近50年黑龙江省初霜日变化影响因子及预测模型建立的研究
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摘要
为了达到提前做好初霜日预测的目的,利用实际监测1961-2011a初霜日、终霜日、无霜日数及有关气象因子,其中包括月、季平均气温,月、季降水量等资料。采用趋势分析和统计相关计算、等级的划分等方法,分析了近50年初、终霜日与无霜日、夏季温度年际变化特点。结果表明,20世纪80年代后随着全球气候暖化,初霜日与终霜日大有后延与提前及无霜日数增加的特点和夏季温度升高的趋势。相关分析表明,影响初霜日变化重要因子为前期5月终霜日的反相关变化和无霜日数的正相关变化。并依此关系构建了直角三角形初霜冻发生日的预测模型。又根据直角三角形tgα=y/x将初霜日出现早晚划分成特早、偏早、正常、偏晚、特晚5个级别;并又利用了终霜日和夏季平均温度与无霜日数的相关关系组成了能够预测无霜日数的散布图;经2012-2017a6年预测实践检验全部正确。综上只要通过本地终霜日、无霜日数与初霜日关系就可构建直角三角形初霜冻日的预测模型进行预测以减轻对农业灾害损失目的。
In order to predict the first frost day in advance,the observation data from 1961 to 2011 are used and the interannual variation characteristics of the first frost day,the last frost day,the number of days without frost,and the summer temperature in recent 50 years are analyzed,by using the methods of trend analysis,statistical correlation calculation and classification. The results show that the first frost day is delayed,the last frost day is advanced,the number of frost-free days increases,and the summer temperature rises,with the global warming since the 1980 s. It shows that the important influencing factors of the first frost day are associated with the reverse correlation of the last frost day in May and the positive correlation of the number of frost-free days. The prediction model of the first frost date of right triangle is established,and the timing of the first frost day is divided into 5 grades:extra early,early,normal,late and extra late,according to the right triangle tgα = y/x. A scatter plot is constructed to predict the number of frost-free days,by using the correlation between the number of days without frostand the average temperature in summer. The methods are proved correct by the forecast practice test of 2012-2017. It is concluded that the prediction model of the first frost days in right triangle can be established by relationship between the number of the last frost days and the first frost days. Finally,the prediction model is used to reduce the loss of agricultural disaster.
In order to predict the first frost day in advance,the observation data from 1961 to 2011 are used and the interannual variation characteristics of the first frost day,the last frost day,the number of days without frost,and the summer temperature in recent 50 years are analyzed,by using the methods of trend analysis,statistical correlation calculation and classification. The results show that the first frost day is delayed,the last frost day is advanced,the number of frost-free days increases,and the summer temperature rises,with the global warming since the 1980 s. It shows that the important influencing factors of the first frost day are associated with the reverse correlation of the last frost day in May and the positive correlation of the number of frost-free days. The prediction model of the first frost date of right triangle is established,and the timing of the first frost day is divided into 5 grades:extra early,early,normal,late and extra late,according to the right triangle tgα = y/x. A scatter plot is constructed to predict the number of frost-free days,by using the correlation between the number of days without frostand the average temperature in summer. The methods are proved correct by the forecast practice test of 2012-2017. It is concluded that the prediction model of the first frost days in right triangle can be established by relationship between the number of the last frost days and the first frost days. Finally,the prediction model is used to reduce the loss of agricultural disaster.
