中国东部夏季降水的年代际变化格局——观测与CESM控制试验模拟结果的对比
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摘要
根据1961-2005年中国东部389站的夏季降水观测资料,以及通用地球系统模式(the community earth system model,CESM)在固定边界条件驱动下的650年控制试验模拟结果,采用经验正交函数分解和功率谱分析等方法,辨识了中国东部夏季降水年代际变化的主导格局。观测分析与CESM的控制试验模拟结果均表明:中国东部夏季降水年代际变化的主导空间型为"南北反相"(大致以淮河流域为界)和由南到北的多带相间分布(长江流域、东北同相但与华南、华北反相)格局。对比证明:在无任何外强迫变化下,CESM可模拟出观测到的1961-2005年中国东部夏季降水年代际变化的主导空间型和相应的时间位相转折特征。这为深入辨识区域降水年代际异常的主控因子,分析气候系统外强迫变化和内部变率对中国降水年代际变化的影响机制提供了重要依据。
Using observed summer precipitation data from 389 sites for the period of 1961-2005, and a 650-year control simulation by the Community Earth System Model(CESM) with fixed pre- industrial external forcing, the dominant patterns of decadal variation of summer(June, July, August) precipitation over eastern China were analyzed with the EOF and Power Spectrum. The EOF analysis of both observed data and simulated data shows that the major patterns of decadal variation of summer precipitation over eastern China are a dipole pattern divided by the Huaihe River and a four zonal bands alternate with each other centered at South China, the Yangtze River Valley, North China Plain and Northeast China. Comparison between observation and simulation demonstrate that the CESM with the fixed external forcing reproduced well the above mentioned patterns and temporal alternations of phases of decadal variation of summer precipitation over eastern China during 1961 to 2005. This finding provides the knowledge for understanding the main causes of regional decadal precipitation anomalies and analyzing the influences of external forcing and internal variability on decadal variation of precipitation over China in future study.
Using observed summer precipitation data from 389 sites for the period of 1961-2005, and a 650-year control simulation by the Community Earth System Model(CESM) with fixed pre- industrial external forcing, the dominant patterns of decadal variation of summer(June, July, August) precipitation over eastern China were analyzed with the EOF and Power Spectrum. The EOF analysis of both observed data and simulated data shows that the major patterns of decadal variation of summer precipitation over eastern China are a dipole pattern divided by the Huaihe River and a four zonal bands alternate with each other centered at South China, the Yangtze River Valley, North China Plain and Northeast China. Comparison between observation and simulation demonstrate that the CESM with the fixed external forcing reproduced well the above mentioned patterns and temporal alternations of phases of decadal variation of summer precipitation over eastern China during 1961 to 2005. This finding provides the knowledge for understanding the main causes of regional decadal precipitation anomalies and analyzing the influences of external forcing and internal variability on decadal variation of precipitation over China in future study.
引文
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[28]张庆云,吕俊梅,杨莲梅,等.夏季中国降水型的年代际变化与大气内部动力过程及外强迫因子关系.大气科学,2007,31(6):1290-1300.[Zhang Qingyun,Lv Junmei,Yang Lianmei,et al.The inter-decadal variation of precipitation pattern over China during summer and its relationship with the atmospheric internal dynamic processes and extra-forcing factors.Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences,2007,31(6):1290-1300.]
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[30]邓伟涛,孙照渤,曾刚,等.中国东部夏季降水型的年代际变化及其与北太平洋海温的关系.大气科学,2009,33(4):835-846.[Deng Weitao,Sun Zhaobo,Zeng Gang,et al.Inter-decadal variation of summer precipitation pattern over eastern China and its relationship with the north Pacific SST.Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences,2009,33(4):835-846.]
[31]Ding Yihui,Sun Ying,Wang Zunya,et al.Inter-decadal variation of the summer precipitation in China and its association with decreasing Asian summer monsoon.Part II:Possible causes.International Journal of Climatology,2009,29(13):1926-1944.
[32]吕俊梅,祝从文,琚建华,等.近百年中国东部夏季降水年代际变化特征及其原因.大气科学,2014,38(4):782-794.[Lv Junmei,Zhu Congwen,Ju Jianhua,et al.Interdecadal variability in summer precipitation over east China during the past 100 years and its possible causes.Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences,2014,38(4):782-794.]
