technology for Earthquake Disaster Prevention(in Chinese),10(3):481-490.
Wells D L,Coppersmith K J.1994.New empirical relationships among magnitude,rupture length,rupture width,rupture area,and surface displacement.Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America,84(4):974-1002.
Wieland M,Pittore M,Parolai S,et al.2015.Towards a crossborder exposure model for the Earthquake Model Central Asia.Annals of Geophysics,58(1):S0106,doi:10.4401/ag-6663.
Yu Y X,Li S Y,Xiao L.2013.Development of ground motion attenuation relations for the new seismic hazard map of China.Technology for Earthquake Disaster Prevention(in Chinese),8(1):24-33.
Zhang H Y,Wang T,Lin X C,et al.2016.Seismic damages of RCframes in Nepal MS8.1earthquake.Engineering Mechanics(in Chinese),33(9):59-68
Zhou X F.2011.Three cases of Fermi problems.Physics Bulletin(in Chinese),(5):85-88.
白国良,薛冯,徐亚洲.2011.青海玉树地震村镇建筑震害分析及减灾措施.西安建筑科技大学学学报(自然科学版),43(3):309-315.
高锦瑞,尼玛,文升梁,等.2015.尼泊尔8.1级地震对中国西藏地区造成的震害特征分析.震灾防御技术,10(4):961-968.
国务院人口普查办公室委员会,国家统计局人口和就业统计司.2010.中国2010年人口普查资料.北京:中国统计出版社.
侯舒维,孙文方,郑小松.2014.遥感图像云检测方法综述.空间电子技术,11(3):68-76,+86.
黄思凝,袁一凡,孟庆利,等.2011.由玉树地震结构震害看村镇房屋抗震.世界地震工程,27(2):77-82.
李小涛.2004.地统计学和神经网络在遥感影像分类中的应用研究[硕士论文].济南:山东科技大学.
李燕,陈莹,董秀兰等.2012.基于神经网络的遥感图像识别算法.测绘与空间地理信息,35(2):156-158.
刘吉夫,陈颙,史培军等.2008.中国大陆地震风险分析模型研究.北京师范大学学报(自然科学版),44(5):520-523.
吕大刚,于晓辉.2013.基于地震易损性解析函数的概率地震风险理论研究.建筑结构学报,34(10):49-56.
孟庆筱,党学会.2018.GPS约束下九寨沟地区断裂带现今运动速率的非连续接触模拟研究.地震研究,41(3):390-397.
潘毅,王忠凯,时胜杰等.2017.尼泊尔8.1级地震加德满都-樟木沿线民居震害调查与分析.湖南大学学报(自然科学版),44(3):35-44.
秦松涛,李智敏,谭明等.2010.青海玉树7.1级地震震害特点分析及启示.灾害学,25(3):65-70.
曲哲,杨永强.2015.尼泊尔自建民居在2015年地震序列中的震害.地震工程与工程振动,35(4):51-59.
谭明,李洋,胡伟华等.2010.青海玉树7.1级地震房屋建筑震害调查和分析.内陆地震,24(2):173-179.
王志涛,苏经宇,马东辉等.2008.城市地震灾害风险区划的研究.中国安全科学学报,18(9):5-10.
王晓青,黄树松,丁香等.2015.尼泊尔8.1级地震建筑物震害遥感提取与分析.震灾防御技术,10(3):481-490.俞言祥,李山有,肖亮.2013.为新区划图编制所建立的地震动衰减关系.震灾防御技术,8(1):24-33.
张昊宇,王涛,林旭川等.2016.尼泊尔8.1级地震钢筋混凝土框架典型震害及讨论.工程力学,33(9):59-68.
中华人民共和国国家质量监督检验检疫总局,中国国家标准化管理委员会.2015.GB 18306-2015中国地震动参数区划图.北京:中国标准出版社.
周小奋.2011.费米问题三例.物理通报,2011(5):85-88.
Bartoli G,Betti M,Vignoli A.2016.A numerical study on seismic risk assessment of historic masonry towers:a case study in San Gimignano.Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering,14(6):1475-1518.
