基于SPEI的若尔盖湿地干湿时空演变特征分析
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摘要
若尔盖湿地是黄河上游重要的水源补给地,也是我国重要的沼泽分布区,明确其干湿时空演变特征,对进一步研究湿地气候与环境变化具有重要意义。基于若尔盖地区19个气象站1961—2016年逐日气象资料,计算了不同时间尺度下的标准化降水蒸散指数(SPEI),结合云模型、Mann-Kendall检验、经验正交函数(EOF)等方法,分析了若尔盖湿地近56 a来干湿时空演变特征。结果表明:(1)近56年若尔盖湿地干湿演变大致呈"偏湿—偏干—偏湿—偏干"4个阶段,以1969年、1975年、1999年为变化节点,且在1995年后干旱发生的情况增多。M-K趋势检验显示无显著突变点。(2)云模型分析表明,湿地SPEI空间分布的均匀程度比时间分布的均匀程度大,气候的干湿变化也更加稳定。湿地各季节干湿变化亦呈现不同的强度、离散度和稳定度,其中春季干旱最为严重,冬季次之且冬季干湿变化最为集中和稳定。(3) EOF分析得到的特征向量及对应的时间系数反映了若尔盖湿地干旱的时空演变主要特征。受大尺度天气系统的影响,第一模态表现为全区一致的干旱趋势,南北反向差异和东西反向差异分别为第二模态和第三模态,反映了纬度、经度对SPEI指数的影响。
Zoige Wetland is an important source of water supply in the upper reaches of the Yellow River, and is also a major area of marsh distribution in China. Knowledge of the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of dry-wet conditions is essential for the further studies on climate and environmental changes in Zoige Wetland. Based on the daily meteorological data from 19 meteorological stations in the Zoige area from 1961 to 2016, the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index(SPEI) on different time scales was calculated. By using the cloud model, Mann-Kendall test, empirical orthogonal function(EOF) and other methods, the characteristics of spatiotemporal evolution of dry-wet conditions in Zoige Wetland during the past 56 years were analyzed. The results showed that:(1) the dry-wet evolution could be roughly divided into such four stages as humid-arid-humid-arid stage in the past 56 years, while the turning points were observed in 1969, 1975 and 1999 and drought occurred more frequently after 1995; Mann-Kendall test showed that there was no significant mutation of dry-wet condition in Zoige wetland;(2) cloud model analysis showed that the spatial distribution of SPEI was more uniform than the time distribution, and the spatial dry-wet evolution was more stable; dry-wet changes in different seasons showed the different intensity, dispersion and stability; the most serious drought occurred in spring followed by winter, drought was most uniform and stable in winter;(3) the eigenvectors obtained by EOF analysis and the corresponding time coefficients reflected the main characteristics of the spatiotemporal evolution of drought in Zoige Wetland. As a result of the influence of large scale climate systems, the first mode of EOF showed a uniform drought trend in the entire region. The differences between the north-south reverse and east-west reverse were the second and third mode, which reflected the influence of latitude and longitude on SPEI index.
Zoige Wetland is an important source of water supply in the upper reaches of the Yellow River, and is also a major area of marsh distribution in China. Knowledge of the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of dry-wet conditions is essential for the further studies on climate and environmental changes in Zoige Wetland. Based on the daily meteorological data from 19 meteorological stations in the Zoige area from 1961 to 2016, the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index(SPEI) on different time scales was calculated. By using the cloud model, Mann-Kendall test, empirical orthogonal function(EOF) and other methods, the characteristics of spatiotemporal evolution of dry-wet conditions in Zoige Wetland during the past 56 years were analyzed. The results showed that:(1) the dry-wet evolution could be roughly divided into such four stages as humid-arid-humid-arid stage in the past 56 years, while the turning points were observed in 1969, 1975 and 1999 and drought occurred more frequently after 1995; Mann-Kendall test showed that there was no significant mutation of dry-wet condition in Zoige wetland;(2) cloud model analysis showed that the spatial distribution of SPEI was more uniform than the time distribution, and the spatial dry-wet evolution was more stable; dry-wet changes in different seasons showed the different intensity, dispersion and stability; the most serious drought occurred in spring followed by winter, drought was most uniform and stable in winter;(3) the eigenvectors obtained by EOF analysis and the corresponding time coefficients reflected the main characteristics of the spatiotemporal evolution of drought in Zoige Wetland. As a result of the influence of large scale climate systems, the first mode of EOF showed a uniform drought trend in the entire region. The differences between the north-south reverse and east-west reverse were the second and third mode, which reflected the influence of latitude and longitude on SPEI index.
引文
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[13]张秋劲.若尔盖国家级生态功能保护区可持续发展研究[D].成都:四川大学,2004.
[14]李志威,王兆印,张晨笛,等.若尔盖沼泽湿地的萎缩机制[J].水科学进展,2014,25(2):172-180.
[15]强皓凡,靳晓言,赵璐,等.基于相对湿润度指数的近56年若尔盖湿地干湿变化[J].水土保持研究,2018,25(1):172-182.
[16]詹存,梁川,赵璐,等.基于云模型的江河源区降雨时空分布特征分析[J].长江科学院院报,2014,31(8):23-28.
[17]龙贻东,梁川,景楠,等.基于云模型和相对湿润度指数的干旱时空分布特征分析[J].灌溉排水学报,2015,34(8):67-71.
