市政管网运行风险发生机理及评价指标体系
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摘要
为实现城市市政管网运行安全风险的快速科学评估,通过网络调查和实地调研的方式对管网运行安全事故进行收集和统计,并分析了主要风险因素的事故影响机理,包括第三方破坏、腐蚀、老化和温度变化。基于此,建立了市政管网运行安全风险评价指标体系,其中指标评分采用半定量法,指标权重采用层次分析法。试验结合某工业园区的燃气管网进行风险评估,结果表明:各指标的评分依据易于确定,可操作性强,评估结果与调研情况符合较好,适用于市政管网运行安全风险的快速评估。(图1,表9,参21)
In order to evaluate the operational safety risk of municipal pipeline networks rapidly and scientifically,the operational safety accidents of pipeline networks were collected and analyzed by means of online survey and field investigations. Then, the accident influence mechanisms of key risk elements were studied, including third-party damage,corrosion, aging and temperature change. Based on this, the risk evaluation index system for operational safety of municipal pipeline networks was established. In the system, the index scores are determined by semi-quantitative method and the index weights are computed by analytic hierarchy process. Finally, test was conducted on a certain industrial park and the risk of gas pipeline network was assessed. It is shown that the scoring criteria of each index can be determined easily and operated conveniently, and its evaluation results are in accordance with the survey results, so this risk evaluation index system is applicable to the fast risk evaluation of municipal pipe networks.(1 Figure, 9 Tables, 21 References)
In order to evaluate the operational safety risk of municipal pipeline networks rapidly and scientifically,the operational safety accidents of pipeline networks were collected and analyzed by means of online survey and field investigations. Then, the accident influence mechanisms of key risk elements were studied, including third-party damage,corrosion, aging and temperature change. Based on this, the risk evaluation index system for operational safety of municipal pipeline networks was established. In the system, the index scores are determined by semi-quantitative method and the index weights are computed by analytic hierarchy process. Finally, test was conducted on a certain industrial park and the risk of gas pipeline network was assessed. It is shown that the scoring criteria of each index can be determined easily and operated conveniently, and its evaluation results are in accordance with the survey results, so this risk evaluation index system is applicable to the fast risk evaluation of municipal pipe networks.(1 Figure, 9 Tables, 21 References)
引文
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[12]张鹏,陈小波,王晓娇.埋地管道土壤腐蚀后评价的逻辑结构模型[J].天然气工业,2013,33(5):120-125.ZHANG P,CHEN X B,WANG X J.A logic structure model of post evaluation of soil corrosion of buried pipelines[J].Natural Gas Industry,2013,33(5):120-125.
[13]张晓,帅健.基于内检测数据的管道腐蚀缺陷分布规律[J].油气储运,2018,37(9):980-985.ZHANG X,SHUAI J.Distribution regularities of pipeline corrosion defect based on in-line inspection data[J].Oil&Gas Storage and Transportation,2018,37(9):980-985.
[14]刘彦麟,彭星煜,姚东池,等.考虑失效相关性的管道腐蚀故障树新算法[J].油气储运,2019,38(1):31-39.LIU Y L,PENG X Y,YAO D C,et al.A new algorithm for fault tree of pipeline corrosion based on failure correlation[J].Oil&Gas Storage and Transportation,2019,38(1):31-39.
[15]牛荻涛,孙丛涛.混凝土碳化与氯离子侵蚀共同作用研究[J].硅酸盐学报,2013,41(8):1094-1099.NIU D T,SUN C T.Study on interaction of concrete carbonation and chloride corrosion[J].Journal of the Chinese Ceramic Society,2013,41(8):1094-1099.
[16]陈瑛.氯离子对供水管道土壤腐蚀影响机理研究[D].天津:天津大学,2015:10-11.CHEN Y.Research of the corrosion law of the effect of chloride on the water supply pipelines in the soil[D].Tianjin:Tianjin University,2015:10-11.