引文
[1]王艳秋,高玉中,潘华盛,等.气候变暖对黑龙江省主要农作物的影响[J].气候变化研究进展,2007,3(6):1-6.WANG Yanqiu,GAO Yuzhong,PAN Huasheng,et al. Effects of climate warming on major crops in Heilongjiang Province[J]. Progress of Climate Change Research,2007,3(6):1-6.(in Chinese)
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[5]李彩霞,李俏,孙天一,等.气候变化对黑龙江省主要农作物产量的影响[j].自然灾害学报,2013,23(6):200-208.LI Caixia,LI Qiao,SUN Tianyi,et al. The impact of climate change on the output of major crops in Heilongjiang Province[J]. Journal of Natural Disasters,2013,23(6):200-208.(in Chinese)
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[7]杜军,向毓意.近40年拉萨霜期变化的气候特征分析[J].应用气象学报,1999,10(3):379-383.DU Jun,XIANG Yiyi. Analysis of climate characteristics of the change of the lasa frost periodin the past 40 years[J]. Journal of Applied Meteorology,1999,10(3):379-383.(in Chinese)
[8]钱锦霞,武捷,班胜林. 1951—2008年太原市霜冻发生特征分析[J].中国农学通报,2009,25(10):287-289.QIAN Jinxia,WU Jie,BAN Shenglin. Analysis of the characteristics of frost occurrence in Taiyuan City in 1951-2008[J]. Chinese Agricultural Bulletin,2009,25(10):287-289.(in Chinese)
[9]张磊,王静,张晓煜,等,近50a宁夏初、终霜日基本特征及变化趋势[J].干旱区研究,2014,31(6):1039-1045.ZHANG Lei,WANG Jing,ZHANG Xiaoyu,et al. Basic characteristics and changes of the last frost day and final frost day of the Ningxia in nearly50a[J]. Drought Zone Study,2014,31(6):1039-1045.(in Chinese)
[10]孔祥良,冯长涛,曹东浩,等.临清市近30a初终霜日及无霜期的变化特征[J].河北农业科学,2014,18(2):97-99.KONG Xiangliang,FENG Changtao,CAO Donghao,et al. The characteristics of changes of the final frost day and day without frost number of Linqing City near 30a[J]. Hebei Agricultural Science,2014,18(2):97-99.(in Chinese)
[11]高永刚,王育光,温秀卿,等.黑龙江省43a初霜冻时空特征分析及对主要作物安全成熟的影响[J].黑龙江气象,2005,4:4-6.GAO Yonggang,WANG Yuguang,WEN Xiuqing,et al. Analysis of the space-time characteristics of the final frost day in 43a Heilongjiang Province and its impact on the safety and maturity of major crops[J]. Heilongjiang Meteorological,2005,4:4-6.(in Chinese)
[12]段兴武,谢云,刘刚.黑龙江粮食生产对气候变化影响的脆弱性分析[J].中国农业气象,2008,29(1):6-11.DUAN Xingwu,XIE Yun,LIU Gang. Vulnerability analysis of the impact of the Heilongjiang food production on climate change[J]. China Agricultural Meteorology,2008,29(1):6-11.(in Chinese)
[13]郑红,魏磊,潘华盛,等.黑龙江终霜日变化特征及对粮食生产影响的分析[J].中国农学通报,2016,32(11):88-94.ZHENG Hong,WEI Lei,PAN Huasheng,et al. Analysis of the characteristics of the last frost day in Heilongjiang and its impact on grain production[J]. China Agricultural Bulletin,2016,32(11):88-94.(in Chinese)
[14]叶殿秀,张勇. 1961—2007年我国霜冻变化特征[J].应用气象学报,2008,19(6):661-665.YE Dianxiu,ZHANG Yong. China's frost change characteristics in1961-2007[J]. Journal of Applied Meteorology,2008,19(6):661-665.(in Chinese)
