中国胃癌发病趋势及预测
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摘要
[目的]分析我国胃癌发病变化趋势,预测2020年全国胃癌发病率和发病数。[方法]提取2000～2014年全国肿瘤登记中心有连续数据的22个肿瘤登记处的胃癌发病数据,利用Joinpoint软件分析胃癌发病情况的趋势。对男性和女性各年龄组的发病率拟合对数线性模型并预测各年龄组2020年的发病率,结合联合国的人口估计值预测2020年全国胃癌发病情况。[结果] 2000～2014年肿瘤登记地区胃癌发病率趋势平稳,年均变化百分比(AAPC)为0.2%;标化率下降明显,AAPC为-2.9%;发病数上升明显,AAPC为2.8%。2020年预计全国胃癌发病率为24.30/10万,新发病例数约为34.6万(男性23.7万,女性10.9万)。[结论]我国胃癌发病率已趋于平稳,但总发病数还将随人口老龄化的加剧而增加。
[Purpose] To analyze the trend of stomach cancer incidence in China,and to predict the incidence rate and the number of new cases of stomach cancer in 2020. [Methods] Data on stomach cancer incidence during 2000～2014 sent to National Central Cancer Registry from 22 cancer registries were extracted. Trend of incidence was analyzed using Joinpoint software. Log-linear model was fitted for each age group of men and women to predict the incidence rate in 2020. Overall incidence in 2020 was predicted using the population projections by United Nations. [Results]Trend of incidence rate of stomach cancer in cancer registry areas in China during 2000～2014 was stable,with average annual percentage change(AAPC) being 0.2%,while age-standardized incidence rate decreased significantly(AAPC=-2.9%) and the number of new cases increased significantly(AAPC=2.8%). It is predicted that the incidence rate of stomach cancer in China will be 24.30/10~5 in 2020 and number of new cases will be 346 thousands(237 thousands for men,109 thousands for women). [Conclusion] Though the trend of incidence rate of stomach cancer in China is stable,the number of new cases will keep rising due to the ageing of population.
[Purpose] To analyze the trend of stomach cancer incidence in China,and to predict the incidence rate and the number of new cases of stomach cancer in 2020. [Methods] Data on stomach cancer incidence during 2000～2014 sent to National Central Cancer Registry from 22 cancer registries were extracted. Trend of incidence was analyzed using Joinpoint software. Log-linear model was fitted for each age group of men and women to predict the incidence rate in 2020. Overall incidence in 2020 was predicted using the population projections by United Nations. [Results]Trend of incidence rate of stomach cancer in cancer registry areas in China during 2000～2014 was stable,with average annual percentage change(AAPC) being 0.2%,while age-standardized incidence rate decreased significantly(AAPC=-2.9%) and the number of new cases increased significantly(AAPC=2.8%). It is predicted that the incidence rate of stomach cancer in China will be 24.30/10~5 in 2020 and number of new cases will be 346 thousands(237 thousands for men,109 thousands for women). [Conclusion] Though the trend of incidence rate of stomach cancer in China is stable,the number of new cases will keep rising due to the ageing of population.
引文
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[2]Torre LA,Bray F,Siegel RL,et al.Global cancer statistics,2012[J].CA Cancer J Clin,2015,65(2):87-108.
[3]Zhang SW,Yang ZX,Zheng RS,et al.Incidence and mortality of stomach cancer in China,2013[J].Chinese Journal of Oncololgy,2017,39(7):547-552.[张思维,杨之洵,郑荣寿,等.2013年中国胃癌发病与死亡分析[J].中华肿瘤杂志,2017,39(7):547-552.]
[4]Zheng RS,Gu XY,Li XT,et al.Analysis on the trend of cancer incidence and age change in cancer registry areas of China,2000 to 2014[J].Chinese Journal of Preventive Medicine,2018,52(6):593-600.[郑荣寿,顾秀瑛,李雪婷,等.2000-2014年中国肿瘤登记地区癌症发病趋势及年龄变化分析[J].中华预防医学杂志,2018,52(6):593-600.]
[5]Le Cornet C,Lortet-Tieulent J,Forman D,et al.Testicular cancer incidence to rise by 25%by 2025 in Europe?Model-based predictions in 40 countries using population-based registry data[J].Eur J Cancer,2014,50(4):831-839.
[6]Quante AS,Ming C,Rottmann M,et al.Projections of cancer incidence and cancer-related deaths in Germany by2020 and 2030[J].Cancer Med,2016,5(9):2649-2656.
[7]Smittenaar CR,Petersen KA,Stewart K,et al.Cancer incidence and mortality projections in the UK until 2035[J].Br J Cancer,2016,115(9):1147-1155.
