CESM模式对东亚地区环流特征的模拟检验
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摘要
利用CMAP逐月降水资料和欧洲天气预报中心ERA-interim的再分析资料,分析了CESM模式对东亚地区降水及夏季环流的模拟性能。结果表明:(1)CESM可以模拟出东亚地区大气环流、地表温度、水汽输送及降水随季节南北进退等主要特征。(2)该模式降水模拟结果与CMAP资料的对比显示,冬季降水的空间偏差主要表现为青藏高原南侧模拟降水偏多,而青藏高原西北部和日本海附近降水模拟偏少。夏季降水的空间偏差主要表现为陆地偏多,偏差最显著的区域位于青藏高原南侧,而海洋上偏少。降水偏差在季节变化上主要体现为低纬度地区雨带出现时间偏早,中高纬度地区出现时间偏晚且持续时间偏长。(3)模式模拟的夏季地表温度与ERA再分析资料相比在陆地模拟的结果明显偏低,在海洋上模拟的偏高。模式模拟的夏季500 h Pa西太副高较ERA再分析结果异常偏西至我国的江淮地区且强度偏强,这与模式模拟的夏季江淮地区降水较CMAP结果偏少密切相关。(4)夏季经向垂直环流的对比显示,模式模拟结果与ERA再分析结果的主要差异出现在青藏高原及其附近地区,模拟结果在高原的南北侧均出现明显的异常垂直环流,南侧的异常垂直环流伸展高度高,范围狭窄,这与模式模拟的夏季降水在高原南侧明显偏多有关。
This paper evaluates the performance of the CESM model for the precipitation and summer circulation over East Asia,by using the CMAP monthly precipitation data and reanalysis data,from European forecasting center. The result show that:(1)The CESM could simulate the characteristics of the circulation,surface temperature,water vapor flux and the process of the rain belt from the south to the north;(2)The comparison between CESM and CMAP data reveals a spatial deviation and the southern TP experiences an abundant simulated precipitation while the western TP and Japan Sea are prone to the low precipitation during the winter period. The spatial deviation of the summer precipitation shows that the simulated precipitation is concentrated on land,mainly in the south of Tibetan plateau region. Moreover,the simulated precipitation shows a sparse distribution over the Sea. The temporal variation shows that the simulated rain belt is earlier than the observations in the low latitude,later in the mid-high latitude and maintain longer.(3)Compared to the ERA data,the simulated summer surface temperature deviation from CESM shows the low temperature on the land and high temperature over the sea. The simulated subtropical high pressure at 500 h Pa was westward and a stronger in intense than the observed in the summer,which was not conducive to the precipitation in Jiang Huai region of China.(4)The comparison of meridional circulation between CESM and ERA data reveals differences and the southern TP appears a high and narrow circulation, which is in contrast with the simulated precipitation situation.
This paper evaluates the performance of the CESM model for the precipitation and summer circulation over East Asia,by using the CMAP monthly precipitation data and reanalysis data,from European forecasting center. The result show that:(1)The CESM could simulate the characteristics of the circulation,surface temperature,water vapor flux and the process of the rain belt from the south to the north;(2)The comparison between CESM and CMAP data reveals a spatial deviation and the southern TP experiences an abundant simulated precipitation while the western TP and Japan Sea are prone to the low precipitation during the winter period. The spatial deviation of the summer precipitation shows that the simulated precipitation is concentrated on land,mainly in the south of Tibetan plateau region. Moreover,the simulated precipitation shows a sparse distribution over the Sea. The temporal variation shows that the simulated rain belt is earlier than the observations in the low latitude,later in the mid-high latitude and maintain longer.(3)Compared to the ERA data,the simulated summer surface temperature deviation from CESM shows the low temperature on the land and high temperature over the sea. The simulated subtropical high pressure at 500 h Pa was westward and a stronger in intense than the observed in the summer,which was not conducive to the precipitation in Jiang Huai region of China.(4)The comparison of meridional circulation between CESM and ERA data reveals differences and the southern TP appears a high and narrow circulation, which is in contrast with the simulated precipitation situation.
