基于梯形模糊贝叶斯网的施工安全性分析方法
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摘要
文章针对传统的建筑施工安全性分析方法存在的不足,提出了一种基于梯形模糊贝叶斯网络(Bayesian network,BN)的安全性分析方法。该方法将广义区间梯形模糊数理论引入贝叶斯网络安全性分析中,避免了安全性影响因素多状态的精确概率难以获得的状况,用广义区间梯形模糊数描述专家的模糊语言值,通过解模糊化、均值化和归一化得到不同状态发生概率的精确值。将其代入贝叶斯网络中,计算叶节点不同状态的发生概率,进而计算各根节点的后验概率及安全性重要度。该方法应用到建筑施工的安全性分析实例中,实验结果表明能提高贝叶斯网络处理不确定性安全问题的准确性和应用范围。
For the insufficiencies of traditional building construction safety analysis methods,a safety analysis method based on Bayesian network(BN)using trapezoidal fuzzy theory is proposed.This method introduces generalized interval-valued trapezoidal fuzzy number theory to BN safety analysis,avoiding the situation that exact probability is difficult to obtain because of multi-state in factors influencing safety.The generalized interval-valued trapezoidal fuzzy numbers are used to describe expert fuzzy linguistic evaluation opinion,and the precision value of the probability of different state can be obtained by means of equalization,ambiguity resolution and normalization.Next,the precision value is taken into BN,the probability of leaf nodes in different state is calculated,and then the posterior probability of each root node and the importance degree of safety are calculated.The method is applied to the instance analysis of construction safety,and the result of the experiment shows that the method can improve the accuracy of BN in handling the uncertain safety issues and extend the application range.
For the insufficiencies of traditional building construction safety analysis methods,a safety analysis method based on Bayesian network(BN)using trapezoidal fuzzy theory is proposed.This method introduces generalized interval-valued trapezoidal fuzzy number theory to BN safety analysis,avoiding the situation that exact probability is difficult to obtain because of multi-state in factors influencing safety.The generalized interval-valued trapezoidal fuzzy numbers are used to describe expert fuzzy linguistic evaluation opinion,and the precision value of the probability of different state can be obtained by means of equalization,ambiguity resolution and normalization.Next,the precision value is taken into BN,the probability of leaf nodes in different state is calculated,and then the posterior probability of each root node and the importance degree of safety are calculated.The method is applied to the instance analysis of construction safety,and the result of the experiment shows that the method can improve the accuracy of BN in handling the uncertain safety issues and extend the application range.
引文
[1]高兴举.地方政府生产安全事故管理研究[D].济南:山东大学,2013.
[2]贺耀荣.基于BP网络的建筑安装施工现场安全评价系统的研究[D].北京:北京科技大学,2005.
[3]GRASS A,GAMBERINI R,MORA C,et al.A fuzzy multiattribute model for risk evaluation in workplaces[J].Safety Science,2009,47(5):707-716.
[4]龚波涛.模糊数学理论在安全评价工作中的运用[J].电力安全技术,2000(4):10-12.
[5]SHAPIRA A,SINCHA M.AHP-based weighting of factors affecting safety on construction sites with tower cranes[J].Journal of Construction Engineering and Management,2009,135(4):307-318.
[6]卞肖锋.基于FTA和AHP方法的在某超高层建筑施工坠落事故的应用研究[D].大连:大连理工大学,2013.
[7]HALLOWELL M R.Construction safety risk mitigation[J].Journal of Construction Engineering and Management,2009,135(12):1316-1323.
[8]陈东宁,姚成玉.基于模糊贝叶斯网络的多态系统可靠性分析及在液压系统中的应用[J].机械工程学报,2012,48(16):175-183.
[9]戚国全,王浩.基于影响力传动的Kuramoto股市预测模型[J].合肥工业大学学报(自然科学版),2016,39(6):761-766.
[10]翟胜,师五喜,修春波.基于模糊贝叶斯网的危害性分析方法[J].计算机应用,2014,34(12):3446-3450,3480.
[11]MARTIN J E RIVAS T,MATIAS T M,et al.A bayesian network analysis of workplace accidents caused by falls from a height[J].Safety Science,2009,47(2):206-214.
[12]汪涛,廖彬超,马昕,等.基于贝叶斯网络的施工安全风险概率评估的方法[J].土木工程学报,2010,43(增刊1):384-391.
[13]赵延龙.基于贝叶斯网络的大跨径斜拉桥上部结构施工安全风险分析与控制[D].重庆:重庆交通大学,2013.
