基于多普勒雷达数据的强辐合场识别方法
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摘要
为了将对雷雨大风具有较强指示性的中层径向辐合(MARC)自动识别出来,利用"径向矩形映射"将放射状分布的雷达数据转变为格点数据;同时完成窗映射和等腰三角形检测模板的映射,从而在快速定位辐合点的基础上得到描述辐合点辐合强度及位置的参向量;以单仰角最强辐合点确定剖线,获得显示MARC的较佳剖面,得到MARC的深度信息.提出从辐合点生成辐合带,再借辐合带走向订正辐合强度的思想和算法,有效克服单仰角上MARC的低估甚至漏检的问题.测试结果表明,融入订正策略的从辐合点到辐合线再到辐合场的识别方法和量化参量,使通过检出的MARC对实际伴有强辐合现象的雷雨大风的报准率达到94.87%,,平均提前量为20.6,min,空报率低于6%,.
In order to identify the mid-altitude radial convergence(MARC)which is a good indicator of the surface damaging winds,a "radial rectangular map" is proposed to transform the data from radar coordinate data into a new coordinate system,based on which the convergence zone can be quickly recognized by the regional segmentation algorithm.Then,the specific template is designed to calculate eigenvector of each point of the convergence line.In this way we can get the strong convergence field in the radar image at each single elevation angle.After the matching of strong convergent regions at different elevation angles,we can determine the position of the section and locate the MARC by the parameter vectors of the significant convergence points.The correction method of convergence speed difference based on the trend of convergence lines is used to overcome the problem of underestimation or even missed detection of strong convergence.Experimental results show that the combination of MARC automatic identification and correction algorithm makes the accurate rate of surface damaging winds prediction reach 94.87%, with an average lead-time of 20.6,min. And the rate of vacancy forecast is less than 6%.
In order to identify the mid-altitude radial convergence(MARC)which is a good indicator of the surface damaging winds,a "radial rectangular map" is proposed to transform the data from radar coordinate data into a new coordinate system,based on which the convergence zone can be quickly recognized by the regional segmentation algorithm.Then,the specific template is designed to calculate eigenvector of each point of the convergence line.In this way we can get the strong convergence field in the radar image at each single elevation angle.After the matching of strong convergent regions at different elevation angles,we can determine the position of the section and locate the MARC by the parameter vectors of the significant convergence points.The correction method of convergence speed difference based on the trend of convergence lines is used to overcome the problem of underestimation or even missed detection of strong convergence.Experimental results show that the combination of MARC automatic identification and correction algorithm makes the accurate rate of surface damaging winds prediction reach 94.87%, with an average lead-time of 20.6,min. And the rate of vacancy forecast is less than 6%.
引文
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[3]Lin Y J,Przybylinski R W.Application of WSR-88,D Doppler data to severe thunderstiom forecasting[C]//Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting.Taipei,China,1998:19-23.
[4]Nascimento E L,Droegemeier K K.Dynamic adjustment in a numerically simulated mesoscale convective system:Impact of the velocity field[J].Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences,2006,63(9):2246-2268.
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[6]Lemon L R,Parker S,North Platte N E.The Lahoma storm deep convergence zone:Its characteristics and role in storm dynamics and severity[C]//18th Conference on Severe Local Storms.San Francisco,CA,USA,1996:70-75.
[7]Bluestein H B,Gaddy S G.Airborne pseudo-dualDoppler analysis of a rear-inflow jet and deep convergence zone within a supercell[J].Monthly Weather Review,2001,129(9):2270-2289.
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[9]Przybylinski R W.The bow echo:Observations,numerical simulations,and severe weather detection methods[J].Weather and Forecasting,1995,10(2):203-218.
[10]俞小鼎,周小刚,王秀明.雷暴与强对流临近天气预报技术进展[J].气象学报,2012,70(3):311-337.Yu Xiaoding,Zhou Xiaogang,Wang Xiuming.The advances in the nowcasting techniques on thunderstorms and severe convection[J].Acta Meteorologica Sinica,2012,70(3):311-337(in Chinese).
[11]陈贵川,谌芸,乔林,等.重庆“5.6”强风雹天气过程成因分析[J].气象,2011,37(7):871-879.Chen Guichuan,Chen Yun,Qiao Lin,et al.The causation analysis of the 6 May 2010 severe windstorm weather process in Chongqing[J].Meteorological Monthly,2011,37(7):871-879(in Chinese).
