社会养老保险对居民消费影响的收入门槛效应研究
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摘要
社会养老保险促进还是抑制居民消费,当前文献对这一问题的研究并没有取得共识。无论是现收现付制还是基金制,社会养老保险对居民消费的影响都不是单一方向,它既可通过降低养老收入的不确定性提高消费,也可能影响预算约束从而挤出消费。本文分析了现收现付制和基金制社会养老保险的运行机制及其对居民消费的影响机制,在此基础上探讨了我国统账结合的城镇企业职工基本养老保险对居民消费的影响机制。以我国31个省份2001-2017年的面板数据为样本进行检验。结果表明,城镇企业职工基本养老保险对居民消费的影响存在收入门槛效应。城镇企业职工基本养老保险的覆盖率和替代率对居民消费的影响都存在非线性特征,在收入较低时抑制消费,超过某一收入门槛后促进消费。
Whether the Social Pension Scheme improves or reduces household consumption, there has no consensus in the related literature. The impact of the Social Pension Scheme on household consumption, whether pay-as-you-go scheme or funding scheme, is not in single one direction. It may increase household consumption by reducing the uncertainty of pension income or squeeze out household consumption through affecting budget constraints. This paper analyzes the operating mechanism of pay-as-you-go scheme and funding scheme, and the influnencing mechanism on household consumption. Then discusses the influence mechanism of the basic social insurance for employees in urban enterprises,which combined with Social integration and personal accounts,on household consumption. Taking the panel data from 2001 to 2017 of our 31 provinces as a sample, Our study finds that the impact of the basic social insurance for employees in urban enterprises on household consumption shows a distinct income threshold characteristic, both the coverage and substitution rate of the basic social insurance for employees in urban enterprises have nonlinear influence on the household consumption. When the income is lower, the household consumption is suppressed by the coverage and substitution rate, but is promoted after a certain income threshold.
Whether the Social Pension Scheme improves or reduces household consumption, there has no consensus in the related literature. The impact of the Social Pension Scheme on household consumption, whether pay-as-you-go scheme or funding scheme, is not in single one direction. It may increase household consumption by reducing the uncertainty of pension income or squeeze out household consumption through affecting budget constraints. This paper analyzes the operating mechanism of pay-as-you-go scheme and funding scheme, and the influnencing mechanism on household consumption. Then discusses the influence mechanism of the basic social insurance for employees in urban enterprises,which combined with Social integration and personal accounts,on household consumption. Taking the panel data from 2001 to 2017 of our 31 provinces as a sample, Our study finds that the impact of the basic social insurance for employees in urban enterprises on household consumption shows a distinct income threshold characteristic, both the coverage and substitution rate of the basic social insurance for employees in urban enterprises have nonlinear influence on the household consumption. When the income is lower, the household consumption is suppressed by the coverage and substitution rate, but is promoted after a certain income threshold.
引文
[1]Feldstein,M.Social Security,Induced Retirement and Aggregate Capital Accumulation[J].Journal of Political Economy,1974,82(5):905-926.
[2]Leung,S.F.The Dynamic Effects of Social Security on Individual Consumption,Wealth and Welfare[J].Journal of Public Economy Theory.2002,4(10):581-612.
[3]Kantor,S.E.,and Fishback,P.V.Precautionary Saving,Insurance,and the Origins of Workers Compensation[J].Journal of Political Economics,1996,104(2):419-442.
[4]Richard,T.Quasi Rational Economics[M].New York:Russell Sage Foundation Publications,1994:368-384.
[5]Barro,R.Are Government Bonds Net Wealth?[J].Journal of Political Economics,1974,82(6):1095-1117.
[6]Barro,R.Social Security and Consumer Spending in an International Cross Section[J].Journal of Public Economy,1979,11(3):275-289.
[7]Aydede,H.Y.Saving and Social Security Wealth:A Case of Turkey[R].Windsor:Networks Financial Institute,University of Windsor,2007:1-32.
[8]King,M.A.,and Dicks,M.Asset Holding and the Life-Cycle[J].The Economic Journal,1982,92(366):16-26.
[9]Diamond,P.,and Hausman,J.R.Individual Retirement and Savings Behavior[J].Journal of Public Economics,1984,23(1):81-114.
[10]Kotlikoff,L.J.Testing the Theory of social Security and Life Cycle Accumulation[J].American Economic Review,1979,69(3):396-410.
[11]Attanasio,O.P.,and Brugiavini,A.Social Security and Households’Saving[J].TheQuarterlyJournal ofEconmics,2003,118(3):1075-1119.
[12]郑秉文,史寒冰.东亚地区社会养老保险制度模式与经济发展[J].世界经济,2001,(3):36-40.
[13]樊纲,王小鲁.消费条件模型和各地区消费条件指数[J].经济研究,2004,(5):13-21.
