无定河流域不同地貌区径流变化归因分析
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摘要
分析了无定河流域干流与其支流(黄土丘陵区的大理河和风沙区的海流兔河)的年径流变化(1960—2012)及其成因,并预测了其径流的变化趋势。结果表明:无定河及其不同地貌区支流海流兔河和大理河流域1960—2012年径流量均显著下降,但年降水量未发生显著变化;无定河和海流兔河流域年蒸散量未发生显著变化,仅大理河流域年蒸散量在1990s年代后期显著增加。无定河流域径流变化突变点发生在1979年和1996年,海流兔河流域径流变化突变点在1971年和1990年,而大理河流域径流突变点发生在1971年。人类活动对大理河流域1972—2012年径流减少的贡献大约占50%,对海流兔河流域1972—1990年和1991—2012年两个时期径流减少的贡献率分别为44.4%和82.4%。未来,无定河及其支流年径流量均呈持续下降趋势。归因分析表明大规模的水土保持治理措施减少了大理河流域侵蚀产沙量的同时,也在一定程度上减少了大理河流域的径流量,而过度的农田灌溉引水是海流兔河径流量下降的主要原因。因此,未来在大理河流域要优化现有植被建设布局,减少流域蒸散发,减缓径流下降;在海流兔河流域要进一步退耕还林(草),适当控制农田灌溉面积,提高灌溉用水效率,在减少灌溉用水的同时提高流域水源涵养能力。
In this study, the runoff changes and their attribution from 1960 to 2012 for Wuding River basin and its two tributaries, Hailiutu River in the wind-sand region and Dali River in the Loess hilly region, were analyzed. The future trends in runoff changes in the three rivers were also predicted. The results revealed that runoff of the Wuding River, Hailiutu River, and Dali rivers decreased significantly during the period of 1960 to 2012, although the annual rainfall in the three river basins did not change significantly during this period. The annual evapotranspiration of the Wuding River and Hailiu River was nearly constant, while the annual evapotranspiration of Dali River has increased significantly since the late 1990 s. Abrupt change points of runoff were detected in 1979 and 1996 of Wuding River, 1971 and 1990 of Hailiutu River, and 1971 of Dali Rive, respectively. Human activities accounted for approximately 50% of the runoff reduction in Dali River from 1972 to 2012 and 44.4% in Hailiutu River from 1972 to 1990, 82.4% from 1991 to 2012, respectively. In the future, the annual runoff of the Wuding River and its two tributaries, Dalihe River and Hailiutu River would continue to decline. Attribution analysis revealed that large-scale soil and water conservation measures are the main reasons for sediment and runoff reduction in Dali River. The water conservancy projects′ constructions and farmland irrigation are the main reasons for runoff reduction in Hailiutu River. Therefore, it is necessary to optimize the existing vegetation pattern to reduce evapotranspiration and decelerate the decrease rate of runoff in the Dali River basin. In the Hailiutu River basin, it is necessary to conduct "Grain to Green", to control the irrigation area of farmland, improve the efficiency of irrigation water, and reduce the amount of used irrigation water, at the same time to increase the water conservation capacity as well.
In this study, the runoff changes and their attribution from 1960 to 2012 for Wuding River basin and its two tributaries, Hailiutu River in the wind-sand region and Dali River in the Loess hilly region, were analyzed. The future trends in runoff changes in the three rivers were also predicted. The results revealed that runoff of the Wuding River, Hailiutu River, and Dali rivers decreased significantly during the period of 1960 to 2012, although the annual rainfall in the three river basins did not change significantly during this period. The annual evapotranspiration of the Wuding River and Hailiu River was nearly constant, while the annual evapotranspiration of Dali River has increased significantly since the late 1990 s. Abrupt change points of runoff were detected in 1979 and 1996 of Wuding River, 1971 and 1990 of Hailiutu River, and 1971 of Dali Rive, respectively. Human activities accounted for approximately 50% of the runoff reduction in Dali River from 1972 to 2012 and 44.4% in Hailiutu River from 1972 to 1990, 82.4% from 1991 to 2012, respectively. In the future, the annual runoff of the Wuding River and its two tributaries, Dalihe River and Hailiutu River would continue to decline. Attribution analysis revealed that large-scale soil and water conservation measures are the main reasons for sediment and runoff reduction in Dali River. The water conservancy projects′ constructions and farmland irrigation are the main reasons for runoff reduction in Hailiutu River. Therefore, it is necessary to optimize the existing vegetation pattern to reduce evapotranspiration and decelerate the decrease rate of runoff in the Dali River basin. In the Hailiutu River basin, it is necessary to conduct "Grain to Green", to control the irrigation area of farmland, improve the efficiency of irrigation water, and reduce the amount of used irrigation water, at the same time to increase the water conservation capacity as well.
引文
[1] 刘国彬,上官周平,姚文艺,杨勤科,赵敏娟,党小虎,郭明航,王国梁,王兵.黄土高原生态工程的生态成效.中国科学院院刊,2017,32(1):11- 19.
