基于概率统计的土石混合体边坡可靠度分析方法
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摘要
为确切描述边坡实际状态,更准确评估边坡稳定性,提出一种基于概率统计的边坡可靠度分析方法。该方法考虑土石混合体边坡平均强度的不确定性和强度在空间上的变异性,综合利用蒙特卡罗方法和连续非连续单元法(CDEM)计算评估边坡可靠程度;将坡体表面的相对位移量作为基本指标,从定性和定量2个方面确定边坡的失稳标准;通过分析一个典型的土石混合体边坡,获得边坡在不同强度分布和强度等级下的可靠度,并结合一个实例对文中方法的有效性进行验证。结果表明:边坡强度的分布特性对边坡的变形失稳结果有较大影响,利用基于概率统计的可靠度分析方法可建立边坡稳定性与岩土材料强度特性的关系。
In order to describe the practical state of a slope,and to evaluate the stability of a slope more accurately,a reliability analysis method of earth-rock aggregate slope based on probability statistics was worked out. Dual variability of the slope was considered,including uncertainty of the average strength and spatial variation of the strength of a slope. The reliability of a slope was calculated and evaluated with the Monte Carlo method and CDEM. The failure criteria were proposed in qualitative and quantitative way based on the relative displacement between monitoring points. Through the analysis of a typical earth-rock aggregate slope,the reliability of the slope was obtained. The result shows that deformation and failure of a slope are well dependent on the distributive property of the strength,and the correlation between the strength distribution of the material and the stability of a slope can be found with the reliability analysis method based on probability statistics.
In order to describe the practical state of a slope,and to evaluate the stability of a slope more accurately,a reliability analysis method of earth-rock aggregate slope based on probability statistics was worked out. Dual variability of the slope was considered,including uncertainty of the average strength and spatial variation of the strength of a slope. The reliability of a slope was calculated and evaluated with the Monte Carlo method and CDEM. The failure criteria were proposed in qualitative and quantitative way based on the relative displacement between monitoring points. Through the analysis of a typical earth-rock aggregate slope,the reliability of the slope was obtained. The result shows that deformation and failure of a slope are well dependent on the distributive property of the strength,and the correlation between the strength distribution of the material and the stability of a slope can be found with the reliability analysis method based on probability statistics.
引文
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[2]BISHOP A W.The use of the slip circle in stability analysis of slopes[J].Geotechnique,1955,5(1):7-17.
[3]ZHOU Xiaoping,CHENG Hao.The long-term stability analysis of 3D creeping slopes using the displacement-based rigorous limit equilibrium method[J].Engineering Geology,2015,195:292-300.
[4]王东,张晓敏,曹兰柱,等.凹边坡稳定性三维极限平衡法研究与应用[J].中国安全科学学报,2016,26(7):91-95.WANG Dong,ZHANG Xiaomin,CAO Lanzhu,et al.3D limit-equilibrium method for concave slope and its application[J].China Safety Science Journal,2016,26(7):91-95.
[5]BONILLA-Sierra V,SCHOLTES L,DONZE F V,et al.Rock slope stability analysis using photogrammetric data and DFN-DEM modelling[J].Acta Geotechnica,2015,10(4):497-511.
[6]莫海鸿,唐超宏,刘少跃.应用模式搜索法寻找最危险滑动圆弧[J].岩土工程学报,1999,21(6):696-699.MO Haihong,TANG Chaohong,LIU Shaoyue.Determination of most dangerous slip surface with pat-tern search method[J].Chinese Journal of Geotechnical Engineering,1999,21(6):696-699.
[7]尹小涛,王水林.基于可靠度理论的滑坡稳定性及其影响因素分析[J].岩土力学,2008,29(6):1 551-1 556.YIN Xiaotao,WANG Shuilin.Stability and its influential factors analysis of landslides based on reliability theory[J].Rock and Soil Mechanics,2008,29(6):1 551-1 556.
[8]曹兰柱,王珍,王东,等.露天矿滑坡预警理论与方法研究[J].中国安全科学学报,2017,27(3):163-168.CAO Lanzhu,WANG Zhen,WANG Dong,et al.Research on theory and method of landslide early warning in open-pit mine[J].China Safety Science Journal,2017,27(3):163-168.
[9]LI Shihai,TANG Dehong,WANG Jie.A two-scale contact model for collisions between blocks in CDEM[J].Science China Technological Sciences,2015,58(9):1 596-1 603.
[10]李世海,冯春,周东.滑坡研究中的力学方法[M].北京:科学出版社,2018.3:400-402.