[17]董方园,郑山锁,宋明辰,等.高性能混凝土研究进展Ⅱ:耐久性能及寿命预测模型[J].材料导报,2018,32(3):496-502.DONG F Y,ZHENG S S,SONG M C,et al.Research progress of high performance concreteⅡ:durability and life prediction model[J].Materials Review,2018,32(3):496-502.
[18]魏丽丽,胡明玉,郑江,等.陶瓷抛光渣对水泥基材料碱集料反应的影响[J].硅酸盐学报,2018,46(11):1568-1574.WEI L L,HU M Y,ZHENG J,et al.Effect of ceramic polishing powder on alkali-aggregate reaction of cement-based materials[J].Journal of the Chinese Ceramic Society,2018,46(11):1568-1574.
[19]王亚楠,汪瑞清,胡群芳,等.城市供水管网管道结构稳定性风险评估模型[J].净水技术,2018(8):104-110.WANG Y N,WANG R Q,HU Q F,et al.Risk assessment model for structural stability of urban water supply pipeline[J].Water Purification Technology,2018(8):104-110.
[20]黄健陵,田苾.基于模糊事故树的施工现场地下管线泄漏风险分析[J].安全与环境学报,2017(6):2072-2078.HUANG J L,TIAN B.Risk analysis over the underground pipeline leakage in a construction site based on the fuzzy fault tree[J].Journal of Safety and Environmen,2017(6):2072-2078.
[21]马国光,李晓婷,董文浩.基于层次分析法和群决策的集输管道线路评价[J].油气储运,2016,35(1):91-95.MA G G,LI X T,DONG W H.Evaluation on the gathering pipeline route based on analytic hierarchy process(AHP)and group decision-making[J].Oil&Gas Storage and Transportation,2016,35(1):91-95.
[2]朱伟,翁文国,刘克会,等.城市地下管线运行安全风险评估[M].北京:科学出版社,2016:9-10.ZHU W,WENG W G,LIU K H,et al.Operational safety risk assessment of urban underground pipelines[M].Beijing:Science Press,2016:9-10.
[3]ZIO E.Challenges in the vulnerability and risk analysis of critical infrastructures[J].Reliability Engineering and System Safety,2016,152:137-150.
[4]HAN Z Y,WENG W G.An integrated quantitative risk analysis method for natural gas pipeline network[J].Journal of Prevention in the Process Industries,2010,23(3):428-436.
[5]何维华.关于城市供水管网综合评估方法的探讨[J].给水排水,2015,51(9):82-87.HE W H.Probe into comprehensive evaluation methods for urban water supply network[J].Water&Wastewater Engineering,2015,51(9):82-87.
[6]李星.城市雨水排水系统灾害风险分析及对策研究[D].合肥:合肥工业大学,2015:1-5.LI X.Risk assessment and management strategies of urban rainstorm waterlogging[D].Hefei:Hefei University of Technology,2015:1-5.
[7]殷跃平,张作辰,张开军.我国地面沉降现状及防治对策研究[J].中国地质灾害与防治学报,2005,16(2):1-8.YIN Y P,ZHANG Z C,ZHANG K J.Land subsidence and countermeasures for its prevention in China[J].The Chinese Journal of Geological Hazard and Control,2005,16(2):1-8.
[8]JIANG W G,RAO P Z,CAO R,et al.Comparative evaluation of geological disaster susceptibility using multi-regression methods and spatial accuracy validation[J].Journal of Geographical Sciences,2017,27(4):439-462.
[9]薛禹群,张云,叶淑君,等.中国地面沉降及其需要解决的几个问题[J].第四纪研究,2003,23(6):587-593.XUE Y Q,ZHANG Y,YE S J,et al.Land subsidence in China and its problems[J].Quaternary Sciences,2003,23(6):587-593.
