全球大变局:中国的方位与出路
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摘要
当今世界处于全球经济政治发展大变局之中,世界政治经济发展呈现前所未有的大转折。环顾当今时代的全球大变革,全球体系结构和世界发展结构发生巨变,西方世界在全球体系中的传统主导地位面临全新挑战,新一轮工业化进程颠覆了发达国家与发展中国家间的"核心-边缘"区位,全球化发展出现大翻转,经历了长期的经济全球化和自由主义经济政策之后国家主义治理范式强势回归,中美关系发展面临前所未有的不确定性和历史性转折,等等。面对全球大变局和世界发展大转折,中国如何与这个世界相处?又如何理性应对其中复杂的国际国内变动因素,进而制定恰当的战略策略以实现自身的发展?大致说来,可以从以下方面来进行思考:保持战略定力,不犯方向性错误;继续坚持对外开放,坚持多边主义和互利共赢的外交合作道路;抓住历史机遇,积极推进新一轮工业化发展;理性认知国家主义的回潮,既要坚定中国国家治理的道路自信,又要对国家主义的走偏保持警醒和警惕;理性认知全球化的逆转和进退,积极推动全球化健康良性发展;积极发挥自身在发展领域的优势,着力推动构建发展能力共享的命运共同体。
The world today is in the midst of a great change in global economic and political development,and the world's political and economic development has shown an unprecedented turning point.Looking around the global revolution in the current era,the structure of global system and world's development are taking dramatic changes,in the traditional dominance of the Western world in the global system faces new challenges,the new round of industrialization has subverted the "core-edge" status between developed and developing countries,the development of globalization is undergoing a huge flip,the nationalist model has returned strongly to the centre of the national governance after the economic globalization and liberal economic policies has been prevailing for a long time,the Sino-US relations is now facing unprecedented uncertainty and historical turning,and so on.One after another,the historical changes are waiting for us to grasp and steer it direction with a rational attitude.In the face of the global changes and the world's development transformation,how does China get along with the changing world? How to rationally deal with the complex of international and domestic changes,and then develop appropriate strategies to achieve success in its own development? Generally speaking,we can think it from the following aspects:China should maintain established strategy,not make directional mistakes;continuing to open to the outside world,adhere to the path of multilateralism and mutual benefit and win-win diplomatic cooperation;seizing the historical opportunity of a new round of industrialization,and adhering to promote and lead the development of the new round of industrialization;rationally recognizing the resurgence of nationalism,not only to strengthen China's national governance,but also to be vigilant and alert to the trend of nationalism;rationally cognizing the reverse and the advance of globalization,continuously promoting and leading the development of globalization;actively exerting its own advantages in the field of development,and striving to promote the community of shared ability of development.
The world today is in the midst of a great change in global economic and political development,and the world's political and economic development has shown an unprecedented turning point.Looking around the global revolution in the current era,the structure of global system and world's development are taking dramatic changes,in the traditional dominance of the Western world in the global system faces new challenges,the new round of industrialization has subverted the "core-edge" status between developed and developing countries,the development of globalization is undergoing a huge flip,the nationalist model has returned strongly to the centre of the national governance after the economic globalization and liberal economic policies has been prevailing for a long time,the Sino-US relations is now facing unprecedented uncertainty and historical turning,and so on.One after another,the historical changes are waiting for us to grasp and steer it direction with a rational attitude.In the face of the global changes and the world's development transformation,how does China get along with the changing world? How to rationally deal with the complex of international and domestic changes,and then develop appropriate strategies to achieve success in its own development? Generally speaking,we can think it from the following aspects:China should maintain established strategy,not make directional mistakes;continuing to open to the outside world,adhere to the path of multilateralism and mutual benefit and win-win diplomatic cooperation;seizing the historical opportunity of a new round of industrialization,and adhering to promote and lead the development of the new round of industrialization;rationally recognizing the resurgence of nationalism,not only to strengthen China's national governance,but also to be vigilant and alert to the trend of nationalism;rationally cognizing the reverse and the advance of globalization,continuously promoting and leading the development of globalization;actively exerting its own advantages in the field of development,and striving to promote the community of shared ability of development.
引文
(1)Angus Maddison,“The World Economy:A Millenial Perspective,”OECD Publishing,2001;Richard Dobbs et al.,Urban world:Cities and the rise of the consuming class,Mckinsey Global Institute Report,June 2012,https://www.mckinsey.com/featured-insights/urbanization/urban-worldcities-and-the-rise-of-the-consuming-class.
(2)数据来源:世界银行2018年7月和2008年9月发布的数据。参见World Bank,“Data Bank,”http://databank.worldbank.org/data/home.aspx。
(3)Paul K.MacDonald and Joseph M.Parent,“The Road to Recovery:How Once Great Powers Became Great Again,”The Washington Quarterly,vol 41,no.3(Fall 2018),p.21.
(4)IMF,“World Economic Outlook Database,”http://www.imf.org/en/Data.
