我国城市收缩的多维度识别及其驱动机制分析
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摘要
城市收缩是城市发育过程中一个客观的历史阶段,也是中国新型城镇化必须面对的重要挑战。在梳理收缩城市的基本内涵基础上,围绕人口、经济、空间这三个核心要素,提出了一套新的多维度收缩城市概念体系。然后,综合运用GIS空间分析、Logit回归分析等方法,识别出我国2010～2015年间的各类收缩城市,分析其空间分布特征,探讨其内在驱动机制。主要结论如下:(1) 2010～2015年,我国的单维度收缩城市以人口收缩城市为主,共计214个;经济收缩城市和空间收缩城市相对较少,分别为59个和21个。此外,我国还存在28个双维度收缩城市,3个全维度收缩城市。(2)东北地区是我国各类收缩城市的主要分布区域。(3)各类收缩城市的驱动机制存在较为明显的差异。(4)基于多维度收
urban shrinkage is an objective historical stage in the process of urban development,and it is an important challenge for the new urbanization in China. This paper sorted out the basic connotation of shrinking city,and then proposed a new multi-dimensional concept system of shrinking city which includes three core elements: population,economy and space. GIS spatial analysis and logit regression analysis were used for identifying the shrinking cities in China from 2010 to 2015,analyzing its spatial distribution characteristics,and exploring its internal driving mechanisms. The conclusions are as follows: (1) In 2010-2015,there were 214 population shrinking cities,59 economy shrinking cities,and 21 space shrinking cities in China. In addition,28 double-dimensional shrinking cities and 3 three-dimensional shrinking cities were identified for the same period. (2) Those shrinking cities were mainly distributed in the northeast of China. (3) The driving forces of various shrinking types are quite different. (4) This new multidimensional concept system can be used for the identification of shrinking city with multi-level and multi-dimensional,thus laying a solid foundation for the formulation of urban regulation and development strategies.
urban shrinkage is an objective historical stage in the process of urban development,and it is an important challenge for the new urbanization in China. This paper sorted out the basic connotation of shrinking city,and then proposed a new multi-dimensional concept system of shrinking city which includes three core elements: population,economy and space. GIS spatial analysis and logit regression analysis were used for identifying the shrinking cities in China from 2010 to 2015,analyzing its spatial distribution characteristics,and exploring its internal driving mechanisms. The conclusions are as follows: (1) In 2010-2015,there were 214 population shrinking cities,59 economy shrinking cities,and 21 space shrinking cities in China. In addition,28 double-dimensional shrinking cities and 3 three-dimensional shrinking cities were identified for the same period. (2) Those shrinking cities were mainly distributed in the northeast of China. (3) The driving forces of various shrinking types are quite different. (4) This new multidimensional concept system can be used for the identification of shrinking city with multi-level and multi-dimensional,thus laying a solid foundation for the formulation of urban regulation and development strategies.
引文
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[25]罗庆,李小建,杨慧敏.中国县域经济空间分布格局及其演化研究:1990年~2010年[J].经济经纬,2014,31(1):1-7.
[26]苏乃芳,李宏瑾,张怀清.有关GDP平减指数的再认识[J].经济学动态,2016(5):62-73.
[2]Hartt M.A review of Shrinking Cities:Understanding Urban Decline in the United States By Russell Weaver,Sharmistha Bagchi-Sen,Jason Knight,and Amy E.Frazier[J].Economic Geography,2018,94(1):94-96.
[3]Wiechmann T,Bontje M.Responding to Tough Times:Policy and Planning Strategies in Shrinking Cities[J].Political Communication,2015,23(1):1-11.
[4]Mykhnenko V,Turok I.East European Cities-Patterns of Growth and Decline,1960-2005[J].International Planning Studies,2008,13(4):311-342.
[5]Wiechmann T,Pallagst K M.Urban shrinkage in Germany and the USA:A Comparison of Transformation Patterns and Local Strategies[J].International Journal of Urban&Regional Research,2012,36(2):261-280.
[6]Martinez-Fernandez C,Audirac I,Fol S,et al.Shrinking Cities:Urban Challenges of Globalization[J].Int J Urban Reg Res,2012,36(2):213-225.
[7]赵丹,张京祥.竞争型收缩城市:现象、机制及对策---以江苏省射阳县为例[J].城市问题,2018(3):12-18.
[8]龙瀛,吴康,王江浩.中国收缩城市及其研究框架[J].现代城市研究,2015(9):14-19.
[9]Long Y,Wu K.Shrinking cities in a rapidly urbanizing China[J].Environment&Planning A,2016,48(2):220-222.
[10]The United Nations Human Settlements Programme.State of the World's Cities 2008/2009:Harmonious Cities[M].London:Earthscan,2010.
[11]吴康,孙东琪.城市收缩的研究进展与展望[J].经济地理,2017,37(11):59-67.
[12]杨振山,孙艺芸.城市收缩现象、过程与问题[J].人文地理,2015(4):6-10.
[13]徐博,庞德良.增长与衰退:国际城市收缩问题研究及对中国的启示[J].经济学家,2014(4):5-13.
[14]He S Y,Lee J,Zhou T,et al.Shrinking cities and resourcebased economy:The economic restructuring in China's mining cities[J].Cities,2017,60:75-83.
[15]杨东峰,殷成志.如何拯救收缩的城市:英国老工业城市转型经验及启示[J].国际城市规划,2013,28(6):50-56.
[16]王晓玲.收缩城市研究进展及战略思考[J].青岛科技大学学报(社会科学版),2017,33(1):1-8.
[17]周恺,钱芳芳.收缩城市:逆增长情景下的城市发展路径研究进展[J].现代城市研究,2015(9):2-13.
[18]高舒琦.收缩城市的现象、概念与研究溯源[J].国际城市规划,2017,32(3):50-58.
[19]Wiechmann T.Errors Expected-Aligning Urban Strategy with Demographic Uncertainty in Shrinking Cities[J].International Planning Studies,2008,13(4):431-446.
[20]Oswalt P.Shrinking Cities:Volume 2-Interventions[J].British Journal of Nutrition,2006,94(5):783-790.
[21]姜鹏,周静,崔勋.基于中日韩实例研究的收缩城市应对思辨[J].现代城市研究,2016(2):1-7.
[22]刘合林.收缩城市量化计算方法进展[J].现代城市研究,2016(2):17-22.
[23]Wolff M.Understanding the role of centralization processes for cities-Evidence from a spatial perspective of urban Europe 1990-2010[J].Cities,2017,75:20-29.
[24]李郇,吴康,龙瀛,等.局部收缩:后增长时代下的城市可持续发展争鸣[J].地理研究,2017,36(10):1997-2016.
[25]罗庆,李小建,杨慧敏.中国县域经济空间分布格局及其演化研究:1990年~2010年[J].经济经纬,2014,31(1):1-7.
[26]苏乃芳,李宏瑾,张怀清.有关GDP平减指数的再认识[J].经济学动态,2016(5):62-73.
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