基于生态-经济权衡的京津冀城市群土地利用优化配置
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摘要
探索生态保护与经济发展的权衡关系,并利用该权衡关系协调土地利用优化配置是解决城市群经济与生态协调发展难题的重要途径,已成为目前的一个研究热点。论文针对京津冀城市群生态友好型协同发展的需求,设置生态系统服务价值最大化和经济价值最大化2种优化目标,每种目标下再设置"生态保护""统筹兼顾""粮食安全"和"经济发展"4种土地利用情景,采用CLUE-S模型模拟2025年京津冀城市群在不同情景下的土地利用空间配置格局,及其生态系统服务价值、经济价值在不同目标的各种情景下的变化。研究结果表明:相比2015年,2025年在不同目标不同情景下,各类土地利用面积的数量变化和空间格局均有较大不同,且生态目标和经济目标下不同情景的土地利用配置不同。生态系统服务价值在生态目标生态保护情景下最大,为14423.58亿元;而经济价值则在经济目标经济发展情景下最大,为96771.49亿元。从土地利用变化的空间分布上来看,生态用地中林地与草地的增加多出现在坝上高原和燕山与太行山山地,水体的增加则主要分布在东部沿海地区。研究认为,生态效益与经济效益间存在权衡关系,基于生态-经济权衡的土地利用优化研究结果对未来京津冀城市群生态实践工作有较大的参考价值。
In order to achieve harmonious ecological and economic development in urban agglomerations,it is important to explore the trade-offs between environmental protection and economic development,and use this knowledge to optimize land use allocation.This study aimed to simulate land use changes in the Beijing-TianjinHebei urban agglomeration with different goals and under different scenarios in 2025 to identify the optimal land use allocation strategies based on the trade-offs between ecological and economic benefits.In order to meet the land use demands for environment-friendly development in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration,we developed two optimization goals—ecosystem services value maximization and economic value maximization,and four land use scenarios—environmental protection,balanced development,food security,and economic development focus.A CLUE-S model was built to simulate and predict the optimal land use allocation strategy.The results show that the optimal land use allocations with the ecosystem services maximization goal were very different comparing to that with the economic value maximization goal.The ecosystem services value is estimated to be approximately 1442.36 billion Yuan with the ecosystem services maximization goal and under the environmental protection scenarios,more than that with the economic value maximization goal and under the same scenario.Spatially,the increase of ecologically beneficial land-use types,including forest land and grassland,is more often seen in the Bashang Plateau,Yanshan Mountains,and Taihang Mountains.The increase of water areas often occurs in coastal regions in the east.There are significant trade-offs between ecosystem services value maximization and economic value maximization.The results of this trade-off analysis can provide a basis for future ecological projects in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration.
In order to achieve harmonious ecological and economic development in urban agglomerations,it is important to explore the trade-offs between environmental protection and economic development,and use this knowledge to optimize land use allocation.This study aimed to simulate land use changes in the Beijing-TianjinHebei urban agglomeration with different goals and under different scenarios in 2025 to identify the optimal land use allocation strategies based on the trade-offs between ecological and economic benefits.In order to meet the land use demands for environment-friendly development in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration,we developed two optimization goals—ecosystem services value maximization and economic value maximization,and four land use scenarios—environmental protection,balanced development,food security,and economic development focus.A CLUE-S model was built to simulate and predict the optimal land use allocation strategy.The results show that the optimal land use allocations with the ecosystem services maximization goal were very different comparing to that with the economic value maximization goal.The ecosystem services value is estimated to be approximately 1442.36 billion Yuan with the ecosystem services maximization goal and under the environmental protection scenarios,more than that with the economic value maximization goal and under the same scenario.Spatially,the increase of ecologically beneficial land-use types,including forest land and grassland,is more often seen in the Bashang Plateau,Yanshan Mountains,and Taihang Mountains.The increase of water areas often occurs in coastal regions in the east.There are significant trade-offs between ecosystem services value maximization and economic value maximization.The results of this trade-off analysis can provide a basis for future ecological projects in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration.