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[35]Wang Bin,Liu Jian,Kim H J,et al.Northern Hemisphere summer monsoon intensified by mega-El Ni?o/southern oscillation and Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences,2013,110(14):5347-5352.
[36]Liu Jian,Wang Bin,Cane M A,et al.Divergent global precipitation changes induced by natural versus anthropogenic forcing.Nature,2013,493(7434):656-659.
[37]张冬峰,高学杰,罗勇,等.Reg CM4.0对一个全球模式20世纪气候变化试验的中国区域降尺度:温室气体和自然变率的贡献.科学通报,2015,60(17):1631-1642.[Zhang Dongfeng,Gao Xuejie,Luo Yong,et al.Downscaling a 20th century climate change of a global model for China from Reg CM4.0:Attributable contributions of greenhouse gas emissions and natural climate variability.Chinese Science Bulletin,2015,60(17):1631-1642.]
[38]Hurrell J W,Holland M M,Gent P R,et al.The Community Earth System Model:A framework for collaborative research.Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society,2013,94(9):1339-1360.
[39]陈晓晨,徐影,许崇海,等.CMIP5全球气候模式对中国地区降水模拟能力的评估.气候变化研究进展,2014,10(3):217-225.[Chen Xiaochen,Xu Ying,Xu Chonghai,et al.Assessment of precipitation simulations in China by CMIP5multi-models.Advances in Climate Change Research,2014,10(3):217-225.]
[40]Lei Yonghui,Hoskins B,Slingo J.Natural variability of summer rainfall over China in Had CM3.Climate Dynamics,2014,42(1-2):417-432.
[41]Hannachi A,Jolliffe I T,Stephenson D B.Empirical orthogonal functions and related techniques in atmospheric science:A review.International Journal of Climatology,2007,27(9):1119-1152.
[42]North G R.Empirical orthogonal functions and normal modes.Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences,1984,41:879-887.
[43]North G R,Bell T L,Cahalan R F,et al.Sampling errors in the estimation of empirical orthogonal functions.Monthly Weather Review,1982,110:699-706.
[44]Torrence C,Compo G P.A practical guide to wavelet analysis.Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society,1998,79(1):61-78.
[45]PAGES.Science Plan and Implementation Strategy:IGBP Report No.57.Stockholm:IGBP Secretariat,2009.
[2]WCRP.The World Climate Research Programme Implementation Plan 2010-2015.Geneva:WMO,2009.
[3]Watanabe M,Shiogama H,Tatebe H,et al.Contribution of natural decadal variability to global warming acceleration and hiatus.Nature Climate Change,2014,4(10):893-897.
[4]Kosaka Y,Xie Shangping.Recent global-warming hiatus tied to equatorial Pacific surface cooling.Nature,2013,501:403-407.
[5]Hansen J,Sato M,Ruedy R.Perception of climate change.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,2012,109(37):E2415-E2423.
[6]Dai Aiguo.Drought under global warming:A review.Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews-Climate Change,2011,2(1):45-65.
[7]Chirstopher F,Vicente B,Thomas S,et al.Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation:Special Report ofthe Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.Cambridge,UK:Cambridge University Press,2012.
[8]Meehl G A,Goddard L,Murphy J,et al.Decadal prediction:Can it be skilful?.Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society,2009,90(10):1467-1485.
[9]Cane M A.Climate science:Decadal predictions in demand.Nature Geoscience,2010,3(4):231-232.
[10]咸鹏,李崇银.国际上年代际到世纪时间尺度气候变化的研究.气候与环境研究,2001,6(3):337-353.[Xian Peng,Li Chongyin.A review of climate variability with interdecadal centennial time scale in the world.Climatic and Environmental Research,2001,6(3):337-353.]
[11]《第二次气候变化国家评估报告》编写委员会.第二次气候变化国家评估报告.北京:科学出版社,2011.[Editorial Committee of Second National Assessment Report on Climate Change.Second National Assessment Report on Climate Change.Beijing:Science Press,2011.]
[12]Hu Zengzhen.Interdecadal variability of summer climate over East Asia and its association with 500 h Pa height and global sea surface temperature.Journal of Geophysical Research,1997,102(D16):19403-19412.
[13]黄荣辉,徐予红,周连童.我国夏季降水的年代际变化及华北干旱趋势.高原气象,1999,18(4):465-476.[Huang Ronghui,Xu Yuhong,Zhou Liantong.The interdecadal variation of summer precipitations in China and the drought trend in north China.Plateau Meteorology,1999,18(4):465-476.]
