泥石流易发性评价模型的构建——以白龙江流域石门乡羊汤河段为例
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摘要
以白龙江流域石门乡至羊汤河段为例,采用松散物质面密度、地层岩性、构造断裂密度、地震密度、坡向、土壤可蚀性、土地利用类型、坡长坡度、沟床比降、流域沟壑密度及年均降雨量等11项评价因子的归一化值,在GIS平台下运用层次分析法建立泥石流易发性评价模型,将研究区泥石流易发性评价栅格图划分为4个等级。研究表明:泥石流中高易发区域占整个研究区面积的51. 04%,区内发育的泥石流流域面积占中高易发区面积的68. 71%,其分布特点具有沿大型活动性断裂呈带状分布,在次级断裂和小型褶皱密集区集中发育;沿易崩易滑地层呈片状展布,在沟壑密集带分区块集中发育;在坡面侵蚀强的区域多为泥石流高易发区,呈串珠状连片分布。利用研究区泥石流数据库对评价结果进行检验,检验曲线表明分区效果良好,检验曲线下面积即AUC值为62. 13%,说明易发性评价结果较为可靠。
In this study,the hierarchy analysis,GIS means and normalized values of 9 evaluation factors,such as loose material surface density,stratigraphic lithology,tectonic fracture density,seismic density,slope aspect,soil erodibility,land use type,slope length and gradient,gully bed slope and gully density,and average annual rainfall,were used. The purposes of the study was to develop an assessment model for debris flow susceptibility along the Yangtang river reach in Shimen Township in the Bailong River Basin. Finally,the grid diagram of assessing debris flow susceptibility in the study area was divided into 4 grades. The results showed that the proportion of the areas with high debris flow susceptibility accounted for 51. 04% of the whole study area,and the areas with mid-high debris flow susceptibility accounted for 68. 71%. The debris flows were distributed along the large active fault zones,especially in the zones with intensive secondary fractures and small folds. They were also distributed along the slidable strata,especially in the zones with dense gullies. Debris flow occurred easily on the slopes with high soil erosion. The results were tested by the database of debris flow in the study area.
In this study,the hierarchy analysis,GIS means and normalized values of 9 evaluation factors,such as loose material surface density,stratigraphic lithology,tectonic fracture density,seismic density,slope aspect,soil erodibility,land use type,slope length and gradient,gully bed slope and gully density,and average annual rainfall,were used. The purposes of the study was to develop an assessment model for debris flow susceptibility along the Yangtang river reach in Shimen Township in the Bailong River Basin. Finally,the grid diagram of assessing debris flow susceptibility in the study area was divided into 4 grades. The results showed that the proportion of the areas with high debris flow susceptibility accounted for 51. 04% of the whole study area,and the areas with mid-high debris flow susceptibility accounted for 68. 71%. The debris flows were distributed along the large active fault zones,especially in the zones with intensive secondary fractures and small folds. They were also distributed along the slidable strata,especially in the zones with dense gullies. Debris flow occurred easily on the slopes with high soil erosion. The results were tested by the database of debris flow in the study area.
引文
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[11]陈玉.基于经验权重方法的舟曲县泥石流易发性评估[J].防灾科技学院学报,2013,15(4):54-60.[Chen Yu.Debris flow susceptibility assessment of Zhouqu Gansu,China based on experience weight method[J].Journal of Institute of Disaster Prevention,2013,15(4):54-60.]
[12]柳金峰,黄江成,欧国强,等.甘肃陇南武都区泥石流易发性评价[J].中国地质灾害与防治学报,2010,21(4):8-13.[Liu Jinfeng,Huang Jiangcheng,Ou Guoqiang,et al.Susceptility evaluation of debris flow in the Wudu District,Longnan City,Gansu Province[J].The Chinese Journal of Geological Hazard and Control,2010,21(4):8-13.]
[13]孟兴民,陈冠,郭鹏,等.白龙江流域滑坡泥石流灾害研究进展与展望[J].海洋地质与第四纪地质,2013,33(4):1-15.[Meng Xingming,Chen Guan,Guo Peng,et al.Research of landslides ans debris flow in Bailong river basin:Progress and prospect[J].Marine Geology&Quaternary Geology,2013,33(4):1-15.]
[14]刘传正,苗天宝,陈红旗,等.甘肃舟曲2010年8月8日特大山洪泥石流灾害的基本特征及成因[J].地质通报,2011,30(1):141-150.[Liu Chuanzheng,Miao Tianbao,Chen Hongqi,et al.Basic feature and origin of the“8.8”mountain torrent-debris flow disaster happened in Zhouqu County,Gansu,China[J].Geological Bulletin of China,2011,30(1):141-150.]
