基于改进AHP法与模糊可变集理论的煤层底板突水危险性评价
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摘要
针对平顶山十三矿煤层底板突水灾害控制因素的模糊性,选取水文地质、地质构造、煤层开采条件作为评价矿区煤层底板突水的指标体系。利用分形理论对地质构造进行量化,应用改进层次分析法计算指标权重,基于模糊可变集理论对煤层底板突水危险进行识别。研究表明:十三矿构造复杂类型占42.6%,分形维数均值为1.36。己一、己二采区底板突水特征值均低于3.0,属于无突水危险区,与实际情况吻合;己三采区突水特征值在3.5～4.5之间,属于突水高危险区;己四采区突水特征值在2.5～3.5之间,属于中等突水危险区。可见,本文通过融合改进层次分析法与模糊可变集理论,使得矿井底板突水危险的评估结果准确性得到有效提高,从而为矿井底板突水危险性可靠评价提供新的理论支持。
In view of the ambiguity of the controlling factors of coal seam water bursting in Pingdingshan mine No.13, hydrogeology exploration, geological structure and coal mining conditions have been selected as the index system for evaluating water bursting from coal floor in the mining area. The fractal theory is used to quantify the geological structure; the improved analytic hierarchy process is used to calculate the index weight, and the fuzzy variable set theory is used to identify the water inrush danger of the coal floor. The research has shown that the complex type of geological structure accounts for 42.6% in mine No.13, and the average fractal dimension is 1.36. The water bursting characteristic value is found to be less than 3.0 in Ji-1 and Ji-2 mining area, showing no risk of water bursting, which is consistent with the actual situation; the characteristic value of Ji-3 mining area is between 3.5-4.5, in the category of high risk of water bursting; the characteristic value of Ji-4 mining area is between2.5-3.5, classified as medium risk of water inrush. It can be seen that the fusion of improved analytic hierarchy process and fuzzy variable set theory makes the accuracy of the evaluation result of water bursting risk in mine floor effectively improved, which provides new theoretical support for the reliable evaluation of mine floor water bursting.
In view of the ambiguity of the controlling factors of coal seam water bursting in Pingdingshan mine No.13, hydrogeology exploration, geological structure and coal mining conditions have been selected as the index system for evaluating water bursting from coal floor in the mining area. The fractal theory is used to quantify the geological structure; the improved analytic hierarchy process is used to calculate the index weight, and the fuzzy variable set theory is used to identify the water inrush danger of the coal floor. The research has shown that the complex type of geological structure accounts for 42.6% in mine No.13, and the average fractal dimension is 1.36. The water bursting characteristic value is found to be less than 3.0 in Ji-1 and Ji-2 mining area, showing no risk of water bursting, which is consistent with the actual situation; the characteristic value of Ji-3 mining area is between 3.5-4.5, in the category of high risk of water bursting; the characteristic value of Ji-4 mining area is between2.5-3.5, classified as medium risk of water inrush. It can be seen that the fusion of improved analytic hierarchy process and fuzzy variable set theory makes the accuracy of the evaluation result of water bursting risk in mine floor effectively improved, which provides new theoretical support for the reliable evaluation of mine floor water bursting.
引文
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[20]陈守煜.工程可变模糊集理论与模型:模糊水文水资源学数学基础[J].大连理工大学学报,2005,45(2):308-312.CHEN Shouyu.Theory and model of engineering variable fuzzy set:mathematical basis for fuzzy hydrology and water resources[J].Journal of Dalian University of Technology,2005,45(2):308-312.
[21]WANG Yi,YANG Weifeng,LI Ming,et al.Risk assessment of floor water inrush in coal mines based on secondary fuzzy comprehensive evaluation[J].International Journal of Rock Mechanics&Mining Sciences,2012,52(6):50-55.
[2]李建林,张洪云,王心义,等.脆弱性指数法在煤层底板突水预测中的应用与建议[J].煤炭学报,2014,39(4):725-730.LI Jianlin,ZHANG Hongyun,WANG Xinyi,et al.Application and suggestion on vulnerable index method of coalseam floor water burst evaluation[J].Journal of China Coal Society,2014,39(4):725-730.
[3]WU Qiang,LIU Yuanzhang,LIU Donghai,et al.Prediction of floor water inrush:the application of gis-based AHP vulnerable index method to Donghuantuo coal mine,China[J].Rock Mechanics and Rock Engineering,2011,44(5):591-600.
[4]武强,张志龙,张生元,等.煤层底板突水评价的新型实用方法Ⅱ:脆弱性指数法[J].煤炭学报,2007,32(11):1121-1126.WU Qiang,ZHANG Zhilong,ZHANG Shengyuan,et al.A new practical methodology of the coal floor water bursting evaluating II:the vulnerable index method[J].Journal of China Coal Society,2007,32(11):1121-1126.
[5]朱长军,郝振纯,周继红,等.组合灰色神经网络法在地下水动态预测中应用[J].辽宁工程技术大学学报,2005,24(增刊2):260-262.ZHU Changjun,HAO Zhenchun,ZHOU Jihong,et al.Application of combined gray neural network method in dynamic prediction of groundwater level[J].Journal of Liaoning Technical University,2005,24(Sup 2):260-262.
