经济快速发展背景下中国民用汽车拥有量变化的时空特征
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摘要
基于统计数据,采用Theil指数、线性倾向率、Mann-Kendall(M-K)检验、面板数据模型,从中国、八大经济区域、各省3个尺度分析中国民用汽车拥有量的时空变化特征及其与地区生产总值、居民消费水平、公路里程的关系。结果表明:①中国民用汽车拥有量的增长分两个阶段:1996～2005年为缓慢增长期,2005～2015年为快速增长期;②2000～2015年中国民用汽车拥有量地区分布差异显著下降,2000～2005年区域内总差异是总差异的主要成分,北部沿海地区区域内差异是区域内总差异的主要原因,2006～2015年区域间差异是总差异的主要成分;③在不同的时间阶段及空间尺度各因素对民用汽车拥有量发展的作用方向和作用强度呈现一定的差异性。
With the rapid development of economy, the number of China's motor vehicle rises sharply. The rapid development of the auto industry promotes the social civilization, and drives the sustained economic growth.Cars improve the efficiency of people's traveling, at the same time, they bring some problems such as traffic congestion, environmental pollution, energy consumption, which directly threat to human health and the sustainable development of social economy. To explore the temporal variation characteristics of civilian cars under the background of China's rapid economic growth ownership is the basis to solve the problem such as traffic congestion, traffic accidents, car exhaust, it is also the premise of auto industry development and applicable policy. This article reveal the temporal variation characteristics of Chinese civil car ownership and differences,explore the relationship between the civil car ownership change and economic development. With the the number of civil car ownership, gross regional product, household consumption level, highway mileage and provinces population data in 31 provincial level administrative region in mainland China from 1996 to 2015, the empirical research is conducted by adopting Theil index, the linear trend estimation indicates, Mann-Kendall test and panel data mode, respectively, based on the national, the eight economic regions, and 31 provinces three spatial dimensions. The preliminary results shows that: 1) The scope of research and the continuous growth of China's car ownership can be divided into two stages: the first stage, 1996-2005, for the slow growth; The second stage, from 2005 to 2015, is for rapid growth; 2) From 2000 to 2015, China's civil car ownership regional differences declined obviously in 2000-2005, the differences of China's civil car ownership in 31 provinces regions are determined by differences of within-region, and differences in Northern coastal areas are the main cause of regional differences; The differences of between-region were greater than the differences of within-region in 2006-2015; 3) In the research time range, the gross regional product, residents' consumption level, and highway mileage can improve the number of civil car ownership, and there are significant differences in the influence of three factors on the civil car ownership.
With the rapid development of economy, the number of China's motor vehicle rises sharply. The rapid development of the auto industry promotes the social civilization, and drives the sustained economic growth.Cars improve the efficiency of people's traveling, at the same time, they bring some problems such as traffic congestion, environmental pollution, energy consumption, which directly threat to human health and the sustainable development of social economy. To explore the temporal variation characteristics of civilian cars under the background of China's rapid economic growth ownership is the basis to solve the problem such as traffic congestion, traffic accidents, car exhaust, it is also the premise of auto industry development and applicable policy. This article reveal the temporal variation characteristics of Chinese civil car ownership and differences,explore the relationship between the civil car ownership change and economic development. With the the number of civil car ownership, gross regional product, household consumption level, highway mileage and provinces population data in 31 provincial level administrative region in mainland China from 1996 to 2015, the empirical research is conducted by adopting Theil index, the linear trend estimation indicates, Mann-Kendall test and panel data mode, respectively, based on the national, the eight economic regions, and 31 provinces three spatial dimensions. The preliminary results shows that: 1) The scope of research and the continuous growth of China's car ownership can be divided into two stages: the first stage, 1996-2005, for the slow growth; The second stage, from 2005 to 2015, is for rapid growth; 2) From 2000 to 2015, China's civil car ownership regional differences declined obviously in 2000-2005, the differences of China's civil car ownership in 31 provinces regions are determined by differences of within-region, and differences in Northern coastal areas are the main cause of regional differences; The differences of between-region were greater than the differences of within-region in 2006-2015; 3) In the research time range, the gross regional product, residents' consumption level, and highway mileage can improve the number of civil car ownership, and there are significant differences in the influence of three factors on the civil car ownership.
引文
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[19]Yang Z, Jia P, Liu W et al. Car ownership and urban development in Chinese cities:A panel data analysis[J]. Journal of Transport Geography, 2017, 58:127-134.
