结合异年倍九律鉴别前震类型
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摘要
鉴别前震的方法甚多。该文主要运用异年倍九法(或称异年倍九律)帮助鉴别前震。鉴别的方式是在欲鉴别的小震或小震群发生地区寻找组成异年倍九律的地震,其某个第九天日期若与该小震或小震群发生日期相重或相近,则认为这个小震或小震群可能是前震。文中列举了2010年玉树大震前的小震和2008年汶川大震前都江堰小震群的实例,皆被鉴别为可能是前震。
Many methods have been developed to distinguish earthquake foreshock. In this study, we used the rhythm of nine multiplied days in different years to distinguish foreshocks. In this method, we look for earthquakes that conform to the rhythm of nine multiplied days in different years in regions where a small earthquake or earthquake swarm occurred. If one day among the nine in different years occurred close to the day the small earthquake or earthquake swarm occurred, we consider that this small earthquake or earthquake swarm may have been a foreshock. Two examples were identified: the small earthquake before the Yushu M_S7.1 earthquake in 2010 and the small earthquake swarm before the Wenchuan M_S8.0 earthquake in 2008, both of which could possibly have been foreshocks.
Many methods have been developed to distinguish earthquake foreshock. In this study, we used the rhythm of nine multiplied days in different years to distinguish foreshocks. In this method, we look for earthquakes that conform to the rhythm of nine multiplied days in different years in regions where a small earthquake or earthquake swarm occurred. If one day among the nine in different years occurred close to the day the small earthquake or earthquake swarm occurred, we consider that this small earthquake or earthquake swarm may have been a foreshock. Two examples were identified: the small earthquake before the Yushu M_S7.1 earthquake in 2010 and the small earthquake swarm before the Wenchuan M_S8.0 earthquake in 2008, both of which could possibly have been foreshocks.
引文
[1] 郭增建,秦保燕,徐文耀,等.震源孕育模式的初步讨论[J].地球物理学报,1973,16(1):43-48.GUO Zengjian,QIN Baoyan,XU Wenyao,et al.Preliminary Study on a Model for the Development of the Focus of an Earthquake[J].Acta Geophysica Sinica,1973,16(1):43-48.
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[3] 兰州地震大队.用地震资料推断近期地震危险区[J].地震战线,1971(8):14-18.Lanzhou Seismological Brigade.Deducing the Forthcoming Earthquake Risk Region by Seismological Data[J].Earthquake Frontier,1971(8):14-18.
[4] 杨立明.汶川地震临震地脉动记录特殊频率波动现象及其重现性初步研究[J].国际地震动态,2009(1):14-19.YANG Liming.Preliminary Study on the Tremors with Special Frequency Recorded by Seismograph before Wenchuan Earthquake and Its Charaters[J].Recent Developments in World Seismology,2009(1):14-19.
[5] 杨立明,梅秀苹,姜佳佳,等.前震或广义前震识别的频谱偏移法及其应用研究[J].中国地震,2015,31(2):188-197.YANG Liming,MEI Xiuping,JIANG Jiajia,et al.Research on Spectrum Deviation Method of Identification of Foreshocks or Generalized Foreshocks and Its Application[J].Earthquake Research in China,2015,31(2):188-197.
[6] 吴开统,岳明生,武宦英,等.海城地震序列的特征[J].地球物理学报,1976,19(2):95-109.WU Kaitong,YUE Mingsheng,WU Huanying,et al.Certain Characteristics of Haicheng Earthquake (M=7.3) Sequence[J].Chinese Journal of Sinica,1976,19(2):95-109.
[7] 孙加林.前兆震群中出现的高b值及其可能机制[J].西北地震学报,1980,2(4):19-24.SUN Jialin.High b value in the Precursory Earthquake Swarm and Its Possible Mechanism[J].Northwestern Seismological Journal,1980,2(4):19-24.
[8] 秦保燕,姚立珣,李亚荣.大震前震源外围区高b值震群产生的一种物理机制[J].地震,1983,3(6):6-11,36.QIN Baoyan,YAO Lixun,LI Yarong.A Physical Mechanism of High b-valued Earthquake Swarms in the Peripheral Region of the Source before the Earthquake[J].Earthquake,1983,3(6):6-11,36.
[9] 郭增建,秦保燕.大震发生日期的预报:异年倍九律[J].西北地震学报,1986,8(2):96-105.GUO Zengjian,QIN Baoyan.The Predication for the Date of the Occurrence of Large Earthquakes:The Multiplied Nine-Day Regularity in Different Years[J].Northwestern Seismological Journal,1986,8(2):96-105.
[10] 郭安宁,郭增建.5·12汶川地震预报回顾[M].西安:西安地图出版社,2009.GUO Anning,GUO Zengjian.Review of the 5·12 Wenchuan Earthquake Prediction[M].Xi'an:Xi'an Map Press,2009.
[11] 郭增建,秦保燕.灾害物理学[M].西安:陕西科技出版社,1989.GUO Zengjian,QIN Baoyan.Disaster Physics[M].Xi'an:Shaanxi Science and Technology Press,1989.
[12] 刘正荣.地震预报[M].修定版.北京:地震出版社,2008.LIU Zhengrong.Earthquake Prediction[M].Revised Edition.Beijing:Seismological Press,2008.
[13] 倪四道,王伟涛,李丽.2010年4月14日玉树地震:一个有前震的破坏性地震[J].中国科学,2010,40(5):535-537.NI Sidao,WANG Weitao,LI Li.Yushu Earthquake on April 14,2010:A Destructive Earthquake with Pre-seismic Earthquake[J].Chinese Science,2010,40(5):535-537.