[15]林虹宇,丁明涛,佘涛,等.岷江上游典型泥石流活动特征及其易发性评价[J].中国地质灾害与防治学报,2017,28(4):6-14.[Lin Hongyu,Ding Mingtao,She Tao,et al.Characteristic analysis and susceptibility assessment of the typical debris flow in the upper reaches of Min River[J].The Chinese Journal of Geological Hazard and Control,2017,28(4):6-14.]
[16]黄诗峰,钟邵南,徐美.基于GIS的流域土壤侵蚀量估算指标模型方法---以嘉陵江上游西汉水流域为例[J].水土保持学报,2001,15(2):105-107.[Huang Shifeng,Zhong Shaonan,Xu Mei.Categorical modal od estimating soil erosion based on GIS:Acase study in Xihanshui Watershed[J].Journal of Soil and Water Conservation,2001,15(2):105-107.]
[17]彭建,李丹丹,张玉清.基于GIS和RUSLE的滇西北山区土壤侵蚀空间特征分析---以云南省丽江县为例[J].山地学报,2007,25(5):548-556.[Peng Jian,Li Dandan,Zhang Yuqing.Analysis of spatial characteristics of soil erosion in mountain areas of Northwestern Yunnan based on GIS and RUSLE[J].Journal of Mountan Science,2007,25(5):548-556.]
[18]王高峰,高幼龙,王洪德,等.基于图幅调查的六盘山镇滑坡易发性研究[J].科学技术与工程,2017,17(36):22-29.[Wang Gaofeng,Gao Youlong,Wang Hongde,et al.Analyses on landslide susceptibility of Liupanshan town based on map sheet survey[J].Science Technology and Engineering,2017,17(36):22-29.]
[19]黎志恒,贾贵义,张永军,等.甘肃省白龙江流域主要城镇环境工程地质勘查报告[R].兰州:甘肃省地质环境监测院,2013.[Li Zhiheng,Jia Guiyi,Zhang Yongjun,et al.Report of Environmental Engineering Geological Exploration of Main Towns in Bailong River Basin,Gansu Province[R].Lanzhou:Institute of Geological and Environmental Monitoring,Gansu Province,2013.]
[2]Carrara A,Cardinali M,Guzzetti F.Uncertainty in assessing landslide hazard and risk[J].ITC Journal,1992,2:172-183.
[3]岳溪柳,黄玫,徐庆勇,等.贵州省喀斯特地区泥石流灾害易发性评价[J].地球信息科学学报,2015,17(11):1 395-1 403.[Yue Xiliu,Huang Mei,Xu Qingyong,et al.The susceptility assessmeng of debris flow in Karst Region of Guizhou province[J].Journal of Geo-Information Science,2015,17(11):1 395-1 403.]
[4]黎艳,陈剑,许冲,等.基于AHP的半干旱区泥石流易发性评价---以金沙江上游奔子栏-昌波河段为例[J].现代地质,2015,29(4):975-982.[Li Yan,Chen Jian,Xu Chong,et al.Susceptibility assessmeng of debris flow in the semiarid region based on AHP method:An example from the Benzilan-Changbo segmeng of the Upper Jinsha river[J].Geoscience,2015,29(4):975-982.]
[5]孟凡奇,李广杰,秦胜伍,等.基于证据权法的泥石流危险度区划[J].吉林大学学报(地球科学版),2010,40(6):1 380-1 384.[Meng Fanqi,Li Guangjie,Qin Shengwu,et al.Zoning of debris flow hazard degree with weigth of evidence method[J].Journal of Jilin University(Earth Science Edition),2010,40(6):1 380-1 384.]
[6]张若琳,孟晖,连建发.基于GIS的中国泥石流易发性评价[J].成都理工大学学报(自然科学版),2013,40(4):379-386.[Zhang Ruolin,Meng Hui,Lian Jianfa.Susceptibility evaluation of debris flow in Chian based on GIS[J].Journal of Chengdu University of Technlology(Science&Technology Edition),2013,40(4):379-386.]
[7]刘希林,庙成,田春山.区域滑坡和泥石流灾害两种危险性评价方法的比较分析[J].防灾减灾工程学报,2017,37(1):71-78.[Liu Xilin,Miao Cheng,Tian Chunshan.Comparative analysis of two methods for assessment hazard of landslide and debris flow on a regional scale[J].Journal of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation Engineering,2017,37(1):71-78.]
[8]贾贵义,全永庆,黎志恒,等.基于组合赋权法的白龙江流域甘肃段地质灾害危险性评价[J].冰川冻土,2014,36(5):1 227-1 236.[Jia Guiyi,Quan Yongqing,Li Zhiheng,et al.Geo-hazards assessment for the Gansu segment in Bailongjiang river basin by using combination weighting method[J].Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology,2014,36(5):1 227-1 236.]
