甘肃省季节性干旱综合指数的特征
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摘要
利用甘肃省71个气象站1971-2013年月降水量资料,借助Z指数构建了基于干旱频率、干旱强度的干旱综合指数评价指标,从季节性干旱以及季节性连旱着手分析了不同时间尺度的干旱特征。结果表明:研究区季节性趋旱程度(MK<0)和趋旱范围(DR,%)差异显著,其中春季陇东高原为-0.154(100%),重旱为灵台(-0.238*)、宁县(-0.180)、镇原(-0.178);夏季河西走廊为-0.081(73.7%),重旱为马鬃山(-0.271*)、安西(-0.255*)、敦煌(-0.171);秋季陇中高原为-0.017(50.9%),重旱在会宁(-0.186)。季节性干旱综合指数重旱时段显示,春季为1995年(陇东0.481),夏季为1997年(陇南0.405),秋季为1972年(甘南0.366),冬季为1998年(陇东0.586)和2009年(甘南0.449)。两季连旱高值区在白银、会宁、古浪、玛曲、灵台、永登、华池、静宁等地(>0.030),其中秋冬连旱最为严重(0.0274);三季连旱高值区为会宁、古浪、静宁、白银、永登等地(>0.020),其中夏秋冬连旱最为显著(0.017 5);四季连旱高值区为会宁、古浪、西峰、灵台、泾川等地(>0.015),即除了冬春夏秋连旱外,其余季节性连旱程度均比较显著(>0.009)。
Based on the annual and monthly precipitation of 71 meteorological stations in Gansu province from1971 to 2013,with the help of the Z index,the drought comprehensive index was constructed as the evaluation index based on the drought frequency and the drought intensity. The drought characteristics at different time scales were analyzed based on the seasonal drought and the seasonal continuous drought. The results showed significant difference in seasonal drought degree( MK<0) and drought range( %). In spring,the Longdong plateau is-0.154( 100%),and the heavy drought areas are Lingtai(-0.238*),Ningxian(-0.180),and Zhenyuan(-0.178); in summer,Gansu corridor is-0. 081( 73. 7%),and the heavy drought areas are Mazongshan(-0. 271*),Anxi(-0.255*) and Dunhuang(-0.171); in autumn,Longzhong plateau is-0.017( 50.9%),and the heavy drought area is Huining(-0. 186). The seasonal drought comprehensive index of heavy drought period showed spring in1995( Longdong,0.481),summer in 1997( Longnan,0. 405),autumn in 1972( Gannan,0. 366),winter in1998( Longdong,0.586) and in 2009( Gannan,0. 449). The high value areas of the continuous drought in two seasons were in Baiyin,Huining,Gulang,Maqu,Lingtai,Yongden,Huachi,Jingning,etc( >0.030),with the most severe drought in autumn and winter( 0.0274). The high value areas of the continuous drought in three seasons were Huining,Gulang,Jingning,Baiyin and Yongdeng,etc( >0.020),among which,the drought degree of summer-autumn-winter is severest( 0.017 5). The high value areas of the continuous drought in four seasons were Huining,Gulang,Xifeng,Lingtai,Jingchuan,etc( >0.015). All the seasonal continuous drought were significant( >0.009) except the winter-spring-summer-autumn drought.The research results of the seasonal drought comprehensive index can provide scientific basis for regional drought assessment and disaster prevention and reduction.
Based on the annual and monthly precipitation of 71 meteorological stations in Gansu province from1971 to 2013,with the help of the Z index,the drought comprehensive index was constructed as the evaluation index based on the drought frequency and the drought intensity. The drought characteristics at different time scales were analyzed based on the seasonal drought and the seasonal continuous drought. The results showed significant difference in seasonal drought degree( MK<0) and drought range( %). In spring,the Longdong plateau is-0.154( 100%),and the heavy drought areas are Lingtai(-0.238*),Ningxian(-0.180),and Zhenyuan(-0.178); in summer,Gansu corridor is-0. 081( 73. 7%),and the heavy drought areas are Mazongshan(-0. 271*),Anxi(-0.255*) and Dunhuang(-0.171); in autumn,Longzhong plateau is-0.017( 50.9%),and the heavy drought area is Huining(-0. 186). The seasonal drought comprehensive index of heavy drought period showed spring in1995( Longdong,0.481),summer in 1997( Longnan,0. 405),autumn in 1972( Gannan,0. 366),winter in1998( Longdong,0.586) and in 2009( Gannan,0. 449). The high value areas of the continuous drought in two seasons were in Baiyin,Huining,Gulang,Maqu,Lingtai,Yongden,Huachi,Jingning,etc( >0.030),with the most severe drought in autumn and winter( 0.0274). The high value areas of the continuous drought in three seasons were Huining,Gulang,Jingning,Baiyin and Yongdeng,etc( >0.020),among which,the drought degree of summer-autumn-winter is severest( 0.017 5). The high value areas of the continuous drought in four seasons were Huining,Gulang,Xifeng,Lingtai,Jingchuan,etc( >0.015). All the seasonal continuous drought were significant( >0.009) except the winter-spring-summer-autumn drought.The research results of the seasonal drought comprehensive index can provide scientific basis for regional drought assessment and disaster prevention and reduction.
