MJO背景下云南省3次台风强对流天气对比分析
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摘要
应用常规观测资料、NCEP 1°×1°再分析资料及MJO等资料对台风韦森特、威马逊和天鸽影响下云南省出现的强对流天气过程进行对比分析.研究表明:台风登陆前后但尚未进入影响云南的关键区之前,强对流天气因台风登陆位置和强度、MJO位相、MJO强弱、前期地面热力条件等不同而不同.台风在西行过程中,当MJO位于第2～6位相且表现为强MJO时(威马逊和天鸽),有利于云南区域强对流天气的发生发展;台风天鸽MJO位于第2位相(干窗口),其爆发性增强配合前期较有利的地面热量等不稳定条件更有利于触发云南强对流天气;MJO位于第4～6位相(湿窗口)时云南降水更突出.
This paper aims to analyze strong convective weather process under the typhoon Vicente, Rammasun and Hato in Yunnan Province, through the conventional observation data, National Centers for Environmental Prediction(NCEP) 1° ×1° reanalysis data and Madden—Julian Oscillation(MJO). Results indicated that when the typhoon was about to come but had not yet entered key influence areas of Yunnan, the strong convective weather varied depending on the typhoon landing location, typhoon intensity, MJO phase, MJO strength, and the thermal conditions in early ground.In the westbound process of typhoon, when the MJO is in the 2—6 phases and behaves as strong MJO(in the cases of Rammasun and Hato), it will be beneficial to the formation of strong convection weather in Yunnan region.For the typhoon Hato,the MJO was in the 2 phase(dry window) and had an explosive enhancement, further combing with the high thermal condition in early ground, all the unstable conditions were more favorable to trigger the strong convective weather in Yunnan. Otherwise, when MJO was in the 4—6 phases(wet window), the precipitation would be more prominent in Yunnan.
This paper aims to analyze strong convective weather process under the typhoon Vicente, Rammasun and Hato in Yunnan Province, through the conventional observation data, National Centers for Environmental Prediction(NCEP) 1° ×1° reanalysis data and Madden—Julian Oscillation(MJO). Results indicated that when the typhoon was about to come but had not yet entered key influence areas of Yunnan, the strong convective weather varied depending on the typhoon landing location, typhoon intensity, MJO phase, MJO strength, and the thermal conditions in early ground.In the westbound process of typhoon, when the MJO is in the 2—6 phases and behaves as strong MJO(in the cases of Rammasun and Hato), it will be beneficial to the formation of strong convection weather in Yunnan region.For the typhoon Hato,the MJO was in the 2 phase(dry window) and had an explosive enhancement, further combing with the high thermal condition in early ground, all the unstable conditions were more favorable to trigger the strong convective weather in Yunnan. Otherwise, when MJO was in the 4—6 phases(wet window), the precipitation would be more prominent in Yunnan.
引文
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[11]李崇银.大气低频振荡[M].北京:气象出版社,1993.Li C Y.Atmospheric low frequency oscillation[M].Beijing:China Meterological Press,1993.
[12]李汀,严欣,琚建华.MJO活动对云南5月降水的影响[J].大气科学,2012,36(6):1 101-1 111.Li T,Yan X,Ju J H.Impact of MJO activities on precipitation in May over Yunnan[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences,2012,36(6):1 101-1 111.
[13]丁一汇,梁萍.基于MJO的延伸预报[J].气象,2010,36(7):111-122.Ding Y H,Liang P.Extended range foreeast basingon MJO[J].Meteorological Monthly,2010,36(7):111-122.
[14]琚建华,钱诚,曹杰.东亚夏季风的季节内振荡研究[J].大气科学,2005,29(2):187-194.DOI:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2005.02.03.Ju J H,Qian C,Cao J.The Intra-seasonal oscillation of East Asian summer monsoon[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences,2005,29(2):187-194.
[15]琚建华,孙丹,吕俊梅.东亚季风涌对我国东部大尺度降水过程的影响分析[J].大气科学,2007,31(6):1 029-1 039.Ju J H,Sun D,LüJ M.The influence of the East Asian monsoon stream on the large-scale precipitationcoursein eastern China[J].Chinese Journal of Atmos-pheric Sciences,2007,31(6):1 029-1 039.
[16]朱乾坤,林锦瑞,寿绍文,等.天气学原理和方法[M].北京:气象出版社,2010.Zhu Q K,Lin J R,Shou S W,et al.The principlesand methods of weather[M].Beijing:China Meterological Press,2010.
[2]张思豆,张腾飞,曹杰.云南2次西行台风暴雨过程数值模拟和诊断分析[J].云南大学学报:自然科学版,2017,39(6):1 012-1 022.Zhang S D,Zhang T F,Cao J.A numericalsimulation and diagnostic analysis of two westward ty-phoon rainstorm process in Yunnan[J].Journal of Yunnan University:Natural Sciences Edition,2017,39(6):1 012-1 022.
