雨量站网布设对水文模型不确定性影响的比较
|
摘要
雨量站网布设会影响径流模拟精度,研究不同雨量站密度和空间分布的径流响应规律对提高径流模拟精度和减小不确定性具有重要意义。应用新安江模型和HBV(Hydrologiska Fyrans Vattenbalans)模型,以湘江流域为研究对象,采用贝叶斯方法比较分析在不同雨量站密度及空间分布下径流模拟的不确定性。结果表明:增加雨量站密度可以降低面雨量的估计误差,使模型在不同的雨量站空间分布下具有较高的模拟精度;通过优化雨量站空间分布,可以减小雨量站网布设导致的模型不确定性,从而提高径流模拟精度;在相同的降雨输入和参数采样方法下,新安江模型和HBV模型对降雨输入导致的不确定性响应规律具有相似性,但是本研究结果显示在湘江流域新安江模型的模拟精度更高,而HBV模型的不确定性更大。
The design of the rain gauge network affects the accuracy of model simulation. Therefore,studying the effect of rain gauge density and its distribution on improving runoff simulation accuracy and reducing the modeling uncertainty is of vital importance. In this paper,the Xin'anjiang model and the HBV model were applied to simulate the runoff of the Xiangjiang River basin,and the Bayesian method was used to analyze the runoff simulation uncertainty resulted from resampling of rain gauge networks with different gauge densities and spatial distributions. The results reveal that increasing the rain gauge density can reduce the estimation error of areal rainfall,which in turn,improves model simulation accuracy; optimizing the rain gauge number and location can reduce the uncertainty of areal mean rainfall,thereby improving the runoff simulation accuracy; under the same rainfall input and parameter sampling methods,the simulation uncertainty of the Xin'anjiang model and the HBV model has similar characteristics,but the overall simulation accuracy of the Xin'anjiang model is higher,and the uncertainty of the HBV model is bigger.
The design of the rain gauge network affects the accuracy of model simulation. Therefore,studying the effect of rain gauge density and its distribution on improving runoff simulation accuracy and reducing the modeling uncertainty is of vital importance. In this paper,the Xin'anjiang model and the HBV model were applied to simulate the runoff of the Xiangjiang River basin,and the Bayesian method was used to analyze the runoff simulation uncertainty resulted from resampling of rain gauge networks with different gauge densities and spatial distributions. The results reveal that increasing the rain gauge density can reduce the estimation error of areal rainfall,which in turn,improves model simulation accuracy; optimizing the rain gauge number and location can reduce the uncertainty of areal mean rainfall,thereby improving the runoff simulation accuracy; under the same rainfall input and parameter sampling methods,the simulation uncertainty of the Xin'anjiang model and the HBV model has similar characteristics,but the overall simulation accuracy of the Xin'anjiang model is higher,and the uncertainty of the HBV model is bigger.
引文
[1]徐静,任立良,刘晓帆,等.基于模糊集理论的降雨不确定性传播影响研究[J].水科学进展,2009,20(3):422-427.(XU J,REN L L,LIU X F,et al.Research on influence of rainfall uncertainty communication based on fuzzy set theory[J].Advances in Water Science,2009,20(3):422-427.(in Chinese))
[2]SUN S,KHU S T,DJORDJEVIC S.Sampling rainfall events:a novel approach to generate large correlated samples[J].Hydrology Research,2013,44:351-361.
[3]BARDOSSY A,DAS T.Influence of rainfall observation network on model calibration and application[J].Hydrology&Earth System Sciences,2006,12(1):77-89.
[4]XU H L,XU C Y,CHEN H,et al.Assessing the influence of rain gauge density and distribution on hydrological model performance in a humid region of China[J].Journal of Hydrology,2013,505:1-12.
[5]XU H L,XU C Y,SAELTHUN N R,et al.Entropy theory based multi-criteria resampling of rain gauge networks for hydrological modelling:a case study of humid area in southern China[J].Journal of Hydrology,2015,525:138-151.
[6]郭卫国,陈喜,张润润.基于降雨分布不均匀性的空间插值方法适用性研究[J].水力发电,2016,42(6):14-17.(GUOW G,CHEN X,ZHANG R R.Study on the applicability of spatial interpolation methods based on the heterogeneity of rainfall distribution[J].Water Power,2016,42(6):14-17.(in Chinese))
[7]BEVEN K,BINLEY A.The future of distributed models:model calibration and uncertainty prediction[J].Hydrological Processes,1992,6(3):279-298.