[6]李相虎,贾新颜,黄天明.干旱区水环境质量评价的模糊数学法:以石羊河流域武威市为例[J].干旱区资源与环境,2004(增刊2):163-167.LI Xianghu,JIA Xinyan,HUANG Tianming.Fuzzy mathematics method for water environmental quality assessment in arid area:taking the Wuwei city as an example in Shiyang river[J].Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment,2004(Sup 2):163-167.
[7]苏耀明,苏小四,侯光才,等.基于GIS的鄂尔多斯白垩系盆地地下水水质的模糊综合评价[J].地质通报,2008,27(8):1178-1185.SU Yaoming,SU Xiaosi,HOU Guangcai,et al.Fuzzy integrated evaluation of groundwater quality in the Cretaceous Ordos artisan basin,China based on GIS[J].Geological Bulletin of China,2008,27(8):1178-1185.
[8]冯德益,林命周,顾瑾平,等.模糊集理论与灰色系统理论在地震预报中的综合应用[J].地震学报,1992(3):257-264.FENG Deyi,LIN Mingzhou,GU Jinping,et al.Comprehensive application of fuzzy set theory and grey system theory in earthquake prediction[J].Acta Seismologica Sinica,1992(3):257-264.
[9]武强,张志龙,马积福.煤层底板突水评价的新型实用方法Ⅰ:主控指标体系的建设[J].煤炭学报,2007,32(1):42-47.WU Qiang,ZHANG Zhilong,MA Jifu.A new practical methodology of the coal floor water bursting evaluating I:the master controlling index system construction[J].Journal of China Coal Society,2007,32(1):42-47.
[10]SUN Wenjie,ZHOU Wanfang,JIAO Jian.Hydrogeological classification and water inrush accidents in China’s coal mines[J].Mine Water&the Environment,2016,35(2):214-220.
[11]WU Qiang,LI Bo,CHEN Yulong.Vulnerability assessment of groundwater inrush from underlying aquifers based on variable weight model and its application[J].Water Resources Management,2016,30(10):3331-3345.
[12]魏大勇,王飞,许进鹏,等.基于分形与模糊综合评价法的矿井突水危险性评价[J].煤矿安全,2013,44(8):184-186.WEI Dayong,WANG Fei,XU Jinpeng,et al.Risk evaluation of mine water inrush based on the fractal and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method[J].Safety in Coal Mines,2013,44(8):184-186.
[13]LI Xueping,LI Yunan,ZHOU Shunping.Study and application of forecasting system for water inrush under high pressure in Xiamen submarine tunnel construction based on GIS[J].Chinese Journal of Underground Space&Engineering,2012,10(1):999-1005.
[14]施龙青,谭希鹏,王娟,等.基于PCA_Fuzzy_PSO_SVC的底板突水危险性评价[J].煤炭学报,2015,40(1):167-171.SHI Longqing,TAN Xipeng,WANG Juan,et al.Risk assessment of water inrush based on PCA_Fuzzy_PSO_SVC[J].Journal of China Coal Society,2015,40(1):167-171.
[15]LI L P,ZHOU Z Q,LI S C,et al.An attribute synthetic evaluation system for risk assessment of floor water inrush in coal mines[J].Mine Water&the Environment,2015,34(3):288-294.
[16]WANG Qi,WANG Xinyi,LIU Xiaoman,et al.Prevention of groundwater disasters in coal seam floors based on TEM of Cambrian limestone[J].Mine Water and the Environment,2018,37(2):300-311.
[17]LI Renzheng,WANG Qi,WANG Xinyi,et al.Relationship analysis of the degree of fault complexity and the water irruption rate,based on fractal theory[J].Mine Water&the Environment,2017,36(1):1-6.
[18]WANG Xinyi,JI Hongying,WANG Qi,et al.Divisions based on groundwater chemical characteristics and discrimination of water inrush sources in the Pingdingshan coalfield[J].Environmental Earth Sciences,2016,75(10):872.
[19]王心义,赵伟,刘小满,等.基于熵权-模糊可变集理论的煤矿井突水水源识别[J].煤炭学报,2017,42(9):2433-2439.WANG Xinyi,ZHAO Wei,LIU Xiaoman,et al.Identification of water inrush source from coalfield based on entropy weight-fuzzy variable set theory[J].Journal of China Coal Society,2017,42(9):2433-2439.
[20]陈守煜.工程可变模糊集理论与模型:模糊水文水资源学数学基础[J].大连理工大学学报,2005,45(2):308-312.CHEN Shouyu.Theory and model of engineering variable fuzzy set:mathematical basis for fuzzy hydrology and water resources[J].Journal of Dalian University of Technology,2005,45(2):308-312.
[21]WANG Yi,YANG Weifeng,LI Ming,et al.Risk assessment of floor water inrush in coal mines based on secondary fuzzy comprehensive evaluation[J].International Journal of Rock Mechanics&Mining Sciences,2012,52(6):50-55.