植被状况区划及预测模型研究
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摘要
基于遥感数据计算植被覆盖度(FVC),以沁水县为例,引入"源-汇"理论及最小累积阻力模型(MCR)评估植被状况并进行区域划分,依据区划结果提出具体管控措施。同时构建像元趋势外推模型,以2016年FVC为参照验证模型精度并对研究区未来植被覆盖度进行预测。结果表明模型预测结果与遥感数据反演结果差异较小,均方根误差(RMSE)0.098,相关系数(R2)0.804,说明像元趋势外推模型在FVC预测方面具有一定的适用性。沁水县2016年后植被状况以稳定和改善为主,在外界干扰因素稳定的情况下将达到稳定状态。研究将植被状况的静态格局、生态过程及动态趋势有机联合起来并制定合理的分区管控措施,为植被的有效保护及区域经济生态的协调发展提供科学参考。
In this study,the source-sink landscape theory and the minimum cumulative resistance(MCR)model were applied to evaluate vegetation status and regional division in Qinshui County on the basis of Landsat Operational Land Imager data acquired in 2016,and targeted partition controls were put forward on the basis of the regionalization results.Then,apixel trend extrapolation model was introduced and applied to simulate status of vegetation in 2016,which was compared with the results created by dimidiate pixel model(DPM).Validations show that there were slight differences between DPM derived results and simulated images.Moreover,the pixel trend extrapolation model could lead to an RMSE(Root Mean Square Error)of 0.098 and an R2 of 0.804 for fractional vegetation coverage(FVC)in 2016.These results suggest that the pixel trend extrapolation model could yield a reasonable result.Additionally,prediction of dynamics of vegetation status indicates that the vegetation status is being stabilized and improved after 2016,and it will reach a stable state when external disturbance factors are stable.This study unites the static patterns,ecological processes,and dynamic trends of FVC and formulates reasonable regional control measures to provide references for the effective protection of vegetation and the coordinated development of regional economic ecology.
In this study,the source-sink landscape theory and the minimum cumulative resistance(MCR)model were applied to evaluate vegetation status and regional division in Qinshui County on the basis of Landsat Operational Land Imager data acquired in 2016,and targeted partition controls were put forward on the basis of the regionalization results.Then,apixel trend extrapolation model was introduced and applied to simulate status of vegetation in 2016,which was compared with the results created by dimidiate pixel model(DPM).Validations show that there were slight differences between DPM derived results and simulated images.Moreover,the pixel trend extrapolation model could lead to an RMSE(Root Mean Square Error)of 0.098 and an R2 of 0.804 for fractional vegetation coverage(FVC)in 2016.These results suggest that the pixel trend extrapolation model could yield a reasonable result.Additionally,prediction of dynamics of vegetation status indicates that the vegetation status is being stabilized and improved after 2016,and it will reach a stable state when external disturbance factors are stable.This study unites the static patterns,ecological processes,and dynamic trends of FVC and formulates reasonable regional control measures to provide references for the effective protection of vegetation and the coordinated development of regional economic ecology.
引文
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[9]朱会利,杨改河,韩磊.延安市退耕过程植被覆盖度变化及其影响因子分析[J].农业机械学报,2015,46(8):272-280.ZHU H L,YANG G H,HAN L.Analysis of fractional vegetation coverage changes and its influence factors during farmland returned to forest period in Yan'an city[J].Transactions of the Chinese Society for Agricultural Machinery,2015,46(8):272-280.
[10]胡春艳,卫伟,王晓峰,等.甘肃省植被覆盖变化及其对退耕还林工程的响应[J].生态与农村环境学报,2016,32(4):588-594.HU C Y,WEI W,WANG X F,et al.Change in vegetation cover as affected by grain for green project in Gansu[J].Journal of Ecology and Rural Environment,2016,32(4):588-594.
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[12]程先富,张方方,邓良,等.安徽省霍山县植被覆盖度动态变化及预测[J].水土保持通报,2014(4):104-109.CHENG X F,ZHANG F F,DENG L,et al.Dynamic change and prediction of vegetation coverage in Huoshan County of Anhui province[J].Bulletin of Soil and Water Conservation,2014(4):104-109.
[13]何宝忠,丁建丽,张喆,等.新疆植被覆盖度趋势演变实验性分析[J].地理学报,2016,71(11):1948-1966.HE B Z,DING J L,ZHANG Z,et al.Experimental analysis of spatial and temporal dynamics of fractional vegetation cover in Xinjiang[J].Acta Geographica Sinica,2016,71(11):1948-1966.
[14] JIMNEZ-MUOZ J C,SOBRINO J A,PLAZA A,et al.Comparison between fractional vegetation cover retrievals from vegetation indices and spectral mixture analysis:case study of PROBA/CHRIS data over an agricultural area[J].Sensors,2009,9(2):768-793.
[15]陈利顶,傅伯杰,赵文武.“源”“汇”景观理论及其生态学意义[J].生态学报,2006(5):1444-1449.CHEN L D,FU B J,ZHAO W W.Source-sink landscape theory and its ecological significance[J].Acta Ecologica Sinica,2006(5):1444-1449.
[16]张云路,李雄,田野.基于景观生态学“源-汇”理论的市域尺度生态功能分区——以内蒙古通辽市为例[J].生态学报,2018,38(1):65-72.ZHANG Y L,LI X,TIAN Y.Study on ecological function zoning in the municipal administrative area based on the landscape ecology source-ink theory:a case study of Tongliao,Inner Mongolia[J].Acta Ecologica Sinica,2018,38(1):65-72.
