雷州市沿海风暴潮淹没危险性评估
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摘要
文章基于近岸海洋数值模式ADCIRC (a parallel advanced circulation model for oceanic, coastal and estuarine waters)和近海波浪数值模式SWAN (simulating waves nearshore),建立雷州市高分辨率的风暴潮?海浪耦合漫滩数值模型,并反演了对雷州市影响较为严重的1415号台风"海鸥"的风暴潮过程。经过对比分析得出,波浪对雷州市沿海海域的风暴潮产生重要影响。然后以8007号台风路径为基础,构造了7个不同等级共35组台风风暴潮案例,计算分析出不同等级台风强度下雷州市风暴潮淹没范围及水深。900hPa等级下,雷州市淹没面积达到463.2km2。文章还构造了60组可能最大风暴潮事件集,计算得到雷州市可能最大台风风暴潮淹没范围及水深分布。在可能最大台风影响下,大量海水将漫过海堤,造成极其严重的淹没灾害,雷州市总的淹没面积可达602.0km2,其中465.8km2的淹没面积达到了危险性等级Ⅰ级,淹没水深大于3m。雷州市东岸的淹没灾害大于西岸。
A storm surge and wave coupled inundation simulation model for Lei Zhou coastal areas at high resolution has been established based on ADCIRC(a parallel advanced circulation model for oceanic, coastal and estuarine waters) and SWAN(simulating waves nearshore) ocean numerical models. A total of 1415 typhoon cases that seriously impacted Lei Zhou were simulated. The result of contrastive analysis shows that wave has a significant impact on storm surge in Lei Zhou coastal areas.We designed 35 typhoon cases based on 8007 typhoons, and reserve flooded area and submerged depth for seven different grades. The inundated area of Lei Zhou can reach 463.2 km2 under 900 hPa grade. We developed 60 cases of possible maximum storm surge and calculated the biggest inundated extent and depth. Under the impact of maximum typhoon, the sea water will spill over seawalls and cause serious flooding disaster. The total submerged area is 602.0 km2 in Lei Zhou. The area whose dangerousness is first grade with flooding depth bigger than 3 m is 465.8 km2. The eastern coastal areas of Lei Zhou will face larger storm surge disaster risk than the western coastal areas. The results of the study have important implications for guiding prevention and mitigation work of storm surge disaster in Lei Zhou.
A storm surge and wave coupled inundation simulation model for Lei Zhou coastal areas at high resolution has been established based on ADCIRC(a parallel advanced circulation model for oceanic, coastal and estuarine waters) and SWAN(simulating waves nearshore) ocean numerical models. A total of 1415 typhoon cases that seriously impacted Lei Zhou were simulated. The result of contrastive analysis shows that wave has a significant impact on storm surge in Lei Zhou coastal areas.We designed 35 typhoon cases based on 8007 typhoons, and reserve flooded area and submerged depth for seven different grades. The inundated area of Lei Zhou can reach 463.2 km2 under 900 hPa grade. We developed 60 cases of possible maximum storm surge and calculated the biggest inundated extent and depth. Under the impact of maximum typhoon, the sea water will spill over seawalls and cause serious flooding disaster. The total submerged area is 602.0 km2 in Lei Zhou. The area whose dangerousness is first grade with flooding depth bigger than 3 m is 465.8 km2. The eastern coastal areas of Lei Zhou will face larger storm surge disaster risk than the western coastal areas. The results of the study have important implications for guiding prevention and mitigation work of storm surge disaster in Lei Zhou.
引文
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何佩东,左军成,顾云碧,等,2015.普陀沿海风暴潮淹没危险性评估[J].海洋湖沼通报,(1):1-8.HE PEIDONG,ZUOJUNCHENG,GU YUNBI,et al,2015.Inundation risk assessment of storm surge along Putuo coastal areas[J].Transactions of Oceanology and Limnology,(1):1-8(in Chinese with English abstract).
李颖,方伟华,林伟,等,2014.可能最大风暴潮风险评估中各等级热带气旋设定方法[J].海洋科学,38(4):71-80.LIYING,FANG WEIHUA,LIN WEI,et al,2014.Parameterization of synthetic tropical cyclones at various scales for probable maximum storm surge risk modeling[J].Marine Sciences,38(4):71-80(in Chinese with English abstract).