[14]马德仲,周真,于晓洋,等.基于模糊概率的多状态贝叶斯网络可靠性分析[J].系统工程与电子技术,2012,34(12):2607-2611.
[15]李如中,董芳,周爱佳,等.基于梯形模糊数的地标灰尘重金属污染健康风险评价模型[J].环境科学学报,2011,31(8):1790-1798.
[16]HANSS M.The transformation method for the simulation and analysis of systems with uncertain parameters[J].Fuzzy Sets and Systems,2002,130(3):277-289.
[17]赵业晗,李兴国,杨颖.基于语义不确定性PROMETHEE的研发项目评价[J].合肥工业大学学报(自然科学版),2015,38(12),1699-1705.
[18]CHEN S H,HSIEH C H.Ranking generalized fuzzy number with graded mean integration representation[C]//The8th International Fuzzy Systems Association World Congress.[S.l.:s.n.],1999:199908.
[19]WEI S H,CHEN S M.Fuzzy risk analysis based on interval-valued fuzzy numbers[J].Expert Systems with Applications,2009,36(2):2285-2301.
[20]ZHANG W R.Knowledge representation using linguistic fuzzy relations[D].Columbia:University of South Carolina,1986.
[21]钟映竑,张培新.广义梯形模糊数决策粗糙集[J].数学的实践与认识,2015,45(6):82-88.
[2]贺耀荣.基于BP网络的建筑安装施工现场安全评价系统的研究[D].北京:北京科技大学,2005.
[3]GRASS A,GAMBERINI R,MORA C,et al.A fuzzy multiattribute model for risk evaluation in workplaces[J].Safety Science,2009,47(5):707-716.
[4]龚波涛.模糊数学理论在安全评价工作中的运用[J].电力安全技术,2000(4):10-12.
[5]SHAPIRA A,SINCHA M.AHP-based weighting of factors affecting safety on construction sites with tower cranes[J].Journal of Construction Engineering and Management,2009,135(4):307-318.
[6]卞肖锋.基于FTA和AHP方法的在某超高层建筑施工坠落事故的应用研究[D].大连:大连理工大学,2013.
[7]HALLOWELL M R.Construction safety risk mitigation[J].Journal of Construction Engineering and Management,2009,135(12):1316-1323.
[8]陈东宁,姚成玉.基于模糊贝叶斯网络的多态系统可靠性分析及在液压系统中的应用[J].机械工程学报,2012,48(16):175-183.
[9]戚国全,王浩.基于影响力传动的Kuramoto股市预测模型[J].合肥工业大学学报(自然科学版),2016,39(6):761-766.
[10]翟胜,师五喜,修春波.基于模糊贝叶斯网的危害性分析方法[J].计算机应用,2014,34(12):3446-3450,3480.
[11]MARTIN J E RIVAS T,MATIAS T M,et al.A bayesian network analysis of workplace accidents caused by falls from a height[J].Safety Science,2009,47(2):206-214.
[12]汪涛,廖彬超,马昕,等.基于贝叶斯网络的施工安全风险概率评估的方法[J].土木工程学报,2010,43(增刊1):384-391.
[13]赵延龙.基于贝叶斯网络的大跨径斜拉桥上部结构施工安全风险分析与控制[D].重庆:重庆交通大学,2013.
[14]马德仲,周真,于晓洋,等.基于模糊概率的多状态贝叶斯网络可靠性分析[J].系统工程与电子技术,2012,34(12):2607-2611.
[15]李如中,董芳,周爱佳,等.基于梯形模糊数的地标灰尘重金属污染健康风险评价模型[J].环境科学学报,2011,31(8):1790-1798.
[16]HANSS M.The transformation method for the simulation and analysis of systems with uncertain parameters[J].Fuzzy Sets and Systems,2002,130(3):277-289.
[17]赵业晗,李兴国,杨颖.基于语义不确定性PROMETHEE的研发项目评价[J].合肥工业大学学报(自然科学版),2015,38(12),1699-1705.
[18]CHEN S H,HSIEH C H.Ranking generalized fuzzy number with graded mean integration representation[C]//The8th International Fuzzy Systems Association World Congress.[S.l.:s.n.],1999:199908.
[19]WEI S H,CHEN S M.Fuzzy risk analysis based on interval-valued fuzzy numbers[J].Expert Systems with Applications,2009,36(2):2285-2301.
[20]ZHANG W R.Knowledge representation using linguistic fuzzy relations[D].Columbia:University of South Carolina,1986.
[21]钟映竑,张培新.广义梯形模糊数决策粗糙集[J].数学的实践与认识,2015,45(6):82-88.
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