[12]耿建军,翟亮,徐竹泉.2014年7月16日北京一次强对流天气过程分析[C]//第31届中国气象学会年会.北京:中国气象局气象探测中心,2014:12.Geng Jianjun,Zhai Liang,Xu Zhuquan.A severe convective weather process in Beijing in July 16,2014[C]//31st Annual Meeting of China Meteorological Society.Beijing:CMA Meteorological Observation Centre,2014:12(in Chinese).
[13]覃靖,潘海,刘蕾.柳州“4·09”致灾冰雹的超级单体风暴过程分析[J].气象,2017,43(6):745-755.Qin Jing,Pan Hai,Liu Lei.Analysis of supercell storm leading to disastrous hail in Liuzhou on 9 April 2016[J].Meteorological Monthly,2017,43(6):745-755(in Chinese).
[14]陆秋霖,黄荣,农孟松,等.2017年4月广西北部一次强对流天气中尺度分析[J].气象研究与应用,2017,38(2):18-21.Lu Qiulin,Huang Rong,Nong Mengsong,et al.Mesoscale analysis of a strong convective weather in northern Guangxi in April 2017[J].Journal of Meteorological Research and Application,2017,38(2):18-21(in Chinese).
[15]王萍,牛智勇.基于多普勒天气雷达数据的中层径向辐合识别及其与强对流天气的相关性研究[J].物理学报,2014,63(1):019201.Wang Ping,Niu Zhiyong.Automatic recognition of mid-altitude radial convergence and study on the relationship between the convergence and strong convective weather based on Doppler weather radar data[J].Acta Physica Sinica,2014,63(1):019201(in Chinese).
[16]俞小鼎,姚秀萍,熊廷南,等.多普勒天气雷达原理与业务应用[M].1版.北京:气象出版社,2006.Yu Xiaoding,Yao Xiuping,Xiong Tingnan,et al.Doppler Radar Principle and Business Applications[M].1st ed.Beijing:China Meteorological Press,2006(in Chinese).
[17]Smallcomb C.Hail spike impacts on Doppler radial velocity data during recent convective events in the continental United States[J].National Weather Association Electronic Journal of Operational Meteorology,2008,9(5):1-22.
[18]May P T,Andrew B.The statistical characteristics of convective cells in a monsoon regime(Darwin,Northern Australia)[J].Monthly Weather Review,2007,135(1):82-92.
[19]王彦,唐熠,赵金霞,等.天津地区雷暴大风天气雷达产品特征分析[J].气象,2009,35(5):91-96.Wang Yan,Tang Yi,Zhao Jinxia,et al.Statistical characters of Doppler weather radar data on thunderstorms[J].Meteorological Monthly,2009,35(5):91-96(in Chinese).
[20]Elmore K M,Albo E D,Goodrich R K,et al.NASA/NCAR airborne and ground-based wind shear studies[J].Bull AMS,1994,155:343-346.
[21]Smith T M,Elmore K L.The use of radial velocity derivatives to diagnose rotation and divergence[C]//11th Conference on Aviation,Range and Aerospace.Hyannis,MA:Amer Meteor Soc,2004:5-6.
[22]Smith T M,Elmore K L,Dulin S A.A damaging downburst prediction and detection algorithm for the WSR-88,D[J].Weather&Forecasting,2004,19(2):240.
[2]Schmocker G K,Przybylinski R W,Lin Y J.Forecasting the initial onset of damaging downburst winds associated with a mesoscale convective system(MCS)using the mid-altitude radial convergence(MARC)signature[C]//15th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting.Norfolk,VA,USA,1996:306-311.
[3]Lin Y J,Przybylinski R W.Application of WSR-88,D Doppler data to severe thunderstiom forecasting[C]//Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting.Taipei,China,1998:19-23.
[4]Nascimento E L,Droegemeier K K.Dynamic adjustment in a numerically simulated mesoscale convective system:Impact of the velocity field[J].Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences,2006,63(9):2246-2268.
[5]Lemon L R,Burgess D W.Supercell associated deep convergence zone revealed by a WSR-88,D[C]//26th International Conference on Radar Meteorology.Norman,OK,USA,1992:206-208.
[6]Lemon L R,Parker S,North Platte N E.The Lahoma storm deep convergence zone:Its characteristics and role in storm dynamics and severity[C]//18th Conference on Severe Local Storms.San Francisco,CA,USA,1996:70-75.
[7]Bluestein H B,Gaddy S G.Airborne pseudo-dualDoppler analysis of a rear-inflow jet and deep convergence zone within a supercell[J].Monthly Weather Review,2001,129(9):2270-2289.