[15]于培彦.永宁县终霜日的AR模式及预报[J].宁夏农学院学报,1989,10(2):56-60.YU Peiyan. AR model and forecast of the last frost day in Yongning County[J]. Journal of Ningxia Agricultural College,1989,10(2):56-60.(in Chinese)
[16]陈丽,吕非.霜冻对农业的影响及其预报方法[J].黑龙江气象,1998,1:42-44.CHEN Li,LV Fei. influence of the final frost day on agriculture and its forecasting methods[J]. Heilongjiang Meteorology,1998,1:42-44.(in Chinese)
[17]魏凤英.现代气候统计诊断与预测技术(第二版)[M].北京气象出版社,2007:63-66.WEI Fengying. Modern Climate Statistics Diagnosis and Prediction Technology(Second Edition)[M]. Beijing Meteorological Publishing House,2007:63-66.(in Chinese)
[18]爱华计算机工作室.最小二乘法原理[EB/OL]. Http://www. eaihua. com/ahrjyl. htm.Aihua Computer Workroom-Principle of Least Square Method[EB/OL]. H Ttp://www. eaihua. com/ahrjyl. htm.(in Chinese)
[19]朱伯承.统计天气预报[M].上海:上海科学技术出版社,1981:88-90.ZHU Bocheng. Statistical Weather Forecast[M]. Shanghai:Shanghai Science and Technology Press,1981:88-90.(in Chinese)
[20]潘华盛. 20世纪80年代以来黑龙江气候变暖的初步分析[J].气候与环境研究,2003,8(3):348-355.PAN Huasheng. Preliminary analysis of climate warming in Heilongjiang since the 1980s[J]. Climate and Environment Research,2003,8(3):348-355.(in Chinese)
[21]潘华盛,王勇,邹滨,等.黑龙江省2012年后由暖干转暖湿型气候变化及预测分析[J].黑龙江大学工程学报,2013,4(3):45-50.PAN Huasheng,WANG Yong,ZOU Bin,et al. Heilongjiang Province after 2012 by warm dry and warm wet climate change and prediction analysis[J]. Journal of Engineering,Heilongjiang University,2013,4(3):45-50.(in Chinese)
[22]周秀杰,张桂华,郑红,等.黑龙江省气候变暖对极端天气气事件的影响[J].气象,2004,30(11):47-50.ZHOU Xiujie,ZHANG Guihua,ZHENG Hong,et al. The impact of climate warming in Heilongjiang Province on extreme weather events[J].Meteorology,2004,30(11):47-50.(in Chinese)
[23]郑红,郑凯,张桂华,等.气候变暖对黑龙江省灾害天气气候影响及减灾对策[J].自然灾害学报,2003,12(4):149-154.ZHENG Hong,ZHENG Kai,ZHANG Guihua,et al. Impact of the climate warming on the disaster weather climate and its mitigation measures in Heilongjiang Province[J]. Journal of Natural Disasters,2003,12(4):149-154.(in Chinese)
[24]姚俊英,于宏敏,朱红蕊,等.黑龙江省玉米初霜冻致灾临界气象条件风险区划[J].中国农学通报,2012,28(11):312-316.YAO Junying,YU Hongmin,ZHU Hongrui,et al. The risk zoning of critical meteorological conditions of corn early frost disasterin Heilongjiang Province[J]. China Agricultural Bulletin,2012,28(11):312-316.(in Chinese)
[25]朱乾根,林锦瑞,袁绍文,等.天气学原理和方法[M].北京:气象出版社,2007.ZHU Qiangen,LIN Jinrui,YUAN Shaowen,et al. The Principles and Methods of Weather[M]. Beijing:Meteorological Press,2007.(in Chinese)
[2]潘华盛,林谦,李彩霞,等.气候变化(暖)对黑龙江粮食生产的影响及适应对策[J].黑龙江大学工程学报,2014,5(4):8-13.PAN Huasheng,LIN Qian,LI Caixia,et al. The impact of climate change(warm)on Heilongjiang grain production and adaptation measures[J].Journal of Engineering,Heilongjiang University,2014,5(4):8-13.(in Chinese)
