基于地统计二阶广义线性混合模型的黄海冬季小黄鱼时空分布和资源量指数估算
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摘要
使用地统计二阶广义线性混合模型(geostatistical delta-GLMM)分析了2001—2011和2015—2017年黄、渤海小黄鱼越冬群体在黄海中部、南部的空间分布,并用geostatistical delta-GLMM、基于普通克里格插值法和基于站位调查设计的扫海面积法分别估计了小黄鱼资源量指数,对geostatistical delta-GLMM相较基于普通克里格插值法和基于站位调查设计的性能进行了比较研究。结果显示,在2001和2002年,黄海越冬场主要存在北部(36°00′～37°37.5′N,123°15′～124°15′E)、中部(33°75′～36°00′N,123°15′～124°75′E)和东南部(32°00′～33°75′N,124°00′～125°15′E)3个生物量高密度区,其中中部区密度最高。从2003年开始,小黄鱼的生物量密度开始下降,北部和东南部高密度区下降程度高于中部高密度区;至2016—2017年高密度区变得不明显。冬季小黄鱼总资源量指数与小黄鱼的年产量、渔船功率变化趋势相反,呈下降趋势,且大部分年份站位数在37站以上,站位范围覆盖了本实验区域,可排除采样站位因素,这说明小黄鱼资源仍面临过度捕捞,种群处于衰退状态。研究表明,地统计二阶广义线性混合模型估计的2001—2017年冬季黄海中部、南部小黄鱼的总资源量指数相对扫海面积法和普通克里格法的估计值精确度更高。
Larimichthys polyactis is an important economic bottom fish in China. Understanding the spatial and temporal distribution and abundance index of L. polyactis contributes to the scientific management of L. polyactis resources. In this study, the Geostatistical delta-generalized linear mixed models(geostatistical delta-GLMM) was used to analyze the spatial distribution of the wintering population of the Yellow Sea and Bohai Sea L. polyactis from 2001 to 2011 and from 2015 to 2017 in the central and southern Yellow Sea. The biomass index of L.polyactis was estimated by geostatistical delta-GLMM, ordinary Kriging interpolation-based method and designbased swept area method, respectively. The results showed that there were mainly three high-density areas of biomass areas in the overwintering ground of the Yellow Sea in 2001 and 2002, namely, the north(36°00′-37°37.5′N, 123°15′-124°15′E), the central(33°75′-36°00′N, 123°15′-124°75′E) and the southeast(32°00′-33°75′N,124°00′-125°15′E), and the central region had the highest density. Since 2003, the biomass density of L. polyactis has declined, and the density core area in the north and southeast has declined more than the central density core area. In winter, the total biomass index of L. polyactis is contrary to the change trend of the annual yield of L.polyactis and fishing boat power, showing a downward trend. In most years, the number of stations is more than 37, and the range of stations covers the study area. The factors of sampling stations can be excluded, which indicates that the resources of L. polyactis are still facing overfishing and the population is in a declining state. By 2016—2017, the density core area became less obvious. The geostatistical delta-GLMM estimated the total biomass index of the L. polyactis in the winter of 2001—2017 is more accurate than that estimated by the swept area method and ordinary Kriging interpolation-based method.
Larimichthys polyactis is an important economic bottom fish in China. Understanding the spatial and temporal distribution and abundance index of L. polyactis contributes to the scientific management of L. polyactis resources. In this study, the Geostatistical delta-generalized linear mixed models(geostatistical delta-GLMM) was used to analyze the spatial distribution of the wintering population of the Yellow Sea and Bohai Sea L. polyactis from 2001 to 2011 and from 2015 to 2017 in the central and southern Yellow Sea. The biomass index of L.polyactis was estimated by geostatistical delta-GLMM, ordinary Kriging interpolation-based method and designbased swept area method, respectively. The results showed that there were mainly three high-density areas of biomass areas in the overwintering ground of the Yellow Sea in 2001 and 2002, namely, the north(36°00′-37°37.5′N, 123°15′-124°15′E), the central(33°75′-36°00′N, 123°15′-124°75′E) and the southeast(32°00′-33°75′N,124°00′-125°15′E), and the central region had the highest density. Since 2003, the biomass density of L. polyactis has declined, and the density core area in the north and southeast has declined more than the central density core area. In winter, the total biomass index of L. polyactis is contrary to the change trend of the annual yield of L.polyactis and fishing boat power, showing a downward trend. In most years, the number of stations is more than 37, and the range of stations covers the study area. The factors of sampling stations can be excluded, which indicates that the resources of L. polyactis are still facing overfishing and the population is in a declining state. By 2016—2017, the density core area became less obvious. The geostatistical delta-GLMM estimated the total biomass index of the L. polyactis in the winter of 2001—2017 is more accurate than that estimated by the swept area method and ordinary Kriging interpolation-based method.
