中国海上能源通道安全性多主体建模与仿真
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摘要
分析了中国海上能源通道安全影响因素,描述了中国石油进口运输的实际情况,基于多主体建模与仿真方法,从微观层面出发,构建了中国海上石油运输(中东航线)多主体仿真模型,设计并实现了NetLogo平台下的仿真程序,在验证模型有效性的基础上,对海上石油进口安全影响进行了仿真实验。结果显示我国拥有的超级油轮数量远远不够;热带气旋带来的安全影响比海盗更为严重;油轮数量增加比例通常低于油运总量增加的比例,而海盗与热带气旋的增加比例越大,油运总量变化比例加速增大。
Security factors influencing China's offshore energy channel are analyzed, and the actual situation of China's oil import and transportation is described. Based on multi-agent modeling and simulation method, and starting at the micro level, the energy transport process is simulated and a multi-agent model of China's offshore energy channel(middle east lines) is built; and the simulation program on the NetLogo platform is conducted. The results show that the quantity of China's VLCC is far from enough; the security impact of tropical cyclones is more serious than that of pirates; the increase proportion of carrier's quantity is usually lower than that of the total oil transportation, while the larger the increase proportion of pirates and tropical cyclones, the faster the change proportion of total oil transportation.
Security factors influencing China's offshore energy channel are analyzed, and the actual situation of China's oil import and transportation is described. Based on multi-agent modeling and simulation method, and starting at the micro level, the energy transport process is simulated and a multi-agent model of China's offshore energy channel(middle east lines) is built; and the simulation program on the NetLogo platform is conducted. The results show that the quantity of China's VLCC is far from enough; the security impact of tropical cyclones is more serious than that of pirates; the increase proportion of carrier's quantity is usually lower than that of the total oil transportation, while the larger the increase proportion of pirates and tropical cyclones, the faster the change proportion of total oil transportation.
引文
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[16]沈洋.多主体系统仿真调度与贝叶斯网络决策建模问题研究[D].南京:南京航空航天大学,2012.Shen Yang.Research on the Modeling and Simulation of Multi-Agent System with Complex Event Scheduling Logic and Bayesian Network Decision-Making[D].Nanjing:Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics,2012.
[2]IEA.World Energy Outlook 2011[R].2011.
[3]Zhang H,Pan C.The Analysis of Status and Volume of Crude Oil Shipping Import in China[C].Multimedia Technology(ICMT),2010 International Conference on.IEEE,2010:1-3.
[4]彭丽.我国进口石油海上运输安全的灰色模糊综合评价[D].青岛:中国海洋大学,2009:12-17.Peng Li.The Grey Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation of China’s Importing Petroleum Marine Transportation Safety[D].Qingdao:Ocean University of China,2009:12-17.
[5]张罕育.我国进口原油海上运输安全系统评价及预警研究[D].大连:大连海事大学,2013:36-44.Zhang Hanyu.Study on the Evaluation and Early Warning of China's Seaborne Crude Oil Imports Security System[D].Dalian:Dalian Maritime University,2013:36-44.
[6]明平军.基于可拓学的新加坡海峡航行环境安全评估[D].大连:大连海事大学,2013:42-55.Ming Pingjun.Extenics-based Safety Assessment of Navigation Enviroment in Singapore Straits[D].Dalian:Dalian Maritime University,2013:42-55.
[7]何剑彤,李振福,李娜,等.我国海上战略通道安全影响因素的ISM分析[J].上海海事大学学报,2012,33(4):64-69.He Jiantong,Li Zhenfu,Li Na,et al.Analysis on influencing factors for China’s strategic sea lane security based on ISM[J].Journal of Shanghai Maritime University,2012,33(4):64-69.
[8]巫蓓.我国南海海域的海运安全评价[D].大连:大连海事大学,2013:22-24.Wu Bei.Assessment of Shipping Traffic Safety of the South China Sea[D].Dalian:Dalian Maritime University,2013:22-24.
[9]杨理智,张韧,白承祖,等.基于贝叶斯网络的我国海上能源通道海盗袭击风险分析与实验评估[J].指挥控制与仿真,2014,36(2):51-57.Yang Lizhi,Zhang Ren,Bai Chengzu,et al.The Risk Analysis and Evaluation about Pirate Attacks on Marine Energy Channel of China Based on Bayes Net[J].Command Control and Simulation,2014,36(2):51-57.
[10]杨理智,张韧.基于云模型的我国海上能源战略通道安全风险评估[J].军事运筹与系统工程,2014,28(1):74-80.Yang Lizhi,Zhang Ren.Security risk assessment of China's offshore energy strategic channel based on cloud model[J].Military Operations Research and Systems Engineering,2014,28(1):74-80.
[11]王尧,吕靖.中国原油进口运输通道安全研究[J].大连海事大学学报,2014,40(1):109-116.Wang Yao,LüJing.Transportation safety of China crude oil import[J].Journal of Dalian Maritime University,2014,40(1):109-116.
[12]范英,姬强,朱磊,等.中国能源安全研究--基于管理科学的视角[M].北京:科学出版社,2013:112-140.Fan Ying,Ji Qiang,Zhu Lei,et al.Research on energy security in China--from the perspective of management science[M].Beijing:Science Press,2013:112-140.
[13]中石油经济技术研究院.2014年国内外油气行业发展报告[R].2015:1.Institute of Petroleum Economics and technology.Domestic and foreign oil and gas industry development report 2014[R].2015:1.
[14]张韧,洪梅,黎鑫,等,南海-印度洋海洋环境风险评估与应急响应[M].北京:国防工业出版社,2014.Zhang Ren,Hong Mei,Li Xin,et al.Marine environmental risk assessment and emergency response in the South China Sea and India sea[M].Beijing:National Defense Industry Press,2014.
[15]张军.多主体系统--概念、方法与探索[M].北京:首都经济贸易大学出版社,2013.Zhang Jun.Multi Agent System--Concepts、Methods and Exploration[M].Beijing:The capital economics and trade university press,2013.
[16]沈洋.多主体系统仿真调度与贝叶斯网络决策建模问题研究[D].南京:南京航空航天大学,2012.Shen Yang.Research on the Modeling and Simulation of Multi-Agent System with Complex Event Scheduling Logic and Bayesian Network Decision-Making[D].Nanjing:Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics,2012.
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