农户信誉特征、还款意愿传递与农户信贷可得——基于信号传递博弈的理论分析和实证检验
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摘要
本文通过建立信号传递博弈模型,分析信誉作为农户还款意愿的抵押品替代与农户信贷可得之间的内在作用机理,并根据信号传递博弈的均衡分析结论提出研究假设,进一步以农户获得各类荣誉称号、表彰以及他人评价情况作为农户信誉的替代变量,利用河南农户的调查数据进行实证检验。通过Logit回归模型和Tobit回归模型分析发现,农户具有高信誉特征能够有效增加其信贷可得性和信贷额度,表明农户信誉可以作为一种抵押品替代缓解农户所受信贷配给。此外,农户是否获得信用评级、家庭总收入也显著影响农户信贷可得性和信贷额度。研究结论对完善农村金融市场体系,推进金融扶贫工作,振兴乡村经济具有重要的理论价值和现实指导意义。
Based on the reputation related literature review,this paper builds the signaling game model to analyze the inherentrelation between farmer households' reputation as collateral substitution and credit availability,and puts forward the corresponding hypotheses.Using the survey data of farmer households in Henan,this paper tests the hypotheses with proxy of reputation measured by farmer households' reputation title and reputation evaluation. Through the Logit and Tobit regression analysis,it finds that high reputation as collateral substitution signal can effectively alleviate the credit constraints of farmer households,increase farmer households' credit availability and credit lines. In addition,credit rating and total income also have a significant effect on them. The results have important theoretical and practical significance for improving the rural financial market system,advancing rural financial poverty alleviation work,and revitalizing the rural economy.
Based on the reputation related literature review,this paper builds the signaling game model to analyze the inherentrelation between farmer households' reputation as collateral substitution and credit availability,and puts forward the corresponding hypotheses.Using the survey data of farmer households in Henan,this paper tests the hypotheses with proxy of reputation measured by farmer households' reputation title and reputation evaluation. Through the Logit and Tobit regression analysis,it finds that high reputation as collateral substitution signal can effectively alleviate the credit constraints of farmer households,increase farmer households' credit availability and credit lines. In addition,credit rating and total income also have a significant effect on them. The results have important theoretical and practical significance for improving the rural financial market system,advancing rural financial poverty alleviation work,and revitalizing the rural economy.
引文
[1]王性玉,田建强.农户资源禀赋与农业产出关系研究——基于信贷配给数据的分组讨论[J].管理评论,2011,23(9):38-42
[2]马本江.经济学中信任、信用与信誉的概念界定与区分初探——兼论信任问题与信用问题的一致性[J].生产力研究,2008,(12):20-22
[3] Kreps D. M.,Milgrom P.,Roberts J.,et al. Rational Cooperation in the Finitely Repeated Prisoner’s Dilemma[J]. Journal of Economic Theory,1982,27(2):245-252
[4] Kandori M. Social Norms and Community Enforcement[J]. Review of Economic Studies,1992,59(1):63-80
[5] Horner J. Reputation and Competition[J]. American Economics Review,2002,92(3):663-664
