湖南持续性区域暴雨气候特征及暴雨落区分型
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摘要
基于1961—2016年湖南88个台站逐日降水及NCEP再分析数据,利用突变分析、聚类分析、合成分析等方法,分析了湖南持续性区域暴雨的气候特征,并对暴雨落区进行了分型。结果表明,近56年湖南持续性区域暴雨过程年平均出现2次,最长持续日数为5天;夏季发生次数最多占73%,冬季未发生,出现较多的月份5,6,7和8月分别占16%,38%,20%和14%;持续性区域暴雨过程次数在1993年发生了均值突变,年平均过程次数从1961—1992年的1.4次增加至1993—2016年的2.8次。持续性区域暴雨过程年均发生0.9次以上的区域主要分布在湘中以北,湘中以北较湘南年均次数偏多。持续性区域暴雨强度全省区域平均值为82.5 mm·d-1,大于85 mm·d-1的台站主要分布在湘西北及湘东南。暴雨日强降水落区可分为4类空间分布型即湘西北型、湘中偏北型、湘中偏南型及湘东南型,4类空间分布型的累计暴雨日数占总持续性区域暴雨日数的百分比依次为25.6%,30.1%,21%和18.4%,湘西北型与湘东南型的降水强度较湘中偏北型与湘中偏南型的降水强度大,且强降水落区相对更集中;对应4类暴雨落区分型合成的925 h Pa风场切变及水汽辐合大值区的位置、走向与4类暴雨空间分布型的强降水落区基本吻合,对强降水的落区有较好指示性。
The frequency of extreme heavy precipitation events over Hunan is increasing under the background of global warming.Based on the daily precipitation data collected from 88 stations over Hunan and NCEP reanalysis data during 1961—2016,the climate characteristics of regional persistent heavy rain and heavy rainfall pattern over Hunan were analyzed by using the abrupt change analysis,clustering analysis,composite analysis and so on.The results shows that the regional persistent heavy rain during the past 56-year over Hunan has occurred annual average 2 times,and the maximum number of consecutive days is 5.The percent of regional persistent heavy rain is 73% and 0% in summer and winter,and is 16%,38%,20% and 14% in May,June,July and August respectively.Annual regional persistent heavy rain process times changed from 1.4 in 1961—1992 to 2.8 in1993—2016,and 1993 is the mutational year.The regional persistent heavy rain mainly occurred more than 0.9 times a year over the north of central Hunan,and the frequency of regional persistent heavy rain over north of central Hunan was significantly more than that over southern Hunan.The regional persistent heavy rain intensity averaged over Hunan is 82.5 mm·d-1,which is 7.7 mm·d-1 bigger than that of non-sustained regional heavy rain,and the stations of regional heavy rain intensity greater than 85 mm·d-1 are mainly distributed over northwest and southeast Hunan.The heavy rainfall can be divided into four spatial distribution pattern:northwestern,north-central,south-central and southeastern type,and the percent of the four heavy rainfall pattern days to the total heavy rainfall days is 25.6%,30.1%,21% and 18.4%,respectively.The precipitation intensity of the northwestern type and southeastern type was higher than that of the north-central type and south-central type,and the heavy rainfall area of the former two types was more concentrated.The location and direction of synthesis wind field shear and large value area of water vapor convergence on 925 hPa are basically consistent with the strong precipitation area of four heavy rainfall pattern over Hunan,which has a good indication for prediction about the heavy rainfall area over Hunan.
The frequency of extreme heavy precipitation events over Hunan is increasing under the background of global warming.Based on the daily precipitation data collected from 88 stations over Hunan and NCEP reanalysis data during 1961—2016,the climate characteristics of regional persistent heavy rain and heavy rainfall pattern over Hunan were analyzed by using the abrupt change analysis,clustering analysis,composite analysis and so on.The results shows that the regional persistent heavy rain during the past 56-year over Hunan has occurred annual average 2 times,and the maximum number of consecutive days is 5.The percent of regional persistent heavy rain is 73% and 0% in summer and winter,and is 16%,38%,20% and 14% in May,June,July and August respectively.Annual regional persistent heavy rain process times changed from 1.4 in 1961—1992 to 2.8 in1993—2016,and 1993 is the mutational year.The regional persistent heavy rain mainly occurred more than 0.9 times a year over the north of central Hunan,and the frequency of regional persistent heavy rain over north of central Hunan was significantly more than that over southern Hunan.The regional persistent heavy rain intensity averaged over Hunan is 82.5 mm·d-1,which is 7.7 mm·d-1 bigger than that of non-sustained regional heavy rain,and the stations of regional heavy rain intensity greater than 85 mm·d-1 are mainly distributed over northwest and southeast Hunan.The heavy rainfall can be divided into four spatial distribution pattern:northwestern,north-central,south-central and southeastern type,and the percent of the four heavy rainfall pattern days to the total heavy rainfall days is 25.6%,30.1%,21% and 18.4%,respectively.The precipitation intensity of the northwestern type and southeastern type was higher than that of the north-central type and south-central type,and the heavy rainfall area of the former two types was more concentrated.The location and direction of synthesis wind field shear and large value area of water vapor convergence on 925 hPa are basically consistent with the strong precipitation area of four heavy rainfall pattern over Hunan,which has a good indication for prediction about the heavy rainfall area over Hunan.