[8]Eilts M D,Johnson J T,Mitchell E D,et al.Damaging downburst prediction and detection algorithm for the WSR-88,D[C]//18th Conference on Severe Local Storms.San Francisco,CA,USA,1996:541-545.
[9]Przybylinski R W.The bow echo:Observations,numerical simulations,and severe weather detection methods[J].Weather and Forecasting,1995,10(2):203-218.
[10]俞小鼎,周小刚,王秀明.雷暴与强对流临近天气预报技术进展[J].气象学报,2012,70(3):311-337.Yu Xiaoding,Zhou Xiaogang,Wang Xiuming.The advances in the nowcasting techniques on thunderstorms and severe convection[J].Acta Meteorologica Sinica,2012,70(3):311-337(in Chinese).
[11]陈贵川,谌芸,乔林,等.重庆“5.6”强风雹天气过程成因分析[J].气象,2011,37(7):871-879.Chen Guichuan,Chen Yun,Qiao Lin,et al.The causation analysis of the 6 May 2010 severe windstorm weather process in Chongqing[J].Meteorological Monthly,2011,37(7):871-879(in Chinese).
[12]耿建军,翟亮,徐竹泉.2014年7月16日北京一次强对流天气过程分析[C]//第31届中国气象学会年会.北京:中国气象局气象探测中心,2014:12.Geng Jianjun,Zhai Liang,Xu Zhuquan.A severe convective weather process in Beijing in July 16,2014[C]//31st Annual Meeting of China Meteorological Society.Beijing:CMA Meteorological Observation Centre,2014:12(in Chinese).
[13]覃靖,潘海,刘蕾.柳州“4·09”致灾冰雹的超级单体风暴过程分析[J].气象,2017,43(6):745-755.Qin Jing,Pan Hai,Liu Lei.Analysis of supercell storm leading to disastrous hail in Liuzhou on 9 April 2016[J].Meteorological Monthly,2017,43(6):745-755(in Chinese).
[14]陆秋霖,黄荣,农孟松,等.2017年4月广西北部一次强对流天气中尺度分析[J].气象研究与应用,2017,38(2):18-21.Lu Qiulin,Huang Rong,Nong Mengsong,et al.Mesoscale analysis of a strong convective weather in northern Guangxi in April 2017[J].Journal of Meteorological Research and Application,2017,38(2):18-21(in Chinese).
[15]王萍,牛智勇.基于多普勒天气雷达数据的中层径向辐合识别及其与强对流天气的相关性研究[J].物理学报,2014,63(1):019201.Wang Ping,Niu Zhiyong.Automatic recognition of mid-altitude radial convergence and study on the relationship between the convergence and strong convective weather based on Doppler weather radar data[J].Acta Physica Sinica,2014,63(1):019201(in Chinese).
[16]俞小鼎,姚秀萍,熊廷南,等.多普勒天气雷达原理与业务应用[M].1版.北京:气象出版社,2006.Yu Xiaoding,Yao Xiuping,Xiong Tingnan,et al.Doppler Radar Principle and Business Applications[M].1st ed.Beijing:China Meteorological Press,2006(in Chinese).
[17]Smallcomb C.Hail spike impacts on Doppler radial velocity data during recent convective events in the continental United States[J].National Weather Association Electronic Journal of Operational Meteorology,2008,9(5):1-22.
[18]May P T,Andrew B.The statistical characteristics of convective cells in a monsoon regime(Darwin,Northern Australia)[J].Monthly Weather Review,2007,135(1):82-92.
[19]王彦,唐熠,赵金霞,等.天津地区雷暴大风天气雷达产品特征分析[J].气象,2009,35(5):91-96.Wang Yan,Tang Yi,Zhao Jinxia,et al.Statistical characters of Doppler weather radar data on thunderstorms[J].Meteorological Monthly,2009,35(5):91-96(in Chinese).
[20]Elmore K M,Albo E D,Goodrich R K,et al.NASA/NCAR airborne and ground-based wind shear studies[J].Bull AMS,1994,155:343-346.
[21]Smith T M,Elmore K L.The use of radial velocity derivatives to diagnose rotation and divergence[C]//11th Conference on Aviation,Range and Aerospace.Hyannis,MA:Amer Meteor Soc,2004:5-6.
[22]Smith T M,Elmore K L,Dulin S A.A damaging downburst prediction and detection algorithm for the WSR-88,D[J].Weather&Forecasting,2004,19(2):240.