[17]陶菊春.趋势外推预测模型的识别与选择研究[J].西北师范大学学报(自然科学版),2005,41(6):20-23.TAO J C.Study on identification and choice of the trend extend forecast model[J].Journal of Northwest Normal University(Natural Science),2005,41(6):20-23.
[2] GITELSON A A,KAUFMAN Y J,STARK R,et al.Novel algorithms for remote estimation of vegetation fraction[J].Remote Sensing of Environment,2002,80(1):76-87.
[3]郭敏杰,张亭亭,张建军,等.1982—2006年黄土高原地区植被覆盖度对气候变化的响应[J].水土保持研究,2014(5):35-40.GUO M J,ZHANG T T,ZHANG J J,et al.Response of vegetation coverage to climate change in the loess plateau in 1982-2006[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2014(5):35-40.
[4]王伟军,赵雪雁,万文玉,等.2000—2014年甘南高原植被覆盖度变化及其对气候变化的响应[J].生态学杂志,2016,35(9):2494-2504.WANG W J,ZHAO X Y,WAN W Y,et al.Variation of vegetation coverage and its response to climate change in Gannan Plateau[J].Chinese Journal of Ecology,2016,35(9):2494-2504.
[5]赵艳华,苏德,包扬,等.阴山北麓草原生态功能区植被覆盖度遥感动态监测[J].环境科学研究,2017,30(2):240-248.ZHAO Y H,SU D,BAO Y,et al.Dynamic monitoring of fractional vegetation cover of eco-function area of grassland on northern foot of Yinshan mountains through remote sensing technology[J].Research of Environmental Sciences,2017,30(2):240-248.
[6]吴喜芳,李改欣,潘学鹏,等.黄河源区植被覆盖度对气温和降水的响应研究[J].资源科学,2015(3):512-521.WU X F,LI G X,PAN X P,et al.Response of vegetation cover to temperature and precipitation in the source region of the Yellow River[J].Resources Science,2015(3):512-521.
[7] TUCKER C J,SLAYBACK D A,PINZON J E,et al.Higher northern latitude normalized difference vegetation index and growing season trends from 1982to 1999[J].International Journal of Biometeorology,2001,45(4):184-190.
[8]田海静,曹春香,戴晟懋,等.准格尔旗植被覆盖度变化的时间序列遥感监测[J].地球信息科学学报,2014(1):126-133.TIAN H J,CAO C X,DAI S M,et al.Analysis of vegetation fractional cover in Jungar Banner based on time-series remote sensing data[J].Journal of Geo-information Science,2014(1):126-133.
[9]朱会利,杨改河,韩磊.延安市退耕过程植被覆盖度变化及其影响因子分析[J].农业机械学报,2015,46(8):272-280.ZHU H L,YANG G H,HAN L.Analysis of fractional vegetation coverage changes and its influence factors during farmland returned to forest period in Yan'an city[J].Transactions of the Chinese Society for Agricultural Machinery,2015,46(8):272-280.
[10]胡春艳,卫伟,王晓峰,等.甘肃省植被覆盖变化及其对退耕还林工程的响应[J].生态与农村环境学报,2016,32(4):588-594.HU C Y,WEI W,WANG X F,et al.Change in vegetation cover as affected by grain for green project in Gansu[J].Journal of Ecology and Rural Environment,2016,32(4):588-594.
[11]王智,常顺利,师庆东,等.基于FVC指数的中国西北干旱区植被覆盖变化Markov过程[J].应用生态学报,2010(5):1129-1136.WANG Z,CHANG S L,SHI Q D,et al.Markov process of vegetation cover change in arid area of northwest China based on FVC index[J].Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology,2010(5):1129-1136.
[12]程先富,张方方,邓良,等.安徽省霍山县植被覆盖度动态变化及预测[J].水土保持通报,2014(4):104-109.CHENG X F,ZHANG F F,DENG L,et al.Dynamic change and prediction of vegetation coverage in Huoshan County of Anhui province[J].Bulletin of Soil and Water Conservation,2014(4):104-109.
[13]何宝忠,丁建丽,张喆,等.新疆植被覆盖度趋势演变实验性分析[J].地理学报,2016,71(11):1948-1966.HE B Z,DING J L,ZHANG Z,et al.Experimental analysis of spatial and temporal dynamics of fractional vegetation cover in Xinjiang[J].Acta Geographica Sinica,2016,71(11):1948-1966.
[14] JIMNEZ-MUOZ J C,SOBRINO J A,PLAZA A,et al.Comparison between fractional vegetation cover retrievals from vegetation indices and spectral mixture analysis:case study of PROBA/CHRIS data over an agricultural area[J].Sensors,2009,9(2):768-793.
[15]陈利顶,傅伯杰,赵文武.“源”“汇”景观理论及其生态学意义[J].生态学报,2006(5):1444-1449.CHEN L D,FU B J,ZHAO W W.Source-sink landscape theory and its ecological significance[J].Acta Ecologica Sinica,2006(5):1444-1449.
[16]张云路,李雄,田野.基于景观生态学“源-汇”理论的市域尺度生态功能分区——以内蒙古通辽市为例[J].生态学报,2018,38(1):65-72.ZHANG Y L,LI X,TIAN Y.Study on ecological function zoning in the municipal administrative area based on the landscape ecology source-ink theory:a case study of Tongliao,Inner Mongolia[J].Acta Ecologica Sinica,2018,38(1):65-72.
[17]陶菊春.趋势外推预测模型的识别与选择研究[J].西北师范大学学报(自然科学版),2005,41(6):20-23.TAO J C.Study on identification and choice of the trend extend forecast model[J].Journal of Northwest Normal University(Natural Science),2005,41(6):20-23.