“头顶库”风险量化分析模型研究及实例应用
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摘要
为了对天然气长输管道等设施穿越尾矿库下游形成的"头顶库"风险进行量化分析,基于假定和边界条件构建了尾矿库溃坝风险分析模型,并通过引入计算公式构建了尾矿库溃坝风险量化分析模型,提取了冲击波超压和爆破地震烈度法计算公式来量化分析管道爆炸对尾矿库影响效应。以福建龙岩某尾矿库"头顶库"为例,研究了该尾矿库溃坝后冲击力是否会造成管道断裂;模拟了爆炸对人员影响的范围;进而分析了管道完全破裂后爆炸造成的冲击波和爆炸振动对尾矿库的影响。研究结果表明:在500 a一遇的洪水条件下,尾矿库溃坝下泄的泥砂流对该穿越管道造成的冲击力不会造成管道断裂;管道泄漏10 min的爆炸情形产生的爆炸冲击波对尾矿库坝体结构没有影响,产生的等效爆炸地震烈度大于尾矿库的抗震设防烈度6度。可为同类实例提供工程理论方法。
In order to quantitatively analyze the risk of overhead tailings pond,where there is a dangerous long-distance natural gas pipeline crossing through the downstream of tailings pond,a risk analysis model of tailings dam break was constructed based on the assumptions and boundary conditions,and a risk quantitative analysis model of tailings dam break was established by introducing into the calculation formulas. According to the research contents,the calculation formulas of shock wave overpressure and blasting seismic intensity method were extracted to quantitatively analyze the effect of pipeline explosion on the tailings pond. Taking a overhead tailings pond in Longyan,Fujian Province as an example,the numerical simulation was carried out by using the risk analysis model of tailings dam break,and whether the impact force of tailings dam break caused the pipeline fracture was studied. Based on the explosion model of complete fracture of pipeline,the influence range of explosion on personnel was firstly simulated,and the effect of blast wave and explosion vibration caused by the pipeline explosion on the tailings pond was analyzed. At the same time,it provides the engineering theory and method for the similar examples.
In order to quantitatively analyze the risk of overhead tailings pond,where there is a dangerous long-distance natural gas pipeline crossing through the downstream of tailings pond,a risk analysis model of tailings dam break was constructed based on the assumptions and boundary conditions,and a risk quantitative analysis model of tailings dam break was established by introducing into the calculation formulas. According to the research contents,the calculation formulas of shock wave overpressure and blasting seismic intensity method were extracted to quantitatively analyze the effect of pipeline explosion on the tailings pond. Taking a overhead tailings pond in Longyan,Fujian Province as an example,the numerical simulation was carried out by using the risk analysis model of tailings dam break,and whether the impact force of tailings dam break caused the pipeline fracture was studied. Based on the explosion model of complete fracture of pipeline,the influence range of explosion on personnel was firstly simulated,and the effect of blast wave and explosion vibration caused by the pipeline explosion on the tailings pond was analyzed. At the same time,it provides the engineering theory and method for the similar examples.
引文
[1]国家安全生产监督管理总局.国家安全监管总局关于印发《遏制尾矿库“头顶库”重特大事故工作方案》的通知:安监总管一[2016]54号[A/OL].(2017-12-01).http://www.chinasafety.gov.cn/newpage/Contents/Channel_6288/2016/0526/269917/content_269917.htm.
[2]国家安监总局.遏制“头顶库”重特大事故[J].湖南安全与防灾,2016(6):5.State Administration of Work Safety:Containment of the“Overhead Tailings Dam”major accidents[J].Hunan Security and Disaster Prevention,2016(6):5.
[3]李全明,张红,李钢.中国与加拿大尾矿库安全管理对比分析[J].中国矿业,2017,26(1):21-25.LI Quanming,ZHANG Hong,LI Gang.Comparative analysis on safety management of tailings ponds in China and Canada[J].China Mining Magazine,2017,26(1):21-25.
[4]王昆,杨鹏,Karen Hudson-Edwards,等.尾矿库溃坝灾害防控现状及发展[J].工程科学学报,2018,40(5):526-539.WANG K,YANG P,HUDSON-EDWARDSK,et al.Status and development for the prevention and management of tailings dam failure accidents[J].Chinese Journal of Engineering,2018,40(5):526-539.
[5]唐永俊,孔祥云,高亚伟,等.尾矿库安全现状及溃坝失稳研究[J].煤矿机械,2017,38(3):8-10.TANG Yongjun,KONG Xiangyun,GAO Yawei,etal.Study on safety status and dam-break instability of tailings pond[J].Coal Mine Machinery,2017,38(3):8-10.
[6]李振涛,李全明,覃璇.基于MIKE21 FM模型的尾矿库溃坝数值模拟及影响分析[C]//2017年公共安全科学技术学术年会论文集:478-481.
