基于2014年云南地区地震的地震预警参数与快速震级估算研究
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摘要
根据2014年云南地区M6.1盈江地震、M6.5鲁甸地震和M6.6景谷地震的主震、余震P波初期部分的信息,研究了地震震级快速估算中3个预警参数(最大卓越周期τpmax、特征周期τc和最大位移幅值Pd)与震级的相关性,提出了云南地区的震级估计模型,并对其进行分析,再和其它地区的震级估计模型进行对比和评价。结果表明:3种方法均能在短时间内(2~4 s)有效地进行震级估算,Pd方法估算效果最优,τc方法次优,τpmax方法较弱。在震级较大的主震震级估计中,3种方法均没有出现明显的震级低估(震级饱和)现象。对于τpmax方法,云南地区的估计模型与南加州地区较为接近,但与四川地区区别较大,可能与该方法的计算稳定性有关;而τc方法的估计模型则与四川及世界其它地区均较为接近,更具有普适性和稳定性。在地震预警系统的实际应用中,由于云南地区尚未建立密集的地震监测台网系统,因此在短时间内难以得到较为准确的震中距。与震源距相独立的τpmax和τc两种算法则显得较为实用,其中:τc方法略优于τpmax方法,同时能较好地满足地震预警系统的精度要求,因此推荐使用τc方法应用于云南地区地震预警系统中的快速震级估算。
In this research,the correlation between magnitude and three earthquake early warning parameters(τpmax,τcand Pd) obtained from the early portion of P-waves for the main-and after-shocks of M 6. 1 Yingjiang earthquake,M 6. 5 Ludian earthquake and M 6. 6 Jinggu earthquake in 2014 in Yunnan were studied. And the paper estimation models were analyzed,evaluated and compared with other regions. The results indicate that three methods can be effectively used for magnitude estimation in a short time(2 ~ 4 s). In general,Pdmethod works best in magnitude estimation,and then τcmethod,finally τpmaxmethod. For large scale earthquakes,all of three methods do not come up the obvious magnitude underestimation( saturation) phenomenon. For τpmaxmethod,the model in Yunnan is close to the one in Southern California instead of Sichuan region,which might be due to the stability of this algorithm. For τcmethod,the model in Yunnan is close to the one in Sichuan and other regions withthe higher feasibility and stability. In the practical application of earthquake early warning system,at present the seismic networks have not yet been set up in Yunnan. Hence,it is difficult to get a relatively accurate epicentral distance in a short time. So τpmaxand τcmethod which are independent with distance are more practical. What is more,τcmethod is slightly better than τpmaxmethod and it can well satisfy the requirement of the earthquake early warning system. τcmethod is recommended to apply in rapid magnitude estimation of earthquake early warning system in Yunnan region.
In this research,the correlation between magnitude and three earthquake early warning parameters(τpmax,τcand Pd) obtained from the early portion of P-waves for the main-and after-shocks of M 6. 1 Yingjiang earthquake,M 6. 5 Ludian earthquake and M 6. 6 Jinggu earthquake in 2014 in Yunnan were studied. And the paper estimation models were analyzed,evaluated and compared with other regions. The results indicate that three methods can be effectively used for magnitude estimation in a short time(2 ~ 4 s). In general,Pdmethod works best in magnitude estimation,and then τcmethod,finally τpmaxmethod. For large scale earthquakes,all of three methods do not come up the obvious magnitude underestimation( saturation) phenomenon. For τpmaxmethod,the model in Yunnan is close to the one in Southern California instead of Sichuan region,which might be due to the stability of this algorithm. For τcmethod,the model in Yunnan is close to the one in Sichuan and other regions withthe higher feasibility and stability. In the practical application of earthquake early warning system,at present the seismic networks have not yet been set up in Yunnan. Hence,it is difficult to get a relatively accurate epicentral distance in a short time. So τpmaxand τcmethod which are independent with distance are more practical. What is more,τcmethod is slightly better than τpmaxmethod and it can well satisfy the requirement of the earthquake early warning system. τcmethod is recommended to apply in rapid magnitude estimation of earthquake early warning system in Yunnan region.
引文
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[18]KANAMORI H.Real-time seismology and earthquake damage mitigation[J].Annu Rev Earth Pl Sci,2005,33:195-214.
[19]CUA G B,FISCHER M,HEATON T,et al.Real-time performance of the virtual seismologist earthquake early warning algorithm in southern California[J],Seismol.Res.Lett.,2009,80(5):740–747.
[20]WU Y M,ZHAO Li.Magnitude estimation using the first three seconds P-wave amplitude in earthquake early warning[J],Geophys.Res.Letters,2006,33:L16312.
[21]LANCIERI M,ZOLLO A.A bayesian approach to the real-time estimation of magnitude from the early P and S wave displacement peaks,J.Geophys.Res.2008,113:B12302.
