农业节水和南水北调对华北平原可持续水管理的影响
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摘要
针对华北平原可持续水管理中存在的问题,采用MIKE SHE模型和SD模型耦合的方式,设定现状保持、农业节水和南水北调等3种情景,模拟2014～2028年农业节水和南水北调对华北平原可持续水管理的影响。结果表明:(1)农业节水的实施对华北平原可持续水管理有一定影响,模拟期末的缺水指数下降15.8%,非充分灌溉和减少灌溉量分别使得地下水储量恢复约0.06和0.12 m;(2)南水北调显著降低缺水指数(下降50.7%),地下水水位和含水层储量出现较大的恢复(含水层储量恢复1.12 m);(3)华北平原短期内无法解决缺水问题,但通过多种途径结合,倡导节约用水,提高用水效率,引入区域外的水,可以有效地缓解华北平原的缺水问题,保证水资源的可持续利用和发展。
In view of the existing problems in the sustainable water management of the North China Plain(NCP), the MIKE SHE model and SD model were adopted to set three scenarios, including business as usual, agricultural water conservation(AWC) and south-to-north water diversion project(SNWDP), to simulate the impact of AWC and SNWDP on the sustainable water management of the NCP from 2014 to 2028. The results show that :(1) the implementation of agricultural water conservation has a certain impact on the sustainable water management in the NCP. At the end of the simulation period, the water shortage index decreased by 15.8%, and the insufficient irrigation and irrigation reduction made the groundwater aquifer storage recover by 0.06 m and 0.12 m respectively;(2) SNWDP can significantly reduce water shortage index(decreasing by 50.7%) and the recovery of groundwater levels and aquifer storage appear larger(aquifer storage recovery of 1.12 m);(3) the NCP is unable to solve the problem of water shortage in the short term, but through a variety of ways, such as advocating water conservation, increasing water use efficiency and transferring water from outside area, can effectively alleviate the water shortage of the NCP and ensure the sustainable utilization and development of water resources.
In view of the existing problems in the sustainable water management of the North China Plain(NCP), the MIKE SHE model and SD model were adopted to set three scenarios, including business as usual, agricultural water conservation(AWC) and south-to-north water diversion project(SNWDP), to simulate the impact of AWC and SNWDP on the sustainable water management of the NCP from 2014 to 2028. The results show that :(1) the implementation of agricultural water conservation has a certain impact on the sustainable water management in the NCP. At the end of the simulation period, the water shortage index decreased by 15.8%, and the insufficient irrigation and irrigation reduction made the groundwater aquifer storage recover by 0.06 m and 0.12 m respectively;(2) SNWDP can significantly reduce water shortage index(decreasing by 50.7%) and the recovery of groundwater levels and aquifer storage appear larger(aquifer storage recovery of 1.12 m);(3) the NCP is unable to solve the problem of water shortage in the short term, but through a variety of ways, such as advocating water conservation, increasing water use efficiency and transferring water from outside area, can effectively alleviate the water shortage of the NCP and ensure the sustainable utilization and development of water resources.
引文
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[6] GLEICK P H.A look at twenty-first century water resources development[J].Water International,2000,25(1):127-138.
[7] SULLIVAN C.Calculating a water poverty index[J].Water Development,2002,30(7):1195-1210.
[8] HAASNOOT M,MIDDELKOOP H,BEEK E V,et al.A method to develop sustainable water management strategies for an uncertain future[J].Sustainable Development,2011,19(6):369-381.
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[16] 石建省,李国敏,梁杏,等.华北平原地下水演变机制与调控[J].地球学报,2014,35(5):527-534.SHI J S,LI G M,LIANG X,et al.Evolution mechanism and control of groundwater in the North China Plain[J].Acta Geoscientica Sinica,2014,35(5):527-534.
[17] 夏军,翟金良,占车生.我国水资源研究与发展的若干思考[J].地球科学进展,2011,26(9) :905-915.XIA J,ZHAI J L,ZHAN C S.Some reflections on the research and development of water resources in China[J].Advances in Earth Science,2011,26(9):905-915.
[18] 秦欢欢.华北平原水资源利用系统动力学模拟与仿真[J].东华理工大学学报:自然科学版,2018,41 (2):158-168.QIN H H.Simulation and emulation on water resources utilization in the North China Plain based on system dynamics[J].Journal of East China University of Technology (Natural Science),41 (2):158-168.
[19] XU Y Q,MO X G,CAI Y L,et al.Analysis on groundwater table drawdown by land use and the quest for sustainable water use in the Hebei Plain in China[J].Agricultural Water Management,2005,75:38-53.
[20] 张光辉,费宇红,刘克岩,等.华北平原农田区地下水开采量对降水变化响应[J].水科学进展,2006,17(1):43-48.ZHANG G H,FEI Y H,LIU K Y,et al.Regional groundwater pumpage for agriculture responding to precipitation in North China Plain[J].Advances in Water Science,2006,17(1):43-48.