[14] 郭增建,陈鑫连.地震对策[M].北京:地震出版社,1986.GUO Zengjian,CHEN Xinlian.Earthquake Countermeasures[M].Beijing:Seismological Press,1986.
[15] 陈颙,刘杰,杨文.前震序列的图像特征研究[J].中国地震,2015,31(2):177-187.CHEN Yong,LIU Jie,YANG Wen.Pattern Characteristics of Foreshock Sequences[J].Earthquake Research in China,2015,31(2):177-187.
[16] 郭安宁,郭增建,任栋,等.磁暴二倍法与异年倍九法相配对强震时间短临预测的震例验证研究[J].地震工程学报,2015,37(B12):152-156.GUO Anning,GUO Zengjian,REN Dong,et al.Case Study of Impending Strong Earthquake Prediction Combining the Rhythm of Multiplied Nine Days in Different Years and Double Magnetic Storm Time Method[J].Northwestern Seismological Journal,2015,37(B12):152-156.
[2] 金严,赵毅,陈隅,等.辽宁省海城地震前震震源错动方式的一个特点[J].地球物理学报,1976,19(3):156-164.JIN Yan,ZHAO Yi,CHEN Yong,et al.A Characteristic Feature of the Dislocation Model of Foreshocks of the Haicheng Earthquake,Liaoning Province[J].Acta Geophysica Sinica,1976,19(3):156-164.
[3] 兰州地震大队.用地震资料推断近期地震危险区[J].地震战线,1971(8):14-18.Lanzhou Seismological Brigade.Deducing the Forthcoming Earthquake Risk Region by Seismological Data[J].Earthquake Frontier,1971(8):14-18.
[4] 杨立明.汶川地震临震地脉动记录特殊频率波动现象及其重现性初步研究[J].国际地震动态,2009(1):14-19.YANG Liming.Preliminary Study on the Tremors with Special Frequency Recorded by Seismograph before Wenchuan Earthquake and Its Charaters[J].Recent Developments in World Seismology,2009(1):14-19.
[5] 杨立明,梅秀苹,姜佳佳,等.前震或广义前震识别的频谱偏移法及其应用研究[J].中国地震,2015,31(2):188-197.YANG Liming,MEI Xiuping,JIANG Jiajia,et al.Research on Spectrum Deviation Method of Identification of Foreshocks or Generalized Foreshocks and Its Application[J].Earthquake Research in China,2015,31(2):188-197.
[6] 吴开统,岳明生,武宦英,等.海城地震序列的特征[J].地球物理学报,1976,19(2):95-109.WU Kaitong,YUE Mingsheng,WU Huanying,et al.Certain Characteristics of Haicheng Earthquake (M=7.3) Sequence[J].Chinese Journal of Sinica,1976,19(2):95-109.
[7] 孙加林.前兆震群中出现的高b值及其可能机制[J].西北地震学报,1980,2(4):19-24.SUN Jialin.High b value in the Precursory Earthquake Swarm and Its Possible Mechanism[J].Northwestern Seismological Journal,1980,2(4):19-24.
[8] 秦保燕,姚立珣,李亚荣.大震前震源外围区高b值震群产生的一种物理机制[J].地震,1983,3(6):6-11,36.QIN Baoyan,YAO Lixun,LI Yarong.A Physical Mechanism of High b-valued Earthquake Swarms in the Peripheral Region of the Source before the Earthquake[J].Earthquake,1983,3(6):6-11,36.
[9] 郭增建,秦保燕.大震发生日期的预报:异年倍九律[J].西北地震学报,1986,8(2):96-105.GUO Zengjian,QIN Baoyan.The Predication for the Date of the Occurrence of Large Earthquakes:The Multiplied Nine-Day Regularity in Different Years[J].Northwestern Seismological Journal,1986,8(2):96-105.
[10] 郭安宁,郭增建.5·12汶川地震预报回顾[M].西安:西安地图出版社,2009.GUO Anning,GUO Zengjian.Review of the 5·12 Wenchuan Earthquake Prediction[M].Xi'an:Xi'an Map Press,2009.
[11] 郭增建,秦保燕.灾害物理学[M].西安:陕西科技出版社,1989.GUO Zengjian,QIN Baoyan.Disaster Physics[M].Xi'an:Shaanxi Science and Technology Press,1989.
[12] 刘正荣.地震预报[M].修定版.北京:地震出版社,2008.LIU Zhengrong.Earthquake Prediction[M].Revised Edition.Beijing:Seismological Press,2008.
[13] 倪四道,王伟涛,李丽.2010年4月14日玉树地震:一个有前震的破坏性地震[J].中国科学,2010,40(5):535-537.NI Sidao,WANG Weitao,LI Li.Yushu Earthquake on April 14,2010:A Destructive Earthquake with Pre-seismic Earthquake[J].Chinese Science,2010,40(5):535-537.
[14] 郭增建,陈鑫连.地震对策[M].北京:地震出版社,1986.GUO Zengjian,CHEN Xinlian.Earthquake Countermeasures[M].Beijing:Seismological Press,1986.
[15] 陈颙,刘杰,杨文.前震序列的图像特征研究[J].中国地震,2015,31(2):177-187.CHEN Yong,LIU Jie,YANG Wen.Pattern Characteristics of Foreshock Sequences[J].Earthquake Research in China,2015,31(2):177-187.
[16] 郭安宁,郭增建,任栋,等.磁暴二倍法与异年倍九法相配对强震时间短临预测的震例验证研究[J].地震工程学报,2015,37(B12):152-156.GUO Anning,GUO Zengjian,REN Dong,et al.Case Study of Impending Strong Earthquake Prediction Combining the Rhythm of Multiplied Nine Days in Different Years and Double Magnetic Storm Time Method[J].Northwestern Seismological Journal,2015,37(B12):152-156.
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