[10]COLE I S,MARNEY D.The science of pipe corrosion:a review of the literature on the corrosion of ferrous metals in soils[J].Corrosion Science,2012,56(3):5-16.
[11]鄢标,张广晶,高强,等.普光气田高含硫腐蚀缺陷输气管道安全评价[J].油气储运,2019,38(1):45-50.YAN B,ZHANG G J,GAO Q,et al.Safety evaluation on highsulfur gas pipeline with corrosion defects in Puguang Gas Field[J].Oil&Gas Storage and Transportation,2019,38(1):45-50.
[12]张鹏,陈小波,王晓娇.埋地管道土壤腐蚀后评价的逻辑结构模型[J].天然气工业,2013,33(5):120-125.ZHANG P,CHEN X B,WANG X J.A logic structure model of post evaluation of soil corrosion of buried pipelines[J].Natural Gas Industry,2013,33(5):120-125.
[13]张晓,帅健.基于内检测数据的管道腐蚀缺陷分布规律[J].油气储运,2018,37(9):980-985.ZHANG X,SHUAI J.Distribution regularities of pipeline corrosion defect based on in-line inspection data[J].Oil&Gas Storage and Transportation,2018,37(9):980-985.
[14]刘彦麟,彭星煜,姚东池,等.考虑失效相关性的管道腐蚀故障树新算法[J].油气储运,2019,38(1):31-39.LIU Y L,PENG X Y,YAO D C,et al.A new algorithm for fault tree of pipeline corrosion based on failure correlation[J].Oil&Gas Storage and Transportation,2019,38(1):31-39.
[15]牛荻涛,孙丛涛.混凝土碳化与氯离子侵蚀共同作用研究[J].硅酸盐学报,2013,41(8):1094-1099.NIU D T,SUN C T.Study on interaction of concrete carbonation and chloride corrosion[J].Journal of the Chinese Ceramic Society,2013,41(8):1094-1099.
[16]陈瑛.氯离子对供水管道土壤腐蚀影响机理研究[D].天津:天津大学,2015:10-11.CHEN Y.Research of the corrosion law of the effect of chloride on the water supply pipelines in the soil[D].Tianjin:Tianjin University,2015:10-11.
[17]董方园,郑山锁,宋明辰,等.高性能混凝土研究进展Ⅱ:耐久性能及寿命预测模型[J].材料导报,2018,32(3):496-502.DONG F Y,ZHENG S S,SONG M C,et al.Research progress of high performance concreteⅡ:durability and life prediction model[J].Materials Review,2018,32(3):496-502.
[18]魏丽丽,胡明玉,郑江,等.陶瓷抛光渣对水泥基材料碱集料反应的影响[J].硅酸盐学报,2018,46(11):1568-1574.WEI L L,HU M Y,ZHENG J,et al.Effect of ceramic polishing powder on alkali-aggregate reaction of cement-based materials[J].Journal of the Chinese Ceramic Society,2018,46(11):1568-1574.
[19]王亚楠,汪瑞清,胡群芳,等.城市供水管网管道结构稳定性风险评估模型[J].净水技术,2018(8):104-110.WANG Y N,WANG R Q,HU Q F,et al.Risk assessment model for structural stability of urban water supply pipeline[J].Water Purification Technology,2018(8):104-110.
[20]黄健陵,田苾.基于模糊事故树的施工现场地下管线泄漏风险分析[J].安全与环境学报,2017(6):2072-2078.HUANG J L,TIAN B.Risk analysis over the underground pipeline leakage in a construction site based on the fuzzy fault tree[J].Journal of Safety and Environmen,2017(6):2072-2078.
[21]马国光,李晓婷,董文浩.基于层次分析法和群决策的集输管道线路评价[J].油气储运,2016,35(1):91-95.MA G G,LI X T,DONG W H.Evaluation on the gathering pipeline route based on analytic hierarchy process(AHP)and group decision-making[J].Oil&Gas Storage and Transportation,2016,35(1):91-95.