[8]Chen W,Zheng R,Baade PD,et al.Cancer statistics in China,2015[J].CA Cancer J Clin,2016,66(2):115-132.
[9]Gu XY,Zheng RS,Zhang SW,et al.Analysis on the trend of prostate cancer incidence and age change in cancer registration areas of China,2000 to 2014[J].Chinese Journal of Preventive Medicine,2018,52(6):586-592.[顾秀瑛,郑荣寿,张思维,等.2000-2014年中国肿瘤登记地区前列腺癌发病趋势及年龄变化分析[J].中华预防医学杂志,2018,52(6):586-592.]
[10]Sun KX,Zheng RS,Gu XY,et al.Incidence trend and change in the age distribution of female breast cancer in cancer registration areas of China from 2000 to 2014[J].Chinese Journal of Preventive Medicine,2018,52(6):567-572.[孙可欣,郑荣寿,顾秀瑛,等.2000-2014年中国肿瘤登记地区女性乳腺癌发病趋势及年龄变化情况分析[J].中华预防医学杂志,2018,52(6):567-572.]
[11]Zhang SW,Zheng RS,Yang ZX,et al.Trend analysis on incidence and age at diagnosis for lung cancer in cancer registration areas of China,2000-2014[J].Chinese Journal of Preventive Medicine,2018,52(6):579-585.[张思维,郑荣寿,杨之洵,等.2000-2014年中国肿瘤登记地区肺癌发病年龄变化趋势分析[J].中华预防医学杂志,2018,52(6):579-585.]
[12]Zeng HM,Cao MM,Zheng RS,et al.Trend analysis of age of diagnosis for liver cancer in cancer registry areas of China,2000-2014[J].Chinese Journal of Preventive Medicine,2018,52(6):573-578.[曾红梅,曹毛毛,郑荣寿,等.2000-2014年中国肿瘤登记地区肝癌发病年龄变化趋势分析[J].中华预防医学杂志,2018,52(6):573-578.]
[13]Department of Economic and Social Affairs.World population prospects:the 2017 revision[M].New York:United Nations,2017.
[14]Jung KW,Won YJ,Kong HJ,et al.Prediction of cancer incidence and mortality in Korea,2018[J].Cancer Res Treat,2018,50(2):317-323.
[15]Jung KW,Won YJ,Oh CM,et al.Prediction of cancer incidence and mortality in Korea,2017[J].Cancer Res Treat,2017,49(2):306-312.
[16]Fitzmaurice C,Dicker D,Pain A,et al.The global burden of cancer 2013[J].JAMA Oncol,2015,1(4):505-527.
[17]Zadnik V,Primic Zakelj M,Lokar K,et al.Cancer burden in slovenia with the time trends analysis[J].Radiol Oncol,2017,51(1):47-55.
[18]Shao L,Li P,Ye J,et al.Risk of gastric cancer among patients with gastric intestinal metaplasia[J].Int J Cancer,2018,143):1671-1677.
[19]Camargo MC,Freedman ND,Hollenbeck AR,et al.Height,weight,and body mass index associations with gastric cancer subsites[J].Gastric Cancer,2014,17(3):463-468.
[20]Kim JY,Lee HS,Kim N,et al.Prevalence and clinicopathologic characteristics of gastric cardia cancer in South Korea[J].Helicobacter,2012,17(5):358-368.
[21]Plummer M,Franceschi S,Vignat J,et al.Global burden of gastric cancer attributable to Helicobacter pylori[J].Int J Cancer,2015,136(2):487-490.
[22]Wen D,Zhang L,Wang X,et al.A 5.5-year surveillance of esophageal and gastric cardia precursors after a population-based screening in China[J].J Gastroenterol Hepatol,2015,30(12):1720-1725.
[23]Ji J,Sundquist J,Sundquist K.Associations of alcohol use disorders with esophageal and gastric can cers:a population-based study in Sweden[J].Eur J Cancer Prev,2017,26(2):119-124.
[24]Xiang W,Shi JF,Li P,et al.Estimation of cancer cases and deaths attributable to infection in China[J].Cancer Causes Control,2011,22(8):1153-1161.
[25]Anderson WF,Rabkin CS,Turner N,et al.The changing face of noncardiagastric cancer incidence among US non-hispanic whites[J].J Natl Cancer Inst,2018,110(6):608-615.
[26]Abrams JA,Sharaiha RZ,Gonsalves L,et al.Dating the rise of esophageal adenocarcinoma:analysis of Connecticut Tumor Registry data,1940-2007[J].Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev,2011,20(1):183-186.
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