[20]蒋艳梅,赵文平.Logistic模型在我国私人汽车保有量预测中的应用研究[J].工业技术经济,2010,29(11):99-104.[Jiang Yanmei, Zhao Wenping. Application research of logistic model in private car ownership prediction in China. Journal of Industrial Technological Economics, 2010,29(11):99-104.]
[21]王景才,郭佳香,徐蛟,等.近55年淮河上中游流域气候要素多时间尺度演变特征及关联性分析[J].地理科学, 2017, 37(4):611-619.[Wang Jingcai, Guo Jiaxiang, Xu Jiao et al. Multitime scales change characteristics and relationship of meteorological variables in the upper and middle regions of the Huaihe River basin in recent 55 years. Scientia Geographica Sinica,2017, 37(4):611-619.]
[22]何云玲,鲁枝海.近60年昆明市气候变化特征分析[J].地理科学, 2012, 32(9):1119-1124.[He Yunling, Lu Zhihai. Climate change trends and characteristics of Kunming in recent 60years. Scientia Geographica Sinica, 2012, 32(9):1119-1124.]
[23]高翯,王士君,谭亮.东北振兴以来吉林省区域经济差异的时空演变研究[J].地理科学, 2017, 37(11):1712-1719.[Gao He,Wang Shijun, Tan Liang. Regional economic disparities and spatio-temporal evolution in Jilin Province since 2003. Scientia Geographica Sinica, 2017, 37(11):1712-1719.]
[24]姜会明,孙雨,王健,等.中国农民收入区域差异及影响因素分析[J].地理科学, 2017, 37(10):1546-1551.[Jiang Huiming,Sun Yu, Wang Jian et al. Regional differences of farmers’income in China and analysis of influencing factors. Scientia Geographica Sinica, 2017, 37(10):1546-1551.]
[25]陈妍,梅林.东北地区资源型城市经济转型发展波动特征与影响因素——基于面板数据模型的分析[J].地理科学, 2017,37(7):1080-1086.[Chen Yan, Mei Lin. Cyclical characteristics and influential factors of resource-based cities’economy in Northeast China—Based on panel data model. Scientia Geographica Sinica, 2017, 37(7):1080-1086.]
[2]佚名.二〇一六年中国机动车环境管理年报发布[J].中国环境科学,2016,36(6):1793.[Anon. The 2016 China Vehicle Environmental Management Annual Report has been released. China Environmental Science, 2016,36(6):1793]
[3]Wu T, Zhao H, Ou X. Vehicle ownership analysis based on GDP per capita in China:1963-2050[J]. Sustainability, 2014, 6(8):4877-4899.
[4]孙斌栋,尹春.人口密度对居民通勤时耗的影响及条件效应——来自上海证据[J].地理科学, 2018, 38(1):41-48.[Sun Bindong, Yin Chun. Impacts and conditional effects of population density on commuting duration:Evidence from Shanghai.Scientia Geographica Sinica, 2018, 38(1):41-48.]
[5]Alimi A M, Jamoussi A, Masmoudi I et al. Multi agent parking lots modelling for anomalies detection while parking[J]. IET Computer Vision, 2016, 10(5):407-414.
[6]Bharadwaj S, Ballare S, Rohit et al. Impact of congestion on greenhouse gas emissions for road transport in Mumbai metropolitan region[J]. Transportation Research Procedia, 2017, 25:3542-3555.
[7]王旖旎.中国汽车需求预测:基于Gompertz模型的分析[J].财经问题研究,2005(11):43-50.[Wang Yini. Car ownership forecast in China—An analysis based on gompertz equation. Research on Financial&Economic Issues, 2005(11):43-50.]
[8]孙璐,郁烨,顾文钧.基于PCA和HMM的汽车保有量预测方法[J].交通运输工程学报,2013,13(2):92-98.[Sun Lu, Yu Ye,Gu Wenjun. Car ownership prediction method based on principal component analysis and hidden Markov model. Journal of Traffic&Transportation Engineering, 2013,13(2):92-98.]
[9]鲍叶静.我国城镇居民汽车拥有率组合预测——基于收入等级[J].技术经济,2011,30(3):87-90.[Bao Yejing. Integrated forecast on car ownership rate of urban dwellers in China:Based on different income levels. Technology Economics, 2011,30(3):87-90.]