[21] 刘昌明.发挥南水北调的生态效益修复华北平原地下水[J].南水北调与水利科技,2003,24(1):17-19.LIU C M.Exploring an ecological benefit of South-to-North Water Transfers for rehabilitating ground water systems in the North China Plain[J].South-to-North Water Transfers and Water Science & Technology,2003,24(1):17-19.
[22] 张光辉,费宇红,刘春华,等.华北平原农灌用水强度与地下水承载力适应性状况[J].农业工程学报,2013,29(1):1-10.ZHANG G H,FEI Y H,LIU C H,et al.Adaptation between irrigation intensity and groundwater carrying capacity in North China Plain[J].Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering (Transactions of the CSAE),2013,29(1):1-10.
[23] 张丽娟.气候变化对地下水灌溉供给的影响及灌溉管理的适应性反应:基于华北平原的实证研究[D].沈阳:沈阳农业大学,2016.ZHANG L J.Impacts of climate change on groundwater irrigation supply and adaptive response of irrigation management:An empirical study in the North China Plain[D].Shenyang:Shenyang Agricultural University,2016.
[24] PING J ,YAN S ,GU P ,et al.Application of MIKE SHE to study the impact of coal mining on river runoff in Gujiao mining area,Shanxi,China[J].Plos One,2017,12(12):e0188949.
[25] 刘蛟,刘铁,黄粤,等.基于遥感数据的叶尔羌河流域水文过程模拟与分析[J].地理科学进展,2017,36(6):753-761.LIU J,LIU T,HUANG Y,et al.Simulation and analysis of the hydrological processes in the Yarkant River Basin based on remote sensing data[J].Progress in Geography,2017,36(6):753-761.
[26] 朱洁,王烜,李春晖,等.系统动力学方法在水资源系统中的研究进展述评[J].水资源与水工程学报,2015,26(2):32-39.ZHU J,WANG X,LI C H,et al.Review on method of system dynamics applied in water resources system[J].Journal of Water Resources & Water Engineering,2015,26(2):32-39.
[27] HUANG M B,ELSHORBAGY A,BARBOUR S L,et al.System dynamics modeling of infiltration and drainage in layered coarse soil[J].Canadian Journal of Soil Science,2011,91:185-197.
[28] SUN Y H,LIU N N,SHANG J X,et al.Sustainable utilization of water resources in China:A system dynamics model[J].Journal of Cleaner Production,2017,142:613-625.
[29] RAMLI N N,SHAMSUDIN M N,MOHAMED Z,et al.The impact of fertilizer subsidy on Malaysia paddy /rice industry using a system dynamics approach[J].International Journal of Social Science and Humanity,2012,2(3):213-219.
[30] DURAN-ENCALADA J A,PAUCAR-CAERES A,BANDALA E R,et al.The impact of global climate change on water quantity and quality:A system dynamics approach to the US-Mexican transborder region[J].European Journal of Operational Research,2017,256(2):567-581.
[31] ZHANG X Y,PEI D,HU C S.Conserving groundwater for irrigation in the North China Plain[J].Irrigation Science,2003,21 (4):159-166.
[2] 李孔燕.生态型城市可持续水管理的理论、方法和实践研究[D].上海:华东师范大学,2007.LI K Y.Study on the concept,methods and practice of ecotypic city’s sustainable water management[D].Shanghai:East China Normal University,2007.
[3] 夏军.可持续水资源管理研究的若干热点及讨论[J].人民长江,1997,28(4):25-26.XIA J.Some hot topics and discussions on sustainable water resource management[J].Renmin Changjiang,1997,28(4):25-26.
[4] LOUCKS D P,GLADWELL J S.Sustainability criteria for water resources system[M].Cambridge University Press,1999:124-126.
[5] LOUCKS D P.Sustainable water resources management[J].Water International,2000,25(1):3-10.
[6] GLEICK P H.A look at twenty-first century water resources development[J].Water International,2000,25(1):127-138.
[7] SULLIVAN C.Calculating a water poverty index[J].Water Development,2002,30(7):1195-1210.
[8] HAASNOOT M,MIDDELKOOP H,BEEK E V,et al.A method to develop sustainable water management strategies for an uncertain future[J].Sustainable Development,2011,19(6):369-381.
[9] LEEUWEN C J V.City Blueprints:Baseline assessments of sustainable water management in 11 cities of the future[J].Water Resources Management,2013,27(15):5191-5206.
[10] ZACHARIAS I,DIMITRIOU E,KOUSSOURIS T.Developing sustainable water management scenarios by using thorough hydrologic analysis and environmental criteria.[J].Journal of Environmental Management,2003,69(4):401-412.
[11] 魏玲玲.玛纳斯河流域水资源可持续利用研究[D].石河子:石河子大学,2014.WEI L L.The Research of water resource sustainable utilization in Manas River basin[D].Shihezi:Shihezi University,2014.
[12] 秦欢欢.基于分布式水文模型和系统动力学方法的华北平原水资源可持续利用研究[D].北京:北京大学,2014.QIN H H.Sustainable water use in the North China plain:Distributed hydrological modeling and system dynamics analysis[D].Beijing:Peking University,2014.
