农业氮污染:责任与控制
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摘要
本文基于WIOD提供的世界投入产出表,利用MRIO模型测算了1995—2015年全球N_2O污染总量和分布格局,重点分析了中国供给侧和需求侧N_2O排放的国际占比、国别流向和部门分布,并对其构成进行分解;通过引入贸易隐含N_2O排放差额的概念,分析了不同责任原则下的排放差异,并从中间产品和最终产品视角初步解释了造成这种差异的原因;应用SDA"两级分解平均法"研究了N_2O排放增长的主要驱动因素。研究发现:全球N_2O排放增长率虽不大,但其所造成的潜在温室效应已超过2014年和2015年全球CO_2排放量之和,且大多数发展中国家仍呈持续增长态势,其中,农业部门是N_2O排放主体。中国供给侧和需求侧N_2O排放均位居全球第一位,虽然内需排放占主导,但外需排放比重在不断增加。进一步地,农产品最终需求规模的扩张和前向国际产业关联效应的增强是N_2O排放增长的最主要驱动因素;而抑制N_2O排放增长的最主要因素是优化农业氮排放强度及其最终需求产品结构。
Based on the world input-output table provided by WIOD,this paper estimated the current situation of N_2O pollution in global from 1995 to 2015 by using MRIO model,respectively analyzed the international proportion,country flow and sector distribution of N_2O emissions from the supply side and demand side in China,and further decomposed its constitution. By introducing the concept of embodied N_2O emission gap in the trade,the emission differences under different liability principles are analyzed,and the causes of such differences are explained from the perspective of intermediate products and final products. Finally,the driving factors of N_2O emission growth were studied by using SDA"two-stage decomposition average method". The research found that despite of the low growth rate of the global N_2O emissions,the potential greenhouse effect caused by the N20 emissions was larger than the effect caused by the sum of global C_2O emissions in 2014 and 2015. Most of the developing countries are still showing the tendency of such sustained growth. The N_2O emissions from China's supply side and demand side are ranked first in the world. Domestic demand dominates the emissions,but the proportion of the emissions led by foreign demand is increasing; the agricultural sector accounts for the main source of N_2O emissions from the supply side and the demand side. Furthermore,the expansion of the final demand scale and the enhancement of the forward international industrial correlation effect of agricultural sector are the main impetuses of the N_2O emission growth,while the primary factors that inhibit the growth of N_2O emission are the optimization of both nitrogen emission intensity and final demand structure of agricultural sector.
Based on the world input-output table provided by WIOD,this paper estimated the current situation of N_2O pollution in global from 1995 to 2015 by using MRIO model,respectively analyzed the international proportion,country flow and sector distribution of N_2O emissions from the supply side and demand side in China,and further decomposed its constitution. By introducing the concept of embodied N_2O emission gap in the trade,the emission differences under different liability principles are analyzed,and the causes of such differences are explained from the perspective of intermediate products and final products. Finally,the driving factors of N_2O emission growth were studied by using SDA"two-stage decomposition average method". The research found that despite of the low growth rate of the global N_2O emissions,the potential greenhouse effect caused by the N20 emissions was larger than the effect caused by the sum of global C_2O emissions in 2014 and 2015. Most of the developing countries are still showing the tendency of such sustained growth. The N_2O emissions from China's supply side and demand side are ranked first in the world. Domestic demand dominates the emissions,but the proportion of the emissions led by foreign demand is increasing; the agricultural sector accounts for the main source of N_2O emissions from the supply side and the demand side. Furthermore,the expansion of the final demand scale and the enhancement of the forward international industrial correlation effect of agricultural sector are the main impetuses of the N_2O emission growth,while the primary factors that inhibit the growth of N_2O emission are the optimization of both nitrogen emission intensity and final demand structure of agricultural sector.
