改革开放以来科技创新、城镇化与碳排放
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摘要
本文从理论分析出发,梳理了改革开放以来科技创新、城镇化与碳排放三者之间的影响机理,并基于2005—2015年省际数据构建了面板门槛回归模型,实证分析了科技创新环境下城镇化水平对碳排放效应的阶段性差异。研究表明,城镇化对碳排放的影响具有双重门槛效应,当城镇化水平较低时,提高城镇化水平有利于实现低碳发展,而科技创新的发展也有利于抑制碳排放效应;但当城镇化水平越过第二个门槛值对应的水平时,城镇化水平的提高将促进碳排放效应。以上研究为中国坚持走生产发展、生活富裕、生态良好的文明发展道路提供了政策启示。
On the basis of the theoretical analysis,this paper reviews the relationship among S&T innovation,urbanization and carbon emission since the reform and opening up,and builds a panel threshold regressive model by using inter-provincial data from 2005 to2015 to empirically analyze the stage effect of urbanization on carbon emission in the context of technological innovation. The research shows that the impact of urbanization on carbon emissions has a Double threshold effect. When the urbanization level is low,raising the urbanization level is conducive to achieving low-carbon development,and the development of science and technology innovation will help to curb the carbon emission effect. However,when the urbanization level crosses the threshold corresponding to the second threshold,the improvement of urbanization level will raise the level of carbon emission in China. Based on the above findings,this paper provides some policy enlightenments for China to stick to the path of civilized development with production and development,affluent life and good ecology.
On the basis of the theoretical analysis,this paper reviews the relationship among S&T innovation,urbanization and carbon emission since the reform and opening up,and builds a panel threshold regressive model by using inter-provincial data from 2005 to2015 to empirically analyze the stage effect of urbanization on carbon emission in the context of technological innovation. The research shows that the impact of urbanization on carbon emissions has a Double threshold effect. When the urbanization level is low,raising the urbanization level is conducive to achieving low-carbon development,and the development of science and technology innovation will help to curb the carbon emission effect. However,when the urbanization level crosses the threshold corresponding to the second threshold,the improvement of urbanization level will raise the level of carbon emission in China. Based on the above findings,this paper provides some policy enlightenments for China to stick to the path of civilized development with production and development,affluent life and good ecology.
引文
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[15]张志雯,王子龙.碳约束下技术创新对能源效率影响的空间计量分析[J].中国科技论坛,2017(4):164-171.
[16]顾高翔,王铮. INDC背景下研发投资驱动的碳减排研究[J].中国科技论坛,2017(5):158-165.
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[20]张玉喜,赵丽丽.中国科技金融投入对科技创新的作用效果———基于静态和动态面板数据模型的实证研究[J].科学学研究,2015,33(2):177-184,214.
[21]陆铭,冯皓.集聚与减排:城市规模差距影响工业污染强度的经验研究[J].世界经济,2014,37(7):86-114.
[2]GALEOTT M,LANZA A. Richer and cleaner? A study on carbon dioxide emissions in developing countries[J].Energy policy,1999,27(10):565-573.
[3]YAO C,FENG K,HUBACEK K. Driving forces of CO2emissions in the G20 countries:an index decomposition analysis from 1971 to2010[J].Ecological informatics,2015,26:93-100.
[4]MARTINEZ-ZARZOSO I,MARUOTTI A. The impact of urbanization on CO2emissions:evidence from developing countries[J].Ecological economics,2011,70(7):1344-1353.
[5]WANG Y,ZHANG X,KUBOTA J,et al. A semi-parametric panel data analysis on the urbanization-carbon emissions nexus for OECD countries[J].Renewable and sustainable energy reviews,2015,48:704-709.
[6]聂飞,刘海云.基于城镇化门槛模型的中国OFDI的碳排放效应研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2016,26(9):123-131.
[7]ZHANG C,LIN Y. Panel estimation for urbanization,energy consumption and CO2emissions:a regional analysis in China[J].Energy policy,2012,49:488-498.
[8]ZHANG Y J,LIU Z,ZHANG H,et al. The impact of economic growth,industrial structure and urbanization on carbon emission intensity in China[J].Natural hazards,2014,73(2):579-595.
[9]WU Y,SHEN J,ZHANG X,et al. The impact of urbanization on carbon emissions in developing countries:a Chinese study based on the U-Kaya method[J].Journal of cleaner production,2016,135:589-603.
[10]SHENG P,GUO X. The long-run and short-run impacts of urbanization on carbon dioxide emissions[J]. Economic modelling,2016,53:208-215.
[11]STORPER M. The regional world:territorial development in a global economy[M].New York:The Guilford Press,1997.
[12]FUJITA M,KRUGMAN P R,VENABLES A J,et al. The spatial economy:cities,regions and international trade[M].Cambridge,MA:MIT press,1999.
[13]关海玲,陈建成,曹文.碳排放与城市化关系的实证[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2013,23(4):111-116.
[14]张兵兵,徐康宁,陈庭强.技术进步对二氧化碳排放强度的影响研究[J].资源科学,2014,36(3):567-576.
[15]张志雯,王子龙.碳约束下技术创新对能源效率影响的空间计量分析[J].中国科技论坛,2017(4):164-171.
[16]顾高翔,王铮. INDC背景下研发投资驱动的碳减排研究[J].中国科技论坛,2017(5):158-165.
[17]PEARCE D W,TURNER R K. Economics of natural resources and the environment[M].Baltimore:JHU Press,1990.
[18]HANSEN B E. Threshold effects in non-dynamic panels:estimation,testing,and inference[J].Journal of econometrics,1999,93(2):345-368.
[19]鲁万波,仇婷婷,杜磊.中国不同经济增长阶段碳排放影响因素研究[J].经济研究,2013,48(4):106-118.
[20]张玉喜,赵丽丽.中国科技金融投入对科技创新的作用效果———基于静态和动态面板数据模型的实证研究[J].科学学研究,2015,33(2):177-184,214.
[21]陆铭,冯皓.集聚与减排:城市规模差距影响工业污染强度的经验研究[J].世界经济,2014,37(7):86-114.