[6] Pfeiffer T.,Tran L.,Krumme C.,et al. The Value of Reputation[J]. Journal of the Royal Society Interface,2012,9(76):2791-2797
[7] Cox C. A.,Jones M. T.,Pflum K. E.,et al. Revealed Reputations in the Finitely Repeated Prisoners’Dilemma[J]. Economic Theory,2015,58(3):441-484
[8] Meng X. Analyst Reputation,Communication,and Information Acquisition[J]. Journal of Accounting Research,2015,53(1):119-173
[9] Bolton G.,Greiner B.,Ockenfels A. Engineering Trust:Reciprocity in the Production of Reputation Information[J]. Management Science,2013,59(2):265-285
[10] Nieken P.,Sliwka D. Management Changes,Reputation,and “Big Bath”-Earnings Management[J]. Journal of Economics&Management Strategy,2015,24(3):501-522
[11]张维迎.法律制度的信誉基础[J].经济研究,2002,37(1):3-13
[12]李延喜,吴笛,肖峰雷,等.声誉理论研究述评[J].管理评论,2010,22(10):3-11
[13]蔡洪滨,张琥,严旭阳.中国企业信誉缺失的理论分析[J].经济研究,2006,41(9):85-93
[14]卢阳春. WTO与我国信用制度的建设[J].财经科学,2002,(1):118-121
[15]黄涛.中小企业抵押型信贷的创新思路[J].商业时代,2008,228(10):41-42
[16]米运生,曾泽莹,何璟.农村互联性贷款的存在逻辑与自我履约——基于声誉视角的理论分析[J].经济科学,2016,38(3):100-113
[17]雷宇.声誉机制的信任基础:危机与重建[J].管理评论,2016,28(8):225-237
[18] Ottati G. D. Trust,Interlinking Transactions and Credit in the Industrial District[J]. Cambridge Journal of Economics,1994,18(6):529-546
[19] Cai K. N.,Helwege J.,Warga A. Underpricing and Reputation Acquisition in the Corporate Bond Market[R]. University of Michigan Working Paper,2005
[20] Reka S. S. Three Essays on Reputation in Rural Credit Markets:A Honduran Case Study[D]. PhD. University of WisconsinMadison,2005
[21] Wang T. C. Paying Back to Borrow More:Reputation and Bank Credit Access in Early America[J]. Explorations in Economic History,2008,45(4):477-488
[22] Tsoukas S.,Mizen P.,Tsoukalsa J. The Iimportance of a Good Reputation:New Evidence from the US Corporate Bond Market[R]. University of Glasgow Working Paper,2011
[23] Danilowska A. Cooperative Banks and a Problem of Adverse Selection in Agricultural Credit Market[J]. Economic Science for Rural Development,2012,165(28):176-180
[24]匡桦,李富有,张旭涛.隐性约束、声誉约束与农户借贷行为[J].经济科学,2011,33(2):77-88
[25]范香梅,张晓云.社会资本影响农户贷款可得性的理论与实证分析[J].管理世界,2012,(4):177-178
[26]侯英,陈希敏.声誉、借贷可得性、经济及个体特征与农户借贷行为——基于结构方程模型(SEM)的实证研究[J].农业技术经济,2014,(9):61-71
[27]丁振辉.农户声誉和村镇银行经营思路研究[J].兰州学刊,2015,(7):193-198
[28]黄绍进,李善民.信用声誉、银行信贷决策与农户融资成本——来自我国首个信用县的经验证据[J].征信,2017,35(3):24-30
[29]黄晓红.基于信号传递的农户声誉对农户借贷结果影响的实证研究[J].经济经纬,2009,(3):108-111
[30]姚唯一.基于农户声誉的农村信贷创新研究[D].河南大学硕士学位论文,2014
[31]王性玉,任乐,赵辉.社会资本对农户信贷配给影响的分类研究——基于河南省农户的数据检验[J].经济问题探索,2016,(9):172-181
[32]任乐,王性玉,赵辉.农户信贷可得性和最优贷款额度的理论分析与实证检验——基于农业保险抵押品替代视角[J].管理评论,2017,29(6):32-42
(1)尽管国内学者黄晓红认为声誉能有效揭示农户还款能力和还款意愿,但是本文认为农户还款能力由农户的生产能力、农业产出和实际收入等因素决定,农户信誉主要影响其还款意愿。
(2)本文中农户实际经营能力用农户收入来反映,分别用农户总收入和农户农业收入做相应检验。
[2]马本江.经济学中信任、信用与信誉的概念界定与区分初探——兼论信任问题与信用问题的一致性[J].生产力研究,2008,(12):20-22
[3] Kreps D. M.,Milgrom P.,Roberts J.,et al. Rational Cooperation in the Finitely Repeated Prisoner’s Dilemma[J]. Journal of Economic Theory,1982,27(2):245-252
