京津冀区域经济发展与资源环境的脱钩状态及驱动因素
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摘要
经济发展与资源环境脱钩是判断区域可持续发展的重要表征,也是评价资源环境问题是否有效缓解的标准。文章结合MFA方法和Tapio脱钩模型全面分析2007—2016年京津冀资源环境问题的动态发展,进而引用结构分解分析(SDA)深入研究其脱钩发生变化的驱动因素和关键路径,为京津冀有的放矢地制定环境治理政策提供建议。结果表明:京津冀区域在实施京津冀协同发展战略后,节能减排领域均逐步达到强脱钩状态,且产业转移升级对河北省脱钩有明显促进作用。为促进京津冀进一步实现强脱钩,北京需关注化石能源的减量化,津冀需关注建筑矿物的减量化,工业固体废弃物的减排是京津冀共同面临的困境;此外,技术效应对实现脱钩的影响度日益加大,京津冀需要加大技术共享。
The decoupling of economic development from the resource environment is an important indicator in the judgement of the regional sustainable development and a criterion for evaluating whether resources and environmental issues are effectively alleviated. This paper combines the MFA method and the Tapio decoupling model to comprehensively analyze the dynamic development of the resources and environment issues in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region from 2007 to 2016. It explores the driving factors and key paths of the decoupling changes applying the Structural Decomposition Model(SDA), and provides suggestions for Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region to develop environmental governance policies. The results show that after the implementation of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei coordinated strategy, the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region has gradually achieved a strong decoupling state in the field of energy conservation and emission reduction, and the industrial transfer and upgrade have a significant effect on the decoupling of Hebei Province.In order to promote the further decoupling of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region, Beijing needs to pay attention to the reduction of fossil energy. Tianjin-Hebei needs to pay attention to the reduction of building minerals. The reduction of industrial solid waste is a common dilemma in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region. Technology effect has an important influence on decoupling day by day, and the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region needs to increase technology sharing to alleviate the current serious environmental problems.
The decoupling of economic development from the resource environment is an important indicator in the judgement of the regional sustainable development and a criterion for evaluating whether resources and environmental issues are effectively alleviated. This paper combines the MFA method and the Tapio decoupling model to comprehensively analyze the dynamic development of the resources and environment issues in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region from 2007 to 2016. It explores the driving factors and key paths of the decoupling changes applying the Structural Decomposition Model(SDA), and provides suggestions for Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region to develop environmental governance policies. The results show that after the implementation of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei coordinated strategy, the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region has gradually achieved a strong decoupling state in the field of energy conservation and emission reduction, and the industrial transfer and upgrade have a significant effect on the decoupling of Hebei Province.In order to promote the further decoupling of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region, Beijing needs to pay attention to the reduction of fossil energy. Tianjin-Hebei needs to pay attention to the reduction of building minerals. The reduction of industrial solid waste is a common dilemma in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region. Technology effect has an important influence on decoupling day by day, and the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region needs to increase technology sharing to alleviate the current serious environmental problems.
引文
[1]刘亚清,马艺翔,吴振信.京津冀地区产业结构升级对大气污染的影响[J].城市问题,2017(12):65-71.
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[22]夏艳清,李书音.基于物质流分析的区域经济系统环境效率评价[J].资源科学,2017,39(9):1 670-1 681.
[23]顾阿伦,吕志强.经济结构变动对中国碳排放影响--基于IO-SDA方法的分析[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2016,26(3):37-45.
[24]孙艳芝,沈镭,钟帅,等.中国碳排放变化的驱动力效应分析[J].资源科学,2017,39(12):2 265-2 274.
[25]李书音.基于物质流分析的区域经济系统环境效率评价[D].大连:东北财经大学,2016.
[26]李玲,张俊荣,汤铃,等.我国能源强度变动的影响因素分析--基于SDA分解技术[J].中国管理科学,2017(9):125-132.
