羊毛湾水库流域气温和降水变化特征分析
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摘要
旨在深入了解羊毛湾水库流域气候的长期演变规律,为水库后期建设规划、运营管理及水库的水源预报提供一定的理论基础和参考。利用流域内气象站1960—2017年气候资料,采用统计、距平分析及Morlet小波分析等,对水库流域近58年来气温及降水时间序列的季节变化和年际变化进行多尺度分析。结果表明:水库流域年平均气温以0.24℃/10a的倾向率呈上升趋势,尤其是21世纪10年代以来气温升高趋势最为显著;年降水量以1.6 mm/10a的倾向率呈弱下降趋势,但夏季和冬季呈弱增加趋势;气温的小波分析表明流域内平均气温存在4年、10年、20年的变化周期,其中20年的强显著周期。降水存在4年、8年、22年的变化周期,强显著周期为22年;通过小波变换系数图可知,流域未来几年内气温仍呈现偏高趋势,降水则呈偏少趋势发展。
The study aims to understand the long-term evolvement rule of climate in the basin of Yangmaowan Reservoir, and to provide references for the reservoir construction planning in the later period, the operation management and the water source prediction of the reservoir. Using the climatic data of the meteorological station in the basin from 1960 to 2017, the seasonal and interannual variation of temperature and precipitation time series in the reservoir basin over the past 58 years were analyzed with statistics, anomaly analysis and Morlet wavelet analysis. The results showed that the annual average temperature of the reservoir basin increased at the tendency rate of 0.24℃ every 10 years, especially significant since 2010. The annual precipitation had a weak downward trend with the tendency rate of 1.6 mm every 10 years, but it increased weakly in summer and winter. The wavelet analysis of the temperature showed that the average temperature in the basin had the change cycles of 4 years, 10 years and 20 years, of which the strong significant period was 20 years. Precipitation had the change cycles of 4 years, 8 years and 22 years, and the strong significant period was 22 years. The wavelet transform coefficient map showed that the temperature of the basin would still have a higher trend in the next few years, and the precipitation would present a trend of less.
The study aims to understand the long-term evolvement rule of climate in the basin of Yangmaowan Reservoir, and to provide references for the reservoir construction planning in the later period, the operation management and the water source prediction of the reservoir. Using the climatic data of the meteorological station in the basin from 1960 to 2017, the seasonal and interannual variation of temperature and precipitation time series in the reservoir basin over the past 58 years were analyzed with statistics, anomaly analysis and Morlet wavelet analysis. The results showed that the annual average temperature of the reservoir basin increased at the tendency rate of 0.24℃ every 10 years, especially significant since 2010. The annual precipitation had a weak downward trend with the tendency rate of 1.6 mm every 10 years, but it increased weakly in summer and winter. The wavelet analysis of the temperature showed that the average temperature in the basin had the change cycles of 4 years, 10 years and 20 years, of which the strong significant period was 20 years. Precipitation had the change cycles of 4 years, 8 years and 22 years, and the strong significant period was 22 years. The wavelet transform coefficient map showed that the temperature of the basin would still have a higher trend in the next few years, and the precipitation would present a trend of less.
引文
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[17]宋敏红,马耀明,张宇,等.2011雅鲁藏布江流域气温变化特征及趋势分析[J].气候与环境研究,16(6):760-766.
[18]许月卿,李双成,蔡运龙.基于小波分析的河北平原降水变化规律研究.中国科学:D辑,2004,34(12):1176-1183.
[19]李春梅,李双成,王红亚.贵州麦岗水库小流域降水变化特征的小波分析[J].地理科学进展,2012(1):32-39.
[20]邱海军,曹明明,曾彬.基于小波分析的西安降水时间序列的变化特征[J].中国农业气象,2011,32(1):23-27.
[21]高蓓,栗珂,李艳丽.陕西近40年气候变化特征的分析[J].成都信息工程学院学报,2006(4):290-295.
[2]虞海燕,刘树华,赵娜,等.1951-2009年中国不同区域气温和降水量变化特征[J].气象与环境学报,2011,27(4):1-11.
[3]邹旭恺,张强.近半个世纪我国干旱变化的初步研究[J].应用气象学报,2008(12):679-687.
[4]姜晓艳,刘树华,马明敏.东北地区近百年降水时间序列变化规律的小波分析[J].地理研究,2009(3):354-362
[5]李聪,肖子牛,张晓玲.近60年中国不同区域降水的气候变化特征[J].气象,2012,38(4):419-424
[6]唐国利,丁一汇,王绍武,等.中国近百年温度曲线的对比分析[J].气候变化研究进展,2009(3):71-78.
[7]杨明,李维亮,刘煜等.近50年我国西部地区气象要素的变化特征[J].应用气象学,2010,21(2):198-204.
[8]商沙沙,廉丽姝,马婷,等.近54a中国西北地区气温和降水的时空变化特征[J].干旱区研究,2018(1):68-76.
[9]白爱娟,方建刚.近50a陕西省冬季气候变化特征及其与北半球大气环流的关系[J].气象科学,2003,23(2):176-184.
[10]金丽娜,曲静,翟园,等.西安近63年气候变化特征综合分析[J].陕西气象,2014(3):17-20.
[11]马霄华,韩炜,党亚玲,费兵强1960年_2014年天山北麓气温和降水变化趋势及预测研究[J].环境科学与管理,2017(9):48-52.
[12]刘德祥,董安祥,陆登荣.中国西北地区近43年气候变化及其对农业生产的影响[J].干旱地区农业研究,2005,23(2):195-201.
[13]徐影,丁一汇,赵宗慈.人类活动引起的我国西北地区21世纪温度和降水变化情景分析[J].冰川冻土,2003,25(3):328-330
[14]刘青春,秦宁生,许维俊,等.长江源流量对长江源流域气候年代际变化的响应[J].气象科技,2008(6):102-107.
[15]叶金印,黄勇,张春莉,等.近50年淮河流域气候变化时空特征分析[J].生态环境学报,2016,25(1):84-91.
[16]陈亮,陈克龙,刘宝康,等.近50a青海湖流域气候变化特征分析[J].干旱气象,2011,29(4):487-483.
[17]宋敏红,马耀明,张宇,等.2011雅鲁藏布江流域气温变化特征及趋势分析[J].气候与环境研究,16(6):760-766.
[18]许月卿,李双成,蔡运龙.基于小波分析的河北平原降水变化规律研究.中国科学:D辑,2004,34(12):1176-1183.
[19]李春梅,李双成,王红亚.贵州麦岗水库小流域降水变化特征的小波分析[J].地理科学进展,2012(1):32-39.
[20]邱海军,曹明明,曾彬.基于小波分析的西安降水时间序列的变化特征[J].中国农业气象,2011,32(1):23-27.
[21]高蓓,栗珂,李艳丽.陕西近40年气候变化特征的分析[J].成都信息工程学院学报,2006(4):290-295.