[4] Kandori M. Social Norms and Community Enforcement[J]. Review of Economic Studies,1992,59(1):63-80
[5] Horner J. Reputation and Competition[J]. American Economics Review,2002,92(3):663-664
[6] Pfeiffer T.,Tran L.,Krumme C.,et al. The Value of Reputation[J]. Journal of the Royal Society Interface,2012,9(76):2791-2797
[7] Cox C. A.,Jones M. T.,Pflum K. E.,et al. Revealed Reputations in the Finitely Repeated Prisoners’Dilemma[J]. Economic Theory,2015,58(3):441-484
[8] Meng X. Analyst Reputation,Communication,and Information Acquisition[J]. Journal of Accounting Research,2015,53(1):119-173
[9] Bolton G.,Greiner B.,Ockenfels A. Engineering Trust:Reciprocity in the Production of Reputation Information[J]. Management Science,2013,59(2):265-285
[10] Nieken P.,Sliwka D. Management Changes,Reputation,and “Big Bath”-Earnings Management[J]. Journal of Economics&Management Strategy,2015,24(3):501-522
[11]张维迎.法律制度的信誉基础[J].经济研究,2002,37(1):3-13
[12]李延喜,吴笛,肖峰雷,等.声誉理论研究述评[J].管理评论,2010,22(10):3-11
[13]蔡洪滨,张琥,严旭阳.中国企业信誉缺失的理论分析[J].经济研究,2006,41(9):85-93
[14]卢阳春. WTO与我国信用制度的建设[J].财经科学,2002,(1):118-121
[15]黄涛.中小企业抵押型信贷的创新思路[J].商业时代,2008,228(10):41-42
[16]米运生,曾泽莹,何璟.农村互联性贷款的存在逻辑与自我履约——基于声誉视角的理论分析[J].经济科学,2016,38(3):100-113
[17]雷宇.声誉机制的信任基础:危机与重建[J].管理评论,2016,28(8):225-237
[18] Ottati G. D. Trust,Interlinking Transactions and Credit in the Industrial District[J]. Cambridge Journal of Economics,1994,18(6):529-546
[19] Cai K. N.,Helwege J.,Warga A. Underpricing and Reputation Acquisition in the Corporate Bond Market[R]. University of Michigan Working Paper,2005
[20] Reka S. S. Three Essays on Reputation in Rural Credit Markets:A Honduran Case Study[D]. PhD. University of WisconsinMadison,2005
[21] Wang T. C. Paying Back to Borrow More:Reputation and Bank Credit Access in Early America[J]. Explorations in Economic History,2008,45(4):477-488
[22] Tsoukas S.,Mizen P.,Tsoukalsa J. The Iimportance of a Good Reputation:New Evidence from the US Corporate Bond Market[R]. University of Glasgow Working Paper,2011
[23] Danilowska A. Cooperative Banks and a Problem of Adverse Selection in Agricultural Credit Market[J]. Economic Science for Rural Development,2012,165(28):176-180
[24]匡桦,李富有,张旭涛.隐性约束、声誉约束与农户借贷行为[J].经济科学,2011,33(2):77-88
[25]范香梅,张晓云.社会资本影响农户贷款可得性的理论与实证分析[J].管理世界,2012,(4):177-178
[26]侯英,陈希敏.声誉、借贷可得性、经济及个体特征与农户借贷行为——基于结构方程模型(SEM)的实证研究[J].农业技术经济,2014,(9):61-71
[27]丁振辉.农户声誉和村镇银行经营思路研究[J].兰州学刊,2015,(7):193-198
[28]黄绍进,李善民.信用声誉、银行信贷决策与农户融资成本——来自我国首个信用县的经验证据[J].征信,2017,35(3):24-30
[29]黄晓红.基于信号传递的农户声誉对农户借贷结果影响的实证研究[J].经济经纬,2009,(3):108-111
[30]姚唯一.基于农户声誉的农村信贷创新研究[D].河南大学硕士学位论文,2014
[31]王性玉,任乐,赵辉.社会资本对农户信贷配给影响的分类研究——基于河南省农户的数据检验[J].经济问题探索,2016,(9):172-181
[32]任乐,王性玉,赵辉.农户信贷可得性和最优贷款额度的理论分析与实证检验——基于农业保险抵押品替代视角[J].管理评论,2017,29(6):32-42
(1)尽管国内学者黄晓红认为声誉能有效揭示农户还款能力和还款意愿,但是本文认为农户还款能力由农户的生产能力、农业产出和实际收入等因素决定,农户信誉主要影响其还款意愿。
(2)本文中农户实际经营能力用农户收入来反映,分别用农户总收入和农户农业收入做相应检验。
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