引文
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方创琳,周成虎,顾朝林,等.2016.特大城市群地区城镇化与生态环境交互耦合效应解析的理论框架及技术路径[J].地理学报,71(4):531-550.[Fang C L,Zhou C H,Gu C L,et al.2016.Theoretical analysis of interactive coupled effects between urbanization and eco-environment in mega-urban agglomerations.Acta Geographica Sinica,71(4):531-550.]
龚建周,刘彦随,张灵.2010.广州市土地利用结构优化配置及其潜力[J].地理学报,65(11):1391-1400.[Gong J Z,Liu Y S,Zhang L.2010.The optimal allocation of land use and its potential appraisal in Guangzhou City.Acta Geographica Sinica,65(11):1391-1400.]
郭小燕,刘学录,王联国.2016.以提高生态系统服务为导向的土地利用优化研究:以兰州市为例[J].生态学报,36(24):7992-8001.[Guo X Y,Liu X L,Wang L G.2016.Land use optimization in order to improve ecosystem service:A case of Lanzhou City.Acta Ecologica Sinica,36(24):7992-8001.]
李双成,等.2014.生态系统服务地理学[M].北京:科学出版社:1-58.[Li S C,et al.2014.The geography of ecosystem services.Beijing,China:Science Press:1-58.]
李天猜,李韦,冯长春,等.2016.湘江新区土地利用结构多目标规划及决策偏好分析[J].地域研究与开发,35(1):132-138.[Li T C,Li W,Feng C C,et al.2016.Multi-objective land use planning and decision analysis in Xiangjiang new area.Areal Research and Development,35(1):132-138.]
刘超,许月卿,孙丕苓,等.2016.土地利用多功能性研究进展与展望[J].地理科学进展,35(9):1087-1099.[Liu C,Xu Y Q,Sun P L,et al.2016.Progress and prospects of multi-functionality of land use research.Progress in Geography,35(9):1087-1099.]
刘金龙,马程,王阳,等.2013.基于径向基函数网络的京津冀地区生态系统服务脆弱性评估[J].北京大学学报(自然科学版),49(6):1040-1046.[Liu J L,Ma C,Wang Y,et al.2013.Assessing the vulnerability of ecosystem services of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei area based on radial basis function network.Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Pekinensis,49(6):1040-1046.]
刘静怡,蔡永立,於家,等.2013.基于CLUE-S和灰色线性规划的嘉兴北部土地利用优化配置研究[J].生态与农村环境学报,29(4):529-536.[Liu J Y,Cai Y L,Yu J,et al.2013.Optimization of land use arrangement in North Jiaxing based on CLUE-S and grey linear programming models.Journal of Ecology and Rural Environment,29(4):529-536.]
马程,李双成,刘金龙,等.2013.基于SOFM网络的京津冀地区生态系统服务分区[J].地理科学进展,32(9):1383-1393.[Ma C,Li S C,Liu J L,et al.2013.Regionalization of ecosystem services of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei area based on SOFM neural network.Progress in Geography,32(9):1383-1393.]
王丽艳,张学儒,张华,等.2010.CLUE-S模型原理与结构及其应用进展[J].地理与地理信息科学,26(3):73-77.[Wang L Y,Zhang X R,Zhang H,et al.2010.Principle and structure of CLUE-S model and its progresses.Geography and Geo-Information Science,26(3):73-77.]
王月健,丁武泉,谢付杰.2010.基于线性规划法的轮台县土地利用结构优化[J].安徽农业科学,38(9):4733-4734.[Wang Y J,Ding W Q,Xie F J.2010.Optimization on land use structure in Luntai County based on linear programing method.Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences,38(9):4733-4734.]
谢高地,张彩霞,张雷明,等.2015.基于单位面积价值当量因子的生态系统服务价值化方法改进[J].自然资源学报,30(8):1243-1254.[Xie G D,Zhang C X,Zhang L M,et al.2015.Improvement of the evaluation method for ecosystem service value based on per unit area.Journal of Natural Resources,30(8):1243-1254.]
许小亮,李鑫,肖长江,等.2016.基于CLUE-S模型的不同情景下区域土地利用布局优化[J].生态学报,36(17):5401-5410.[Xu X L,Li X,Xiao C J,et al.2016.Land use layout optimization under different scenarios by using the CLUE-S model.Acta Ecologica Sinica,36(17):5401-5410.]