引文
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[25]林群,王俊,袁伟,等.捕捞和环境变化对渤海生态系统的影响[J].中国水产科学,2016,23(3):619-629.Lin Q,Wang J,Yuan W,et al.Effects of fishing and environmental change on the ecosystem of the Bohai Sea[J].Journal of Fishery Sciences of China,2016,23(3):619-629(in Chinese).
[26]王跃中,孙典荣,林昭进,等.捕捞压力和气候因素对黄渤海带鱼渔获量变化的影响[J].中国水产科学,2012,19(6):1043-1050.Wang Y Z,Sun D R,Lin Z J,et al.Analysis on responses of Hairtail catches to fishing and climate factors in the Yellow Sea and Bohai Sea,China[J].Journal of Fishery Sciences of China,2012,19(6):1043-1050(in Chinese).
[27]Lin X P,Yang J Y,Guo J S,et al.An asymmetric upwind flow,Yellow Sea warm current:1.new observations in the western Yellow Sea[J].Journal of Geophysical Research:Oceans,2011,116(C4):C04026.
[28]Chen Y L,Shan X J,Jin X S,et al.Changes in fish diversity and community structure in the central and southern Yellow Sea from 2003 to 2015[J].Journal of Oceanology and Limnology,2018,36(3):805-817.
[29]李建生,林龙山,程家骅.东海北部秋季小黄鱼分布特征及其与底层温度和盐度的关系[J].中国水产科学,2009,16(3):348-356.Li J S,Lin L S,Cheng J H.Distribution characteristic of small yellow croaker(Larimichthys polyactis Bleeker)and its relationship with bottom water temperature and salinity in the northern East China Sea in autumn[J].Journal of Fishery Sciences of China,2009,16(3):348-356(in Chinese).
[30]刘笑笑,王晶,徐宾铎,等.捕捞压力和气候变化对黄渤海小黄鱼渔获量的影响[J].中国海洋大学学报2017,47(8):58-64.Liu X X,Wang J,Xu B D,et al.Impacts of fishing pressure and climate change on catches of small yellow croaker in the Yellow Sea and the Bohai Sea[J].Periodi cal of Ocean University of China,2017,47(8):58-64(in Chinese).
[31]Gertseva V V,Thorson J T.Status of the darkblotched rockfish resource off the continental U.S.Pacific Coast in 2013[R].Seattle,Washington:U.S.Department of Commerce,2013.
[32]Perry A L,Low P J,Ellis J R,et al.Climate change and distribution shifts in marine fishes[J].Science,2005,308(5730):1912-1915.
[33]Bell R J,Richardson D E,Hare J A,et al.Disentangling the effects of climate,abundance,and size on the distribution of marine fish:an example based on four stocks from the Northeast US shelf[J].ICES Journal of Marine Science,2015,72(5):1311-1322.
[34]Jerosch K.Geostatistical mapping and spatial variability of surficial sediment types on the Beaufort Shelf based on grain size data[J].Journal of Marine Systems,2013,127:5-13.
[2]张寒野,程家骅.东海区小黄鱼空间格局的地统计学分析[J].中国水产科学,2015,12(4):419-423.Zhang H Y,Cheng J H.Geostatistical analysis on spatial patterns of small yellow croaker(Larimichthys polyactis)in the East China Sea[J].Journal of Fishery Sciences of China,2015,12(4):419-423(in Chinese).
[3]农业部水产局,农业部黄海区渔业指挥部.黄、渤海区渔业资源调查和区划[M].北京:海洋出版社,1990:191-192.Ministry of Agriculture Fisheries Bureau,Fisheries Command of the Yellow Sea Region of the Ministry of Agriculture.Fishery resources investigation and regionalization in Bohai District of Yellow Sea[M].Beijing:China Ocean Press,1990:191-192(in Chinese).