Chaulagain H,Rodrigues H,Silva V,et al.2015.Seismic risk assessment and hazard mapping in Nepal.Natural Hazards,78(1):583-602.
China General Administration of Quality Supervision,Inspection and Quarantine(CGAQSIQ),China National Standardization Administration(CNSA).2015.GB 18306-2015Seismic Ground Motion Parameters Zonation Map of China.Beijing:China Standard Press.
Despotaki V,Burton H V,Schneider J,et al.2017.“Back to Normal”:Earthquake Recovery Modelling.California Seismic Safety Commission,CSSC Publication No.2017-06.
Ebel J E,Kafka A L.1999.A Monte Carlo approach to seismic hazard analysis.Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America,89(4):854-866
Gao J R,Nima,Wen S L,et al.2015.Characteristics of seismic damage by the Nepal M8.1earthquake in the Tibet area of China.Technology for Earthquake Disaster Prevention(in Chinese),10(4):961-968.
Hou S W,Sun W F,Zheng X S.2014.Overview of cloud detection methods in remote sensing images.Space Electronic Technology(in Chinese),11(3):68-76,86.
Huang S N,Yuan Y F,Meng Q L,et al.2011.Study on seismic resistance of rural houses based on earthquake damage to buildings in Yushu earthquake.World Earthquake Engineering(in Chinese),27(2):77-82.
Li X T.2004.Application Research on remote sensing image classification based on geostatistics and ANN[Master′s thesis](in Chinese).Ji′nan:Shandong University of Science and Technology.
Li Y,Chen Y,Dong X L,et al.2012.Remote sensing image recognition algorithm based on neural network.Geomatics&SpatialInformation Technology(in Chinese),35(2):156-158.
Liu J F,Chen Y,Shi P J,et al.2008.On seismic risk assessment in Mainland China.Journal of Beijing Normal University(Natural Science)(in Chinese),44(5):520-523.
Lv D G,Yu X H.2013.Application study of probabilistic seismic risk assessment based on analytical functions of seismic fragility.Journal of Building Structures(in Chinese),34(10):49-56.
Meng Q X,Dang X H.2018.Research on Current Crustal Deformation in the Jiuzhaigou Area under the Constraints of GPSResults by Discontinuous Contact Model.Journal of Seismological Research(in Chinese),41(3):390-397.
Pan Y,Wang Z K,Shi S J,et al.2017.Investigation and analysis on seismic damage of residential buildings along the highway from Kathmandu to Zhangmu in MS8.1 Gorkha Earthquake.Journal of Hunan University(Natural Sciences)(in Chinese),44(3):35-44.
Qin S T,Li Z M,Tan M,et al.2010.Analysis of damage characteristics of the M7.1Yushu earthquake of Qinghai and the enlightenments.Journal of Catastrophology(in Chinese),25(3):65-70
Qu Z,Yang Y Q.2015.Seismic damages to owner-built dwellings in the 2015 earthquake sequence in Nepal.Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Dynamics(in Chinese),35(4):51-59.
Salgado-Gálvez M A,Romero D Z,Velásquez C A,et al.2016.Urban seismic risk index for Medellín,Colombia,based on probabilistic loss and casualties estimations.Natural Hazards,80(3):1995-2021,doi:10.1007/s11069-015-2056-4.
Silva V,Crowley H,Pagani M,et al.2014.Development of the OpenQuake engine,the Global Earthquake Model′s open-source software for seismic risk assessment.Natural Hazards,72(3):1409-1427,doi:10.1007/s11069-013-0618-x.
State Council Census Committee(SCCC),National Bureau of Statistics Population and Employment Statistics Division(NBSPESD).2010.Tabulation on the 2010Population Census of the People′s Republic of China(in Chinese).Beijing:China Statistics Press.
Tan M,Li Y,Hu W H,et al.2010.Investigation and analysis on seismic hazards on building construction of Yushu 7.1Earthquake in Qinghai.Inland Earthquake(in Chinese),24(2):173-179.
Wang Z T,Su J Y,Ma D H,et al.2008.Research on risk zoning of urban seismic disasters.China Safety Science Journal(in Chinese),18(9):5-10.