[9]宁娜,马金珠,张鹏,等.基于GIS和信息量法的甘肃南部白龙江流域泥石流灾害危险性评价[J].资源科学,2013,35(4):892-899.[Ning Na,Ma Jinzhu,Zhang Peng,et al.Debris flow hazard assessment for the Bailongjiang River,Southern Gansu[J].Resources Science,2013,35(4):892-899.]
[10]刘林通,孟兴民,郭鹏.等.基于流域单元和信息量法的白龙江流域泥石流危险性评价[J].兰州大学学报(自然科学版),2017,53(3):292-298.[Liu Lintong,Meng Xingmin,Guo Peng,et al.Assessment of debris flow hazards in the Bailongjiang river based on the watershed unit and information value method[J].Journal of Lanzhou University(Naturnal Sciences Edition),2017,53(3):292-298.]
[11]陈玉.基于经验权重方法的舟曲县泥石流易发性评估[J].防灾科技学院学报,2013,15(4):54-60.[Chen Yu.Debris flow susceptibility assessment of Zhouqu Gansu,China based on experience weight method[J].Journal of Institute of Disaster Prevention,2013,15(4):54-60.]
[12]柳金峰,黄江成,欧国强,等.甘肃陇南武都区泥石流易发性评价[J].中国地质灾害与防治学报,2010,21(4):8-13.[Liu Jinfeng,Huang Jiangcheng,Ou Guoqiang,et al.Susceptility evaluation of debris flow in the Wudu District,Longnan City,Gansu Province[J].The Chinese Journal of Geological Hazard and Control,2010,21(4):8-13.]
[13]孟兴民,陈冠,郭鹏,等.白龙江流域滑坡泥石流灾害研究进展与展望[J].海洋地质与第四纪地质,2013,33(4):1-15.[Meng Xingming,Chen Guan,Guo Peng,et al.Research of landslides ans debris flow in Bailong river basin:Progress and prospect[J].Marine Geology&Quaternary Geology,2013,33(4):1-15.]
[14]刘传正,苗天宝,陈红旗,等.甘肃舟曲2010年8月8日特大山洪泥石流灾害的基本特征及成因[J].地质通报,2011,30(1):141-150.[Liu Chuanzheng,Miao Tianbao,Chen Hongqi,et al.Basic feature and origin of the“8.8”mountain torrent-debris flow disaster happened in Zhouqu County,Gansu,China[J].Geological Bulletin of China,2011,30(1):141-150.]
[15]林虹宇,丁明涛,佘涛,等.岷江上游典型泥石流活动特征及其易发性评价[J].中国地质灾害与防治学报,2017,28(4):6-14.[Lin Hongyu,Ding Mingtao,She Tao,et al.Characteristic analysis and susceptibility assessment of the typical debris flow in the upper reaches of Min River[J].The Chinese Journal of Geological Hazard and Control,2017,28(4):6-14.]
[16]黄诗峰,钟邵南,徐美.基于GIS的流域土壤侵蚀量估算指标模型方法---以嘉陵江上游西汉水流域为例[J].水土保持学报,2001,15(2):105-107.[Huang Shifeng,Zhong Shaonan,Xu Mei.Categorical modal od estimating soil erosion based on GIS:Acase study in Xihanshui Watershed[J].Journal of Soil and Water Conservation,2001,15(2):105-107.]
[17]彭建,李丹丹,张玉清.基于GIS和RUSLE的滇西北山区土壤侵蚀空间特征分析---以云南省丽江县为例[J].山地学报,2007,25(5):548-556.[Peng Jian,Li Dandan,Zhang Yuqing.Analysis of spatial characteristics of soil erosion in mountain areas of Northwestern Yunnan based on GIS and RUSLE[J].Journal of Mountan Science,2007,25(5):548-556.]
[18]王高峰,高幼龙,王洪德,等.基于图幅调查的六盘山镇滑坡易发性研究[J].科学技术与工程,2017,17(36):22-29.[Wang Gaofeng,Gao Youlong,Wang Hongde,et al.Analyses on landslide susceptibility of Liupanshan town based on map sheet survey[J].Science Technology and Engineering,2017,17(36):22-29.]
[19]黎志恒,贾贵义,张永军,等.甘肃省白龙江流域主要城镇环境工程地质勘查报告[R].兰州:甘肃省地质环境监测院,2013.[Li Zhiheng,Jia Guiyi,Zhang Yongjun,et al.Report of Environmental Engineering Geological Exploration of Main Towns in Bailong River Basin,Gansu Province[R].Lanzhou:Institute of Geological and Environmental Monitoring,Gansu Province,2013.]
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