基于协同联动的高温热浪应急预案研究
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摘要
在全球变暖的大背景下,不断增强的城市热岛效应与城镇化过程中内在的脆弱性等因素叠加,使多数地区都面临着极大的高温热浪的潜在威胁,因此编制高温热浪应急预案并开展研究已成为提高风险管理和应急能力的必要路径。然而,目前不仅缺乏成体系的预案及其相关的研究,而且现有气象灾害应急预案研究较为零星且往往忽略了部门间的联动建设。鉴于此,在构建高温热浪预案体系的基础上,引入协同联动机制,对其运行的组织架构和流程进行探讨,着重说明在应急过程中不同阶段的任务分解和各部门在不同行动环节的协同联动。最后,基于灾害大数据平台构建多场景适配的预案体系并对其实施效果进行监控和反馈,实现预案的全过程优化,以保证预案的可操作性,增强应急工作的成效性。
With global warming, the continuous increasing of urban heat island effect and the inherent vulnerability of urbanization make most regions face the potential threat of high temperature heat waves. Therefore, the compilation and research of contingency plan for high temperature heat waves has become the essential route of the improvement of risk management and emergency response capability. Nevertheless, there is neither systematic plan nor related research for high temperature heat wave nowadays. In addition, The construction of collaborative linkage among different agency was often neglected in the sporadic research of contingency plan for meteorological disasters. In response to above-mentioned, on the basis of the establishment of the plan system for high temperature heat waves, this paper introduces the collaborative linkage mechanism into the emergency management for high temperature heat waves, discusses the organization structure and operation process of the emergency settlement, then to highlight the task disassembling in the different contingency procedure and the collaborative linkage among different agency in each project. Eventually, according to the the big data platform, this paper proposed to establish a multi-scene adaptive system of contingency plan, then to supervise and feedback the implementation effect, achieve the optimizing control in all process, thus to ensure the operability of the contingency plan and enhance the effectiveness of contingency management.
With global warming, the continuous increasing of urban heat island effect and the inherent vulnerability of urbanization make most regions face the potential threat of high temperature heat waves. Therefore, the compilation and research of contingency plan for high temperature heat waves has become the essential route of the improvement of risk management and emergency response capability. Nevertheless, there is neither systematic plan nor related research for high temperature heat wave nowadays. In addition, The construction of collaborative linkage among different agency was often neglected in the sporadic research of contingency plan for meteorological disasters. In response to above-mentioned, on the basis of the establishment of the plan system for high temperature heat waves, this paper introduces the collaborative linkage mechanism into the emergency management for high temperature heat waves, discusses the organization structure and operation process of the emergency settlement, then to highlight the task disassembling in the different contingency procedure and the collaborative linkage among different agency in each project. Eventually, according to the the big data platform, this paper proposed to establish a multi-scene adaptive system of contingency plan, then to supervise and feedback the implementation effect, achieve the optimizing control in all process, thus to ensure the operability of the contingency plan and enhance the effectiveness of contingency management.
引文
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[23] 刘玲,周显信,罗美娟. 城市气象灾害专项应急预案编制实践与思考——以南昌为例[J]. 中国应急救援,2013(3):25-28.
[24] 程启竞. 关于编制抗旱预案有关问题的探析[J]. 中国农村水利水电,2002(1):11-12.
[25] 姜仁贵,王小杰,解建仓,等. 城市内涝应急预案管理研究与应用[J] . 灾害学,2018,33(2):146-150.
[26] 张祯,王建军,陈虹. 从大震救援分析国家地震应急预案存在的问题[J] . 灾害学,2011,26(4):139-142.
[27] 谢志清,杜银,曾燕等. 上海城市集群化发展显著增强局地高温热浪事件[J] . 气象学报,2015,73(6): 1104-1113.
[28] 祁新华,程煜,李达谋. 西方高温热浪研究述评[J] . 生态学报,2016,36(10):2773-2778.
[29] Poumadère M,Mays C,Mer S L,et al. The 2003 heat wave in France: dangerous climate change here and now[J]. Risk Analysis, 2006,25(6): 1483-1494.
[30] 王晶晶. 地震灾害应急管理中的政府协调问题研究[D]. 上海:华东师范大学,2014.
[31] 罗成琳. 突发群体事件演化及其应对预案构建研究[D]. 哈尔滨: 哈尔滨工业大学,2009.
[2] WMO (World Meteorological Organization) . The global climate 2001-2010: a decade of climate extremes summary report[EB/OL]. (2013-05-24)[2018-08-05]. https://library.wmo.int/pmb_ged/wmo_1119_en.pdf.
[3] WMO (World Meteorological Organization) . WMO statement on the state of the global climate in 2017[EB/OL]. (2018-10-09)[2018-10-20]. https://library.wmo.int/doc_num.php?explnum_id=4453.