[14]Kwon M H,Jhun J G,Ha K J.Decadal change in East Asian summer monsoon circulation in the mid-1990s.Geophysical Research Letters,2007,34(21):377-390.
[15]Ding Yihui,Wang Zunya,Sun Ying.Interdecadal variation of the summer precipitation in east China and its association with decreasing Asian summer monsoon.Part I:Observed evidences.International Journal of Climatology,2008,28(9):1139-1161.
[16]Zhu Yali,Wang Huijun,Zhou Wen,et al.Recent changes in the summer precipitation pattern in East China and the background circulation.Climate Dynamics,2010,36(7-8):1463-1473
[17]黄荣辉,陈际龙,刘永.我国东部夏季降水异常主模态的年代际变化及其与东亚水汽输送的关系.大气科学,2011,35(4):589-606.[Huang Ronghui,Chen Jilong,Liu Yong.Interdecadal variation of the leading modes of summertime precipitation anomalies over Eastern China and its association with water vapor transport over East Asia.Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences,2011,35(4):589-606.]
[18]Huang Ronghui,Liu Yong,Feng Tao.Interdecadal change of summer precipitation over Eastern China around the late-1990s and associated circulation anomalies,internal dynamical causes.Chinese Science Bulletin,2013,58(12):1339-1349.
[19]Li Hongmei,Dai Aiguo,Zhou Tianjun.Responses of East Asian summer monsoon to historical SST and atmospheric forcing during 1950-2000.Climate Dynamics,2010,34(4):501-514.
[20]Zhou Tianjun,Gong Daoyi,Li Jian,et al.Detecting and understanding the multi-decadal variability of the East Asian Summer Monsoon:Recent progress and state of affairs.Meteorologische Zeitschrift,2009,18(4):455-467.
[21]Wang Tao,Wang Huijun,Ottera O H,et al.Anthropogenic agent implicated as a prime driver of shift in precipitation in eastern China in the late 1970s.Atmospheric Chemistry Physics,2013,13(24):12433-12450.
[22]王艳姣,闫峰.1960-2010年中国降水区域分异及年代际变化特征.地理科学进展,2014,33(10):1354-1363.[Wang Yanjiao,Yan Feng.Regional differentiation and decadal change of precipitation in China in 1960-2010.Progress in Geography,2014,33(10):1354-1363.]
[23]吕俊梅,琚建华,江建民.近一百年中国东部区域降水的年代际跃变.大气科学,2009,33(3):524-536.[Lv Junmei,Ju Jianhua,Jiang Jianmin.Interdecadal regime shifts of regional precipitation over eastern China during the last 100 years.Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences,2009,33(3):524-526.]
[24]曾刚,孙照渤,王维强,等.东亚夏季风年代际变化:基于全球观测海表温度驱动NCAR Cam3的模拟分析.气候与环境研究,2007,12(2):211-224.[Zeng Gang,Sun Zhaobo,Wang Weichyung,et al.Interdecadal variation of east Asian summer:Monsoon simulated by NCAR Cam3 driven by global SSTs.Climatic and Environmental Research,2007,12(2):211-224.]
[25]陈红,薛峰.东亚夏季风和中国东部夏季降水年代际变化的模拟.大气科学,2013,37(5):1143-1153.[Chen Hong,Xue Feng.Numerical simulation of decadal variations in the east Asian summer monsoon and summer rainfall in eastern China.Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences,2013,37(5):1143-1153.]
[26]Ding Yihu,Ren Guoyu,Zhao Zongci,et al.Detection,causes and projection of climate change over China:An overview of recent progress.Advances in Atmospheric Sciences,24(6):954-971.
[27]周连童,黄荣辉.关于我国夏季气候年代际变化特征及其可能成因的研究.气候与环境研究,2003,8(3):274-290.[Zhou Liantong,Huang Ronghui.Research on the characteristics of inter-decadal variability of summer climate in China and its possible cause.Climatic and Environmental Research,2003,8(3):274-290.]
[28]张庆云,吕俊梅,杨莲梅,等.夏季中国降水型的年代际变化与大气内部动力过程及外强迫因子关系.大气科学,2007,31(6):1290-1300.[Zhang Qingyun,Lv Junmei,Yang Lianmei,et al.The inter-decadal variation of precipitation pattern over China during summer and its relationship with the atmospheric internal dynamic processes and extra-forcing factors.Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences,2007,31(6):1290-1300.]