Wang X Q,Huang S S,Ding X,et al.2015.Extraction and analysis of building damage caused by Nepal MS8.1earthquake from remote sensing images.Technology for Earthquake Disaster Prevention(in Chinese),10(3):481-490.
Wells D L,Coppersmith K J.1994.New empirical relationships among magnitude,rupture length,rupture width,rupture area,and surface displacement.Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America,84(4):974-1002.
Wieland M,Pittore M,Parolai S,et al.2015.Towards a crossborder exposure model for the Earthquake Model Central Asia.Annals of Geophysics,58(1):S0106,doi:10.4401/ag-6663.
Yu Y X,Li S Y,Xiao L.2013.Development of ground motion attenuation relations for the new seismic hazard map of China.Technology for Earthquake Disaster Prevention(in Chinese),8(1):24-33.
Zhang H Y,Wang T,Lin X C,et al.2016.Seismic damages of RCframes in Nepal MS8.1earthquake.Engineering Mechanics(in Chinese),33(9):59-68
Zhou X F.2011.Three cases of Fermi problems.Physics Bulletin(in Chinese),(5):85-88.
白国良,薛冯,徐亚洲.2011.青海玉树地震村镇建筑震害分析及减灾措施.西安建筑科技大学学学报(自然科学版),43(3):309-315.
高锦瑞,尼玛,文升梁,等.2015.尼泊尔8.1级地震对中国西藏地区造成的震害特征分析.震灾防御技术,10(4):961-968.
国务院人口普查办公室委员会,国家统计局人口和就业统计司.2010.中国2010年人口普查资料.北京:中国统计出版社.
侯舒维,孙文方,郑小松.2014.遥感图像云检测方法综述.空间电子技术,11(3):68-76,+86.
黄思凝,袁一凡,孟庆利,等.2011.由玉树地震结构震害看村镇房屋抗震.世界地震工程,27(2):77-82.
李小涛.2004.地统计学和神经网络在遥感影像分类中的应用研究[硕士论文].济南:山东科技大学.
李燕,陈莹,董秀兰等.2012.基于神经网络的遥感图像识别算法.测绘与空间地理信息,35(2):156-158.
刘吉夫,陈颙,史培军等.2008.中国大陆地震风险分析模型研究.北京师范大学学报(自然科学版),44(5):520-523.
吕大刚,于晓辉.2013.基于地震易损性解析函数的概率地震风险理论研究.建筑结构学报,34(10):49-56.
孟庆筱,党学会.2018.GPS约束下九寨沟地区断裂带现今运动速率的非连续接触模拟研究.地震研究,41(3):390-397.
潘毅,王忠凯,时胜杰等.2017.尼泊尔8.1级地震加德满都-樟木沿线民居震害调查与分析.湖南大学学报(自然科学版),44(3):35-44.
秦松涛,李智敏,谭明等.2010.青海玉树7.1级地震震害特点分析及启示.灾害学,25(3):65-70.
曲哲,杨永强.2015.尼泊尔自建民居在2015年地震序列中的震害.地震工程与工程振动,35(4):51-59.
谭明,李洋,胡伟华等.2010.青海玉树7.1级地震房屋建筑震害调查和分析.内陆地震,24(2):173-179.
王志涛,苏经宇,马东辉等.2008.城市地震灾害风险区划的研究.中国安全科学学报,18(9):5-10.
王晓青,黄树松,丁香等.2015.尼泊尔8.1级地震建筑物震害遥感提取与分析.震灾防御技术,10(3):481-490.俞言祥,李山有,肖亮.2013.为新区划图编制所建立的地震动衰减关系.震灾防御技术,8(1):24-33.
张昊宇,王涛,林旭川等.2016.尼泊尔8.1级地震钢筋混凝土框架典型震害及讨论.工程力学,33(9):59-68.
中华人民共和国国家质量监督检验检疫总局,中国国家标准化管理委员会.2015.GB 18306-2015中国地震动参数区划图.北京:中国标准出版社.
周小奋.2011.费米问题三例.物理通报,2011(5):85-88.