[8]梁忠民,戴荣,李彬权.基于贝叶斯理论的水文不确定性分析研究进展[J].水科学进展,2010,21(2):274-281.(LI-ANG Z M,DAI R,LI B Q.A review of hydrological uncertainty analysis based on Bayesian theory[J].Advances in Water Science,2009,20(1):45-51.(in Chinese))
[9]赵冬泉,王浩正,陈吉宁,等.城市暴雨径流模拟的参数不确定性研究[J].水科学进展,2009,20(1):45-51.(ZHAO DQ,WANG H Z,CHEN J N,et al.Parameters uncertainty analysis of urban rainfall-runoff simulation[J].Advances in Water Science,2009,20(1):45-51.(in Chinese))
[10]王思媛,胡高辉,孙利敏,等.水文模型模拟水文极值的不确定性分析[J].人民黄河,2018,40(2):1-9.(WANG SY,HU G H,SUN L M,et al.Uncertainty analyses of hydrological model to hydrological extremum[J].Yellow River,2018,40(2):1-9.(in Chinese))
[11]JIN X L,XU C Y,QI Z,et al.Parameter and modeling uncertainty simulated by GLUE and a formal Bayesian method for a conceptual hydrological model.[J].Journal of Hydrology,2010,383(3):147-155.
[12]LI L,XU C Y.The comparison of sensitivity analysis of hydrological uncertainty estimates by GLUE and Bayesian method under the impact of precipitation errors[J].Stochastic Environmental Research&Risk Assessment,2014,28(3):491-504.
[13]LIU Y R,LI Y P,HUANG G H,et al.A Bayesian-based multilevel factorial analysis method for analyzing parameter uncertainty of hydrological model[J].Journal of Hydrology,2017,553:750-762.
[14]ZENG Q,CHEN H,XU C Y,et al.The effect of rain gauge density and distribution on runoff simulation using a lumped hydrological modelling approach[J].Journal of Hydrology,2018,563:106-122.
[15]张剑明,黎祖贤,章新平.近50年湘江流域干湿气候变化若干特点[J].灾害学,2009,24(4):95-101.(ZHANG J M,LI Z X,ZHANG X P.The characteristics of dry and wet climate changes in the Xiangjiang River basin in recent 50 years[J].Journal of Disasters,2009,24(4):95-101.(in Chinese))
[16]赵人俊.流域水文模拟[M].北京:水利电力出版社,1984:53-55.(ZHAO R J.Watershed hydrological simulation[M].Beijing:China Water&Power Press,1984:53-55.(in Chinese))
[17]张小丽,彭勇,徐炜,等.基于Sobol方法的新安江模型参数敏感性分析[J].南水北调与水利科技,2014(2):20-33.(ZHANG X L,PENG Y,XU W,et al.Sensitivity analysis of Xin'anjiang model parameters using Sobol methods[J].South-toNorth Water Transefers and Water Science&Technology,2014(2):20-33.(in Chinese))
[18]宋晓猛,孔凡哲,占车生,等.基于统计理论方法的水文模型参数敏感性分析[J].水科学进展,2012,23(5):642-649.(SONG X M,KONG F Z,ZHAN C S,et al.Sensitivity analysis of hydrological model parameters using a statistical theory approach[J].Advances in Water Science,2012,23(5):642-649.(in Chinese))
[19]赵彦增,张建新,章树安,等.HBV模型在淮河官寨流域的应用研究[J].水文,2007,27(2):57-59.(ZHAO Y Z,ZHANG J X,ZHANG S A,et al.Application of HBV model in Huaihe Guanzhai Valley[J].Journal of China Hydrology,2007,27(2):57-59.(in Chinese))
[20]王有恒,谭丹,景元书.HBV水文预报模型在白龙江流域的应用研究[J].水土保持通报,2015,35(3):218-221.(WANG Y H,TAN D,JING Y S.Application of HBV hydrology model in Bailong River basin[J].Bulletin of Soil and Water Conservation,2015,35(3):218-221.(in Chinese))
[21]欧阳帅.祁连山排露沟水文动态HBV模型模拟参数检验及敏感性分析[J].北京林业大学,2014,54(2):163-174.(OUYANG S.Testing of HBV model parametres and sensitivity analysis in simulating hydrological dynamics of Pailugou in Qilian Mountians[J].Beijng Forestry University,2014,54(2):163-174.(in Chinese))
[22]韦来生.贝叶斯统计[M].北京:高等教育出版社,2016:77-79.(WEI L S.Bayesian statistics[M].Beijing:Higher Education Press,2016:77-79.(in Chinese))
[23]BAYES T,PRICE R,CANTON J.An essay towards solving a problem in the doctrine of chances[M].London:Printer to the Royal Society,1763:149-153.