[3]张健,刘玉莲,宋丽华.黑龙江省秋季初霜冻的气侯分析[J].黑龙江气象,2005,3:18-21.ZHANG Jian,ZHANG Yulian,SONG Lihua. Analysis of the climate of the first frost day inthe autumn of Heilongjiang Province[J]. Heilongjiang Meteorological,2005,3:18-21.(in Chinese)
[4]韩荣青,李维京,艾婉秀,等.中国北方初霜冻日期变化及其对农业的影响[J].地理学报,2010,65(5):525-532.HAN Rongqing,LI Weijing,AI Wanxiu,et al. Changes of the first frost day in northern China and its impact on agriculture[J]. Journal of Geography,2010,65(5):525-532.(in Chinese)
[5]李彩霞,李俏,孙天一,等.气候变化对黑龙江省主要农作物产量的影响[j].自然灾害学报,2013,23(6):200-208.LI Caixia,LI Qiao,SUN Tianyi,et al. The impact of climate change on the output of major crops in Heilongjiang Province[J]. Journal of Natural Disasters,2013,23(6):200-208.(in Chinese)
[6]潘华盛,刘育生.三江平原天气气候与农业[M].北京:气象出版社,1991:123.PAN Huasheng,LIU Yusheng. Weatherand and Climate and Agriculture in Sanjiang,Plain[M]. Beijing:Meteorological Press,1991:123.(in Chinese)
[7]杜军,向毓意.近40年拉萨霜期变化的气候特征分析[J].应用气象学报,1999,10(3):379-383.DU Jun,XIANG Yiyi. Analysis of climate characteristics of the change of the lasa frost periodin the past 40 years[J]. Journal of Applied Meteorology,1999,10(3):379-383.(in Chinese)
[8]钱锦霞,武捷,班胜林. 1951—2008年太原市霜冻发生特征分析[J].中国农学通报,2009,25(10):287-289.QIAN Jinxia,WU Jie,BAN Shenglin. Analysis of the characteristics of frost occurrence in Taiyuan City in 1951-2008[J]. Chinese Agricultural Bulletin,2009,25(10):287-289.(in Chinese)
[9]张磊,王静,张晓煜,等,近50a宁夏初、终霜日基本特征及变化趋势[J].干旱区研究,2014,31(6):1039-1045.ZHANG Lei,WANG Jing,ZHANG Xiaoyu,et al. Basic characteristics and changes of the last frost day and final frost day of the Ningxia in nearly50a[J]. Drought Zone Study,2014,31(6):1039-1045.(in Chinese)
[10]孔祥良,冯长涛,曹东浩,等.临清市近30a初终霜日及无霜期的变化特征[J].河北农业科学,2014,18(2):97-99.KONG Xiangliang,FENG Changtao,CAO Donghao,et al. The characteristics of changes of the final frost day and day without frost number of Linqing City near 30a[J]. Hebei Agricultural Science,2014,18(2):97-99.(in Chinese)
[11]高永刚,王育光,温秀卿,等.黑龙江省43a初霜冻时空特征分析及对主要作物安全成熟的影响[J].黑龙江气象,2005,4:4-6.GAO Yonggang,WANG Yuguang,WEN Xiuqing,et al. Analysis of the space-time characteristics of the final frost day in 43a Heilongjiang Province and its impact on the safety and maturity of major crops[J]. Heilongjiang Meteorological,2005,4:4-6.(in Chinese)
[12]段兴武,谢云,刘刚.黑龙江粮食生产对气候变化影响的脆弱性分析[J].中国农业气象,2008,29(1):6-11.DUAN Xingwu,XIE Yun,LIU Gang. Vulnerability analysis of the impact of the Heilongjiang food production on climate change[J]. China Agricultural Meteorology,2008,29(1):6-11.(in Chinese)
[13]郑红,魏磊,潘华盛,等.黑龙江终霜日变化特征及对粮食生产影响的分析[J].中国农学通报,2016,32(11):88-94.ZHENG Hong,WEI Lei,PAN Huasheng,et al. Analysis of the characteristics of the last frost day in Heilongjiang and its impact on grain production[J]. China Agricultural Bulletin,2016,32(11):88-94.(in Chinese)
