新疆风力机叶片覆冰风险评估探究
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摘要
针对近些年风力机叶片覆冰事故逐渐增多的情况,依据系统工程理论,探究新疆风力机叶片覆冰风险,分析风力机系统中叶片覆冰风险影响因素,建立叶片覆冰风险评估体系。利用G1法计算准则层与指标层两级评估指标权重,并对叶片覆冰风险因素进行模糊评估,构建模糊三维风险矩阵评估模型。通过对新疆某风电场风力机叶片覆冰风险验证,证明该模型具有一定应用价值,能为有效评估风力机叶片覆冰风险提供理论依据。
In view of the increasing of wind turbine blade icing accidents in recent years, the risk of wind turbine blade icing in Xinjiang is explored according to system engineering theory. The influencing factors of blade icing risk are analyzed and the blade icing risk assessment system is established. The weights of evaluation indexes at two levels of criterion layer and index layer are calculated respectively by G1 method, then the risk factors are evaluated by fuzzy method, and finally, a threedimensional risk matrix fuzzy evaluation model is constructed. The verification of icing risk of wind turbine blades in a wind farm in Xinjiang proves that the model has certain application value and can provide theoretical basis for effectively evaluating the icing risk of wind turbine blades.
In view of the increasing of wind turbine blade icing accidents in recent years, the risk of wind turbine blade icing in Xinjiang is explored according to system engineering theory. The influencing factors of blade icing risk are analyzed and the blade icing risk assessment system is established. The weights of evaluation indexes at two levels of criterion layer and index layer are calculated respectively by G1 method, then the risk factors are evaluated by fuzzy method, and finally, a threedimensional risk matrix fuzzy evaluation model is constructed. The verification of icing risk of wind turbine blades in a wind farm in Xinjiang proves that the model has certain application value and can provide theoretical basis for effectively evaluating the icing risk of wind turbine blades.
引文
[1]郭荣昌,赵小娟,张振海.列控运营风险评估的三维矩阵模型研究[J].铁道学报,2017,39(5):78-83.
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[3]王永刚,张秀艳.民航系统三维风险评估模型的研究[J].中国水运,2007,5(7):147-148.
[4]马海军,黄德镛.采空区三维风险评估模型研究[J].金属矿山,2011(1):139-141.
[5]李冰然,夏临闽,赵晶晶.基于模糊评估和风险矩阵的输电线路风险评估[J].电力与能源,2014,35(6):672-677.
[6] WANG Yanhui, XIAO Xuemei, JIA Limin, et al. Hierarchical network model of safe high-speed rail operation[J]. Transportation Research Record:Journal of the Transportation Research Board,2011,2261(1):49-56.
[7]郭亚军.综合评估理论、方法及应用[M].北京:科学出版社,2007.
[8]陈述,余迪,吴黎明.基于G1法的高危作业疲劳风险模糊综合评判[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2014,10(4):90-95.
[9]类淑菊,孙佳,李彤,等.基于G-1法的飞行疲劳风险模糊综合评判方法研究[J].安全与环境学报,2013,13(4):244-249.
[10]何洋,邹树梁,徐守龙,等.基于G-1模糊综合评判法的医用放射性设备安全评估[J].环境与发展,2017,29(7):20-22.
[11]郭荣昌.高速铁路列控系统运营风险评估方法研究[D].兰州:兰州交通大学,2017.
[12]张荣,刘思峰.一种基于判断矩阵信息的多属性群决策方法[J].系统工程与电子技术,2009,31(2):373-375.
[13]胡晓运,林璐瑶,汤万金,等.消费品生命周期隐患识别与风险评估的三维矩阵方法[J].系统工程理论与实践,2014,34(5):1213-1218.
[14]孙垦,蔡洪涛,杨崇豪.风险定量分析中风险矩阵的构建方法[J].华北水利水电学院学报,2011,32(5):158-160.
[2]阮欣,尹志逸,陈艾荣.风险矩阵评估方法研究与工程应用综述[J].同济大学学报:自然科学版,2013,41(3):381-385.
[3]王永刚,张秀艳.民航系统三维风险评估模型的研究[J].中国水运,2007,5(7):147-148.
[4]马海军,黄德镛.采空区三维风险评估模型研究[J].金属矿山,2011(1):139-141.
[5]李冰然,夏临闽,赵晶晶.基于模糊评估和风险矩阵的输电线路风险评估[J].电力与能源,2014,35(6):672-677.
[6] WANG Yanhui, XIAO Xuemei, JIA Limin, et al. Hierarchical network model of safe high-speed rail operation[J]. Transportation Research Record:Journal of the Transportation Research Board,2011,2261(1):49-56.
[7]郭亚军.综合评估理论、方法及应用[M].北京:科学出版社,2007.
[8]陈述,余迪,吴黎明.基于G1法的高危作业疲劳风险模糊综合评判[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2014,10(4):90-95.
[9]类淑菊,孙佳,李彤,等.基于G-1法的飞行疲劳风险模糊综合评判方法研究[J].安全与环境学报,2013,13(4):244-249.
[10]何洋,邹树梁,徐守龙,等.基于G-1模糊综合评判法的医用放射性设备安全评估[J].环境与发展,2017,29(7):20-22.
[11]郭荣昌.高速铁路列控系统运营风险评估方法研究[D].兰州:兰州交通大学,2017.
[12]张荣,刘思峰.一种基于判断矩阵信息的多属性群决策方法[J].系统工程与电子技术,2009,31(2):373-375.
[13]胡晓运,林璐瑶,汤万金,等.消费品生命周期隐患识别与风险评估的三维矩阵方法[J].系统工程理论与实践,2014,34(5):1213-1218.
[14]孙垦,蔡洪涛,杨崇豪.风险定量分析中风险矩阵的构建方法[J].华北水利水电学院学报,2011,32(5):158-160.