[13] 张钧茹.基于系统动力学的京津冀地区水资源承载力研究[D].北京:中国地质大学(北京),2016.ZHANG J R.Research on water resources carrying capacity of Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei Province based on system dynamics[D].Beijing:China University of Geosciences (Beijing),2016.
[14] QIN H H,CAO G L,KRISTENSEN M,et al.Integrated hydrological modeling of the North China Plain and implications for sustainable water management[J].Hydrology Earth System Sciences,2013,17:3759- 3778.
[15] QIN H H,SUN A,LIU J,et al.System dynamics analysis of water supply and demand in the North China Plain[J].Water Policy,2012,14(2):214-231.
[16] 石建省,李国敏,梁杏,等.华北平原地下水演变机制与调控[J].地球学报,2014,35(5):527-534.SHI J S,LI G M,LIANG X,et al.Evolution mechanism and control of groundwater in the North China Plain[J].Acta Geoscientica Sinica,2014,35(5):527-534.
[17] 夏军,翟金良,占车生.我国水资源研究与发展的若干思考[J].地球科学进展,2011,26(9) :905-915.XIA J,ZHAI J L,ZHAN C S.Some reflections on the research and development of water resources in China[J].Advances in Earth Science,2011,26(9):905-915.
[18] 秦欢欢.华北平原水资源利用系统动力学模拟与仿真[J].东华理工大学学报:自然科学版,2018,41 (2):158-168.QIN H H.Simulation and emulation on water resources utilization in the North China Plain based on system dynamics[J].Journal of East China University of Technology (Natural Science),41 (2):158-168.
[19] XU Y Q,MO X G,CAI Y L,et al.Analysis on groundwater table drawdown by land use and the quest for sustainable water use in the Hebei Plain in China[J].Agricultural Water Management,2005,75:38-53.
[20] 张光辉,费宇红,刘克岩,等.华北平原农田区地下水开采量对降水变化响应[J].水科学进展,2006,17(1):43-48.ZHANG G H,FEI Y H,LIU K Y,et al.Regional groundwater pumpage for agriculture responding to precipitation in North China Plain[J].Advances in Water Science,2006,17(1):43-48.
[21] 刘昌明.发挥南水北调的生态效益修复华北平原地下水[J].南水北调与水利科技,2003,24(1):17-19.LIU C M.Exploring an ecological benefit of South-to-North Water Transfers for rehabilitating ground water systems in the North China Plain[J].South-to-North Water Transfers and Water Science & Technology,2003,24(1):17-19.
[22] 张光辉,费宇红,刘春华,等.华北平原农灌用水强度与地下水承载力适应性状况[J].农业工程学报,2013,29(1):1-10.ZHANG G H,FEI Y H,LIU C H,et al.Adaptation between irrigation intensity and groundwater carrying capacity in North China Plain[J].Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering (Transactions of the CSAE),2013,29(1):1-10.
[23] 张丽娟.气候变化对地下水灌溉供给的影响及灌溉管理的适应性反应:基于华北平原的实证研究[D].沈阳:沈阳农业大学,2016.ZHANG L J.Impacts of climate change on groundwater irrigation supply and adaptive response of irrigation management:An empirical study in the North China Plain[D].Shenyang:Shenyang Agricultural University,2016.
[24] PING J ,YAN S ,GU P ,et al.Application of MIKE SHE to study the impact of coal mining on river runoff in Gujiao mining area,Shanxi,China[J].Plos One,2017,12(12):e0188949.
[25] 刘蛟,刘铁,黄粤,等.基于遥感数据的叶尔羌河流域水文过程模拟与分析[J].地理科学进展,2017,36(6):753-761.LIU J,LIU T,HUANG Y,et al.Simulation and analysis of the hydrological processes in the Yarkant River Basin based on remote sensing data[J].Progress in Geography,2017,36(6):753-761.
[26] 朱洁,王烜,李春晖,等.系统动力学方法在水资源系统中的研究进展述评[J].水资源与水工程学报,2015,26(2):32-39.ZHU J,WANG X,LI C H,et al.Review on method of system dynamics applied in water resources system[J].Journal of Water Resources & Water Engineering,2015,26(2):32-39.
[27] HUANG M B,ELSHORBAGY A,BARBOUR S L,et al.System dynamics modeling of infiltration and drainage in layered coarse soil[J].Canadian Journal of Soil Science,2011,91:185-197.
[28] SUN Y H,LIU N N,SHANG J X,et al.Sustainable utilization of water resources in China:A system dynamics model[J].Journal of Cleaner Production,2017,142:613-625.
[29] RAMLI N N,SHAMSUDIN M N,MOHAMED Z,et al.The impact of fertilizer subsidy on Malaysia paddy /rice industry using a system dynamics approach[J].International Journal of Social Science and Humanity,2012,2(3):213-219.
[30] DURAN-ENCALADA J A,PAUCAR-CAERES A,BANDALA E R,et al.The impact of global climate change on water quantity and quality:A system dynamics approach to the US-Mexican transborder region[J].European Journal of Operational Research,2017,256(2):567-581.
[31] ZHANG X Y,PEI D,HU C S.Conserving groundwater for irrigation in the North China Plain[J].Irrigation Science,2003,21 (4):159-166.