引文
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林爱兰,李春晖,郑彬,等,2013.广东前汛期持续性暴雨的变化特征及其环流形势[J].气象学报,71(4):628-642.
罗伯良,张超,林浩,2008.近40年湖南省极端强降水气候变化趋势与突变特征[J].气象,34(1):80-85.
刘国忠,黄开刚,罗建英,等,2013.基于概念模型及配料法的持续性暴雨短期预报技术探究[J].气象,39(1):20-27.
李娟,孙建华,张元春,等,2016.四川盆地西部与东部持续性暴雨过程的对比分析[J].高原气象,35(1):64-76.DOI:10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2014.00150.
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刘扬,韦志刚,李振朝,等,2012.中国北方地区降水变化的分区研究[J].高原气象,31(3):638-645.
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孙建华,汪汇洁,卫捷,等,2016.江淮区域持续性暴雨过程的水汽源地和输送特征[J].气象学报,74(4):542-555.
施晓晖,温敏,2015.中国持续性暴雨特征及青藏高原热源的影响[J].高原气象,34(3):611-620.DOI:10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2014.00039.
魏凤英,1999.现代气候统计诊断与预测技术[M].北京:气象出版社.
汪汇洁,孙建华,卫捷,等,2014.近30年我国南方区域持续性暴雨过程的分类研究[J].气候与环境研究,19(6):713-725.
王佳津,陈朝平,刘莹,等,2017.四川省持续性暴雨定义及时空分布特征[J].气象科技,45(2):331-341.
吴丽姬,温之平,贺海晏,等,2007.华南前汛期区域持续性暴雨的分布特征及分型[J].中山大学学报,46(6):108-113.
温泉沛,周月华,霍治国,等,2017.气候变暖背景下东南地区暴雨洪涝灾害风险变化[J].生态学杂志,36(2):483-490.
王晓芳,黄华丽,黄治勇,2011.2010年5-6月南方持续性暴雨的成因分析[J].气象,37(10):1206-1215.
王艳兰,刘国忠,唐桥义,2013.桂东北5-8月持续性暴雨过程分析与预报[J].暴雨灾害,32(3):235-241.
谢炯光,纪忠萍,谷德军,等,2006.广东省前汛期连续暴雨的气候背景及中期环流特征[J].应用气象学报,17(3):354-362.
徐明,赵玉春,王晓芳,等,2016.华南前汛期持续性暴雨统计特征及环流分型研究[J].暴雨灾害,35(2):109-118.
杨玮,徐敏,周顺武,等,2017.江淮流域6-7月极端强降水事件时空变化及环流异常[J].高原气象,36(3):718-735.DOI:10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2016.00047.
邹海波,单九生,吴珊珊,等,2013.江西持续性暴雨的典型大尺度环流模型[J].暴雨灾害,32(2):126-131.
张剑明,廖玉芳,段丽洁,等,2011.1960-2009年湖南省暴雨极端事件的气候特征[J].地理科学进展,30(11):1395-1402.
张剑明,廖玉芳,段丽洁,等,2012.湖南近50年极端连续降水的气候变化趋势[J].地理研究,31(6):1004-1015.
赵庆云,傅朝,刘新伟,等,2017.西北东部暖区大暴雨中尺度系统演变特征[J].高原气象,36(3):697-704.DOI:10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2016.00140.
张文龙,董剑希,王昂生,等,2007.中国西南低空急流和西南低层大风对比分析[J].气候与环境研究,12(2):199-210.DOI:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2007.02.09.
鲍名,2007.近50年我国持续性暴雨的统计分析及其大尺度环流背景[J].大气科学,31(5):779-792.DOI:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2007.05.03.
陈丹,周长艳,熊光明,等,2018.近53年四川盆地夏季暴雨变化特征分析[J].高原气象,37(1):197-206.DOI:10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2017.00022.
戴泽军,刘志雄,李易芝,等,2015.近54a湖南区域暴雨的时空分布特征[J].暴雨灾害,34(1):41-46.