引文
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[15]郭小芹,刘明春,钱莉,等.从Mann-Kendall特征看石羊河流域降水量的演变规律[J].干旱区地理,2011,33(4):593-599.
[16]郭小芹,罗永忠.河西东部日光温棚气象灾害保险理赔指数设计[J].灾害学,2017,32(1):137-141.
[17]罗军刚,解建仓,朊本清.基于熵权的水资源短缺风险模糊综合评判模型及应用[J].水利学报,2008,39(9):1092-1104.
[18]林婧婧,申恩青,刘德祥.甘肃省近58年春旱的气候特征及其对农业的影响[J].干旱地区农业研究,2010,28(1):233-237.
[19]黄晚华,隋月,杨晓光,等.基于连续无有效降水日数指标的中国南方作物干旱时空特征[J].农业工程学报,2014,30(4):125-135.
[2]陈方藻,刘江,李茂松.60年来中国农业干旱时空演替规律研究[J].西南师范大学学报(自然科学版),2011,36(4):111-114.
[3]叶敏,钱忠华,吴永萍.中国旱涝时空分布特征分析[J].物理学报,2013,62(13):139-203.
[4]Ashok K M,Vijia P S.Drought modeling-a review[J].Journal of Hydrology,2011,40(3):157-175.
[5]王明田,王翔,黄晚华.基于相对湿润度指数的西南地区季节性干旱时空分布特征[J].农业工程学报,2012,28(19):85-92.
[6]许月萍,张庆庆,楼章华,等.基于Copula方法的干旱历时和烈度的联合概率分析[J].天津大学学报,2010,43(10):928-932.
[7]王兆礼,李军,黄泽勤.基于改进帕默尔干旱指数的中国气象干旱时空演变分析[J].农业工程学报,2015,32(2):161-167.
[8]王劲松,黄玉霞,冯建英,等.径流量Z指数与Palmer指数对河西干旱的监测[J].应用气象学报,2009,20(4):471-477.
[9]杨晓华,杨小利.基于Z指数的陇东黄土高原干旱特征分析[J].干旱地区农业研究,2010,28(3):248-253.
[10]刘庚山,郭安红,安顺清,等.帕默尔干旱指标及其应用研究进展[J].自然灾害学报,2004,13(4):21-27.
[11]王劲松,郭江勇,周跃武,等.干旱指标研究的进展与展望[J].干旱区地理,2007,30(1):60-65.
[12]卫捷,马柱国.Palmer干旱指数、地表湿润指数与降水距平的比较[J].地理学报,2003,58(Z1):117-124.
[13]袁文平,周广胜.标准化降水指数与Z指数在我国应用的对比分析[J].植物生态学报,2004,28(4):523-529.
[14]杨世刚,杨德保,赵桂香,等.三种干旱指数在山西省干旱分析中的比较[J].高原气象,2011,30(5):1406-1414.
[15]郭小芹,刘明春,钱莉,等.从Mann-Kendall特征看石羊河流域降水量的演变规律[J].干旱区地理,2011,33(4):593-599.
[16]郭小芹,罗永忠.河西东部日光温棚气象灾害保险理赔指数设计[J].灾害学,2017,32(1):137-141.
[17]罗军刚,解建仓,朊本清.基于熵权的水资源短缺风险模糊综合评判模型及应用[J].水利学报,2008,39(9):1092-1104.
[18]林婧婧,申恩青,刘德祥.甘肃省近58年春旱的气候特征及其对农业的影响[J].干旱地区农业研究,2010,28(1):233-237.
[19]黄晚华,隋月,杨晓光,等.基于连续无有效降水日数指标的中国南方作物干旱时空特征[J].农业工程学报,2014,30(4):125-135.