[14]叶殿秀,张勇. 1961—2007年我国霜冻变化特征[J].应用气象学报,2008,19(6):661-665.YE Dianxiu,ZHANG Yong. China's frost change characteristics in1961-2007[J]. Journal of Applied Meteorology,2008,19(6):661-665.(in Chinese)
[15]于培彦.永宁县终霜日的AR模式及预报[J].宁夏农学院学报,1989,10(2):56-60.YU Peiyan. AR model and forecast of the last frost day in Yongning County[J]. Journal of Ningxia Agricultural College,1989,10(2):56-60.(in Chinese)
[16]陈丽,吕非.霜冻对农业的影响及其预报方法[J].黑龙江气象,1998,1:42-44.CHEN Li,LV Fei. influence of the final frost day on agriculture and its forecasting methods[J]. Heilongjiang Meteorology,1998,1:42-44.(in Chinese)
[17]魏凤英.现代气候统计诊断与预测技术(第二版)[M].北京气象出版社,2007:63-66.WEI Fengying. Modern Climate Statistics Diagnosis and Prediction Technology(Second Edition)[M]. Beijing Meteorological Publishing House,2007:63-66.(in Chinese)
[18]爱华计算机工作室.最小二乘法原理[EB/OL]. Http://www. eaihua. com/ahrjyl. htm.Aihua Computer Workroom-Principle of Least Square Method[EB/OL]. H Ttp://www. eaihua. com/ahrjyl. htm.(in Chinese)
[19]朱伯承.统计天气预报[M].上海:上海科学技术出版社,1981:88-90.ZHU Bocheng. Statistical Weather Forecast[M]. Shanghai:Shanghai Science and Technology Press,1981:88-90.(in Chinese)
[20]潘华盛. 20世纪80年代以来黑龙江气候变暖的初步分析[J].气候与环境研究,2003,8(3):348-355.PAN Huasheng. Preliminary analysis of climate warming in Heilongjiang since the 1980s[J]. Climate and Environment Research,2003,8(3):348-355.(in Chinese)
[21]潘华盛,王勇,邹滨,等.黑龙江省2012年后由暖干转暖湿型气候变化及预测分析[J].黑龙江大学工程学报,2013,4(3):45-50.PAN Huasheng,WANG Yong,ZOU Bin,et al. Heilongjiang Province after 2012 by warm dry and warm wet climate change and prediction analysis[J]. Journal of Engineering,Heilongjiang University,2013,4(3):45-50.(in Chinese)
[22]周秀杰,张桂华,郑红,等.黑龙江省气候变暖对极端天气气事件的影响[J].气象,2004,30(11):47-50.ZHOU Xiujie,ZHANG Guihua,ZHENG Hong,et al. The impact of climate warming in Heilongjiang Province on extreme weather events[J].Meteorology,2004,30(11):47-50.(in Chinese)
[23]郑红,郑凯,张桂华,等.气候变暖对黑龙江省灾害天气气候影响及减灾对策[J].自然灾害学报,2003,12(4):149-154.ZHENG Hong,ZHENG Kai,ZHANG Guihua,et al. Impact of the climate warming on the disaster weather climate and its mitigation measures in Heilongjiang Province[J]. Journal of Natural Disasters,2003,12(4):149-154.(in Chinese)
[24]姚俊英,于宏敏,朱红蕊,等.黑龙江省玉米初霜冻致灾临界气象条件风险区划[J].中国农学通报,2012,28(11):312-316.YAO Junying,YU Hongmin,ZHU Hongrui,et al. The risk zoning of critical meteorological conditions of corn early frost disasterin Heilongjiang Province[J]. China Agricultural Bulletin,2012,28(11):312-316.(in Chinese)
[25]朱乾根,林锦瑞,袁绍文,等.天气学原理和方法[M].北京:气象出版社,2007.ZHU Qiangen,LIN Jinrui,YUAN Shaowen,et al. The Principles and Methods of Weather[M]. Beijing:Meteorological Press,2007.(in Chinese)
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