叶浩,濮励杰.2010.苏州市土地利用变化对生态系统固碳能力影响研究[J].中国土地科学,24(3):60-64.[Ye H,Pu L J.2010.Study on the impact of land use change on the capability of carbon sequestration of ecosystem in Suzhou City.China Land Science,24(3):60-64.]
张鸿辉,曾永年,谭荣,等.2011.多智能体区域土地利用优化配置模型及其应用[J].地理学报,66(7):972-984.[Zhang H H,Zeng Y N,Tan R,et al.2011.A model for regional land use optimization allocation based on multiagent system and its application.Acta Geographica Sinica,66(7):972-984.]
张佳会,黄全富,王力.2001.最优线性规划法在土地利用总体规划中的应用[J].重庆师范大学学报(自然科学版),18(1):36-39.[Zhang J H,Wang Q F,Wang L.2001.The utilization of the optimum linear plan method in the masterplan of land utilization.Journal of Chongqing Normal University(Natural Science Edition),18(1):36-39.]
赵阳,张艺,涂志华,等.2014.基于生态服务价值的多目标水源地土地利用结构优化[J].中国环境科学,34(1):232-238.[Zhao Y,Zhang Y,Tu Z H,et al.2014.Multi-objective optimization of land use structures for water resources area based on eco-service value.China Environment Science,34(1):232-238.]
Blumstein M,Thompson J R.2015.Land-use impacts on the quantity and configuration of ecosystem service provisioning in Massachusetts,USA[J].Journal of Applied Ecology,52(8):1009-1019.
Verburg P H,Veldkamp A.2004.Projecting land use transitions at forest fringes in the Philippines at two spatial scales[J].Land scape Ecology,19(1):77-98.
Verburg P H,Veldkamp A,Dekoning G H J,et al.1999.A spatial explicit allocation procedure for modelling the pattern of land use change based upon actual land use[J].Ecological Modelling,116(1):45-61.
陈卓,李秀霞,徐龙.2013.基于经济-生态双重目标的土地结构优化:以吉林省西部为例[J].国土资源科技管理,30(5):28-34.[Chen Z,Li X X,Xu L.2013.Optimization of land use structure based on dual targets of ecology and economy:A case study of west of Jilin Province.Scientific and Technological Management of Land and Resources,30(5):28-34.]
方创琳,周成虎,顾朝林,等.2016.特大城市群地区城镇化与生态环境交互耦合效应解析的理论框架及技术路径[J].地理学报,71(4):531-550.[Fang C L,Zhou C H,Gu C L,et al.2016.Theoretical analysis of interactive coupled effects between urbanization and eco-environment in mega-urban agglomerations.Acta Geographica Sinica,71(4):531-550.]
龚建周,刘彦随,张灵.2010.广州市土地利用结构优化配置及其潜力[J].地理学报,65(11):1391-1400.[Gong J Z,Liu Y S,Zhang L.2010.The optimal allocation of land use and its potential appraisal in Guangzhou City.Acta Geographica Sinica,65(11):1391-1400.]
郭小燕,刘学录,王联国.2016.以提高生态系统服务为导向的土地利用优化研究:以兰州市为例[J].生态学报,36(24):7992-8001.[Guo X Y,Liu X L,Wang L G.2016.Land use optimization in order to improve ecosystem service:A case of Lanzhou City.Acta Ecologica Sinica,36(24):7992-8001.]
李双成,等.2014.生态系统服务地理学[M].北京:科学出版社:1-58.[Li S C,et al.2014.The geography of ecosystem services.Beijing,China:Science Press:1-58.]
李天猜,李韦,冯长春,等.2016.湘江新区土地利用结构多目标规划及决策偏好分析[J].地域研究与开发,35(1):132-138.[Li T C,Li W,Feng C C,et al.2016.Multi-objective land use planning and decision analysis in Xiangjiang new area.Areal Research and Development,35(1):132-138.]
刘超,许月卿,孙丕苓,等.2016.土地利用多功能性研究进展与展望[J].地理科学进展,35(9):1087-1099.[Liu C,Xu Y Q,Sun P L,et al.2016.Progress and prospects of multi-functionality of land use research.Progress in Geography,35(9):1087-1099.]