引文
1.Bastianoni S.,Pulselli F.M.,Tiezzi E..The problem of assigning responsibility for greenhouse gas emissions.Ecological Economics,2004,49(3):253~257
2.Bodirsky B.L.,Popp A.,Lotze-Campen H.,et al..Reactive nitrogen requirements to feed the world in 2050 and potential to mitigate nitrogen pollution.Nature Communications,2014,(5):3858
3.Bodirsky B.L.,Popp A.,Weindl I.,et al..N2O emissions from the global agricultural nitrogen cycle-current state and future scenarios.Biogeosciences,2012,(9):4169~4197
4.Ferng,J.J.Allocating the responsibility of CO 2,over-emissions from the perspectives of benefit principle and ecological deficit.Ecological Economics,2003,46(1):121~141
5.Hoang V.N.,Alauddin M..Assessing the eco-environmental performance of agricultural production in OECD countries:the use of nitrogen flows and balance.Nutr Cycl Agroecosyst,2010,(87):353~368
6.Iqbal,M.M.,Goheer M.A.Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Agro-Ecosystems and Their Contribution to Environmental Change in the Indus Basin of Pakistan.Advances in Atmospheric Sciences,2008,25(6):1043~1052
7.Kanter,D.,Davidson E.,Alcamo J.,et al..Drawing Down N2O to Protect Climate and the Ozone Layer:A UNEP Synthesis Report.2013
8.Kondo K.CO2 Emission inJapan:Influences of Imports and Exports.Applied Energy,1998,59
9.Koopman R.,Powers W.M.,Wang Z.,et al..Wei.Give Credit Where Credit is Due:Tracing Value Added in Global Production Chains.Ssrn Electronic Journal,2011
10.Leip A.,Britz W.,Weiss F.,et al.Farm,land,and soil nitrogen budgets for agriculture in Europe calculated with CAPRI.Environmental Pollution,2011,(159):3243~3253
11.Neufeldt H.,Schafer M.,Angenendt E.,Li C.,et al..Disaggregated greenhouse gas emission inventories from agriculture via a coupled economic-ecosystem model..Agriculture Ecosystems&Environment,2006,112(2):233~240
12.Oita A.,Malik A.,Kanemoto K.,Geschke A.,et al..Substantial nitrogen pollution embedded in international trade.Nature Geoscience,2016,9
13.Pan J.,Phillips J.,and Chen Y..China’s balance of emissions embodied in trade:approaches to measurement and allocating international responsibility.Oxford Review of Economic Policy,2008,24(2):354~376
14.Perlman J.,Hijmans R.J.,and Horwath W.R..A metamodelling approach to estimate global N2O,emissions from agricultural soils.Global E-cology&Biogeography,2014,23(8):912~924
15.Peters G.P.From production-based to consumption-based national emissioninventories.Ecological Economics,2008,65(1):13~23
16.Rahman J.,and Zhao T..Export Performance in Europe:What Do We Know from Supply Links?.Social Science Electronic Publishing,2013,13(62)
17.Renata G.,Nacer B..Evaluation of phosphorus and nitrogen balances as an indicator for the impact of agriculture on environment:A comparison of a case study from Poland and Mississippi US.Agricultural Sciences,2012,3(2):317~329
18.Rodrigues J.,Domingos T..Consumer and producer environmental responsibility:Comparing two approaches.Ecological Economics,2008,66(2~3):533~546
19.Skiba U.,and Manning A.J..UK emissions of the greenhouse gas nitrous oxide.Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B Biological Sciences,2012,367(1593):1175~1185
20.Timmer M P.The World Input-Output Database(WIOD):Contents,Sources and Methods.Iide Discussion Papers,2012
21.Wiedmann T.A review of recent multi-region input-output models used for consumption-based emission and resource accounting.Ecological Economics,2009,69(2):211~222