[7]郑欣,李全明,许开立,等.考虑变量相关性的尾矿坝坡失稳溃坝概率计算方法[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2015,11(2):23-27.ZHENG Xin,LI Quanming,XU Kaili,et al.Calculation method on probability of tailings dam failure caused by dam slope instability considering correlation of variables[J].Journal of Safety Science and Technology.2015,11(2):23-27.
[8]中华人民共和国住房和城乡建设部.河道整治设计规范:GB50707-2011[S].北京:中国计划出版社,2012:4.
[9]中华人民共和国国土资源部.泥石流灾害防治工程勘查规范:DZ/T 0220-2006[S].北京:中国标准出版社,2006:11.
[10]中华人民共和国住房和城乡建设部.输气管道工程设计规范:GB50251-2015[S].北京:中国计划出版社,2015:8.
[11]梁瑞,张春燕,姜峰,等.天然气管道泄漏爆炸后果评价模型对比分析[J].中国安全科学学报,2007(8):131-135,177.LIANG Rui,ZHANG Chunyan,JIANG Feng,et al.Canparative analysis of evaluation models forexplosion consequence caused by leakage ofnaturalgas pipelines[J].Chinal Safety Science Journal,2007(8):131-135,177.
[12]国家安全生产监督管理总局编.安全评价[M].北京:煤炭工业出版社,2005:563-567.
[13]爆破安全规程.中国人民共和国国家质量监督检验检疫总局.GB6722-2014,2015.
[14]顾毅成,史雅语,金骥良.工程爆破安全[M].合肥:中国科技技术大学出版社,2009:560-562.
[15]中华人民共和国住房和城乡建设部.尾矿设施设计规范:GB50863-2013[S].北京:中国计划出版社,2013:12.
[2]国家安监总局.遏制“头顶库”重特大事故[J].湖南安全与防灾,2016(6):5.State Administration of Work Safety:Containment of the“Overhead Tailings Dam”major accidents[J].Hunan Security and Disaster Prevention,2016(6):5.
[3]李全明,张红,李钢.中国与加拿大尾矿库安全管理对比分析[J].中国矿业,2017,26(1):21-25.LI Quanming,ZHANG Hong,LI Gang.Comparative analysis on safety management of tailings ponds in China and Canada[J].China Mining Magazine,2017,26(1):21-25.
[4]王昆,杨鹏,Karen Hudson-Edwards,等.尾矿库溃坝灾害防控现状及发展[J].工程科学学报,2018,40(5):526-539.WANG K,YANG P,HUDSON-EDWARDSK,et al.Status and development for the prevention and management of tailings dam failure accidents[J].Chinese Journal of Engineering,2018,40(5):526-539.
[5]唐永俊,孔祥云,高亚伟,等.尾矿库安全现状及溃坝失稳研究[J].煤矿机械,2017,38(3):8-10.TANG Yongjun,KONG Xiangyun,GAO Yawei,etal.Study on safety status and dam-break instability of tailings pond[J].Coal Mine Machinery,2017,38(3):8-10.
[6]李振涛,李全明,覃璇.基于MIKE21 FM模型的尾矿库溃坝数值模拟及影响分析[C]//2017年公共安全科学技术学术年会论文集:478-481.
[7]郑欣,李全明,许开立,等.考虑变量相关性的尾矿坝坡失稳溃坝概率计算方法[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2015,11(2):23-27.ZHENG Xin,LI Quanming,XU Kaili,et al.Calculation method on probability of tailings dam failure caused by dam slope instability considering correlation of variables[J].Journal of Safety Science and Technology.2015,11(2):23-27.
[8]中华人民共和国住房和城乡建设部.河道整治设计规范:GB50707-2011[S].北京:中国计划出版社,2012:4.
[9]中华人民共和国国土资源部.泥石流灾害防治工程勘查规范:DZ/T 0220-2006[S].北京:中国标准出版社,2006:11.
[10]中华人民共和国住房和城乡建设部.输气管道工程设计规范:GB50251-2015[S].北京:中国计划出版社,2015:8.
[11]梁瑞,张春燕,姜峰,等.天然气管道泄漏爆炸后果评价模型对比分析[J].中国安全科学学报,2007(8):131-135,177.LIANG Rui,ZHANG Chunyan,JIANG Feng,et al.Canparative analysis of evaluation models forexplosion consequence caused by leakage ofnaturalgas pipelines[J].Chinal Safety Science Journal,2007(8):131-135,177.
[12]国家安全生产监督管理总局编.安全评价[M].北京:煤炭工业出版社,2005:563-567.
[13]爆破安全规程.中国人民共和国国家质量监督检验检疫总局.GB6722-2014,2015.
[14]顾毅成,史雅语,金骥良.工程爆破安全[M].合肥:中国科技技术大学出版社,2009:560-562.
[15]中华人民共和国住房和城乡建设部.尾矿设施设计规范:GB50863-2013[S].北京:中国计划出版社,2013:12.
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