刘秋兴,于福江,王培涛,等,2011.辐射应力对台风风暴潮预报的影响和数值研究[J].海洋学报,33(5):47-53.LIUQIUXING,YU FUJIANG,WANG PEITAO,et al,2011.Numerical study on storm surge forecasting considering wave-induced radiation stress[J].Acta Oceanologica Sinica,33(5):47-53(in Chinese with English abstract).
莎日娜,尹宝树,杨德周,等,2007.天津近岸台风暴潮漫滩数值模式研究[J].海洋科学,31(7):63-67.SHA RINA,YINBAOSHU,YANG DEZHOU,et al,2007.A numerical study on storm surge and inundation induced by hurricanes in the nearshore of Tianjin[J].Marine Sciences,31(7):63-67(in Chinese with English abstract).
王喜年,1989.开阔海风暴潮的数值计算[J].海洋通报,8(3):11-20(in Chinese).
王喜年,尹庆江,张保明,1991.中国海台风风暴潮预报模式的研究与应用[J].水科学进展,2(1):1-10.WANG XINIAN,YIN QINGJIANG,ZHANG BAOMING,1991.Research and applications of a forecasting model of typhoon surges in china seas[J].Advances in Water Science,2(1):1-10(in Chinese with English abstract).
吴玮,傅赐福,于福江,等,2012.温州近岸围堤对风暴潮漫滩影响的数值研究[J].海洋学研究,20(2):36-42.WU WEI,FU CIFU,YU FUJIANG,et al,2012.Numerical simulation of the influence of Wenzhou coastal dike on storm surge inundation[J].Journal of Marine Sciences,20(2):36-42(in Chinese with English abstract).
郑国诞,谢亚力,胡金春,等,2016.台州温岭市风暴潮淹没危险性分析[J].海洋预报,33(6):40-50.ZHENG GUODAN,XIEYALI,HU JINCHUN,et al,2016.Inundation risk assessment of typhoon storm surge along Taizhou Wenling city[J].Marine forecasts,33(6):40-50(in Chinese with English abstract).
周水华,李远芳,冯伟忠,等,2010.“0601”号台风控制下的广东近岸浪特征[J].海洋通报,29(2):130-134.ZHOUSHUIHUA,LI YUANFANG,FENG WEIZHONG,et al,2010.Wave characteristics dominated by typhoon named‘Pearl’[J].Marine Science Bulletin,29(2):130-134(in Chinese with English abstract).
中华人民共和国住房和城乡建设部,中华人民共和国国家质量监督检验检疫总局,2012.GB/T50663?2011核电厂工程水文技术规范[S].北京:中国计划出版社:1-116(in Chinese).
ATKINSON G D,HOLLIDAY C R,1977.Tropical cyclone minimum sea level pressure/maximum sustained wind relationship for the Western North Pacific[J].Monthly Weather Review,105(4):421-427.
BLAIN C A,MASSEY T,2004.Application of a coupled discontinuous-continuous galerkin finite element shallow water model to coastal ocean dynamics[J].Ocean Modelling,10(3-4):283-315.
FUJITA T,1952.Pressure distribution in typhoon[J].Geophysical Magazine,23:437-452.
HENDERSON F M,1966.Open channel flow[M].New York:Macmillan.
RIS R C,HOLTHUIJSEN L H,BOOIJ N,1999.A third-generation wave model for coastal regions 2.Verification[J].Journal of Geophysical Research,104(C4):7667-7681.
TAKAHASHI K,1939.Distribution of pressure and wind in a typhoon[J].Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan,17(2):417-421.
陈华伟,葛建忠,丁平兴,2010.波浪对台风风暴潮过程的影响分析[J].华东师范大学学报(自然科学版),(4):16-25.CHEN HUAWEI,GE JIANZHONG,DING PINGXING,2010.Analysis of storm surge’s process under the influence of waves[J].Journal of East China Normal University(Natural Science),(4):16-25(in Chinese with English abstract).
国家能源局,2011.NB/T25002?2011核电厂海工构筑物设计规范[S].北京:中国电力出版社:1-197(in Chinese).
国家核安全局政策法规处,1991.HAF0113核电厂安全导则汇编-核电厂设计基准热带气旋[G].北京:中国法制出版社:277-295(in Chinese).