[29]白爱娟,翟盘茂.中国近百年气候变化的自然原因讨论.气象科学,2007,27(5):584-590.[Bai Aijuan,Zhai Panmao.On natural causes of climate change in China.Scientia Meteorologica Sinica,2007,27(5):584-590.]
[30]邓伟涛,孙照渤,曾刚,等.中国东部夏季降水型的年代际变化及其与北太平洋海温的关系.大气科学,2009,33(4):835-846.[Deng Weitao,Sun Zhaobo,Zeng Gang,et al.Inter-decadal variation of summer precipitation pattern over eastern China and its relationship with the north Pacific SST.Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences,2009,33(4):835-846.]
[31]Ding Yihui,Sun Ying,Wang Zunya,et al.Inter-decadal variation of the summer precipitation in China and its association with decreasing Asian summer monsoon.Part II:Possible causes.International Journal of Climatology,2009,29(13):1926-1944.
[32]吕俊梅,祝从文,琚建华,等.近百年中国东部夏季降水年代际变化特征及其原因.大气科学,2014,38(4):782-794.[Lv Junmei,Zhu Congwen,Ju Jianhua,et al.Interdecadal variability in summer precipitation over east China during the past 100 years and its possible causes.Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences,2014,38(4):782-794.]
[33]Lei Yonghui,Hoskins B,Slingo J.Exploring the interplay between natural decadal variability and anthropogenic climate change in summer rainfall over China.Part I:Observational evidence.Journal of Climate,2011,24(17):4584-4599.
[34]徐康,祝从文,何金海.近50年环贝加尔湖区变暖对中国华北夏季降水的影响机理.高原气象,2011,30(2):309-317.[Xu Kang,Zhu Congwen,He Jinhai.Impact of the surface air temperature warming around Lake Baikal on trend of summer precipitation in north China in the past 50 years.Plateau Meteorology,2011,30(2):309-317.]
[35]Wang Bin,Liu Jian,Kim H J,et al.Northern Hemisphere summer monsoon intensified by mega-El Ni?o/southern oscillation and Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences,2013,110(14):5347-5352.
[36]Liu Jian,Wang Bin,Cane M A,et al.Divergent global precipitation changes induced by natural versus anthropogenic forcing.Nature,2013,493(7434):656-659.
[37]张冬峰,高学杰,罗勇,等.Reg CM4.0对一个全球模式20世纪气候变化试验的中国区域降尺度:温室气体和自然变率的贡献.科学通报,2015,60(17):1631-1642.[Zhang Dongfeng,Gao Xuejie,Luo Yong,et al.Downscaling a 20th century climate change of a global model for China from Reg CM4.0:Attributable contributions of greenhouse gas emissions and natural climate variability.Chinese Science Bulletin,2015,60(17):1631-1642.]
[38]Hurrell J W,Holland M M,Gent P R,et al.The Community Earth System Model:A framework for collaborative research.Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society,2013,94(9):1339-1360.
[39]陈晓晨,徐影,许崇海,等.CMIP5全球气候模式对中国地区降水模拟能力的评估.气候变化研究进展,2014,10(3):217-225.[Chen Xiaochen,Xu Ying,Xu Chonghai,et al.Assessment of precipitation simulations in China by CMIP5multi-models.Advances in Climate Change Research,2014,10(3):217-225.]
[40]Lei Yonghui,Hoskins B,Slingo J.Natural variability of summer rainfall over China in Had CM3.Climate Dynamics,2014,42(1-2):417-432.
[41]Hannachi A,Jolliffe I T,Stephenson D B.Empirical orthogonal functions and related techniques in atmospheric science:A review.International Journal of Climatology,2007,27(9):1119-1152.
[42]North G R.Empirical orthogonal functions and normal modes.Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences,1984,41:879-887.
[43]North G R,Bell T L,Cahalan R F,et al.Sampling errors in the estimation of empirical orthogonal functions.Monthly Weather Review,1982,110:699-706.
[44]Torrence C,Compo G P.A practical guide to wavelet analysis.Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society,1998,79(1):61-78.
[45]PAGES.Science Plan and Implementation Strategy:IGBP Report No.57.Stockholm:IGBP Secretariat,2009.