[4]金显仕,赵宪勇,孟田湘,等.黄、渤海生物资源与栖息环境[M].北京:科学出版社,2005:241-261.Jin X S,Zhao X Y,Meng T X,et al.The Yellow Sea and Bohai Sea biological resources and habitats[M].Beijing:Science Press,2005:241-261(in Chinese).
[5]张国政.黄海小黄鱼种群特征及其影响因素研究[D].青岛:中国海洋大学,2010.Zhang G Z.Population characteristics and its influencing factors of small yellow croaker in the Yellow Sea[D].Qingdao:Ocean University of China,2010(in Chinese).
[6]李忠炉.黄渤海小黄鱼、大头鳕和黄鮟鱇种群生物学特征的年际变化[D].青岛:中国科学院研究生院(海洋研究所),2011:40-55.Li Z L.Interannual changes in biological characteristics of small yellow croaker Larimichthys polyactis,Pacific cod Gadus macrocephalus and anglerfish Lophius litulon in the Bohai Sea and Yellow Sea[D].Qingdao:The Institute of Oceanology,Chinese Academy of Sciences,2011:40-55(in Chinese).
[7]郭旭鹏,金显仕,戴芳群.渤海小黄鱼生长特征的变化[J].中国水产科学,2006,13(2):243-249.Guo X P,Jin X S,Dai F Q.Growth variations of small yellow croaker(Pseudosciaena polyactis Bleeker)in the Bohai Sea[J].Journal of Fishery Sciences of China,2006,13(2):243-249(in Chinese).
[8]Keith D M,Hutchings J A.Population dynamics of marine fishes at low abundance[J].Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences,2012,69(7):1150-1163.
[9]Shelton A O,Thorson J T,Ward E J,et al.Spatial semiparametric models improve estimates of species abundance and distribution[J].Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences,2014,71(11):1655-1666.
[10]Chris Francis R I C.Data weighting in statistical fisheries stock assessment models[J].Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences,2011,68(6):1124-1138.
[11]Rooper C N,Martin M H.Comparison of habitat-based indices of abundance with fishery-independent biomass estimates from bottom trawl surveys[J].Fishery Bulletin,2012,110(1):21-35.
[12]Lewy P L,Kristensen K.Modelling the distribution of fish accounting for spatial correlation and overdispersion[J].Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences,2015,66(10):1809-1820.
[13]Walters C.Folly and fantasy in the analysis of spatial catch rate data[J].Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences,2003,60(12):1433-1436.
[14]Maunder M N,Punt A E.Standardizing catch and effort data:a review of recent approaches[J].Fisheries Research,2004,69(2):141-159.
[15]Thorson J T,Shelton A O,Ward E J,et al.Geostatistical delta-generalized linear mixed models improve precision for estimated abundance indices for West Coast groundfishes[J].ICES Journal of Marine Science,2015,72(5):1297-1310.
[16]Thorson J T,Pinsky M L,Ward E J.Model-based inference for estimating shifts in species distribution,area occupied and centre of gravity[J].Methods in Ecology and Evolution,2016,7(8):990-1002.
[17]陈云龙.黄海和长江口水域渔业资源时空变化的研究[D].青岛:中国科学院大学(中国科学院海洋研究所),2017:21-35.Chen Y L.Spatio-temporal variation of fishery resources in the Yellow Sea and Yangtze River estuary[D].Qingdao:the Institute of Oceanology,Chinese Academy of Sciences,2017:21-35(in Chinese).
[18]单秀娟,李忠炉,戴芳群,等.黄海中南部小黄鱼种群生物学特征的季节变化和年际变化[J].渔业科学进展,2011,32(6):7-16.Shan X J,Li Z L,Dai F Q,et al.Seasonal and annual variations in biological characteristics of small yellow croaker Larimichthys polyactis in the central and southern Yellow Sea[J].Progress in Fishery Sciences,2011,32(6):7-16(in Chinese).
[19]Pinsky M L,Worm B,Fogarty M J,et al.Marine taxa track local climate velocities[J].Science,2013,341(6151):1239-1242.