[24]NOURALI M,GHAHRAMAN B,POURREZABILONDI M,et al.Effect of formal and informal likelihood functions on uncertainty assessment in a single event rainfall-runoff model[J].Journal of Hydrology,2016,540:549-564.
[25]ENGELAND K,XU C Y,GOTTSCHALK L.Assessing uncertainties in a conceptual water balance model using Bayesian methodology[J].Hydrological Sciences Journal,2009,50(1):45-63.
[26]SCHOUPS G,VRUGT J A.A formal likelihood function for parameter and predictive inference of hydrologic models with correlated,heteroscedastic,and non-Gaussian errors[J].Water Resources Research,2010,46(10):79-93.
[27]BOX G E P,COX D R.An analysis of transformations[J].Journal of the Royal Statistical Society:Methodological,1964,26(2):211-252.
[28]茆诗松,汤银才.贝叶斯统计[M].北京:中国统计出版社,2012:101-105.(MAO S S,TANG Y C.Bayesian statistics[M].Beijing:China Statistics Press,2012:101-105.(in Chinese))
[29]HAARIO H,SAKSMAN E,TAMMINEN J.Componentwise adaptation for high dimensional MCMC[J].Computational Statistics,2005,20(2):265-273.
[30]GELMAN A,RUBIN D B.Inference from iterative simulation using multiple sequences[J].Statistical Science,1992,7(4):457-472.
[31]XIONG L H,WAN M,WEI X J,et al.Indices for assessing the prediction bounds of hydrological models and application by generalised likelihood uncertainty estimation[J].International Association of Scientific Hydrology Bulletin,2009,54(5):852-871.
[2]SUN S,KHU S T,DJORDJEVIC S.Sampling rainfall events:a novel approach to generate large correlated samples[J].Hydrology Research,2013,44:351-361.
[3]BARDOSSY A,DAS T.Influence of rainfall observation network on model calibration and application[J].Hydrology&Earth System Sciences,2006,12(1):77-89.
[4]XU H L,XU C Y,CHEN H,et al.Assessing the influence of rain gauge density and distribution on hydrological model performance in a humid region of China[J].Journal of Hydrology,2013,505:1-12.
[5]XU H L,XU C Y,SAELTHUN N R,et al.Entropy theory based multi-criteria resampling of rain gauge networks for hydrological modelling:a case study of humid area in southern China[J].Journal of Hydrology,2015,525:138-151.
[6]郭卫国,陈喜,张润润.基于降雨分布不均匀性的空间插值方法适用性研究[J].水力发电,2016,42(6):14-17.(GUOW G,CHEN X,ZHANG R R.Study on the applicability of spatial interpolation methods based on the heterogeneity of rainfall distribution[J].Water Power,2016,42(6):14-17.(in Chinese))
[7]BEVEN K,BINLEY A.The future of distributed models:model calibration and uncertainty prediction[J].Hydrological Processes,1992,6(3):279-298.
[8]梁忠民,戴荣,李彬权.基于贝叶斯理论的水文不确定性分析研究进展[J].水科学进展,2010,21(2):274-281.(LI-ANG Z M,DAI R,LI B Q.A review of hydrological uncertainty analysis based on Bayesian theory[J].Advances in Water Science,2009,20(1):45-51.(in Chinese))
[9]赵冬泉,王浩正,陈吉宁,等.城市暴雨径流模拟的参数不确定性研究[J].水科学进展,2009,20(1):45-51.(ZHAO DQ,WANG H Z,CHEN J N,et al.Parameters uncertainty analysis of urban rainfall-runoff simulation[J].Advances in Water Science,2009,20(1):45-51.(in Chinese))
[10]王思媛,胡高辉,孙利敏,等.水文模型模拟水文极值的不确定性分析[J].人民黄河,2018,40(2):1-9.(WANG SY,HU G H,SUN L M,et al.Uncertainty analyses of hydrological model to hydrological extremum[J].Yellow River,2018,40(2):1-9.(in Chinese))
[11]JIN X L,XU C Y,QI Z,et al.Parameter and modeling uncertainty simulated by GLUE and a formal Bayesian method for a conceptual hydrological model.[J].Journal of Hydrology,2010,383(3):147-155.
[12]LI L,XU C Y.The comparison of sensitivity analysis of hydrological uncertainty estimates by GLUE and Bayesian method under the impact of precipitation errors[J].Stochastic Environmental Research&Risk Assessment,2014,28(3):491-504.
[13]LIU Y R,LI Y P,HUANG G H,et al.A Bayesian-based multilevel factorial analysis method for analyzing parameter uncertainty of hydrological model[J].Journal of Hydrology,2017,553:750-762.