22.Zheng X,Fu C.,Xu X.,Yan X.,et al..The Asian nitrogen cycle case study..Ambio A Journal of the Human Environment,2016,31(2):79~87
23.陈迎,潘家华,谢来辉.中国外贸进出口商品中的内涵能源及其政策含义.经济研究,2008(7):11~25
24.樊纲,苏铭,曹静.最终消费与碳减排责任的经济学分析.经济研究,2010(1):50~55
25.樊茂清,黄薇.基于全球价值链分解的中国贸易产业结构演进研究.世界经济,2014(2):50~70
26.李长生,肖向明,邱建军.中国农田的温室气体排放.第四纪研究,2003,23(5):493~503
27.李书田,金继运.中国不同区域农田养分输入、输出与平衡.中国农业科学,2011,44(20):4207~4229
28.李迎春.中国农业氧化亚氮排放及减排潜力研究.中国农业科学院博士学位论文,2009
29.彭水军,张文城,孙传旺.中国生产侧和消费侧碳排放量测算及影响因素研究.经济研究,2015(1):168~182
30.卫瑞,张文城,张少军.全球价值链视角下中国增加值出口及其影响因素.数量经济技术经济研究,2015(7):3~20
31.张强,巨晓棠,张福锁.应用修正的IPCC2006方法对中国农田N2O排放量重新估算.中国生态农业学报,2010,18(1):7~13
32.张文城,彭水军.南北国家的消费侧与生产侧资源环境负荷比较分析.世界经济,2014(8):126~150
33.张友国.中国贸易含碳量及其影响因素---基于(进口)非竞争型投入-产出表的分析.经济学(季刊),2010,9(4):1287~1310
34.周涛,王云鹏,王芳等.广东省农业氮足迹分析.中国环境科学2014,34(9):2430~2438
(1)大气中的氮污染主要是氮氧化物和氮气,而氮氧化物是引起大气污染的主要污染物,包括NOx和N2O,鉴于N2O污染既是主要温室气体之一,也是加剧臭氧消耗的重要原因,因此本文用N2O污染来描述氮污染
(1)限于篇幅原因,本文删掉了所构建的数理模型及其详细分解过程,如有需要可联系作者
(1)参考(Koopman等,2010;樊茂请等,2014)的研究
(2)解释等同于供给侧排放
(1)参见Rahman等(2013)与Timmer(2012)关于WIOD的构建说明
(2)按照WIOD的划分,ACK代表澳大利亚、加拿大和韩国等3个国家;BRIIT代表巴西、俄罗斯、印度、印尼和中国台湾等五个区域;其他区域是指除了表中所列国家(地区)以外的区域。ROW主要由发展中经济体构成
(3)供需排放比值等于供给侧排放量除以需求侧排放量。美国从1995年的0.85下降到2015年的0.61,欧盟从0.84下降到0.58,ACK从0.89下降到0.65,而日本从0.29下降到0.20
(1)这和已有研究结果一致,农业是人为N2O气体的主要排放源,其他主要的N2O排放源包括工业和化石燃料燃烧、生物质燃烧和废水。IPCC(2007)估计全球范围内农业排放N2O占由于人类活动造成的N2O排放总量的60%,EEA(2010)估计美国与人类活动有关的N2O排放中,70%来自农业生产,欧盟则为75%
(1)作者计算了1995-2001年、2001-2005年、2005-2009年和2001-2009年各部门N2O排放的结构分解,限于篇幅,测算结果未予详细报告,感兴趣的读者可向作者索取。下同
(1)由于篇幅原因,此处未列出更多表格数据
(1)前向国际产业关联效应包括由国外最终需求且由国内产业关联变化所引致的N2O排放。因为对中间产品的投入变化会引起总产出变化,所以总产出变化包括内需变化和外需变化,这种变化引起N2O排放的变化,因此,国内产业关联效应包括由内需和外需引起的N2O排放变化
(1)协议于巴黎气候大会上达成,其框架下的国家自主贡献涵盖了减排、适应、资金、技术转让等内容
2.Bodirsky B.L.,Popp A.,Lotze-Campen H.,et al..Reactive nitrogen requirements to feed the world in 2050 and potential to mitigate nitrogen pollution.Nature Communications,2014,(5):3858
3.Bodirsky B.L.,Popp A.,Weindl I.,et al..N2O emissions from the global agricultural nitrogen cycle-current state and future scenarios.Biogeosciences,2012,(9):4169~4197
4.Ferng,J.J.Allocating the responsibility of CO 2,over-emissions from the perspectives of benefit principle and ecological deficit.Ecological Economics,2003,46(1):121~141
5.Hoang V.N.,Alauddin M..Assessing the eco-environmental performance of agricultural production in OECD countries:the use of nitrogen flows and balance.Nutr Cycl Agroecosyst,2010,(87):353~368
6.Iqbal,M.M.,Goheer M.A.Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Agro-Ecosystems and Their Contribution to Environmental Change in the Indus Basin of Pakistan.Advances in Atmospheric Sciences,2008,25(6):1043~1052
7.Kanter,D.,Davidson E.,Alcamo J.,et al..Drawing Down N2O to Protect Climate and the Ozone Layer:A UNEP Synthesis Report.2013
8.Kondo K.CO2 Emission inJapan:Influences of Imports and Exports.Applied Energy,1998,59
9.Koopman R.,Powers W.M.,Wang Z.,et al..Wei.Give Credit Where Credit is Due:Tracing Value Added in Global Production Chains.Ssrn Electronic Journal,2011
10.Leip A.,Britz W.,Weiss F.,et al.Farm,land,and soil nitrogen budgets for agriculture in Europe calculated with CAPRI.Environmental Pollution,2011,(159):3243~3253
11.Neufeldt H.,Schafer M.,Angenendt E.,Li C.,et al..Disaggregated greenhouse gas emission inventories from agriculture via a coupled economic-ecosystem model..Agriculture Ecosystems&Environment,2006,112(2):233~240