[2] Deng L,Shangguan Z P,Li R.Effects of the grain-for-green program on soil erosion in China.International Journal of Sediment Research,2012,27(1):120- 127.
[3] 胡春宏.黄河水沙变化与治理方略研究.水力发电学报,2016,35(10):1- 11.
[4] Li E H,Mu X M,Zhao G J,Gao P.Multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis of streamflow in the Yellow River basin,China.Water,2015,7(4):1670- 1686.
[5] 周俊菊,雷莉,石培基,王兰英,魏伟,刘海猛.石羊河流域河川径流对气候与土地利用变化的响应.生态学报,2015,35(11):3788- 3796.
[6] 李志,刘文兆,郑粉莉,胡宏昌.黄土塬区气候变化和人类活动对径流的影响.生态学报,2010,30(9):2379- 2386.
[7] 高忠咏,赵爱军,冯天梅,张鑫.秃尾河流域年径流变化特性分析.水资源与水工程学报,2014,25(2):153- 157.
[8] 颜明,孙莉英,闫云霞,许炯心.风水两相作用和人类活动对无定河粗泥沙输沙量的影响.水土保持通报,2012,32(6):89- 92.
[9] 谭节升,阎文哲.无定河流域综合治理调查.人民黄河,1983,(4):53- 57.
[10] 王玲,夏军,张学成.无定河20世纪90年代入黄水量减少成因分析.应用基础与工程科学学报,2006,14(4):463- 469.
[11] 张鑫,蔡焕杰,尹晓楠.基于DFA的无定河径流长期变化趋势及持续性研究.生态环境学报,2010,19(1):208- 211.
[12] 张健,李同昇,张俊辉,徐象平.1933—2012年无定河径流突变与周期特征诊断.地理科学,2016,36(3):475- 480.
[13] 周园园,师长兴,杜俊,范小黎.无定河流域1956—2009年径流量变化及其影响因素.自然资源学报,2012,27(5):856- 865.
[14] 王随继.无定河流域不同地貌区水沙过程对比.地理研究,2007,26(3):508- 517.
[15] 杨媛媛,李占斌,任宗萍,高海东.人类活动对无定河流域不同地貌区水沙变化的影响.泥沙研究,2017,42(5):50- 56.
[16] 高鹏,穆兴民,李锐,王炜.黄河支流无定河水沙变化趋势及其驱动因素.泥沙研究,2009,(5):22- 28.
[17] 任宗萍,张光辉,杨勤科.近50年延河流域水沙变化特征及其原因分析.水文,2012,32(5):81- 86.
[18] 秦丽欢,周敬祥,李叙勇,曾庆慧.密云水库上游径流变化趋势及影响因素.生态学报,2018,38(6):1941- 1951.
[19] 封国林,龚志强,董文杰,李建平.基于启发式分割算法的气候突变检测研究.物理学报,2005,54(11):5494- 5499.
[20] Roderick M L,Farquhar G D.A simple framework for relating variations in runoff to variations in climatic conditions and catchment properties.Water Resources Research,2011,47(12):W00G07.
[21] Yang H B,Yang D W,Lei Z D,Sun F B.New analytical derivation of the mean annual water-energy balance equation.Water Resources Research,2008,44(3):W03410.
[22] 张树磊,杨大文,杨汉波,雷慧闽.1960—2010年中国主要流域径流量减小原因探讨分析.水科学进展,2015,26(5):605- 613.
[23] Hurst H E,Black R P,Simaika Y M.Long-term storage:an experimental study.Journal of the Royal Statistical Society,1966,129(4):591- 593.
[24] 冯新灵,冯自立,罗隆诚,邱丽丽,刘鹏.青藏高原冷暖气候变化趋势的R/S分析及Hurst指数试验研究.干旱区地理,2008,31(2):175- 181.
[25] 冉大川,李占斌,张志萍,李鹏,罗全华.大理河流域水土保持措施减沙效益与影响因素关系分析.中国水土保持科学,2010,8(4):1- 6.
[26] 冉大川,李占斌,郭聪,李鹏,申震洲.大理河流域坝库工程对产流产沙的影响.人民黄河,2009,31(8):71- 72.
[27] 高海东,贾莲莲,李占斌,徐国策,赵宾华.基于图论的淤地坝对径流影响的机制.中国水土保持科学,2015,13(4):1- 8.
[28] 刘晓燕,杨胜天,李晓宇,周旭,罗娅,党素珍.黄河主要来沙区林草植被变化及对产流产沙的影响机制.中国科学:技术科学,2015,45(10):1052- 1059.
[29] Wang S,Fu B J,Piao S L,Lü Y H,Ciais P,Feng X M,Wang Y F.Reduced sediment transport in the Yellow River due to anthropogenic changes.Nature Geoscience,2016,9(1):38- 41.
[30] 董佳秋,常亮.海流兔河径流特性变化及影响分析.水资源与水工程学报,2014,25(1):144- 147.
