基于多区域投入产出模型的长江经济带虚拟水流动格局研究
|
摘要
水资源是长江经济带生态文明建设和绿色发展的关键领域和核心要素之一,分析长江经济带虚拟水流动格局有利于把握区域社会经济发展进程中水资源利用的深层次规律,实现长江经济带水资源优化配置和区域协调发展。本文为揭示长江经济带内、外经济贸易隐含虚拟水流动关系,依据多区域投入产出核算原理,基于产业经济、贸易数据及产业部门用水量,设计2012年长江经济带多区域投入产出表,构建长江经济带多区域投入产出模型框架,计算分析了长江经济带虚拟水流动格局,并评价净输出省区虚拟水贸易状态与水资源承载力的协调性。研究结果表明:①在全国贸易中,长江经济带区域整体呈虚拟水净输出状态。上海、浙江和重庆为虚拟水净输入区,其余省区均为虚拟水净输出区,其中江苏、安徽、湖北和湖南虚拟水净输出状态与当地水资源承载力不协调。②长江经济带各省区主要虚拟水输入、输出产业部门存在明显的区域差异。下游区域和上游地区重庆主要虚拟水输出产业为制造业,中游区域和上游地区四川、贵州、云南主要输出水资源密集型产品,输入劳动密集型产品。③在长江经济带区域内部贸易中,各省区贸易联系呈现出沿长江流域地理分布的特征。上游地区间贸易交流频繁,与中下游区域贸易联系不强,而中下游区域间贸易交流频繁。上海、浙江是虚拟水主要流向地,江苏、湖南是各省区虚拟水主要来源地。因此,在全国范围内,应对水资源利用进行统筹规划,建立多区域协调发展机制,转变区域间贸易结构;在长江经济带区域内部,根据地区间资源禀赋差异性和水资源承载力,系统、合理制定产业和贸易政策。
Water resources are put much emphasis in the ecological civilization construction and green development of the Yangtze River Economic Belt. Research on the virtual water flow pattern of the Yangtze River Economic Belt is conductive to better understanding the relationship between economic development and water utilization,thus optimizing water resources allocation and achieving coordinated development in the Yangtze River Economic Belt. This study designed the economic input-output table of the Yangtze River Economic Belt,and established a virtual water accounting model for the Yangtze River Economic Belt by combining the input-output table and sector water consumption. The virtual water flow pattern and the coordination between virtual water external dependence and water resources carrying capacity of each province in the Yangtze River Economic Belt were analyzed. The results indicated that: ① the Yangtze River Economic Belt was a virtual water net outflow area in the inter-provincial trade in China. Among all the provinces in the Yangtze River Economic Belt,only three provinces,Shanghai,Zhejiang and Chongqing,were net virtual water importers. The virtual water external dependence was not consistent with local water resources carrying capacity in Jiangsu,Anhui,Hubei and Hunan. ②There existed obvious regional differences in the major virtual water transfer industries. Manufacturing sector was the critical exporter in the lower reaches and Chongqing. However,four provinces in middle reaches of the Yangtze River as well as Sichuan,Guizhou and Yunnan mainly exported water-intensive products and imported labor-intensive products. ③The inter-provincial trades in the Yangtze River Economic Belt were characterized by geographical distribution along the Yangtze basin. The virtual water trades between the middle reaches and lower reaches were frequent,but the economic connections with the upper reaches were not so strong. Shanghai and Zhejiang were major virtual water importers while Jiangsu and Hunan played important roles of outputting virtual water in the Yangtze River Economic Belt. Therefore,on one hand,a multi-regional coordinated development mechanism should be established to transform the interregional trade structure in China,on the other hand,industrial and trade policies should be systematically formulated on the basis of local resource endowment and water resources carrying capacity in the Yangtze River Economic Belt.