12.Oita A.,Malik A.,Kanemoto K.,Geschke A.,et al..Substantial nitrogen pollution embedded in international trade.Nature Geoscience,2016,9
13.Pan J.,Phillips J.,and Chen Y..China’s balance of emissions embodied in trade:approaches to measurement and allocating international responsibility.Oxford Review of Economic Policy,2008,24(2):354~376
14.Perlman J.,Hijmans R.J.,and Horwath W.R..A metamodelling approach to estimate global N2O,emissions from agricultural soils.Global E-cology&Biogeography,2014,23(8):912~924
15.Peters G.P.From production-based to consumption-based national emissioninventories.Ecological Economics,2008,65(1):13~23
16.Rahman J.,and Zhao T..Export Performance in Europe:What Do We Know from Supply Links?.Social Science Electronic Publishing,2013,13(62)
17.Renata G.,Nacer B..Evaluation of phosphorus and nitrogen balances as an indicator for the impact of agriculture on environment:A comparison of a case study from Poland and Mississippi US.Agricultural Sciences,2012,3(2):317~329
18.Rodrigues J.,Domingos T..Consumer and producer environmental responsibility:Comparing two approaches.Ecological Economics,2008,66(2~3):533~546
19.Skiba U.,and Manning A.J..UK emissions of the greenhouse gas nitrous oxide.Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B Biological Sciences,2012,367(1593):1175~1185
20.Timmer M P.The World Input-Output Database(WIOD):Contents,Sources and Methods.Iide Discussion Papers,2012
21.Wiedmann T.A review of recent multi-region input-output models used for consumption-based emission and resource accounting.Ecological Economics,2009,69(2):211~222
22.Zheng X,Fu C.,Xu X.,Yan X.,et al..The Asian nitrogen cycle case study..Ambio A Journal of the Human Environment,2016,31(2):79~87
23.陈迎,潘家华,谢来辉.中国外贸进出口商品中的内涵能源及其政策含义.经济研究,2008(7):11~25
24.樊纲,苏铭,曹静.最终消费与碳减排责任的经济学分析.经济研究,2010(1):50~55
25.樊茂清,黄薇.基于全球价值链分解的中国贸易产业结构演进研究.世界经济,2014(2):50~70
26.李长生,肖向明,邱建军.中国农田的温室气体排放.第四纪研究,2003,23(5):493~503
27.李书田,金继运.中国不同区域农田养分输入、输出与平衡.中国农业科学,2011,44(20):4207~4229
28.李迎春.中国农业氧化亚氮排放及减排潜力研究.中国农业科学院博士学位论文,2009
29.彭水军,张文城,孙传旺.中国生产侧和消费侧碳排放量测算及影响因素研究.经济研究,2015(1):168~182
30.卫瑞,张文城,张少军.全球价值链视角下中国增加值出口及其影响因素.数量经济技术经济研究,2015(7):3~20
31.张强,巨晓棠,张福锁.应用修正的IPCC2006方法对中国农田N2O排放量重新估算.中国生态农业学报,2010,18(1):7~13
32.张文城,彭水军.南北国家的消费侧与生产侧资源环境负荷比较分析.世界经济,2014(8):126~150
33.张友国.中国贸易含碳量及其影响因素---基于(进口)非竞争型投入-产出表的分析.经济学(季刊),2010,9(4):1287~1310
34.周涛,王云鹏,王芳等.广东省农业氮足迹分析.中国环境科学2014,34(9):2430~2438
(1)大气中的氮污染主要是氮氧化物和氮气,而氮氧化物是引起大气污染的主要污染物,包括NOx和N2O,鉴于N2O污染既是主要温室气体之一,也是加剧臭氧消耗的重要原因,因此本文用N2O污染来描述氮污染
(1)限于篇幅原因,本文删掉了所构建的数理模型及其详细分解过程,如有需要可联系作者
(1)参考(Koopman等,2010;樊茂请等,2014)的研究
(2)解释等同于供给侧排放
(1)参见Rahman等(2013)与Timmer(2012)关于WIOD的构建说明
(2)按照WIOD的划分,ACK代表澳大利亚、加拿大和韩国等3个国家;BRIIT代表巴西、俄罗斯、印度、印尼和中国台湾等五个区域;其他区域是指除了表中所列国家(地区)以外的区域。ROW主要由发展中经济体构成
(3)供需排放比值等于供给侧排放量除以需求侧排放量。美国从1995年的0.85下降到2015年的0.61,欧盟从0.84下降到0.58,ACK从0.89下降到0.65,而日本从0.29下降到0.20
(1)这和已有研究结果一致,农业是人为N2O气体的主要排放源,其他主要的N2O排放源包括工业和化石燃料燃烧、生物质燃烧和废水。IPCC(2007)估计全球范围内农业排放N2O占由于人类活动造成的N2O排放总量的60%,EEA(2010)估计美国与人类活动有关的N2O排放中,70%来自农业生产,欧盟则为75%
(1)作者计算了1995-2001年、2001-2005年、2005-2009年和2001-2009年各部门N2O排放的结构分解,限于篇幅,测算结果未予详细报告,感兴趣的读者可向作者索取。下同
(1)由于篇幅原因,此处未列出更多表格数据
(1)前向国际产业关联效应包括由国外最终需求且由国内产业关联变化所引致的N2O排放。因为对中间产品的投入变化会引起总产出变化,所以总产出变化包括内需变化和外需变化,这种变化引起N2O排放的变化,因此,国内产业关联效应包括由内需和外需引起的N2O排放变化
(1)协议于巴黎气候大会上达成,其框架下的国家自主贡献涵盖了减排、适应、资金、技术转让等内容