1961—2016年祁连山区季节性干旱综合指数特征分析
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摘要
采用Z指数和熵权理论,构建了干旱综合指数作为干旱强度评价标准,对祁连山区季节性干旱特征及其空间分布规律进行了深入剖析。结果表明:1961—2016年季节性干旱强度普遍减弱,其中春秋两季显著减弱,夏季明显减弱;尽管20世纪60—70年代、90年代为季节性干旱频发与重发时段,但从2000年以来夏旱与冬旱却比较频繁,不容忽视。干旱强度由强到弱依次为冬季、夏季、春季和秋季,冬季干旱程度最强;在干旱波动性上秋季最强,冬季次之,春季最弱。春夏秋三季南侧比北侧干旱,冬季北侧比南侧干旱,其中冬季干旱范围最为广泛,尤以酒泉为中心的北侧区域最为显著。在研究时段内祁连山南北两侧干旱强度逐渐减弱,南侧明显减弱,枯草期干旱强度减弱程度尤为显著。本研究为祁连山区干旱评价提供了参考依据。
Based on Z index and entropy weight theory,the seasonal drought composite index was constructed to evaluate the drought intensity. Taken the Qilian Mountain area as an example,the characteristics and spatial distribution of seasonal drought were evaluated. The results show that drought intensity becomes weak from 1961 to 2016.The intensity of drought in spring and autumn is significantly weakened. The intensity of drought in summer is also weakened though it does not pass the significant test. In general,seasonal droughts are frequent and severe in the1960 s,1970 s,and 1990 s. However,the summer drought and winter drought become frequently since 2000,which should require to pay more attention. The drought intensity of four seasons sorted from severe to mild is winter,summer,spring,and autumn. In terms of drought variability,autumn is the strongest,followed by winter. Spring is the weakest. The south of the Qilian Mountains area is drier than the north in spring,summer and autumn,and vice versa in winter. Drought in winter is widespread,especially severe in the north of the Qilian Mountain area where Jiuquan is the center of this region. During the study period,the drought intensity becomes weak gradually in both north and south of the Qilian Mountain area. The drought intensity in the south becomes milder than that in the north. Drought intensity during the period of no-grass decreased significantly. This study provides a reference for the evaluation of drought in the Qilian Mountain area.
Based on Z index and entropy weight theory,the seasonal drought composite index was constructed to evaluate the drought intensity. Taken the Qilian Mountain area as an example,the characteristics and spatial distribution of seasonal drought were evaluated. The results show that drought intensity becomes weak from 1961 to 2016.The intensity of drought in spring and autumn is significantly weakened. The intensity of drought in summer is also weakened though it does not pass the significant test. In general,seasonal droughts are frequent and severe in the1960 s,1970 s,and 1990 s. However,the summer drought and winter drought become frequently since 2000,which should require to pay more attention. The drought intensity of four seasons sorted from severe to mild is winter,summer,spring,and autumn. In terms of drought variability,autumn is the strongest,followed by winter. Spring is the weakest. The south of the Qilian Mountains area is drier than the north in spring,summer and autumn,and vice versa in winter. Drought in winter is widespread,especially severe in the north of the Qilian Mountain area where Jiuquan is the center of this region. During the study period,the drought intensity becomes weak gradually in both north and south of the Qilian Mountain area. The drought intensity in the south becomes milder than that in the north. Drought intensity during the period of no-grass decreased significantly. This study provides a reference for the evaluation of drought in the Qilian Mountain area.
引文
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[10]李洪权,范广洲,周定文,等.青藏高原春季植被变化特征及其对夏季气温的影响[J].地理科学,2008,28(2):259-265.
[11]武正丽,贾文雄,赵珍,等.2000-2012年祁连山植被覆盖变化及其与气候因子的相关性[J].干旱区地理,2015,38(6):1241-1252.
