基于最优参数评估燃料电池发动机可靠性研究
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摘要
燃料电池可靠性是评价燃料汽车质量好坏的重要参数指标。根据调研得到的某燃料电池汽车发动机的首次故障里程数据,提出运用一致最小方差无偏估计的点估计和最短置信区间的区间估计方法对燃料电池发动机进行可靠性评估,结果表明:该方法使得发动机待估参数的误差能够达到最小,能更早更有效地预测燃料电池发动机首次故障的行驶里程和平均剩余寿命。
Fuel cell reliability is an important parameters indicator for evaluating the quality of fuel vehicles. Based on the first failure mileage data of a certain fuel cell vehicle engine obtained from the investigation, a point estimation method based on uniformly minimum variance unbiased estimate and the shortest confidence interval estimation method to evaluate the reliability of the fuel cell engine were proposed in this paper. The results indicated that this method can make the error of the engine underestimation parameter reach the minimum. At the same time, the mileage of the first failure and the average remaining life of the fuel cell engine can be predicted earlier and more effectively.
Fuel cell reliability is an important parameters indicator for evaluating the quality of fuel vehicles. Based on the first failure mileage data of a certain fuel cell vehicle engine obtained from the investigation, a point estimation method based on uniformly minimum variance unbiased estimate and the shortest confidence interval estimation method to evaluate the reliability of the fuel cell engine were proposed in this paper. The results indicated that this method can make the error of the engine underestimation parameter reach the minimum. At the same time, the mileage of the first failure and the average remaining life of the fuel cell engine can be predicted earlier and more effectively.
引文
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[2]胡君,魏厚敏,蒋习军,等.发动机可靠性试验方法及研究[J].内燃机,2009(1):43-45.
[3]熊茜,陈启宏,全睿.基于神经网络专家系统的燃料电池发动机故障诊断系统设计[J].仪表技术,2010(4):31-34,38.
[4]全睿,黄亮,谢长君,等.基于模糊神经网络的燃料电池发动机故障诊断[J].华中科技大学学报:自然科学版,2009,37(S1):114-117,139.
[5]丛伟,陈晓阳,王志坚,等.Weibull分布产品小样本定时截尾试验方案下的可靠性评估[J].中国机械工程,2013,24(14):1891-1896.
[6]李正,宋保维,毛昭勇.无失效指数分布参数的模糊加权最小二乘估计[J].系统仿真学报,2005,17(6):1373-1375.
[7]Zhao W,Fan F,Wang W.Non-linear partial least squares response surface method for structural reliability analysis[J].Reliability Engineering&System Safety,2017,161:69-77.
[8]苑惠娟,郭建英,苏子美,等.国产钻井泥浆泵活塞缸套摩擦副可靠性研究[J].中国机械工程,2013,24(11):1425-1430.
[9]王素芳.基于神经网络的汽车变速器可靠性研究[D].长沙:中南大学,2007.
[10]Thas O,Ottoy J P.Some generalizations of the anderson-darling statistic[J].Stat Probab Lett,2003,64(3):255-261.
[11]姜潮,邓青青,张旺.考虑参数相关性的结构二阶可靠性分析方法[J].中国机械工程,2016,27(22):3068-3074,3081.
[12]王霄锋.汽车可靠性工程基础[M].北京:清华大学出版社,2007.
[13]Dudewicz E J,Mishra S.Modern Mathematical Statistics[M].Wiley,1989.
[14]茆诗松,王静龙,濮晓龙.高等数理统计[M].北京:高等教育出版社,1998.
[15]Hurt J.Estimates of reliability for the normal distribution.[J].Apl Mat,1980(6):432-444.
[16]郭宝才.几种分布参数置信区间的最短化研究[D].南京:河海大学,2003..
[17]Stepan Yu.Gatilov.Using low-rank approximation of the jacobian matrix in the newton-raphson method to solve certain singular equations[J].Journal of Computational and Applied Mathematics,2014,272:8-24.
[18]Schubert A L,Hagemann D,Voss A,et al.Evaluating the model fit of diffusion models with the root mean square error of approximation[J].J Math Psychol,2016.
[19]Engel S J,Gilmartin B J,Bongort K,et al.Prognostics,the real issues involved with predicting life remaining[C].Aerospace Conference,2002,6:457-469.