[14]ZENG Q,CHEN H,XU C Y,et al.The effect of rain gauge density and distribution on runoff simulation using a lumped hydrological modelling approach[J].Journal of Hydrology,2018,563:106-122.
[15]张剑明,黎祖贤,章新平.近50年湘江流域干湿气候变化若干特点[J].灾害学,2009,24(4):95-101.(ZHANG J M,LI Z X,ZHANG X P.The characteristics of dry and wet climate changes in the Xiangjiang River basin in recent 50 years[J].Journal of Disasters,2009,24(4):95-101.(in Chinese))
[16]赵人俊.流域水文模拟[M].北京:水利电力出版社,1984:53-55.(ZHAO R J.Watershed hydrological simulation[M].Beijing:China Water&Power Press,1984:53-55.(in Chinese))
[17]张小丽,彭勇,徐炜,等.基于Sobol方法的新安江模型参数敏感性分析[J].南水北调与水利科技,2014(2):20-33.(ZHANG X L,PENG Y,XU W,et al.Sensitivity analysis of Xin'anjiang model parameters using Sobol methods[J].South-toNorth Water Transefers and Water Science&Technology,2014(2):20-33.(in Chinese))
[18]宋晓猛,孔凡哲,占车生,等.基于统计理论方法的水文模型参数敏感性分析[J].水科学进展,2012,23(5):642-649.(SONG X M,KONG F Z,ZHAN C S,et al.Sensitivity analysis of hydrological model parameters using a statistical theory approach[J].Advances in Water Science,2012,23(5):642-649.(in Chinese))
[19]赵彦增,张建新,章树安,等.HBV模型在淮河官寨流域的应用研究[J].水文,2007,27(2):57-59.(ZHAO Y Z,ZHANG J X,ZHANG S A,et al.Application of HBV model in Huaihe Guanzhai Valley[J].Journal of China Hydrology,2007,27(2):57-59.(in Chinese))
[20]王有恒,谭丹,景元书.HBV水文预报模型在白龙江流域的应用研究[J].水土保持通报,2015,35(3):218-221.(WANG Y H,TAN D,JING Y S.Application of HBV hydrology model in Bailong River basin[J].Bulletin of Soil and Water Conservation,2015,35(3):218-221.(in Chinese))
[21]欧阳帅.祁连山排露沟水文动态HBV模型模拟参数检验及敏感性分析[J].北京林业大学,2014,54(2):163-174.(OUYANG S.Testing of HBV model parametres and sensitivity analysis in simulating hydrological dynamics of Pailugou in Qilian Mountians[J].Beijng Forestry University,2014,54(2):163-174.(in Chinese))
[22]韦来生.贝叶斯统计[M].北京:高等教育出版社,2016:77-79.(WEI L S.Bayesian statistics[M].Beijing:Higher Education Press,2016:77-79.(in Chinese))
[23]BAYES T,PRICE R,CANTON J.An essay towards solving a problem in the doctrine of chances[M].London:Printer to the Royal Society,1763:149-153.
[24]NOURALI M,GHAHRAMAN B,POURREZABILONDI M,et al.Effect of formal and informal likelihood functions on uncertainty assessment in a single event rainfall-runoff model[J].Journal of Hydrology,2016,540:549-564.
[25]ENGELAND K,XU C Y,GOTTSCHALK L.Assessing uncertainties in a conceptual water balance model using Bayesian methodology[J].Hydrological Sciences Journal,2009,50(1):45-63.
[26]SCHOUPS G,VRUGT J A.A formal likelihood function for parameter and predictive inference of hydrologic models with correlated,heteroscedastic,and non-Gaussian errors[J].Water Resources Research,2010,46(10):79-93.
[27]BOX G E P,COX D R.An analysis of transformations[J].Journal of the Royal Statistical Society:Methodological,1964,26(2):211-252.
[28]茆诗松,汤银才.贝叶斯统计[M].北京:中国统计出版社,2012:101-105.(MAO S S,TANG Y C.Bayesian statistics[M].Beijing:China Statistics Press,2012:101-105.(in Chinese))
[29]HAARIO H,SAKSMAN E,TAMMINEN J.Componentwise adaptation for high dimensional MCMC[J].Computational Statistics,2005,20(2):265-273.
[30]GELMAN A,RUBIN D B.Inference from iterative simulation using multiple sequences[J].Statistical Science,1992,7(4):457-472.
[31]XIONG L H,WAN M,WEI X J,et al.Indices for assessing the prediction bounds of hydrological models and application by generalised likelihood uncertainty estimation[J].International Association of Scientific Hydrology Bulletin,2009,54(5):852-871.