[12]神祥金,周道玮,李飞,等.中国草原区植被变化及其对气候变化的响应[J].地理科学,2015,35(5):622-629.
[13]李霞,李晓兵,王宏,等.气候变化对中国北方温带草原植被的影响[J].北京师范大学学报:自然科学版,2006,42(6):618-623.
[14]于伯华,吕昌河,吕婷婷,等.青藏高原植被覆盖变化的地域分异特征[J].地理科学进展,2009,28(3):391-397.
[15]李文,曹文侠,徐长林,等.不同休牧模式对东祁连山高寒草甸草原植被特征变化的影响[J].西北植物学报,2014,34(11):2339-2345.
[16]袁文平,周广胜.标准化降水指标与Z指数在我国应用的对比分析[J].植物生态学报,2004,28(4):523-529.
[17]郭小芹,刘明春,钱莉,等.从Mann-Kendall特征看石羊河流域降水量的演变规律[J].干旱区地理,2011,33(4):593-599.
[18]罗军刚,解建仓,阮本清.基于熵权的水资源短缺风险模糊综合评价模型及应用[J].水利学报,2008,39(9):1092-1097,1104.
[2]赵珊珊,高歌,黄大鹏,等.2004-2013年中国气象灾害损失特征分析[J].气象与环境学报,2017,33(1):101-107.
[3]叶敏,钱忠华,吴永萍.中国旱涝时空分布特征分析[J].物理学报,2013,62(13):139203.
[4]王兆礼,李军,黄泽勤,等.基于改进帕默尔干旱指数的中国气象干旱时空演变分析[J].农业工程学报,2016,32(2):161-168.
[5]沙莉,李施,沙莎,等.基于SPI指数甘肃省河东地区干旱特征分析[J].气象与环境学报,2016,32(5):122-130.
[6]杨世刚,杨德保,赵桂香,等.三种干旱指数在山西省干旱分析中的比较[J].高原气象,2011,30(5):1406-1414.
[7]茅海祥,王文.1960-2010年中国南方地区夏季旱涝时空分布特征[J].气象与环境学报,2012,28(1):90-95.
[8]蓝永超,胡兴林,丁宏伟,等.河西内陆河流域山区近50余年来气温变化的多尺度特征和突变分析[J].山地学报,2014,32(2):163-170.
[9]申红艳,马明亮,时兴合,等.青海高原春季气温异常及影响因子分析[J].气象与环境学报,2016,32(1):95-102.
[10]李洪权,范广洲,周定文,等.青藏高原春季植被变化特征及其对夏季气温的影响[J].地理科学,2008,28(2):259-265.
[11]武正丽,贾文雄,赵珍,等.2000-2012年祁连山植被覆盖变化及其与气候因子的相关性[J].干旱区地理,2015,38(6):1241-1252.
[12]神祥金,周道玮,李飞,等.中国草原区植被变化及其对气候变化的响应[J].地理科学,2015,35(5):622-629.
[13]李霞,李晓兵,王宏,等.气候变化对中国北方温带草原植被的影响[J].北京师范大学学报:自然科学版,2006,42(6):618-623.
[14]于伯华,吕昌河,吕婷婷,等.青藏高原植被覆盖变化的地域分异特征[J].地理科学进展,2009,28(3):391-397.
[15]李文,曹文侠,徐长林,等.不同休牧模式对东祁连山高寒草甸草原植被特征变化的影响[J].西北植物学报,2014,34(11):2339-2345.
[16]袁文平,周广胜.标准化降水指标与Z指数在我国应用的对比分析[J].植物生态学报,2004,28(4):523-529.
[17]郭小芹,刘明春,钱莉,等.从Mann-Kendall特征看石羊河流域降水量的演变规律[J].干旱区地理,2011,33(4):593-599.
[18]罗军刚,解建仓,阮本清.基于熵权的水资源短缺风险模糊综合评价模型及应用[J].水利学报,2008,39(9):1092-1097,1104.