4种干旱指标在华北地区气象干旱监测中的适用性分析
|
摘要
采用华北地区1961—2016年69个气象站点常规观测资料,通过选取特殊气象代表站点,选用CI、SPEI、SPI及Z指数分别计算了1、3、12个月时间尺度气象干旱,并与气象干旱发生实况进行对比分析。结果表明:(1) CI计算的华北地区不同区域各时间尺度气象干旱发生频率均较实际明显偏高7%～14%,Z指数计算的发生频率均较实际明显偏低6%～12%,SPI计算的部分区域季时间尺度气象干旱发生频率也明显偏低6%左右;(2)根据华北地区9个代表气象站点计算出的4种干旱指标对比干旱发生实况统计数据,结果显示在4个研究分区中,SPEI指数表征的干旱发生状况与实际吻合率最高,分别为57.41%、60.78%、57.06%和66.99%,与实际干旱发生状况吻合程度最低的是Z指数,4个研究分区的吻合率分别为40.85%、34.94%、41.56%和38.24%。研究表明,SPEI表征各种时间尺度气象干旱发生效果最好,Z指数效果最差。因此,选用SPEI能较准确地表征华北地区气象干旱年际变化及突变检测、时间分布、空间分布、干旱发生强度、不同等级干旱分布等特征。
We used meteorological data from representative stations selected from 69 meteorological stations in Northern China to study meteorological drought in a timeframe of 1,3,and 12 months using CI、SPEI、SPI and Z indexes. The consistency of the existing drought and calculated indexes were also compared. The results showed that:( 1) The drought frequency calculated using the CI was 7% ～ 14% higher than the actual events while the Z in certain areas for different seasons were 6% ～ 12% lower and SPI for seasonal scale was 6% lower;( 2) The best correlation between the four drought indices and actual statistics was SPEI,which expressed 57. 41%,60. 78%,57.06%,and 66.99% of all 4 indexes. The least correlations were with Z,which described 40. 85%,34. 94%,41.56%,and 38.24% of the 4 indexes in the four regions. Therefore,SPEI was most suitable for drought monitoring,mutation detection,drought intensity,levels of spatial and temporal distribution in Northern China.
We used meteorological data from representative stations selected from 69 meteorological stations in Northern China to study meteorological drought in a timeframe of 1,3,and 12 months using CI、SPEI、SPI and Z indexes. The consistency of the existing drought and calculated indexes were also compared. The results showed that:( 1) The drought frequency calculated using the CI was 7% ～ 14% higher than the actual events while the Z in certain areas for different seasons were 6% ～ 12% lower and SPI for seasonal scale was 6% lower;( 2) The best correlation between the four drought indices and actual statistics was SPEI,which expressed 57. 41%,60. 78%,57.06%,and 66.99% of all 4 indexes. The least correlations were with Z,which described 40. 85%,34. 94%,41.56%,and 38.24% of the 4 indexes in the four regions. Therefore,SPEI was most suitable for drought monitoring,mutation detection,drought intensity,levels of spatial and temporal distribution in Northern China.
引文
[1] Com E C. Communication from the commission to the council andthe European parliament“addressing the challenge of water scarcityand droughts in the European Union”[R]. Brussels:IPPC WGIIFourth Assessment Report,2007.
[2]张强,李耀辉,王强,等.中国干旱气象科学试验计划[C]∥第29届中国气象学会年会—强化科技基础推进气象现代化.沈阳:中国气象学会,2012:109-110.
[3]谭方颖,王建林,宋迎波.华北平原气候变暖对气象灾害发生趋势的影响[J].自然灾害学报,2010,19(5):125-131.
[4] Chen Z H,Yang G F. Analysis of drought hazard in north China:distribution and interpretation[J]. Natural Hazards,2013,65(1):279-294.
[5]钱永,张兆吉,费宇红,等.华北平原浅层地下水可持续利用潜力分析[J].中国生态农业学报,2014,22(8):890-897.
[6]朱菊艳,郭海朋,李文鹏,等.华北平原地面沉降与深层地下水开采关系[J].南水北调与水利科技,2014,12(3):165-169.
[7] Richard R,Heim J R. A review of twentieth-century drought indi-ces used in the United State[J]. Bulletin of the America Meteoro-logical Society,2002,83(8):1149-1165.
[8]施晔,梁忠民,易知之.区域综合干旱随机评价模型及其应用[J].水电能源科学,2011,29(9):1-3.
[9]王胜,田红,张存杰,等.安徽冬麦区4种干旱指数应用对比[J].气象科技,2015,43(2):295-301.
[10]潘妮,卫仁娟,詹存,等.干旱指数在四川省的适用性分析[J].南水北调与水利科技,2017,15(4):71-78.
[11]乔丽,杜继稳,薛春芳,等.干旱指标在陕西省适用性研究[J].干旱地区农业研究,2010,28(2):1-6.
[12]丁一汇.中国气象灾害大典(综合卷)[M].北京:气象出版社,2008.
[13]谢璞.中国气象灾害大典(北京卷)[M].北京:气象出版社,2005.
[14]王宗信.中国气象灾害大典(天津卷)[M].北京:气象出版社,2008.