何佩东,左军成,顾云碧,等,2015.普陀沿海风暴潮淹没危险性评估[J].海洋湖沼通报,(1):1-8.HE PEIDONG,ZUOJUNCHENG,GU YUNBI,et al,2015.Inundation risk assessment of storm surge along Putuo coastal areas[J].Transactions of Oceanology and Limnology,(1):1-8(in Chinese with English abstract).
李颖,方伟华,林伟,等,2014.可能最大风暴潮风险评估中各等级热带气旋设定方法[J].海洋科学,38(4):71-80.LIYING,FANG WEIHUA,LIN WEI,et al,2014.Parameterization of synthetic tropical cyclones at various scales for probable maximum storm surge risk modeling[J].Marine Sciences,38(4):71-80(in Chinese with English abstract).
刘秋兴,于福江,王培涛,等,2011.辐射应力对台风风暴潮预报的影响和数值研究[J].海洋学报,33(5):47-53.LIUQIUXING,YU FUJIANG,WANG PEITAO,et al,2011.Numerical study on storm surge forecasting considering wave-induced radiation stress[J].Acta Oceanologica Sinica,33(5):47-53(in Chinese with English abstract).
莎日娜,尹宝树,杨德周,等,2007.天津近岸台风暴潮漫滩数值模式研究[J].海洋科学,31(7):63-67.SHA RINA,YINBAOSHU,YANG DEZHOU,et al,2007.A numerical study on storm surge and inundation induced by hurricanes in the nearshore of Tianjin[J].Marine Sciences,31(7):63-67(in Chinese with English abstract).
王喜年,1989.开阔海风暴潮的数值计算[J].海洋通报,8(3):11-20(in Chinese).
王喜年,尹庆江,张保明,1991.中国海台风风暴潮预报模式的研究与应用[J].水科学进展,2(1):1-10.WANG XINIAN,YIN QINGJIANG,ZHANG BAOMING,1991.Research and applications of a forecasting model of typhoon surges in china seas[J].Advances in Water Science,2(1):1-10(in Chinese with English abstract).
吴玮,傅赐福,于福江,等,2012.温州近岸围堤对风暴潮漫滩影响的数值研究[J].海洋学研究,20(2):36-42.WU WEI,FU CIFU,YU FUJIANG,et al,2012.Numerical simulation of the influence of Wenzhou coastal dike on storm surge inundation[J].Journal of Marine Sciences,20(2):36-42(in Chinese with English abstract).
郑国诞,谢亚力,胡金春,等,2016.台州温岭市风暴潮淹没危险性分析[J].海洋预报,33(6):40-50.ZHENG GUODAN,XIEYALI,HU JINCHUN,et al,2016.Inundation risk assessment of typhoon storm surge along Taizhou Wenling city[J].Marine forecasts,33(6):40-50(in Chinese with English abstract).
周水华,李远芳,冯伟忠,等,2010.“0601”号台风控制下的广东近岸浪特征[J].海洋通报,29(2):130-134.ZHOUSHUIHUA,LI YUANFANG,FENG WEIZHONG,et al,2010.Wave characteristics dominated by typhoon named‘Pearl’[J].Marine Science Bulletin,29(2):130-134(in Chinese with English abstract).
中华人民共和国住房和城乡建设部,中华人民共和国国家质量监督检验检疫总局,2012.GB/T50663?2011核电厂工程水文技术规范[S].北京:中国计划出版社:1-116(in Chinese).
ATKINSON G D,HOLLIDAY C R,1977.Tropical cyclone minimum sea level pressure/maximum sustained wind relationship for the Western North Pacific[J].Monthly Weather Review,105(4):421-427.
BLAIN C A,MASSEY T,2004.Application of a coupled discontinuous-continuous galerkin finite element shallow water model to coastal ocean dynamics[J].Ocean Modelling,10(3-4):283-315.
FUJITA T,1952.Pressure distribution in typhoon[J].Geophysical Magazine,23:437-452.
HENDERSON F M,1966.Open channel flow[M].New York:Macmillan.
RIS R C,HOLTHUIJSEN L H,BOOIJ N,1999.A third-generation wave model for coastal regions 2.Verification[J].Journal of Geophysical Research,104(C4):7667-7681.
TAKAHASHI K,1939.Distribution of pressure and wind in a typhoon[J].Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan,17(2):417-421.