太湖全年洪水分期划分初步研究

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英文篇名：Preliminary research on annual flood period division of Taihu Lake 作者：闻余华 ; 董家根 ; 王中雅 英文作者：WEN Yuhua;DONG Jiagen;WANG Zhongya;Jiangsu Provincial Hydrology and Water Resources Investigation Bureau;College of Hydrology and Water Resources,Hohai University; 关键词：洪水分期 ; 分形理论 ; 容量维数 ; 太湖 英文关键词：flood period division;;fractal theory;;capacity dimension;;Taihu Lake 中文刊名：RIVE 英文刊名：Yangtze River 机构：江苏省水文水资源勘测局;河海大学水文水资源学院; 出版日期：2014-05-20 12:52 出版单位：人民长江 年：2014 期：v.45;No.538 基金：江苏省水利科技项目(2013033) 语种：中文; 页：RIVE201409002 页数：4 CN：09 ISSN：42-1202/TV 分类号：8-11

摘要

对太湖开展洪水分期研究可大幅提高太湖的水资源利用率。首先根据经验统计法,利用太湖1986~2010年入湖流量资料,分别绘制旬最大1 d平均流量和月最大3 d平均流量散布图,并在此基础上统计各旬洪峰流量出现次数,进行分期划分,大致确定了5个分期;随后应用分形理论对太湖全年日最大流量系列样本进行容量维数计算,确定了5个洪水分期,与经验统计法总体一致。分形理论计算方法具有定量、客观等明显优点,分期结果可以作为确定太湖全年洪水分期划分的主要依据。
        A preliminary study for the flood period division of Taihu Lake can increase the water resources utilization efficiency. Firstly,according to the empirical statistics and by using the observed data of inflow from 1986 to 2010,distribution graphs of the maximum 1d average flow in 10 days and 3d average flow in a month are drawn respectively,and on this basis,we can obtain the occurring times of peak flood flow in a period of 10d,and approximately determine a division of five flood periods. Then, the fractal theory is applied to compute the capacity dimension for the serial samples of maximum daily flow of Taihu Lake in a whole year,and also a division of five flood periods is determined. The calculation by fractal theory not only can get the same result as the empirical statistics,but also has the quantitative and objective characteristics,providing a basis for the annual flood period division of Taihu Lake.

引文

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