[14]李珍,刘子兰.西方社会保障主要理论及其政策主张回眸[J].经济学动态,2004,(1):82-85.
[15]白重恩,吴斌珍,金烨.中国养老保险缴费对消费和储蓄的影响[J].中国社会科学,2012,(8):50-71.
[16]李珍,赵青.我国城镇养老保险制度挤进了居民消费吗?[J].公共管理学报,2015,(4):102-110.
[17]肖攀,李连友,苏静.农村社会保障对农村居民消费影响的门槛效应与区域异质性[J].软科学,2015,(6):15-18.
[18]魏勇.社会保障、收入门槛与城镇居民消费升级[J].社会保障评论,2017,(4):21-35.
[19]顾海兵,张实桐.试论社会保障水平与消费水平的不相关[J].经济学家,2010,(1):86-73.
(1)参见中共中央国务院《关于完善促进消费体制机制进一步激发居民消费潜力的若干意见》。
(1)Samuelson, P.A. An Exact Consumption-loan Model of Interest with or without the Social Contrivance of Money[J]. Journal of Political Economy, 1958, 67(6):467-482.
(2)制度实际运行中,由于转轨成本的存在,个人账户当前并未做实,空账运行。
(1)由于统计数据缺失,部分省份2001-2004年的城镇人口数据不全。本文采用北京大学林坚副教授2010年发表于《城市规划》第3期的《2000年以来人口城镇化水平变动省际差异分析--基于统计数据的校正和修补》一文中的修补数据。
[2]Leung,S.F.The Dynamic Effects of Social Security on Individual Consumption,Wealth and Welfare[J].Journal of Public Economy Theory.2002,4(10):581-612.
[3]Kantor,S.E.,and Fishback,P.V.Precautionary Saving,Insurance,and the Origins of Workers Compensation[J].Journal of Political Economics,1996,104(2):419-442.
[4]Richard,T.Quasi Rational Economics[M].New York:Russell Sage Foundation Publications,1994:368-384.
[5]Barro,R.Are Government Bonds Net Wealth?[J].Journal of Political Economics,1974,82(6):1095-1117.
[6]Barro,R.Social Security and Consumer Spending in an International Cross Section[J].Journal of Public Economy,1979,11(3):275-289.
[7]Aydede,H.Y.Saving and Social Security Wealth:A Case of Turkey[R].Windsor:Networks Financial Institute,University of Windsor,2007:1-32.
[8]King,M.A.,and Dicks,M.Asset Holding and the Life-Cycle[J].The Economic Journal,1982,92(366):16-26.
[9]Diamond,P.,and Hausman,J.R.Individual Retirement and Savings Behavior[J].Journal of Public Economics,1984,23(1):81-114.
[10]Kotlikoff,L.J.Testing the Theory of social Security and Life Cycle Accumulation[J].American Economic Review,1979,69(3):396-410.
[11]Attanasio,O.P.,and Brugiavini,A.Social Security and Households’Saving[J].TheQuarterlyJournal ofEconmics,2003,118(3):1075-1119.
[12]郑秉文,史寒冰.东亚地区社会养老保险制度模式与经济发展[J].世界经济,2001,(3):36-40.
[13]樊纲,王小鲁.消费条件模型和各地区消费条件指数[J].经济研究,2004,(5):13-21.
[14]李珍,刘子兰.西方社会保障主要理论及其政策主张回眸[J].经济学动态,2004,(1):82-85.
[15]白重恩,吴斌珍,金烨.中国养老保险缴费对消费和储蓄的影响[J].中国社会科学,2012,(8):50-71.
[16]李珍,赵青.我国城镇养老保险制度挤进了居民消费吗?[J].公共管理学报,2015,(4):102-110.
[17]肖攀,李连友,苏静.农村社会保障对农村居民消费影响的门槛效应与区域异质性[J].软科学,2015,(6):15-18.
[18]魏勇.社会保障、收入门槛与城镇居民消费升级[J].社会保障评论,2017,(4):21-35.
[19]顾海兵,张实桐.试论社会保障水平与消费水平的不相关[J].经济学家,2010,(1):86-73.
(1)参见中共中央国务院《关于完善促进消费体制机制进一步激发居民消费潜力的若干意见》。
(1)Samuelson, P.A. An Exact Consumption-loan Model of Interest with or without the Social Contrivance of Money[J]. Journal of Political Economy, 1958, 67(6):467-482.
(2)制度实际运行中,由于转轨成本的存在,个人账户当前并未做实,空账运行。
(1)由于统计数据缺失,部分省份2001-2004年的城镇人口数据不全。本文采用北京大学林坚副教授2010年发表于《城市规划》第3期的《2000年以来人口城镇化水平变动省际差异分析--基于统计数据的校正和修补》一文中的修补数据。