[3]杨竹云,杞明辉,杨素云,等.台风“启德”影响云南强降水过程分析[J].云南大学学报:自然科学版,2014,36(S1):70-76.Yang Z Y,Qi M H,Yang S Y,et al.Analyses of heavyrainfall process in Yunnan influenced by the typhoon"Kaitak"[J].Journal of Yunnan University:Natural Sciences Edition,2014,36(S1):70-76.
[4]徐舒扬,周德丽,苗绍慧,等.台风“威马逊”造成云南强降水灾害天气分析[J].灾害学,2016,31(4):229-234.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-811X.2016.04.041.Xu S Y,Zhou D L,Miao S H,et al.An analysis aboutthe disastrous weather of heavy precipitation resultedfrom the typhoon Rammasun in Yunnan Province[J].Journal of Catastrophology,2016,31(4):229-234.
[5]周泓,金少华,尤红.台风“灿都”造成云南强降水过程的水汽螺旋度诊断分析[J].气象科学,2012,32(3):339-346.DOI:10.3969/2012jms.0030.Zhou H,Jin S H,You H.Diagnostic analysis of moisture helicity for the heavy rainfall processes in Yunnancaused by typhoon“Chanthu”[J].Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2012,32(3):339-346.
[6]尤红,王曼,曹中和,等.0604号台风“碧利斯”持久不消及造成云南暴雨成因分析[J].台湾海峡,2008,27(2):256-261.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-8160.2008.02.020.You H,Wang M,Cao Z H,et al.Analysis on longsubsistence of typhoon 0604“Bilis”and the formation of Yunnan rainstorm[J].Journal of Oceanography in Taiwan Strait,2008,27(2):256-261.
[7]牛法宝,李汀,琚建华,等.对云南2011年冬季降水的延伸期天气预测试验[J].云南大学学报:自然科学版,2012,34(1):62-65.Niu F B,Li T,Ju J H,et al.Extended range weatherforecast experiment to winter precipitation over Yunnanin 2011[J].Journal of Yunnan University:Natural Sciences Edition,2012,34(1):62-65.
[8]杞明辉,牛法宝,琚建华,等.利用MJO活动规律进行云南雨季开始期的延伸期预测试验[J].气象科技进展,2013,3(1):57-63.Qi M H,Niu F B,Ju J H,et al.Extended-range forecastof the beginning of the rainy season in Yunnan by studying the MJO action regularity[J].Advances in Meteorological Science and Technology,2013,3(1):57-63.
[9]米瑞芝,牛法宝,向影,等.MJO影响下2016年云南首场强降水过程的成因[J].干旱气象,2017,35(2):232-238.Mi R Z,Niu F B,Xiang Y,et al.Cause analysis on the first provincial range heavy rain process under the influence of MJO in Yunnan Province in 2016[J].Journal of Arid Meteorology,2017,35(2):232-238.
[10]李崇银,潘静,田华,等.西北太平洋台风活动与大气季节内震荡[J].气象,2012,38(1):1-16.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1006-8775.2012.01.001.Li C Y,Pan J,Tian H,et al.Typhoon activities overthe western North Pacific and atmospheric Intra-seasonal Oscillation[J].Meteorological Monthly,2012,38(1):1-16.
[11]李崇银.大气低频振荡[M].北京:气象出版社,1993.Li C Y.Atmospheric low frequency oscillation[M].Beijing:China Meterological Press,1993.
[12]李汀,严欣,琚建华.MJO活动对云南5月降水的影响[J].大气科学,2012,36(6):1 101-1 111.Li T,Yan X,Ju J H.Impact of MJO activities on precipitation in May over Yunnan[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences,2012,36(6):1 101-1 111.
[13]丁一汇,梁萍.基于MJO的延伸预报[J].气象,2010,36(7):111-122.Ding Y H,Liang P.Extended range foreeast basingon MJO[J].Meteorological Monthly,2010,36(7):111-122.
[14]琚建华,钱诚,曹杰.东亚夏季风的季节内振荡研究[J].大气科学,2005,29(2):187-194.DOI:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2005.02.03.Ju J H,Qian C,Cao J.The Intra-seasonal oscillation of East Asian summer monsoon[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences,2005,29(2):187-194.
[15]琚建华,孙丹,吕俊梅.东亚季风涌对我国东部大尺度降水过程的影响分析[J].大气科学,2007,31(6):1 029-1 039.Ju J H,Sun D,LüJ M.The influence of the East Asian monsoon stream on the large-scale precipitationcoursein eastern China[J].Chinese Journal of Atmos-pheric Sciences,2007,31(6):1 029-1 039.
[16]朱乾坤,林锦瑞,寿绍文,等.天气学原理和方法[M].北京:气象出版社,2010.Zhu Q K,Lin J R,Shou S W,et al.The principlesand methods of weather[M].Beijing:China Meterological Press,2010.