基于灰色神经网络模型的民航安全监管工作优化研究
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摘要
运用串联型灰色神经网络组合模型分析了我国某地区管理局9年的机场管理类不安全事件数据,对历年来被监察单位不安全事件、各项监察问题的数量等动态客观数据进行分析。结果表明:监察计划不能只是基于大纲、上一年的监察情况甚至监察人员的经验进行制定,应通过分析历年来被监察单位不安全事件和各项监察问题的数量等动态客观数据,预测下一年不安全事件数量及某项工作的出错次数,对下一年的监察力度、频次和重点项目做出相应的更新和调整。
The tandem gray neural network combined model was used to analyze the airport management insecurity incident data of a certain regional bureau in China for nine years, and analyzed the dynamic and objective data such as the number of unsafe incidents and various monitoring issues over the years. The results show that the monitoring plan cannot be formulated based on the outline, the monitoring situation of the previous year, or even the experience of the inspectors. It should be forecasted through the analysis of dynamic and objective data such as the number of unsafe incidents and monitoring issues over the years to be monitored. The number of unsafe incidents in the next year and the number of errors in a certain work will be updated and adjusted accordingly in the next year's monitoring efforts, frequency, and key projects.
The tandem gray neural network combined model was used to analyze the airport management insecurity incident data of a certain regional bureau in China for nine years, and analyzed the dynamic and objective data such as the number of unsafe incidents and various monitoring issues over the years. The results show that the monitoring plan cannot be formulated based on the outline, the monitoring situation of the previous year, or even the experience of the inspectors. It should be forecasted through the analysis of dynamic and objective data such as the number of unsafe incidents and monitoring issues over the years to be monitored. The number of unsafe incidents in the next year and the number of errors in a certain work will be updated and adjusted accordingly in the next year's monitoring efforts, frequency, and key projects.
引文
[1]中国民用航空局航空安全办公室.中国民航不安全事件统计分析报告[R].中国民航科学技术研究院,2011
[2] Anonymous. Security Shortlines[J]. Air Safety Week,2009(2)
[3]王永刚,江涛.基于进化博弈论的不完全信息状况下的民航安全监管研究[J].安全与环境学报,2014(1):61-64
[4]王文轲等.民航安全监管中的多方演化博弈研究[J].中国安全科学学报,2016,26(1):136-141
[5]陈芳等.监察员背景特征对民航安全监管绩效的影响研究[J].数学的实践与认识,2017(5):16-24
[6]高利斌.大力抓好监察员培训锻造高素质监管队伍——记民航西北地区管理局监察员队伍建设及培训工作[J].中国民用航空,2011(8):72-73
[7]曾波平,高翔,李建美.民航监察员行政执法胜任力模型探讨[J].现代商贸工业,2016(1):95-97
[8]袁景凌,钟珞,李小燕.灰色神经网络的研究及发展[J].武汉理工大学学报,2009(3):91-93
[9]刘思峰等.灰色系统理论及其应用(第5版)[M].北京:科学出版社,2010:146-168
[10]王永刚,李辉.基于灰色神经网络的民航事故征候预测模型研究[J].中国安全科学学报,2012(3):10-15
[2] Anonymous. Security Shortlines[J]. Air Safety Week,2009(2)
[3]王永刚,江涛.基于进化博弈论的不完全信息状况下的民航安全监管研究[J].安全与环境学报,2014(1):61-64
[4]王文轲等.民航安全监管中的多方演化博弈研究[J].中国安全科学学报,2016,26(1):136-141
[5]陈芳等.监察员背景特征对民航安全监管绩效的影响研究[J].数学的实践与认识,2017(5):16-24
[6]高利斌.大力抓好监察员培训锻造高素质监管队伍——记民航西北地区管理局监察员队伍建设及培训工作[J].中国民用航空,2011(8):72-73
[7]曾波平,高翔,李建美.民航监察员行政执法胜任力模型探讨[J].现代商贸工业,2016(1):95-97
[8]袁景凌,钟珞,李小燕.灰色神经网络的研究及发展[J].武汉理工大学学报,2009(3):91-93
[9]刘思峰等.灰色系统理论及其应用(第5版)[M].北京:科学出版社,2010:146-168
[10]王永刚,李辉.基于灰色神经网络的民航事故征候预测模型研究[J].中国安全科学学报,2012(3):10-15
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