引文
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[14]田雨润,李国平,刘云丰.三种再分析资料计算青藏高原大气热源的比较[J].沙漠与绿洲气象,2017,11(4):1-8.
[15]白磊.ERA-interim和NCEP/NCAR再分析数据气温和气压值在中天山山区适用性分析[J].沙漠与绿洲气象,2013,7(3):51-56.
[16]聂肃平,罗勇,李伟平,等.一套新的30年全球台站逐日降水资料集:质量控制与评估[J].气候变化研究进展,2011,7(4):235-242.
[17]Chen Q Y,Yu Y Q,Qian Y F.Simulation of the 100h Pa South Asian summer monsoon with IAP CGCM.Advances in Atmospheric Sciences,1997,14(4):461-472.
[2]黄荣辉,蔡榕硕,陈际龙,等.我国旱涝气候灾害的年代际变化及其与东亚气候系统变化的关系[J].大气科学,2006,30(5):730-743.
[3]贾小龙,陈丽娟,高辉,等.我国短期气候预测技术进展[J].应用气象学报,2013,24(6):641-655.
[4]Song Feng Fei,Zhou Tianjun.Interannual variability of East Asian summer monsoon simulated by CMIP3 and CMIP5 AGCMs:Skill dependence on Indian Oceanwestern Pacific anticyclone teleconnection[J].J.Climate,2014,27(4):1679-1697.
[5]Zou Liwei,Zhou Tianjun.Can a regional oceanatmosphere coupled model improve the simulation of the interannual variability of the western North Pacific summer monsoon[J].J.Climate,2013,26(7):2353-2367.
[6]王淑瑜,熊喆.5个海气耦合模式模拟东亚区域气候能力的初步分析[J].气候与环境研究,2000,9(2):240-250.
[7]张莉,丁一汇,孙颖.全球海气耦合模式对东亚季风降水模拟的检验[J].大气科学,2008,32(2):261-276.
[8]苏琪骅.基于CMIP5模式在中国地区温度与降水的模拟评估及集合预报方法研究[D].安徽:中国科学技术大学,2017:1-51.
[9]Song Feng Fei,Zhou Tianjun,Qian Yun.Responses of East Asian summer monsoon to natural and anthropogenic forcing in the 17 latest CMIP5 models[J].Geophys.Res.Lett.,2014,41(2):596-603.
[10]韩春凤,刘健,王志远.通用地球系统模式对亚洲夏季风降水的模拟能力评估.气象科学,2017,37(2):151-160.
[11]Danabasoglu G,Bates S C,Briegleb B P,et al.The CCSM4 Ocean Component[J].Journal of Climate,2012,25(5):1361-1389.
[12]Zhang G J,Norman A.Mc Farlance.Sensitivity of climate simulations to the parameterization of cumulus convection in the Canadian climate centre general circulation model[J].Atmosphere-Ocean,1995,33(3):407-446.
[13]Xie P.,Arkin P.Global precipitation:a 17-year monthly analysis based on gauge observations,satellite estimates,and numerical model outputs[J].Bull.Amer.Meteor.Soc.,1997,78:2539-2558.
[14]田雨润,李国平,刘云丰.三种再分析资料计算青藏高原大气热源的比较[J].沙漠与绿洲气象,2017,11(4):1-8.
[15]白磊.ERA-interim和NCEP/NCAR再分析数据气温和气压值在中天山山区适用性分析[J].沙漠与绿洲气象,2013,7(3):51-56.
[16]聂肃平,罗勇,李伟平,等.一套新的30年全球台站逐日降水资料集:质量控制与评估[J].气候变化研究进展,2011,7(4):235-242.
[17]Chen Q Y,Yu Y Q,Qian Y F.Simulation of the 100h Pa South Asian summer monsoon with IAP CGCM.Advances in Atmospheric Sciences,1997,14(4):461-472.