[2] Deng L,Shangguan Z P,Li R.Effects of the grain-for-green program on soil erosion in China.International Journal of Sediment Research,2012,27(1):120- 127.
[3] 胡春宏.黄河水沙变化与治理方略研究.水力发电学报,2016,35(10):1- 11.
[4] Li E H,Mu X M,Zhao G J,Gao P.Multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis of streamflow in the Yellow River basin,China.Water,2015,7(4):1670- 1686.
[5] 周俊菊,雷莉,石培基,王兰英,魏伟,刘海猛.石羊河流域河川径流对气候与土地利用变化的响应.生态学报,2015,35(11):3788- 3796.
[6] 李志,刘文兆,郑粉莉,胡宏昌.黄土塬区气候变化和人类活动对径流的影响.生态学报,2010,30(9):2379- 2386.
[7] 高忠咏,赵爱军,冯天梅,张鑫.秃尾河流域年径流变化特性分析.水资源与水工程学报,2014,25(2):153- 157.
[8] 颜明,孙莉英,闫云霞,许炯心.风水两相作用和人类活动对无定河粗泥沙输沙量的影响.水土保持通报,2012,32(6):89- 92.
[9] 谭节升,阎文哲.无定河流域综合治理调查.人民黄河,1983,(4):53- 57.
[10] 王玲,夏军,张学成.无定河20世纪90年代入黄水量减少成因分析.应用基础与工程科学学报,2006,14(4):463- 469.
[11] 张鑫,蔡焕杰,尹晓楠.基于DFA的无定河径流长期变化趋势及持续性研究.生态环境学报,2010,19(1):208- 211.
[12] 张健,李同昇,张俊辉,徐象平.1933—2012年无定河径流突变与周期特征诊断.地理科学,2016,36(3):475- 480.
[13] 周园园,师长兴,杜俊,范小黎.无定河流域1956—2009年径流量变化及其影响因素.自然资源学报,2012,27(5):856- 865.
[14] 王随继.无定河流域不同地貌区水沙过程对比.地理研究,2007,26(3):508- 517.
[15] 杨媛媛,李占斌,任宗萍,高海东.人类活动对无定河流域不同地貌区水沙变化的影响.泥沙研究,2017,42(5):50- 56.
[16] 高鹏,穆兴民,李锐,王炜.黄河支流无定河水沙变化趋势及其驱动因素.泥沙研究,2009,(5):22- 28.
[17] 任宗萍,张光辉,杨勤科.近50年延河流域水沙变化特征及其原因分析.水文,2012,32(5):81- 86.
[18] 秦丽欢,周敬祥,李叙勇,曾庆慧.密云水库上游径流变化趋势及影响因素.生态学报,2018,38(6):1941- 1951.
[19] 封国林,龚志强,董文杰,李建平.基于启发式分割算法的气候突变检测研究.物理学报,2005,54(11):5494- 5499.
[20] Roderick M L,Farquhar G D.A simple framework for relating variations in runoff to variations in climatic conditions and catchment properties.Water Resources Research,2011,47(12):W00G07.
[21] Yang H B,Yang D W,Lei Z D,Sun F B.New analytical derivation of the mean annual water-energy balance equation.Water Resources Research,2008,44(3):W03410.
[22] 张树磊,杨大文,杨汉波,雷慧闽.1960—2010年中国主要流域径流量减小原因探讨分析.水科学进展,2015,26(5):605- 613.
[23] Hurst H E,Black R P,Simaika Y M.Long-term storage:an experimental study.Journal of the Royal Statistical Society,1966,129(4):591- 593.
[24] 冯新灵,冯自立,罗隆诚,邱丽丽,刘鹏.青藏高原冷暖气候变化趋势的R/S分析及Hurst指数试验研究.干旱区地理,2008,31(2):175- 181.
[25] 冉大川,李占斌,张志萍,李鹏,罗全华.大理河流域水土保持措施减沙效益与影响因素关系分析.中国水土保持科学,2010,8(4):1- 6.
[26] 冉大川,李占斌,郭聪,李鹏,申震洲.大理河流域坝库工程对产流产沙的影响.人民黄河,2009,31(8):71- 72.
[27] 高海东,贾莲莲,李占斌,徐国策,赵宾华.基于图论的淤地坝对径流影响的机制.中国水土保持科学,2015,13(4):1- 8.
[28] 刘晓燕,杨胜天,李晓宇,周旭,罗娅,党素珍.黄河主要来沙区林草植被变化及对产流产沙的影响机制.中国科学:技术科学,2015,45(10):1052- 1059.
[29] Wang S,Fu B J,Piao S L,Lü Y H,Ciais P,Feng X M,Wang Y F.Reduced sediment transport in the Yellow River due to anthropogenic changes.Nature Geoscience,2016,9(1):38- 41.
[30] 董佳秋,常亮.海流兔河径流特性变化及影响分析.水资源与水工程学报,2014,25(1):144- 147.