刘金龙,马程,王阳,等.2013.基于径向基函数网络的京津冀地区生态系统服务脆弱性评估[J].北京大学学报(自然科学版),49(6):1040-1046.[Liu J L,Ma C,Wang Y,et al.2013.Assessing the vulnerability of ecosystem services of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei area based on radial basis function network.Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Pekinensis,49(6):1040-1046.]
刘静怡,蔡永立,於家,等.2013.基于CLUE-S和灰色线性规划的嘉兴北部土地利用优化配置研究[J].生态与农村环境学报,29(4):529-536.[Liu J Y,Cai Y L,Yu J,et al.2013.Optimization of land use arrangement in North Jiaxing based on CLUE-S and grey linear programming models.Journal of Ecology and Rural Environment,29(4):529-536.]
马程,李双成,刘金龙,等.2013.基于SOFM网络的京津冀地区生态系统服务分区[J].地理科学进展,32(9):1383-1393.[Ma C,Li S C,Liu J L,et al.2013.Regionalization of ecosystem services of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei area based on SOFM neural network.Progress in Geography,32(9):1383-1393.]
王丽艳,张学儒,张华,等.2010.CLUE-S模型原理与结构及其应用进展[J].地理与地理信息科学,26(3):73-77.[Wang L Y,Zhang X R,Zhang H,et al.2010.Principle and structure of CLUE-S model and its progresses.Geography and Geo-Information Science,26(3):73-77.]
王月健,丁武泉,谢付杰.2010.基于线性规划法的轮台县土地利用结构优化[J].安徽农业科学,38(9):4733-4734.[Wang Y J,Ding W Q,Xie F J.2010.Optimization on land use structure in Luntai County based on linear programing method.Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences,38(9):4733-4734.]
谢高地,张彩霞,张雷明,等.2015.基于单位面积价值当量因子的生态系统服务价值化方法改进[J].自然资源学报,30(8):1243-1254.[Xie G D,Zhang C X,Zhang L M,et al.2015.Improvement of the evaluation method for ecosystem service value based on per unit area.Journal of Natural Resources,30(8):1243-1254.]
许小亮,李鑫,肖长江,等.2016.基于CLUE-S模型的不同情景下区域土地利用布局优化[J].生态学报,36(17):5401-5410.[Xu X L,Li X,Xiao C J,et al.2016.Land use layout optimization under different scenarios by using the CLUE-S model.Acta Ecologica Sinica,36(17):5401-5410.]
叶浩,濮励杰.2010.苏州市土地利用变化对生态系统固碳能力影响研究[J].中国土地科学,24(3):60-64.[Ye H,Pu L J.2010.Study on the impact of land use change on the capability of carbon sequestration of ecosystem in Suzhou City.China Land Science,24(3):60-64.]
张鸿辉,曾永年,谭荣,等.2011.多智能体区域土地利用优化配置模型及其应用[J].地理学报,66(7):972-984.[Zhang H H,Zeng Y N,Tan R,et al.2011.A model for regional land use optimization allocation based on multiagent system and its application.Acta Geographica Sinica,66(7):972-984.]
张佳会,黄全富,王力.2001.最优线性规划法在土地利用总体规划中的应用[J].重庆师范大学学报(自然科学版),18(1):36-39.[Zhang J H,Wang Q F,Wang L.2001.The utilization of the optimum linear plan method in the masterplan of land utilization.Journal of Chongqing Normal University(Natural Science Edition),18(1):36-39.]
赵阳,张艺,涂志华,等.2014.基于生态服务价值的多目标水源地土地利用结构优化[J].中国环境科学,34(1):232-238.[Zhao Y,Zhang Y,Tu Z H,et al.2014.Multi-objective optimization of land use structures for water resources area based on eco-service value.China Environment Science,34(1):232-238.]
Blumstein M,Thompson J R.2015.Land-use impacts on the quantity and configuration of ecosystem service provisioning in Massachusetts,USA[J].Journal of Applied Ecology,52(8):1009-1019.
Verburg P H,Veldkamp A.2004.Projecting land use transitions at forest fringes in the Philippines at two spatial scales[J].Land scape Ecology,19(1):77-98.
Verburg P H,Veldkamp A,Dekoning G H J,et al.1999.A spatial explicit allocation procedure for modelling the pattern of land use change based upon actual land use[J].Ecological Modelling,116(1):45-61.