[10]He S Y, Th?gersen J. The impact of attitudes and perceptions on travel mode choice and car ownership in a Chinese megacity:The case of Guangzhou[J]. Research in Transportation Economics, 2017, 62:57-67.
[11]蒋艳梅,赵文平.Logistic模型在我国私人汽车保有量预测中的应用研究[J].工业技术经济,2010,29(11):99-104.[Jiang Yanmei, Zhao Wenping. Application research of logistic model in private car ownership prediction in China. Journal of Industrial Technological Economics, 2010,29(11):99-104.]
[12]Li J, Walker J L, Inivasan S et al. Modeling private car ownership in China[J]. Transportation Research Record Journal of the Transportation Research Board, 2010, 2193(1):76-84.
[13]Páez A, Scott D M, Potoglou D et al. Elderly mobility:Demographic and spatial analysis of trip making in the hamilton CMA[J]. Urban Studies, 2007, 44(1):123-146.
[14]Zhang Z, Jin W, Jiang H et al. Modeling heterogeneous vehicle ownership in China:A case study based on the Chinese national survey[J]. Transport Policy, 2017, 54:11-20.
[15]Le Vine S, Wu C, Polak J. A nationwide study of factors associated with household car ownership in China[J]. IATSS Research, 2018,42(3):128-137.
[16]Shen Q, Chen P, Pan H. Factors affecting car ownership and mode choice in rail transit-supported suburbs of a large Chinese city[J]. Transportation Research Part A Policy&Practice, 2016,94:31-44.
[17]黄晓燕,曹小曙,李涛.中国城市私人汽车发展的时空特征及影响因素[J].地理学报, 2012, 67(6):745-757.[Huang Xiaoyan,Cao Xiaoshu, Li Tao. The spatio-temporal variations of urban private car ownership in China and their influencing factors. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2012, 67(6):745-757.]
[18]Wu N, Zhao S, Zhang Q. A study on the determinants of private car ownership in China:Findings from the panel data[J]. Transportation Research Part A, 2016, 85:186-195.
[19]Yang Z, Jia P, Liu W et al. Car ownership and urban development in Chinese cities:A panel data analysis[J]. Journal of Transport Geography, 2017, 58:127-134.
[20]蒋艳梅,赵文平.Logistic模型在我国私人汽车保有量预测中的应用研究[J].工业技术经济,2010,29(11):99-104.[Jiang Yanmei, Zhao Wenping. Application research of logistic model in private car ownership prediction in China. Journal of Industrial Technological Economics, 2010,29(11):99-104.]
[21]王景才,郭佳香,徐蛟,等.近55年淮河上中游流域气候要素多时间尺度演变特征及关联性分析[J].地理科学, 2017, 37(4):611-619.[Wang Jingcai, Guo Jiaxiang, Xu Jiao et al. Multitime scales change characteristics and relationship of meteorological variables in the upper and middle regions of the Huaihe River basin in recent 55 years. Scientia Geographica Sinica,2017, 37(4):611-619.]
[22]何云玲,鲁枝海.近60年昆明市气候变化特征分析[J].地理科学, 2012, 32(9):1119-1124.[He Yunling, Lu Zhihai. Climate change trends and characteristics of Kunming in recent 60years. Scientia Geographica Sinica, 2012, 32(9):1119-1124.]
[23]高翯,王士君,谭亮.东北振兴以来吉林省区域经济差异的时空演变研究[J].地理科学, 2017, 37(11):1712-1719.[Gao He,Wang Shijun, Tan Liang. Regional economic disparities and spatio-temporal evolution in Jilin Province since 2003. Scientia Geographica Sinica, 2017, 37(11):1712-1719.]
[24]姜会明,孙雨,王健,等.中国农民收入区域差异及影响因素分析[J].地理科学, 2017, 37(10):1546-1551.[Jiang Huiming,Sun Yu, Wang Jian et al. Regional differences of farmers’income in China and analysis of influencing factors. Scientia Geographica Sinica, 2017, 37(10):1546-1551.]
[25]陈妍,梅林.东北地区资源型城市经济转型发展波动特征与影响因素——基于面板数据模型的分析[J].地理科学, 2017,37(7):1080-1086.[Chen Yan, Mei Lin. Cyclical characteristics and influential factors of resource-based cities’economy in Northeast China—Based on panel data model. Scientia Geographica Sinica, 2017, 37(7):1080-1086.]
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