[18]李志威,孙萌,游宇驰,等.若尔盖高原实际蒸散量变化规律研究[J].生态环境学报,2017,26(8):1317-1324.
[19]Wang Wen, Zhu Ye, Xu Rengui, et al. Drought severity change in China during 1961—2012 indicated by SPI and SPEI[J]. Natural Hazards, 2015,75(3):2437-2451.
[20]Yin Y, Wu S, Zheng D, et al. Radiation calibration of FAO56 Penman-Monteith model to estimate reference crop evapotranspiration in China[J]. Agricultural Water Management, 2008,95(1):77-84.
[21]Allen R G, Pereira L S, Raes D, et al. Crop Evapotranspiration-Guidelines for Computing Crop Water Requirements-FAO Irrigation and Drainage Paper 56[Z]. Rome: Fao-Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, 1998.
[22]中华人民共和国国家质量监督检验检疫总局,中国国家标准化管理委员会.气象干旱等级GB/T20481—2006[S].北京:中国标准出版社,2006.
[23]刘德地,陈晓宏,楼章华.基于云模型的降雨时空分布特性分析[J].水利学报,2009,40(7):850-857.
[24]沈国强,郑海峰,雷振锋.基于SPEI指数的1961—2014年东北地区气象干旱时空特征研究[J].生态学报,2017,37(17):5882-5893.
[25]张玉静,王春乙,张继权.基于SPEI指数的华北冬麦区干旱时空分布特征分析[J].生态学报,2015,35(21):7097-7107.
[2]刘珂,姜大膀.基于两种潜在蒸散发算法的SPEI对中国干湿变化的分析[J].大气科学,2015,39(1):23-36.
[3]翁白莎,严登华.变化环境下中国干旱综合应对措施探讨[J].资源科学,2010,32(2):309-316.
[4]李韵婕,任福民,李忆平.1960—2010年中国西南地区区域性气象干旱事件的特征分析[J].气象学报,2014,72(2):266-276.
[5]张家发,唐文坚,李少龙.中国西南易旱地区识别的探讨[J].中国水利,2012(5):18-21,39.
[6]王东,张勃,安美玲,等.基于SPEI的西南地区近53 a干旱时空特征分析[J].自然资源学报,2014,29(6):1003-1016.
[7]王飞,丁建丽,魏阳.“一带一路”国家和地区百年尺度干旱化特征分析[J].地球信息科学学报,2017,19(11):1442-1455.
[8]Zargar A, Sadiq R, Naser B, et al. A review of drought indices[J]. Dossiers Environnement, 2011,19(1):333-349.
[9]Vicente-Serrano S M, Beguería S, López-Moreno J I. Amultiscalar drought index sensitive to global warming: The standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index[J]. Journal of Climate, 2010,23(7):1696-1718.
[10]庄少伟,左洪超,任鹏程,等.标准化降水蒸发指数在中国区域的应用[J].气候与环境研究,2013,18(5):617-625.
[11]张艳芳,吴春玲,张宏远,等.黄河源区植被指数与干旱指数时空变化特征[J].山地学报,2017,35(2):142-150.
[12]王丽茜,杨肖丽,任立良,等.长江上游气温、降水和干旱的变化趋势研究[J].人民长江,2017,48(20):39-44.
[13]张秋劲.若尔盖国家级生态功能保护区可持续发展研究[D].成都:四川大学,2004.
[14]李志威,王兆印,张晨笛,等.若尔盖沼泽湿地的萎缩机制[J].水科学进展,2014,25(2):172-180.
[15]强皓凡,靳晓言,赵璐,等.基于相对湿润度指数的近56年若尔盖湿地干湿变化[J].水土保持研究,2018,25(1):172-182.
[16]詹存,梁川,赵璐,等.基于云模型的江河源区降雨时空分布特征分析[J].长江科学院院报,2014,31(8):23-28.
[17]龙贻东,梁川,景楠,等.基于云模型和相对湿润度指数的干旱时空分布特征分析[J].灌溉排水学报,2015,34(8):67-71.
[18]李志威,孙萌,游宇驰,等.若尔盖高原实际蒸散量变化规律研究[J].生态环境学报,2017,26(8):1317-1324.
[19]Wang Wen, Zhu Ye, Xu Rengui, et al. Drought severity change in China during 1961—2012 indicated by SPI and SPEI[J]. Natural Hazards, 2015,75(3):2437-2451.
[20]Yin Y, Wu S, Zheng D, et al. Radiation calibration of FAO56 Penman-Monteith model to estimate reference crop evapotranspiration in China[J]. Agricultural Water Management, 2008,95(1):77-84.
[21]Allen R G, Pereira L S, Raes D, et al. Crop Evapotranspiration-Guidelines for Computing Crop Water Requirements-FAO Irrigation and Drainage Paper 56[Z]. Rome: Fao-Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, 1998.
[22]中华人民共和国国家质量监督检验检疫总局,中国国家标准化管理委员会.气象干旱等级GB/T20481—2006[S].北京:中国标准出版社,2006.
[23]刘德地,陈晓宏,楼章华.基于云模型的降雨时空分布特性分析[J].水利学报,2009,40(7):850-857.
[24]沈国强,郑海峰,雷振锋.基于SPEI指数的1961—2014年东北地区气象干旱时空特征研究[J].生态学报,2017,37(17):5882-5893.
[25]张玉静,王春乙,张继权.基于SPEI指数的华北冬麦区干旱时空分布特征分析[J].生态学报,2015,35(21):7097-7107.