“双11”促销活动中羊群效应的博弈分析
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摘要
2013年天猫"双11"促销活动的销售额突破了350亿。这种现象的背后是羊群效应的呈现,对促销活动起到了推波助澜的作用。文章运用博弈理论对此现象进行分析。结果表明,不同博弈情形对羊群效应的作用不同,羊群效应的形成需要一定的条件。文中共列出了网民之间、商户之间、网民与商户之间三种市场主体的7种博弈情形,不同的博弈情形可运用在不同的场景中。其中博弈情形1为大家都参与,适用于优质产品的无差异化推广销售中;博弈情形2为大家都不参与,适用于假冒、伪劣、盗版、水货等产品的打击和阻隔;博弈情形3、4、6为部分人参与,适用于特定产品、特定人群的差异化销售中;博弈情形5属于参与和不参与均可,适用在商家的专卖连锁店、加盟商户或各分、子公司的联合经营中;博弈情形7属于混合策略,在竞争充分的完全市场竞争结构下出现概率较大。
In 2013 Tmall "Double 11" promotional activities, sales exceeded 35 billion. Behind this phenomenon is herding effect which played a key role throughout the course of progress of promotion. In this paper, using Game theory to analyze this phenomenon, the results indicate that the formation of herding effect phenomenon requires certain preconditions. This paper lists between users,between businesses,between users and businesses seven kinds of game situations in three market players. The different game model can be used in different situations. The first model in which we all participate,applies to high-quality products to promote the sale of non-differentiation,The second model we do not participate,applies to fight against counterfeit,fake,pirated,parallel products. The third,fourth and sixth models are part of the people involved,which is applicable to a specific product,the difference in the sales of specific populations. The fifthmodel belonging to participate and can not participate for joint venturesin the business monopoly chain. The seventh model belongs to a mixedstrategy, a larger probability of full competition in the competitive structure of the market entirely.
In 2013 Tmall "Double 11" promotional activities, sales exceeded 35 billion. Behind this phenomenon is herding effect which played a key role throughout the course of progress of promotion. In this paper, using Game theory to analyze this phenomenon, the results indicate that the formation of herding effect phenomenon requires certain preconditions. This paper lists between users,between businesses,between users and businesses seven kinds of game situations in three market players. The different game model can be used in different situations. The first model in which we all participate,applies to high-quality products to promote the sale of non-differentiation,The second model we do not participate,applies to fight against counterfeit,fake,pirated,parallel products. The third,fourth and sixth models are part of the people involved,which is applicable to a specific product,the difference in the sales of specific populations. The fifthmodel belonging to participate and can not participate for joint venturesin the business monopoly chain. The seventh model belongs to a mixedstrategy, a larger probability of full competition in the competitive structure of the market entirely.
引文
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[2]Sznajd-weron k.Sznajd Model and its Applications[J].Acta Physica Polonica,2005,36(8):2537-2547.
[3]Huang J.,Chen Y.Herding in Online Product Choice[J].Psychology and Marketing,2006,23-05.
[4]Lux T.Herd Behavior,Bubbles and Crashes[J].Economic journal,1995,105(5):881-8961.
[5]CiprianiM.,GuarinoA.Herd Behavior and Contagion in Financial Markets[R].Working Paper,New York University,2003.
[6]韩少春,刘云等.基于动态演化博弈论的舆论传播羊群效应[J].系统工程学报,2011-04.
[7]李平,曾勇.基于非理性行为的羊群效应分析:一个简单模型[J].中国管理科学,2011(04).
[8]周耿,卜茂亮,王宇伟.用户经验与羊群行为—基于网上购物的实证研究[J].山西财经大学学报,2013(03).
[9]吕廷杰.我国移动商务发展趋势分析与展望[J].北京邮电大学学报(社会科学版),2006(04).
[10]齐佳音.面向不确定性的Web2.0用户创作内容管理研究[J].国家自然科学基金申请书[Z].2012(03).
[11]倪静,严广乐等.基于复杂网络的电子商务群聚消费传播模型研究[J].计算机应用研究,2011(03).
[12]中国互联网信息中心.第32次中国互联网络发展状况统计报告[R].