Water resources are put much emphasis in the ecological civilization construction and green development of the Yangtze River Economic Belt. Research on the virtual water flow pattern of the Yangtze River Economic Belt is conductive to better understanding the relationship between economic development and water utilization,thus optimizing water resources allocation and achieving coordinated development in the Yangtze River Economic Belt. This study designed the economic input-output table of the Yangtze River Economic Belt,and established a virtual water accounting model for the Yangtze River Economic Belt by combining the input-output table and sector water consumption. The virtual water flow pattern and the coordination between virtual water external dependence and water resources carrying capacity of each province in the Yangtze River Economic Belt were analyzed. The results indicated that: ① the Yangtze River Economic Belt was a virtual water net outflow area in the inter-provincial trade in China. Among all the provinces in the Yangtze River Economic Belt,only three provinces,Shanghai,Zhejiang and Chongqing,were net virtual water importers. The virtual water external dependence was not consistent with local water resources carrying capacity in Jiangsu,Anhui,Hubei and Hunan. ②There existed obvious regional differences in the major virtual water transfer industries. Manufacturing sector was the critical exporter in the lower reaches and Chongqing. However,four provinces in middle reaches of the Yangtze River as well as Sichuan,Guizhou and Yunnan mainly exported water-intensive products and imported labor-intensive products. ③The inter-provincial trades in the Yangtze River Economic Belt were characterized by geographical distribution along the Yangtze basin. The virtual water trades between the middle reaches and lower reaches were frequent,but the economic connections with the upper reaches were not so strong. Shanghai and Zhejiang were major virtual water importers while Jiangsu and Hunan played important roles of outputting virtual water in the Yangtze River Economic Belt. Therefore,on one hand,a multi-regional coordinated development mechanism should be established to transform the interregional trade structure in China,on the other hand,industrial and trade policies should be systematically formulated on the basis of local resource endowment and water resources carrying capacity in the Yangtze River Economic Belt.
引文
[1]刘东,李晓凌.长江流域节水前景与措施浅析[J].长江流域资源与环境,2003,12(4):340-344.
[2]李焕,黄贤金,金雨泽,等.长江经济带水资源人口承载力研究[J].经济地理,2017(1):181-186.
[3]ALLAN J A.Fortunately there are substitutes for water otherwise our hydro political futures would be impossible[C]//Priorities for water resources allocation and management.London:ODA,1993:13-26.
[4]ZHANG C,ANADON L D.A multi-regional input-output analysis of domestic virtual water trade and provincial water footprint in China[J].Ecological economics,2014,100(2):159-172.
[5]JIANG Y K,CAI W J,DU P F,et al.Virtual water in interprovincial trade with implications for China’s water policy[J].Journal of cleaner production,2015,87(1):655-665.
[6]王勇.全行业口径下中国区域间贸易隐含虚拟水的转移测算[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2016,26(4):107-115.
[7]王雪妮.基于区域间投入产出模型的中国虚拟水贸易格局及趋势研究[J].管理评论,2014,26(7):46-54.
[8]吴兆丹,赵敏,UPMANU L.中国地区农林牧渔业虚拟水流动格局研究——以经济区域与省区为空间尺度[J].软科学,2016,30(11):44-47.
[9]谭圣林,刘祖发,熊育久,等.基于多区域投入产出法的广东省水足迹研究[J].生态环境学报,2013,22(9):1564-1570.
[10]杨雅雪,赵旭,杨井.新疆虚拟水和水足迹的核算及其影响分析[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2015,25(5):228-232.
[11]张小霞,马忠.基于区域间投入——产出模型的新疆虚拟水流向研究[J].资源开发与市场,2015,31(9):1069-1072.
[12]梅燕,沈浩军.基于投入产出法的浙江省虚拟水贸易实证分析[J].技术经济,2013,32(9):79-86.
[13]秦腾,章恒全,佟金萍,等.长江经济带城镇化进程中的水资源约束效应分析[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2018,28(3):39-45.
[14]MI Z F,MENG J,GUAN D B,et al.Chinese CO2emission flows have reversed since the global financial crisis[J].Nature communications,2017,8:1-10.
