子流域划分对HSPF模型径流模拟效果的影响
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摘要
在水文水质模拟过程中,子流域划分数量直接影响模拟结果的精确度,确定最佳子流域划分方案对提高模拟精确度至关重要。基于PEST-HSPF模型,以中河流域为例,在相同参数及不同参数条件下,采用PEST自动校准方法,判断子流域划分数量对流量模拟精确度的影响。结果表明,在相同水文参数下,子流域划分数量变化时,模拟流量的纳什系数(NSE)和可决系数(R2)在0.65~0.78之间波动,其中子流域划分数量在10~20之间对模拟结果的精确度影响最大;在不同水文参数下,径流模拟结果的NSE与R2随子流域划分数量的增加先增大后减小,相对误差(RE)在子流域划分数量介于1~10之间时急剧下降后趋于稳定;子流域划分对HSPF水文模拟效果影响显著,表现出阈值效应,当划分数量超出阈值范围时,径流模拟精度均会受到很大影响。
In the process of hydrological and water quality's simulation,the number of sub-watersheds directly affects the accuracy of the simulation results.How to determine the optimal partition scheme is very important to improve the simulation accuracy.Based on the PEST-HSPF model,the PEST automatic calibration method was used to determine the influence of the number of sub-watersheds on the accuracy of flow simulation under the same parameters and different parameters.The result shows that under the same hydrological parameters,the Nash coefficient(NSE)and the resolvable coefficient(R2)of the simulated flow fluctuate between 0.65 and 0.78,and the number of sub-watersheds between 10 and 20 has greatest impact on the accuracy for the simulation results.Under different hydrological parameters,the NSE and R2 of the runoff simulation results increase firstly and then decrease with the increase of the number of sub-watersheds,and the relative error(RE)tends to be stable after the sharp decrease of sub-watersheds 1-10.Sub-watershed division has a significant impact on the hydrological simulation of HSPF and shows a threshold effect.When the number of partitions exceeds the threshold range,the accuracy of runoff simulation will be affected greatly.
In the process of hydrological and water quality's simulation,the number of sub-watersheds directly affects the accuracy of the simulation results.How to determine the optimal partition scheme is very important to improve the simulation accuracy.Based on the PEST-HSPF model,the PEST automatic calibration method was used to determine the influence of the number of sub-watersheds on the accuracy of flow simulation under the same parameters and different parameters.The result shows that under the same hydrological parameters,the Nash coefficient(NSE)and the resolvable coefficient(R2)of the simulated flow fluctuate between 0.65 and 0.78,and the number of sub-watersheds between 10 and 20 has greatest impact on the accuracy for the simulation results.Under different hydrological parameters,the NSE and R2 of the runoff simulation results increase firstly and then decrease with the increase of the number of sub-watersheds,and the relative error(RE)tends to be stable after the sharp decrease of sub-watersheds 1-10.Sub-watershed division has a significant impact on the hydrological simulation of HSPF and shows a threshold effect.When the number of partitions exceeds the threshold range,the accuracy of runoff simulation will be affected greatly.
引文
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[2]Mamillapalli S.Effect of Spatial Variability on River Basin Stream Flow Modeling[R].Third International Conference/Workshop on Integrating GIS and Environmental Modeling,Santa Fe,New Mexico,1996.
[3]郝芳华,张雪松,程红光,等.分布式水文模型亚流域合理划分水平刍议[J].水土保持学报,2003,17(4):75-78.
[4]胡连伍,王学军,罗定贵,等.不同子流域划分对流域径流、泥沙、营养物模拟的影响——丰乐河流域个例研究[J].水科学进展,2007,18(2):235-240.
[5]高伟,周丰,董延军,等.基于PEST的HSPF水文模型多目标自动校准研究[J].自然资源学报,2014,29(5):855-867.
[6] Liu Z,Tong S T Y.Using HSPF to Model the Hydrologic and Water Quality Impacts of Riparian Land-Use Change in a Small Watershed[J].Journal of Environmental Informatics,2011,17(1):1-14.
[7]李燕,李兆富,席庆.HSPF径流模拟参数敏感性分析与模型适用性研究[J].环境科学,2013,34(6):2 139-2 145.
[8]程晓光,张静,宫辉力.半干旱半湿润地区HSPF模型水文模拟及参数不确定性研究[J].环境科学学报,2014,34(12):3 179-3 187.
[9]李燕.基于HSPF模型的水文水质过程模拟研究——以中田河流域为例[D].南京:南京农业大学,2013.
[10]Bicknell B R,Imhoff J C,Kittle J L,et al.Hydrological Simulation Program-Fortran:User's Manual for Version 11[Z].1997.