何光碧,曾波,郁淑华,等,2016.青藏高原周边地区持续性暴雨特征分析[J].高原气象,35(4):865-874.DOI:10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2015.00081.
胡亮,何金海,高守亭,2007.华南持续性暴雨的大尺度降水条件分析[J].大气科学学报,30(3):345-351.
黄荣辉,陈栋,刘永,2012.中国长江流域洪涝灾害和持续性暴雨的发生特征及成因[J].成都信息工程学院学报,27(1):1-19.
韩微,翟盘茂,2015.三种聚类分析方法在中国温度区划分中的应用研究[J].气候与环境研究,20(1):111-118.DOI:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2014.13210.
姜盈,2012.浙江省近50年持续性暴雨事件的天气气候分析[J].科技通报,28(3):13-20.
康岚,郝丽萍,蒲吉光,等,2016.对两次持续性暴雨过程落区预报的探讨[J].高原气象,35(6):1540-1550.DOI:10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2015.00101.
林爱兰,李春晖,郑彬,等,2013.广东前汛期持续性暴雨的变化特征及其环流形势[J].气象学报,71(4):628-642.
罗伯良,张超,林浩,2008.近40年湖南省极端强降水气候变化趋势与突变特征[J].气象,34(1):80-85.
刘国忠,黄开刚,罗建英,等,2013.基于概念模型及配料法的持续性暴雨短期预报技术探究[J].气象,39(1):20-27.
李娟,孙建华,张元春,等,2016.四川盆地西部与东部持续性暴雨过程的对比分析[J].高原气象,35(1):64-76.DOI:10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2014.00150.
刘伟东,杨萍,尤焕苓,等,2013.北京地区热岛效应及日较差特征[J].气候与环境研究,18(2):171-177.
刘扬,韦志刚,李振朝,等,2012.中国北方地区降水变化的分区研究[J].高原气象,31(3):638-645.
邱军,李江南,梁毅进,等,2008.广东省持续性暴雨的气候特征[J].热带地理,28(5):405-410.
孙建华,汪汇洁,卫捷,等,2016.江淮区域持续性暴雨过程的水汽源地和输送特征[J].气象学报,74(4):542-555.
施晓晖,温敏,2015.中国持续性暴雨特征及青藏高原热源的影响[J].高原气象,34(3):611-620.DOI:10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2014.00039.
魏凤英,1999.现代气候统计诊断与预测技术[M].北京:气象出版社.
汪汇洁,孙建华,卫捷,等,2014.近30年我国南方区域持续性暴雨过程的分类研究[J].气候与环境研究,19(6):713-725.
王佳津,陈朝平,刘莹,等,2017.四川省持续性暴雨定义及时空分布特征[J].气象科技,45(2):331-341.
吴丽姬,温之平,贺海晏,等,2007.华南前汛期区域持续性暴雨的分布特征及分型[J].中山大学学报,46(6):108-113.
温泉沛,周月华,霍治国,等,2017.气候变暖背景下东南地区暴雨洪涝灾害风险变化[J].生态学杂志,36(2):483-490.
王晓芳,黄华丽,黄治勇,2011.2010年5-6月南方持续性暴雨的成因分析[J].气象,37(10):1206-1215.
王艳兰,刘国忠,唐桥义,2013.桂东北5-8月持续性暴雨过程分析与预报[J].暴雨灾害,32(3):235-241.
谢炯光,纪忠萍,谷德军,等,2006.广东省前汛期连续暴雨的气候背景及中期环流特征[J].应用气象学报,17(3):354-362.
徐明,赵玉春,王晓芳,等,2016.华南前汛期持续性暴雨统计特征及环流分型研究[J].暴雨灾害,35(2):109-118.
杨玮,徐敏,周顺武,等,2017.江淮流域6-7月极端强降水事件时空变化及环流异常[J].高原气象,36(3):718-735.DOI:10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2016.00047.
邹海波,单九生,吴珊珊,等,2013.江西持续性暴雨的典型大尺度环流模型[J].暴雨灾害,32(2):126-131.
张剑明,廖玉芳,段丽洁,等,2011.1960-2009年湖南省暴雨极端事件的气候特征[J].地理科学进展,30(11):1395-1402.
张剑明,廖玉芳,段丽洁,等,2012.湖南近50年极端连续降水的气候变化趋势[J].地理研究,31(6):1004-1015.
赵庆云,傅朝,刘新伟,等,2017.西北东部暖区大暴雨中尺度系统演变特征[J].高原气象,36(3):697-704.DOI:10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2016.00140.
张文龙,董剑希,王昂生,等,2007.中国西南低空急流和西南低层大风对比分析[J].气候与环境研究,12(2):199-210.DOI:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2007.02.09.