[2]李艳梅,孙丽云,张红丽,等.京津冀区域间产业转移对能源消费碳排放强度的影响[J].资源科学,2017,39(12):2 275-2 286.
[3]王风云,苏烨琴.京津冀能源消费结构变化及其影响因素[J].城市问题,2018(8):59-67.
[4]杨浩,张灵.京津冀地区产业结构演进及城市化进程对空气质量影响的实证研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2018,28(6):111-119.
[5]王会娟,夏炎.中国居民消费碳排放的影响因素及发展路径分析[J].中国管理科学,2017,25(8):1-10.
[6]Ko?ak E,?arkgüne?i A.The renewable energy and economic growth nexus in black sea and Balkan Countries[J].Energy Pol‐icy,2017,100:51-57.
[7]Palmer G.An input-output based net-energy assessment of an electricity supply industry[J].Energy,2018,141.10.1016/j.en‐ergy.2017.11.072.
[8]Farhani S,Solarin S A.Financial development and energy demand in the United States:New evidence from combined cointe‐gration and asymmetric causality tests[J].Energy,2017,134(C):1 029-1 037.
[9]王开,傅利平.京津冀产业碳排放强度变化及驱动因素研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2017,27(10):115-121.
[10]齐园,张永安.北京三次产业演变与PM2.5排放的动态关系研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2015,25(7):15-23.
[11]张兵兵,沈满洪.工业用水与工业经济增长、产业结构变化的关系[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2015,25(2):9-14.
[12]Climent F,Pardo A.Decoupling factors on the energy-output linkage:The Spanish case[J].Energy Policy,2007,35(1):522-528.
[13]赵正.北京市经济增长与环境压力脱钩分析[J].城市问题,2017(9):48-54.
[14]OECD.Environmental Indicators-Development,Measurement and Use[R].Paris:OECD,2003.
[15]Juknys R,Vencloviene J,Stravinskiene M,et al.Scots pine(Pinus sylvesfris L.)growth and condition in a polluted envi‐ronment:from decline to recovery[J].Environmental Pollu‐tion,2003,125(2):205-212.
[16]Tapio P.Towards a Theory of Decoupling:Degrees of Decoupling in the EU andthe Case of Road Traffic in Finland Between1970 and 2001[J].Transport Policy,2005,12(2):137-151.
[17]刘惠敏.中国经济增长与能源消耗的脱钩--东部地区的时空分异研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2016,26(12):157-163.
[18]Dong B,Zhang M,Mu H,et al.Study on decoupling analysis between energy consumption and economic growth in Liaon‐ing Province[J].Energy Policy,2016,97:414-420.
[19]车亮亮,韩雪,赵良仕,等.中国煤炭利用效率评价及与经济增长脱钩分析[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2015,25(3):104-110.
[20]Zhou X,Zhang M,Zhou M,et al.A comparative study on decoupling relationship and influence factors between China's re‐gional economic development and industrial energy-related carbon emissions[J].Journal of Cleaner Production,2016,142(2):783-800.
[21]凌立文,蔡超敏,余平祥,等.广东省经济增长与工业三废关系研究--基于数量脱钩与速度脱钩的视角[J].中国管理科学,2016(S1):948-954.
[22]夏艳清,李书音.基于物质流分析的区域经济系统环境效率评价[J].资源科学,2017,39(9):1 670-1 681.
[23]顾阿伦,吕志强.经济结构变动对中国碳排放影响--基于IO-SDA方法的分析[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2016,26(3):37-45.
[24]孙艳芝,沈镭,钟帅,等.中国碳排放变化的驱动力效应分析[J].资源科学,2017,39(12):2 265-2 274.
[25]李书音.基于物质流分析的区域经济系统环境效率评价[D].大连:东北财经大学,2016.
[26]李玲,张俊荣,汤铃,等.我国能源强度变动的影响因素分析--基于SDA分解技术[J].中国管理科学,2017(9):125-132.