(5)数据来源:进出口数据来自中华人民共和国商务部,商务部新闻办2014年3月1日发布的新闻“中国2013年成为世界第一货物贸易大国”称:“根据世界贸易组织秘书处初步统计数据,2013年中国已成为世界第一货物贸易大国。2013年,中国货物进出口总额为4.16万亿美元,其中出口额2.21万亿美元,进口额1.95万亿美元。”网络用户数据来自David Barboza,“China Surpasses U.S.in Number of Internet Users,”New York Times,July26,2008,https://www.nytimes.com/2008/07/26/business/worldbusiness/26internet.html。
(6)林毅夫、王燕:《超越发展援助:在一个多极世界中重构发展合作新理念》,宋琛译,北京:北京大学出版社,2016年,第14-15页。
(7)姚帅:《国际发展援助的特点变化及未来趋势》,《国际经济合作》2017年第1期。
(8)联合国贸易与发展会议:《贸易和发展报告2015:使国际金融构架有利于发展》,联合国出版物,2015年,第155页,http://unctad.org/en/PublicationsLibrary/tdr2015_ch.pdf。
(9)相关数据引自郑宇:《援助有效性与新型发展合作模式构想》,《世界经济与政治》2017年第8期;黄超:《全球发展治理转型与中国的战略选择》,《国际展望》2018年第3期。
(10)参见塞缪尔·亨廷顿:《文明的冲突与世界秩序的构建》,北京:新华出版社,2010年;罗伯特·基欧汉:《霸权之后--世界政治经济中的合作与纷争》,上海:上海人民出版,2006年;约翰·米尔斯海默:《大国政治的悲剧》,上海:上海人民出版社,2008年。
(11)联合国贸易和发展组织:《世界投资报告2014:投资于可持续发展目标》,北京:经济管理出版社,2014年,第149-152页。
(12)United Nations Document,Coherence,Coordination and Cooperation in Context of Financing for Sustainable Development and the Post-2015 Development Agenda,E/2015/52,pp.10-11.
(13)参见弗朗西斯·福山:《国家构建》,北京:中国社会科学出版社,2007年;Francis Fukuyama,Political Order and Political Decay:From the Industrial Revolution to the Globalization of Democracy,New York:Farrar,Straus and Giroux,2014。
(14)高奇琦:《试论全球治理的国家自理机制》,《学习与探索》2014年第10期。
(2)数据来源:世界银行2018年7月和2008年9月发布的数据。参见World Bank,“Data Bank,”http://databank.worldbank.org/data/home.aspx。
(3)Paul K.MacDonald and Joseph M.Parent,“The Road to Recovery:How Once Great Powers Became Great Again,”The Washington Quarterly,vol 41,no.3(Fall 2018),p.21.
(4)IMF,“World Economic Outlook Database,”http://www.imf.org/en/Data.
(5)数据来源:进出口数据来自中华人民共和国商务部,商务部新闻办2014年3月1日发布的新闻“中国2013年成为世界第一货物贸易大国”称:“根据世界贸易组织秘书处初步统计数据,2013年中国已成为世界第一货物贸易大国。2013年,中国货物进出口总额为4.16万亿美元,其中出口额2.21万亿美元,进口额1.95万亿美元。”网络用户数据来自David Barboza,“China Surpasses U.S.in Number of Internet Users,”New York Times,July26,2008,https://www.nytimes.com/2008/07/26/business/worldbusiness/26internet.html。
(6)林毅夫、王燕:《超越发展援助:在一个多极世界中重构发展合作新理念》,宋琛译,北京:北京大学出版社,2016年,第14-15页。
(7)姚帅:《国际发展援助的特点变化及未来趋势》,《国际经济合作》2017年第1期。
(8)联合国贸易与发展会议:《贸易和发展报告2015:使国际金融构架有利于发展》,联合国出版物,2015年,第155页,http://unctad.org/en/PublicationsLibrary/tdr2015_ch.pdf。
(9)相关数据引自郑宇:《援助有效性与新型发展合作模式构想》,《世界经济与政治》2017年第8期;黄超:《全球发展治理转型与中国的战略选择》,《国际展望》2018年第3期。
(10)参见塞缪尔·亨廷顿:《文明的冲突与世界秩序的构建》,北京:新华出版社,2010年;罗伯特·基欧汉:《霸权之后--世界政治经济中的合作与纷争》,上海:上海人民出版,2006年;约翰·米尔斯海默:《大国政治的悲剧》,上海:上海人民出版社,2008年。
(11)联合国贸易和发展组织:《世界投资报告2014:投资于可持续发展目标》,北京:经济管理出版社,2014年,第149-152页。
(12)United Nations Document,Coherence,Coordination and Cooperation in Context of Financing for Sustainable Development and the Post-2015 Development Agenda,E/2015/52,pp.10-11.
(13)参见弗朗西斯·福山:《国家构建》,北京:中国社会科学出版社,2007年;Francis Fukuyama,Political Order and Political Decay:From the Industrial Revolution to the Globalization of Democracy,New York:Farrar,Straus and Giroux,2014。
(14)高奇琦:《试论全球治理的国家自理机制》,《学习与探索》2014年第10期。