[22]HORIUCHI S,NEGISHI H,ABE K,et al.An automatic processing system for broadcasting system earthquake alarms,Bull.Sesim.Soc.Am.,2005,95:347-353.
[2]张勇,许力生,陈运泰,等.2014年8月3日云南鲁甸Mw6.1(Ms6.5)地震破裂过程[J].地球物理学报,2014,57(9):3052-3059.ZHANG Yong,XU Lisheng,CHEN Yuntai,et al.Rupture process of the 3 August 2014 Ludian,Yunnan,Mw6.1(Ms6.5)earthquake.Chinese Journal of Geophysics,2014,57(9):3052-3059.(in Chinese)
[3]徐甫坤,刘自凤,张竹琪,李静,刘丽芳,苏有锦.2015b.2014年云南景谷Ms6.6地震序列重定位与震源机制解特征[J].地球科学-中国地质大学学报,40(10):1473-1754.XU Fukun,LIU Zifeng,ZHANG Zhuqi,et al.Double difference relocation and focal mechanisms of the Jinggu Ms6.6 earthquake sequences in Yunnan Province in 2014[J],Editorial Committee of Earth Science-Journal of China University of Geosciences,2015,40(10):1473-1754.(in Chinese)
[4]NAKAMURA Y.Development of earthquake early-warning system for the Shinkansen,some recent earthquake engineering research and practical in Japan,The Japanese National Committee of the International Association for Earthquake Engineering,1984,224-238.
[5]NAKAMURA Y.On the urgent earthquake detection and alarm system(Ur EDAS),Proceedings of 9th World Conference on Earthquake Engineering,1988,2:673-678.
[6]ODAKA T,ASHIYA K,TSUKADA S,et al.A new method of quickly estimating epicentral distance and magnitude from a single seismic record,Bull.seism.Soc.Am.,2003,93:526-532.
[7]ESPINOSA-ARANDA J M,CUELLAR A,GARCIA A,et al.Evolution of the Mexican seismic alert system(SASMEX),Seism.Res.Letters,2009,80(5):694-706.
[8]BOSE M,IONESCU C,WENZEL F.Earthquake early warning for Bucharest,Romania:novel and revised scaling relations,Geophys.Res.Lett.,2007,34.
[9]ALCIK H,OZEL O,APAYDIN N.A study on warning algorithms for Instabul earthquake early warning system,Geophys.Res.Lett.,2009,36:L00B05.
[10]ZOLLO A,LANCIERI M,NIELSEN S.Earthquake magnitude estimation from peak amplitudes of very early seismic signals on strong motion,Geophys.Res.Letters,2006,33:L23312.
[11]ZOLLO A,IANNACCONE G,LANCIERI M.Earthquake early warning system in southern Italy,Geophys.Res.Letters,2009,36(5):121-136.
[12]ALLEN R M,KANAMORI H.The potential for earthquake early warning in southern California,Science,2003,300(5620):786-789.
[13]ALLEN R M,GASPARINI P,KAMIGAICHI O.The status of earthquake early warning around the world:an introductory overview,Seismol.Res.Lett.,2009,80(5):682-693.
[14]BOSE M,HAUKSSON E,SOLANKI K,et al.Real-time testing of the on-site warning algorithm in southern California and its performance during the July 29,2008 Mw 5.4 Chino Hills earthquake,Geophys.Res.Lett.,2009,36,L00B03.
[15]WU YM,KANAMORI H.Experiment on an onsite early warning method for Taiwan early warning system[J],Bull.Seismol.Soc.Am.,2005,95:347-353.
[16]HSIAO N C,WU,Y M,ZHAO,TC,et al.Development of earthquake early warning system in Taiwan[J],Geophys Res Lett,2009,L00B02.
[17]WURMAN G,ALLEN R M,LOMBARD P.Toward earthquake early warning in northern California[J],Journal of Geophysical Research,2007,112:B08311.
[18]KANAMORI H.Real-time seismology and earthquake damage mitigation[J].Annu Rev Earth Pl Sci,2005,33:195-214.
[19]CUA G B,FISCHER M,HEATON T,et al.Real-time performance of the virtual seismologist earthquake early warning algorithm in southern California[J],Seismol.Res.Lett.,2009,80(5):740–747.
[20]WU Y M,ZHAO Li.Magnitude estimation using the first three seconds P-wave amplitude in earthquake early warning[J],Geophys.Res.Letters,2006,33:L16312.
[21]LANCIERI M,ZOLLO A.A bayesian approach to the real-time estimation of magnitude from the early P and S wave displacement peaks,J.Geophys.Res.2008,113:B12302.
[22]HORIUCHI S,NEGISHI H,ABE K,et al.An automatic processing system for broadcasting system earthquake alarms,Bull.Sesim.Soc.Am.,2005,95:347-353.