[15]刘庆桐.中国气象灾害大典(山西卷)[M].北京:气象出版社,2006.
[16]臧建升.中国气象灾害大典(河北卷)[M].北京:气象出版社,2008.
[17]王建国,孙典卿.中国气象灾害大典(山东卷)[M].北京:气象出版社,2006.
[18]庞天荷.中国气象灾害大典(河南卷)[M].北京:气象出版社,2005.
[19]蔡新玲,叶殿秀,李茜,等.基于CI指数的陕西干旱时空变化特征分析[J].干旱地区农业研究,2013,31(5):1-8.
[20]李伟光,易雪,候美亭,等.基于标准化降水蒸散指数的中国干旱趋势研究[J].中国生态农业学报,2012,20(5):643-649.
[21]胡悦,杜灵通,候静,等.基于SPI指数的宁夏中部干旱带1960~2012年干旱特征研究[J].干旱地区农业研究,2017,35(2):255-262.
[22]张丽艳,杨东,薛双奕,等.陕西省降水特征及其对旱涝灾害的影响[J].中国农学通报,2017,33(21):126-133.
[23]施能.气象科研与预报中的多远统计方法(第二版)[M].北京:气象出版社,2002.
[24]赵海燕,高歌,张培群,等.综合气象干旱指数修正及在西南地区的适用性[J].应用气象学报,2011,22(6):698-705.
[25]杨丽慧,高建芸,苏汝波,等.改进的综合气象干旱指数在福建省的适用性分析[J].中国农业气象,2012,33(4):603-608.
[26]甘晓.“渤海粮仓”的增粮奇迹[N].中国科学报,2014-05-23(T04B).
[2]张强,李耀辉,王强,等.中国干旱气象科学试验计划[C]∥第29届中国气象学会年会—强化科技基础推进气象现代化.沈阳:中国气象学会,2012:109-110.
[3]谭方颖,王建林,宋迎波.华北平原气候变暖对气象灾害发生趋势的影响[J].自然灾害学报,2010,19(5):125-131.
[4] Chen Z H,Yang G F. Analysis of drought hazard in north China:distribution and interpretation[J]. Natural Hazards,2013,65(1):279-294.
[5]钱永,张兆吉,费宇红,等.华北平原浅层地下水可持续利用潜力分析[J].中国生态农业学报,2014,22(8):890-897.
[6]朱菊艳,郭海朋,李文鹏,等.华北平原地面沉降与深层地下水开采关系[J].南水北调与水利科技,2014,12(3):165-169.
[7] Richard R,Heim J R. A review of twentieth-century drought indi-ces used in the United State[J]. Bulletin of the America Meteoro-logical Society,2002,83(8):1149-1165.
[8]施晔,梁忠民,易知之.区域综合干旱随机评价模型及其应用[J].水电能源科学,2011,29(9):1-3.
[9]王胜,田红,张存杰,等.安徽冬麦区4种干旱指数应用对比[J].气象科技,2015,43(2):295-301.
[10]潘妮,卫仁娟,詹存,等.干旱指数在四川省的适用性分析[J].南水北调与水利科技,2017,15(4):71-78.
[11]乔丽,杜继稳,薛春芳,等.干旱指标在陕西省适用性研究[J].干旱地区农业研究,2010,28(2):1-6.
[12]丁一汇.中国气象灾害大典(综合卷)[M].北京:气象出版社,2008.
[13]谢璞.中国气象灾害大典(北京卷)[M].北京:气象出版社,2005.
[14]王宗信.中国气象灾害大典(天津卷)[M].北京:气象出版社,2008.
[15]刘庆桐.中国气象灾害大典(山西卷)[M].北京:气象出版社,2006.
[16]臧建升.中国气象灾害大典(河北卷)[M].北京:气象出版社,2008.
[17]王建国,孙典卿.中国气象灾害大典(山东卷)[M].北京:气象出版社,2006.
[18]庞天荷.中国气象灾害大典(河南卷)[M].北京:气象出版社,2005.
[19]蔡新玲,叶殿秀,李茜,等.基于CI指数的陕西干旱时空变化特征分析[J].干旱地区农业研究,2013,31(5):1-8.
[20]李伟光,易雪,候美亭,等.基于标准化降水蒸散指数的中国干旱趋势研究[J].中国生态农业学报,2012,20(5):643-649.
[21]胡悦,杜灵通,候静,等.基于SPI指数的宁夏中部干旱带1960~2012年干旱特征研究[J].干旱地区农业研究,2017,35(2):255-262.
[22]张丽艳,杨东,薛双奕,等.陕西省降水特征及其对旱涝灾害的影响[J].中国农学通报,2017,33(21):126-133.
[23]施能.气象科研与预报中的多远统计方法(第二版)[M].北京:气象出版社,2002.
[24]赵海燕,高歌,张培群,等.综合气象干旱指数修正及在西南地区的适用性[J].应用气象学报,2011,22(6):698-705.
[25]杨丽慧,高建芸,苏汝波,等.改进的综合气象干旱指数在福建省的适用性分析[J].中国农业气象,2012,33(4):603-608.
[26]甘晓.“渤海粮仓”的增粮奇迹[N].中国科学报,2014-05-23(T04B).