[15]曹涛,王赛鸽,陈彬.基于多区域投入产出分析的京津冀地区虚拟水核算[J].生态学报,2018,38(3):788-799.
[16]吴兆丹,张珊珊,马子建,等.江苏省虚拟水贸易结构调整研究[J].水利经济,2017,35(3):31-36.
[17]LEONTIEF W.Quantitative input and output relations in the economic systems of the United States[J].The review of economics and statistics,1936,18(13):105-125.
[18]曾冰,邱志萍.长江经济带省际贸易网络结构时空特征及其影响因素研究[J].上海经济研究,2017(9):69-77.
[19]刘佳骏,董锁成,李泽红.中国水资源承载力综合评价研究[J].自然资源学报,2011,26(2):258-269.
[20]TAN F F,BI J.An inquiry into water transfer network of the Yangtze River Economic Belt in China[J].Journal of cleaner production,2018,176:288-297.
[2]李焕,黄贤金,金雨泽,等.长江经济带水资源人口承载力研究[J].经济地理,2017(1):181-186.
[3]ALLAN J A.Fortunately there are substitutes for water otherwise our hydro political futures would be impossible[C]//Priorities for water resources allocation and management.London:ODA,1993:13-26.
[4]ZHANG C,ANADON L D.A multi-regional input-output analysis of domestic virtual water trade and provincial water footprint in China[J].Ecological economics,2014,100(2):159-172.
[5]JIANG Y K,CAI W J,DU P F,et al.Virtual water in interprovincial trade with implications for China’s water policy[J].Journal of cleaner production,2015,87(1):655-665.
[6]王勇.全行业口径下中国区域间贸易隐含虚拟水的转移测算[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2016,26(4):107-115.
[7]王雪妮.基于区域间投入产出模型的中国虚拟水贸易格局及趋势研究[J].管理评论,2014,26(7):46-54.
[8]吴兆丹,赵敏,UPMANU L.中国地区农林牧渔业虚拟水流动格局研究——以经济区域与省区为空间尺度[J].软科学,2016,30(11):44-47.
[9]谭圣林,刘祖发,熊育久,等.基于多区域投入产出法的广东省水足迹研究[J].生态环境学报,2013,22(9):1564-1570.
[10]杨雅雪,赵旭,杨井.新疆虚拟水和水足迹的核算及其影响分析[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2015,25(5):228-232.
[11]张小霞,马忠.基于区域间投入——产出模型的新疆虚拟水流向研究[J].资源开发与市场,2015,31(9):1069-1072.
[12]梅燕,沈浩军.基于投入产出法的浙江省虚拟水贸易实证分析[J].技术经济,2013,32(9):79-86.
[13]秦腾,章恒全,佟金萍,等.长江经济带城镇化进程中的水资源约束效应分析[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2018,28(3):39-45.
[14]MI Z F,MENG J,GUAN D B,et al.Chinese CO2emission flows have reversed since the global financial crisis[J].Nature communications,2017,8:1-10.
[15]曹涛,王赛鸽,陈彬.基于多区域投入产出分析的京津冀地区虚拟水核算[J].生态学报,2018,38(3):788-799.
[16]吴兆丹,张珊珊,马子建,等.江苏省虚拟水贸易结构调整研究[J].水利经济,2017,35(3):31-36.
[17]LEONTIEF W.Quantitative input and output relations in the economic systems of the United States[J].The review of economics and statistics,1936,18(13):105-125.
[18]曾冰,邱志萍.长江经济带省际贸易网络结构时空特征及其影响因素研究[J].上海经济研究,2017(9):69-77.
[19]刘佳骏,董锁成,李泽红.中国水资源承载力综合评价研究[J].自然资源学报,2011,26(2):258-269.
[20]TAN F F,BI J.An inquiry into water transfer network of the Yangtze River Economic Belt in China[J].Journal of cleaner production,2018,176:288-297.