[4] HU L,HUANG G,QU X. Spatial and temporal features of summer extreme temperature over China during 1960-2013[J]. Theoretical & Applied Climatology,2016,128:1-13.
[5] 中国国家标准化管理委员会. GB/T 29457-2012高温热浪等级[S]. 北京:中国标准出版社,2013:1-3.
[6] 杨红龙,许吟隆,陶生才,等. 高温热浪脆弱性与适应性研究进展[J]. 科技导报,2010,28(19): 98-102.
[7] 叶殿秀,尹继福,陈正洪,等. 1961-2010年我国夏季高温热浪的时空变化特征[J]. 气候变化研究进展,2013,9(1):15-20.
[8] 孙智辉,王春乙. 气候变化对中国农业的影响[J]. 科技导报,2010,28(4):110-117.
[9] Hsiang S M, Burke M, Miguel E. Quantifying the influence of climate on human conflict[J]. Science,2013,341(6151): 1112-1126.
[10] 国家气象灾害应急预案[EB/OL]. ( 2010-03-08)[2018-08-08]. http://www.cma.gov.cn/2011zwxx/2011zflfg/2011zxzfg/201110/t20111027_135247.html.
[11] 福建省气象灾害应急预案[EB/OL]. (2011-04-17)[2018-08-08]. http://www.fujian.gov.cn/zc/zfxxgkl/gkml/jgzz/nlsyzcwj/201105/t20110505_1476604.htm.
[12] 许小峰. 《国家气象灾害应急预案》的实施成效与思考[J] . 中国应急管理,2015(3):6-10.
[13] 祝燕德. 重大气象灾害风险防范[M]. 北京:中国财政经济出版社,2009.
[14] 谈媛,缪旭明. 极端天气气候事件频现气象应急“常态化”——2010年极端天气气候事件引发的思考[J]. 中国应急管理, 2011(4):56-59.
[15] Lumbroso D M,Johnstone W,Bruijn K D,et al. Modelling Mass Evacuations To Improve The Emergency Planning For Floods In The Uk[R],The Netherlands And North America HRPP 472. 2010.
[16] Thévenaz C,Resodihardjo S L. All the best laid plans…conditions impeding proper emergency response[J]. International Journal of Production Economics,2010,126(1):7-21.
[17] 刘沛林,刘春腊. 南方特大冰雪灾害应急预案研究——以类似2008年我国南方特大冰灾为例[J]. 湖南社会科学, 2009(2):77-83.
[18] 刘吉夫,张盼娟,陈志芬,等. 我国自然灾害类应急预案评价方法研究(Ⅰ):完备性评价[J]. 中国安全科学学报,2008, 18(2):5-11.
[19] 刘吉夫,朱晶晶,张盼娟,等. 我国自然灾害类应急预案评价方法研究(Ⅱ):责任矩阵评价[J]. 中国安全科学学报,2008, 18(4):5-15.
[20] 张盼娟,陈晋,刘吉夫. 我国自然灾害类应急预案评价方法研究(Ⅲ):可操作性评价[J]. 中国安全科学学报,2008,18(10):16-25.
[21] Alexander D. Towards the development of a standard in emergency planning[J]. Disaster Prevention & Management,2013,14(2):158-175.
[22] 于静,冯国红,王震,等. 山东省抗旱预案体系建设思考[J]. 中国防汛抗旱,2018,28(3):52-54.
[23] 刘玲,周显信,罗美娟. 城市气象灾害专项应急预案编制实践与思考——以南昌为例[J]. 中国应急救援,2013(3):25-28.
[24] 程启竞. 关于编制抗旱预案有关问题的探析[J]. 中国农村水利水电,2002(1):11-12.
[25] 姜仁贵,王小杰,解建仓,等. 城市内涝应急预案管理研究与应用[J] . 灾害学,2018,33(2):146-150.
[26] 张祯,王建军,陈虹. 从大震救援分析国家地震应急预案存在的问题[J] . 灾害学,2011,26(4):139-142.
[27] 谢志清,杜银,曾燕等. 上海城市集群化发展显著增强局地高温热浪事件[J] . 气象学报,2015,73(6): 1104-1113.
[28] 祁新华,程煜,李达谋. 西方高温热浪研究述评[J] . 生态学报,2016,36(10):2773-2778.
[29] Poumadère M,Mays C,Mer S L,et al. The 2003 heat wave in France: dangerous climate change here and now[J]. Risk Analysis, 2006,25(6): 1483-1494.
[30] 王晶晶. 地震灾害应急管理中的政府协调问题研究[D]. 上海:华东师范大学,2014.
[31] 罗成琳. 突发群体事件演化及其应对预案构建研究[D]. 哈尔滨: 哈尔滨工业大学,2009.