[20]农业部渔业渔政管理局.中国渔业统计年鉴2001-2016[M].北京:中国农业出版社,2001-2016:10-80.Fishery and Fishery Administration Bureau of the Ministry of Agriculture.China fishery statistical yearbook:2001-2016[M].Beijing:China Agriculture Press,2001-2016:10-80(in Chinese).
[21]Schnute J T,Boers N,Haigh R.PBS mapping:mapping fisheries data and spatial analysis tools[CP/OL].https://cran.r-project.org/package=PBSmapping.2017.06.29.
[22]Kristensen K,Nielsen A,Berg C W,et al.TMB:automatic differentiation and Laplace approximation[J].Journal of Statistical Software,2016,70(5):4160.
[23]单秀娟,陈云龙,金显仕,等.气候变化对长江口鱼类资源密度分布的重塑作用[J].渔业科学进展,2016,37(6):1-10.Shan X J,Chen Y L,Jin X S,et al.Reshaping the distribution of fish abundance by climate change:a case study in the Yangtze River estuary[J].Progress in Fishery Sciences,2016,37(6):1-10(in Chinese).
[24]徐炜,马志远,井新,等.生物多样性与生态系统多功能性:进展与展望[J].生物多样性,2016,24(1):55-71.Xu W,Ma Z Y,Jing X,et al.Biodiversity and ecosystem multifunctionality:advances and perspectives[J].Biodiversity Science,2016,24(1):55-71(in Chinese).
[25]林群,王俊,袁伟,等.捕捞和环境变化对渤海生态系统的影响[J].中国水产科学,2016,23(3):619-629.Lin Q,Wang J,Yuan W,et al.Effects of fishing and environmental change on the ecosystem of the Bohai Sea[J].Journal of Fishery Sciences of China,2016,23(3):619-629(in Chinese).
[26]王跃中,孙典荣,林昭进,等.捕捞压力和气候因素对黄渤海带鱼渔获量变化的影响[J].中国水产科学,2012,19(6):1043-1050.Wang Y Z,Sun D R,Lin Z J,et al.Analysis on responses of Hairtail catches to fishing and climate factors in the Yellow Sea and Bohai Sea,China[J].Journal of Fishery Sciences of China,2012,19(6):1043-1050(in Chinese).
[27]Lin X P,Yang J Y,Guo J S,et al.An asymmetric upwind flow,Yellow Sea warm current:1.new observations in the western Yellow Sea[J].Journal of Geophysical Research:Oceans,2011,116(C4):C04026.
[28]Chen Y L,Shan X J,Jin X S,et al.Changes in fish diversity and community structure in the central and southern Yellow Sea from 2003 to 2015[J].Journal of Oceanology and Limnology,2018,36(3):805-817.
[29]李建生,林龙山,程家骅.东海北部秋季小黄鱼分布特征及其与底层温度和盐度的关系[J].中国水产科学,2009,16(3):348-356.Li J S,Lin L S,Cheng J H.Distribution characteristic of small yellow croaker(Larimichthys polyactis Bleeker)and its relationship with bottom water temperature and salinity in the northern East China Sea in autumn[J].Journal of Fishery Sciences of China,2009,16(3):348-356(in Chinese).
[30]刘笑笑,王晶,徐宾铎,等.捕捞压力和气候变化对黄渤海小黄鱼渔获量的影响[J].中国海洋大学学报2017,47(8):58-64.Liu X X,Wang J,Xu B D,et al.Impacts of fishing pressure and climate change on catches of small yellow croaker in the Yellow Sea and the Bohai Sea[J].Periodi cal of Ocean University of China,2017,47(8):58-64(in Chinese).
[31]Gertseva V V,Thorson J T.Status of the darkblotched rockfish resource off the continental U.S.Pacific Coast in 2013[R].Seattle,Washington:U.S.Department of Commerce,2013.
[32]Perry A L,Low P J,Ellis J R,et al.Climate change and distribution shifts in marine fishes[J].Science,2005,308(5730):1912-1915.
[33]Bell R J,Richardson D E,Hare J A,et al.Disentangling the effects of climate,abundance,and size on the distribution of marine fish:an example based on four stocks from the Northeast US shelf[J].ICES Journal of Marine Science,2015,72(5):1311-1322.
[34]Jerosch K.Geostatistical mapping and spatial variability of surficial sediment types on the Beaufort Shelf based on grain size data[J].Journal of Marine Systems,2013,127:5-13.
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